hassan harajli undp cedro project ecorient - june 7 th 2012
TRANSCRIPT
CEDRO’s Mapping of Renewable Energy in Lebanon; From roof‐tops to open fields
Hassan Harajli UNDP CEDRO Project
EcOrient - June 7th 2012
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Table of Contents
What has been done and/or assessed by CEDRO Mapping renewables through CEDRO
Was it enough and/or will it last; The legacy of CEDRO
What should be done next?
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1- Assessment of Large-scale RE Sources;
The main options?
Hydro
Wind Solar
Bioenergy
Geothermal
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1- WIND: Onshore and Offshore
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Onshore WIND Prospects
When all areas where wind farms cannot be developed are removed;
High population density Military areas Commercial interests (e.g. mining / fishing… Civilian aviation sites National parks and forests Historic sites …
Where wind speeds are greater than 6.5 m/s (@80 m hub height) Assuming an installation density of 8 MW/km2
Results;
Mean 6.1 GW Maximum 12 GW Min 1.5 GW
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Economics of wind
Av. LC (5% DR) Av. LC (10% DR) DR)
Benefits of wind power integration as factor of discount rate, fuel prices, and the social cost of carbon
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Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
CEDRO has completed a concise update on CSP technology. The document can be downloaded soon from CEDRO’s website
Proper solar resource assessment is being undertaken by RECREE (SolarMed) project for the region
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Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
Technical feasibility limit: 1800 kWh/m2/y
Economic feasibility limit: 2000 kWh/m2/y
The higher the Direct
Normal Irradiance (DNI),
the more power is
generated by a
particular technology
Direct Normal Irradiance
Solar CSP in Lebanon
Slope + Water + DNI
Potential is there, therefore CSP is a matter of financial viability!
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Levelized Electricity Costs
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€/k
Wh
LEC: levelised electricity costs (solar-only) LEC: levelised electricity costs (15% HYBRID)
Parabolic T roug hWIT H 7.5 h S torag e
Parabolic T roug hwithout S torag e
C entral R ec eiverWIT H 15 h S torag e
C entral R ec eiver~without S torag e
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PV Farms
Techno-economic study underway for PV farms in Lebanon (CEDRO) – expected publication date (August 2012)
Constraints;
Area; it’s estimated that (mean) 6.4 acres (25,900 m2) are required to generate 1 megawatt of electricity using PV panels. This equates to almost five football fields of area per megawatt of electricity generated (NREL).
Costs: Approximate $2,000,000/MW (Turnkey) excluding land rent (land rent = $5/m2 & 2.5% of capital cost for O&M).
Expected; Levelised cost = $c24 – 26/kWh
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Hydro-power from non-river sources
CEDRO is undertaking an assessment of hydro-power potential from non-river sources; Irrigation channels Water distribution networks Electrical power plants Water treatment plants
To date; 0.73 MW from irrigation (yet data availability a problem) 0.992 MW from water distribution (data a problem) 5.26 MW from power plants 0.123 MW from WWTP (data also an issue as is the entire WWTP sector) Total: 7.1 MW
TA
SK
1:
Resou
rce A
ssessm
en
t Type Ranking
Residues from fellings 1
Residues of olive trees2
Residues of fruit trees
Residues of cereals 3
Energy crops 4
Cake by-products 5
Waste wood 6
Municipal sewage sludge 7
Animal fat8
Slaughterhouse residues
Yellow grease 9
Landfill potential 10
Task
3. Futu
re s
cenari
os Energy use
Scenario I
Scenario II
Scenario III
Scenario IV
Primary energy (GWh) 6953 2354 517 1543
Final Energy
Electricity (GWh) 934 475 73 261
Electricity (MWe) 119 62 9 33
% of total (4000 MW) 3% 1.5% 0.23% 0.8%
Heat (ktoe) 131 78 14 39
% of total (347 ktoe in 2006) 37.7% 22.5% 4% 11.2%
Transport (ktoe) 271 28 14 39% of total (1511 ktoe in
2008) 18% 1.8% 1% 2.6%
Annual contribution of bioenergy to end-uses by year 2030
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Geothermal Power
TASKS
1 Geothermal Resource Assessment
2 Recoverable Resource Estimates
3 Required Drilling and Power Producing Technologies and their Economic Feasibility
4 Environmental Impacts of Geothermal Power Production
5 Barriers to Geothermal Power Development in Lebanon
April 2013
April 2012
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Mic
roge
nera
tion
u-CHP (e.g. Fuel cells) ASHP GSHP
Microwind PV SHW
‘Micro-generation’ can be defined as the production of electricity or heat from a low-carbon source, at capacities no more than 50kWe or 45kWth (UK definition).
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Microgeneration
Microwind PV SHW
• Most mature and cost-effective
• 300 litres; 1200 – 1500 USD
• Payback period; 2-5 years
• Expensive but costs reducing
• 1 kWp; 5,000-6,000 USD with storage
• 20-30 years
• Very location specific
• 1 kWp; 2,500-4,000 USD with storage
• 10-20 years
JEZZINE GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 3,000 Liters
HERMEL GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 4,000 Liters
TRIPOLI GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 12,000 Liters
SIBLINE GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 6,000 Liters
Keserween Public Hospital - 6,000 Liters
SAIDA GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 6,000 Liters (tanks)
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Photovoltaic system in Hosh-Oumara Community Center (Bekaa)UNDP-CEDRO
Khfour Public School (South) – 2 kWp
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The CEDRO LegacyThe importance of stirring the local market
The commercial maturity of new and renewable energy technologies relative to market penetration (Foxon et al. 2005)
CEDRO IMPACT (9.73 million USD)
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The CEDRO Impact; Market Creation and Employment
Expression of Interest (EOI);Lots (e.g.);
1- PV 2- SHW3- Energy efficiency
2008; PV; 10 firms applied, 7 passedSHW; 11 firms applied, 9 passedEE; 3 firms applied,3 passed
2010; PV; 27 firms applied, 13 passedSHW; 23 firms applied, 14 passedEE; 19 firms applied,7 passed(+ additional microwind Lot where 23 applied and 11 passed)
AppliedPassed
Applied Passed
2008
2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
PV
SHW
EE
PVSHW EE
Each of these companies employs between 15 – 50 + persons.
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The CEDRO Legacy
In brief;• CEDRO assisted in creating technical capacity building and
initiated markets for small-scale renewable energy, esp. photovoltaic systems and commercial SHW systems
• Shed light onto the renewable energy resources of the country, esp. wind, biomass, and geothermal.
• Created opportunities for local contractors and consultants, • Pushed forward the RE agenda by assisting in influencing
policies like net metering and how it can be applied technically
• Focused on awareness on RE for the young generation • Hopefully an overhauled and informative website
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What should be done next – small scale?
• Other technologies require market initiation, esp. bioenergy demonstration projects.
• Most importantly, market development policies are required… BACK TO THE S-Curve; – If the government of Lebanon does not introduce
bold measures to financially support renewables, CEDRO’s work (and others like it) will go to waste!
– Feed-in tariffs, even in a reduced form, must be assessed and introduced intelligently to take into account the current financial situation of the country, and how to subsidize this support while ensuring its’ effectiveness.
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For large-scale renewable; – Assessment of integration
and control into the national grid
– National Regulatory Authority or its alternative (NRA) – and capacity building for this Authority in licensing PPA
– We can’t wait 3 years after NRA is established!!!
What should be done next – large scale?
Please contact CEDRO at:
T/F: +961-1-981944E: [email protected], Maarad Street, Building 287B, 1st floor CEDRO_UNDP
Thank you