Have the Good Years Become the Bad Years

Richard Heath. Grower,Nuffield Scholar,

Gunnedah, NSW Australia.

Talk Outline

• Pine Cliff• Variable Climate

• Response to Dry Years• Response to Wet Years• The Way forward?

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 20000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200Pine Cliff Annual Rainfall

Annual Rainfall

• 205mm rain year to date• 5th Driest in 110 years• 69mm rain post sowing• 5th Driest in 110 years

Sorghum Yields• 30 Year Average 3.7 t/Ha• 10 Year Average 4.5 t/Ha• 5 Year Average 5.8 t/Ha

2010

1017 mm

• $600 Ha• $100 Ha Fungicides (in wheat)• Gross margin -$100 Ha• Bad, Bad Experience• 1 year in 10 over 800mms rain

• Controlled Traffic with zero till can have 183kg/Ha yield advantage over controlled traffic with stubble mulching.

• $40/Ha loss if $220/ton wheat.• Just spent $60/Ha on fungicides.• Downgrading losses.• Machinery wear and tear.• Easy decision BUT vital information

missing.

Llewellyn and D’Emdens 2009 survey.• 82% Using No Till.• 90% Have used.• Of those who have used no till 13%

reduced and 6% ceased.• 68% believe no till will lead to more

disease.• No problem with adoption.

Problem with retention.

Questions:What is the tipping point between cost and benefits?When you reach the tipping point what is the best management option?How quickly do the physical and biological properties of soil change?How do we keep the good years good?