haynesville global access pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/hgap... · 2019....
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbb1f0c035c461318252516/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
HGAP
Tellurian Midstream Group | April 2019
Haynesville Global Access Pipeline
![Page 2: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbb1f0c035c461318252516/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
SW Louisiana: core of US gas demand2025
Notes: LNG demand includes ambient capacity; Sources: company data, Drilling Info, Entergy, Tellurian estimates
2
L o u i s i a n aT e x a s
G u l f o f M e x i c o
Driftwood LNG
Cameron LNG
Sabine Pass LNG
+20 bcf/d of potential demand by 2023-25 includes: (1) Sabine Pass 1-6(2) Cameron LNG 1-5(3) Driftwood LNG(4) Golden Pass(5) Calcasieu Pass(6) Port Arthur LNG(7) Lake Charles(8) Magnolia (9) SASOL(10) Lake Charles CCGT(11) OCI Methanol/Ammonia(12) Exxon Beaumont
expansion
West
Inbound to SWLA (2019)
~11 bcf/d
HaynesvillePerryville/Delhi
Eunice/Station 85
Lake Charles, LA
SW Louisiana is the epicenter of US LNG growth• 11 bcf/d of expected pipeline
capacity not enough for +20 bcf/d of potential demand in 2025
• Need North/South infrastructure to connect supply to demand
Golden Pass LNG
![Page 3: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbb1f0c035c461318252516/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Corpus Christi T1-3Freeport T1-3
Sabine Pass T5-6Cameron T1-5
DriftwoodGolden Pass
CalcasieuPort Arthur
Elba Island
-
5
10
15
20
25
2017 2017-2025Growth
2025 2017 2017-2025Growth
2025 2017 2017-2025Growth
2025
Texas Louisiana Other Gulf Coast*
Sector demand growth 2017-2025 (bcf/d)IndustrialPowerLNG
*MS, AL, GA and FLSource: IHS-Markit (long-term outlook 2H 2018), LNG TELL Analysis; Golden Pass and Port Arthur included in LA due to connectivity
LNG dominates demand growthNo better market in the Southeast or US Gulf Coast than SW Louisiana
3
bcf/d
![Page 4: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbb1f0c035c461318252516/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Haynesville: a world class shale play…on the doorstep of US LNG demand
Source: Drilling Info; Haynesville wet gas produciton at $2.75/MMBtu Henry Hub price
4
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13
Jan-
14
Jan-
15
Jan-
16
Jan-
17
Jan-
18
Jan-
19
Jan-
20
Jan-
21
Jan-
22
Jan-
23
Jan-
24
Jan-
25
Jan-
26
Jan-
27
Jan-
28
Jan-
29
Jan-
30
mcf
/d
Arkla - Haynesville Haynesville North East Texas Arkla
![Page 5: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbb1f0c035c461318252516/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Haynesville production built to lastResilient in low gas price environment
Source; RS Energy
5
$1.14 $0.85 $1.04
$0.20 $0.59 $0.59
$0.27 $0.40
$0.38 $0.08
$0.23 $0.24
$0.62
$0.52 $0.63 $2.31
$2.59 $2.88
Haynesville Marcellus Utica
$/m
mBt
u
Competing play breakevens
Capex Operating Transportation Differentials Royalties and Severence
![Page 6: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbb1f0c035c461318252516/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Last mile problemDespite Haynesville’s position, the infrastructure doesn’t exist to bring it to market
Sources: ARI, Drilling Info
6
Carthage
Perryville
Transco St85
FGT Z3HSC
HHAD
441
Marcellus-Utica196
Permian
Anadarko
111
102
Eagle Ford
131Total selected basin shale production,bcf/d
Resource size, tcf
Marcellus pipelines: 7.7 bcf/d
Midship: 1.3 bcf/d
7.3
16.9
2017 2025
5.88.9
2017 2025
5.612.7
2017 2025
7.3 9.8
2017 2025
24.6
38.1
2017 2025Haynesville
50.6
86.4 35.8
2017 2025 Incrementalproduction
KMI: ~4.0 bcf/d
![Page 7: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbb1f0c035c461318252516/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Del
iver
y
Take
away
Del
iver
y
Take
away
Del
iver
y
Take
away
Del
iver
y
Take
away
Perryville Delhi Inverness Kosci
Shipper delivery vs. takeaway comparison (bcf/d)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Perryville Delhi Inverness Kosci Total NetImbalance
Net pipeline delivery/takeaway (bcf/d)
Market driven out of balanceA significant portion of Northeast pipeline capacity reversals do not reach end-user markets due to physical pipeline constraints
7
Market is looking for new infrastructure to solve the problem
Source: Informational postings on company EBB’s, PointLogic
![Page 8: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbb1f0c035c461318252516/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Perryville basis weakeningHaynesville production largely headed to Perryville/Delhi
Source: iCE, RS Energy
8
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
$(0.30)
$(0.25)
$(0.20)
$(0.15)
$(0.10)
$(0.05)
$-
Jan-
16
Feb-
16
Mar
-16
Apr
-16
May
-16
Jun-
16
Jul-1
6
Aug
-16
Sep-
16
Oct
-16
Nov
-16
Dec
-16
Jan-
17
Feb-
17
Mar
-17
Apr
-17
May
-17
Jun-
17
Jul-1
7
Aug
-17
Sep-
17
Oct
-17
Nov
-17
Dec
-17
Jan-
18
Feb-
18
Mar
-18
Apr
-18
May
-18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug
-18
Sep-
18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Jan-
19
Feb-
19
Mar
-19
Apr
-19
bcf
/d
$/m
mBt
u
Perryville Basis to HH Haynesville Production
![Page 9: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbb1f0c035c461318252516/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
The worst is yet to comeSouthbound capacity just starting to ramp up
Source: RS Energy Group
9
(8.0)
(6.0)
(4.0)
(2.0)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19
Cap
acity
and
Flo
w in
to N
orth
Lou
isia
na (b
cf/d
)
ANR CG Mainline NGPL TGP TGT Trunkline Total Southbound Capacity Annual Average Net Southbound Flows
![Page 10: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbb1f0c035c461318252516/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Other markets becoming less attractiveHouston Ship Channel rolling forward curve –Permian wave looming
Transco Station 85 rolling forward curve – Northeast volumes are coming
10
-$0.20
-$0.15
-$0.10
-$0.05
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
MA
Y 19
NO
V 1
9
MA
Y 20
NO
V 2
0
MA
Y 21
NO
V 2
1
MA
Y 22
NO
V 2
2
MA
Y 23
NO
V 2
3
$/m
mBt
u
52 WK Range Last 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year 2 Year
Source: Bloomberg, ICE
-$0.08
-$0.07
-$0.06
-$0.05
-$0.04
-$0.03
-$0.02
-$0.01
$0.00
MA
Y 19
AUG
19
NO
V 1
9
FEB
20
MA
Y 20
AUG
20
NO
V 2
0
FEB
21
MA
Y 21
AUG
21
NO
V 2
1
FEB
22
MA
Y 22
AUG
22
NO
V 2
2
FEB
23
MA
Y 23
AUG
23
NO
V 2
3
$/m
mBt
u
52 WK Range Last 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year 2 Year
![Page 11: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbb1f0c035c461318252516/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Louisiana gas flows and basis - 2023RBN Energy Haynesville S&D (bcf/d):
Production: 9.6Demand: 0.5 Net Outflows: 9.1
South Louisiana S&D (bcf/d):Production: 2.6Demand: 4.1 Net Inflows: 1.5Imbalance -0.8-$0.45
2.2
7.9
1.7
0.6
1.9 8.7
1.5
*Haynesville, Bossier, Cotton Valley (Terryville)
Perryville S&D (bcf/d):Production: 0.0Demand: 0.2 Net Inflows: 0.2
3.9
5.5-$0.40
TCO-$0.62
Haynesville*East Texas Transco St 85
Perryville
South LA
Katy/Ship
![Page 12: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbb1f0c035c461318252516/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
HGAPMap & Terms
![Page 13: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbb1f0c035c461318252516/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
HGAP route
13
![Page 14: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbb1f0c035c461318252516/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
HGAP anticipated receipts
14
Note: Actual meter size/location to be determined after the open season closes, PGAP determines the shippers’ desired receipts and verifies the interconnect with third-party pipeline.
![Page 15: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbb1f0c035c461318252516/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
HGAP anticipated deliveries
Note: Actual meter size/location to be determined after the open season closes, PGAP determines the shippers’ desired deliveries and verifies the interconnect with third-party pipeline.
15
![Page 16: Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbb1f0c035c461318252516/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Thank you