Session 01*Hazard Risk ManagementEstablish the Context

ObjectivesStakeholdersCriteriaDefine key elementsIdentify the Risks

Hazards analysis

Vulnerability analysisAnalyze the Risks

Review controlsLikelihoodsConsequencesLevel of riskEvaluate the Risks

Evaluate risksRank RisksTreat the Risks

Identify optionsSelect the best responsesDevelop risk treatment planImplementCommunicate and ConsultMonitor and ReviewEmergency Management Australia, 2002. Emergency Risk Management

Session 01

Session 01*Stan Kaplans Theorems of CommunicationFrom the plenary Address at the 1996 Meeting Society for Risk AnalysisTheorem 1: 50% of the problems in the world result from people using the same words with different meanings.

Theorem 2: The other 50% comes from people using different words with the same meaning.

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Session 01*Meanings of the word RISKRISKColloquialDangerVentureOpportunityTechnicalHazardProbabilityConsequenceInsuranceChanceUncertaintyJardine and Hrudley, 1997. Mixed Messages in Risk Communication

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Session 01*Etymology of RISKThe Arabic word risq - anything that has been given to you [by God] and from which you draw profit.

The Latin word risicum - maritime term, described the scenario faced by sailors attempting to circumvent dangers posed by a barrier reef.From F. Wharton, Risk Management: Basic Concepts and General Principles

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Session 01*RISKThe product of a hazards likelihood of occurrence and its consequences to society.RISK = LIKELIHOOD X CONSEQUENCE

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Session 01*HAZARDSEvents or physical conditions that have the potential to cause fatalities, injuries, property damage, infrastructure damage, agricultural loss, damage to the environment, interruption of business, or other types of harm or loss. - FEMA, 1997FEMA. 1997. Multi Hazard Identification and Assessment. FEMA. Washington, D.C.

Session 01

Session 01*What makes something a hazard?If a storm occurs at sea, in an area of no shipping traffic and where there are no land masses, is it a hazard?

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Session 01*DISASTERA serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material, or environmental losses which exceed the ability of affected society to cope using only its own resources - The United Nations, 1992United Nations, Department of Humanitarian Affairs. 1992. Internationally Agreed Glossary of Basic Terms Related to Disaster Management. (DNA/93/36). United Nations. Geneva.

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Session 01*Is it a DISASTER?House fire in Newark, NJ - the house is destroyed, but there are no injuries.Brush fire in Arizona - results in the burning of 100,000 acres of unoccupied land, 5 firefighters need to be admitted to the hospital for various injuries. The fire is finally extinguished by members of more than 10 fire departments.The Great Chicago Fire of 1871 - the destruction included 28 miles of roads, 120 miles of sidewalk, 2000 lampposts, 18,000 buildings, totaling over $200 million in property damage (1/3 of the value of all property in the city at the time). 200-300 people died.

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Session 01*Terms Describing EVENTSAccidentsIncidentsDisturbancesEmergenciesCrisesTragediesCatastrophesCalamitiesDisasters

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Session 01*Sample Linear Taxonomy of Event TerminologyAn Incident is considered to be minor situation;

An Emergency a more serious situation;

A Disaster a yet more serious situation; and

A Catastrophe the most serious situation of all.

Renee Pearce, L.D. 2000. An Integrated Approach For Community Hazard, Impact, Risk and Vulnerability Analysis: HIRV. Excerpt, Doctoral Dissertation, University of British Columbia.

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Session 01*VULNERABILITYThe degree of susceptibility and resilience of the community and environment to hazards. - Emergency Management Australia, 2000Emergency Management Australia. 2000. Emergency Risk Management

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Session 01*What is the difference?Preparedness Those activities, programs, and systems that exist prior to an emergency that are used to support and enhance response to an emergency or disaster.

Mitigation Any action taken to eliminate or reduce the long-term risk to human life and property from hazards.

Preparedness: FEMA. 1992. Federal Response Plan; With Revisions. FEMA.Mitigation: FEMA. 1999. The Professional in Emergency Management (IS-513). Emergency Management Institute. Emmitsburg, MD.

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Session 01*SAFEA risk becomes safe, or acceptable, if it is associated with the best of the available alternatives, not with the best of the alternatives which we would hope to have available.Do you agree or disagree?Derby, S. L., and R. L. Keeney. 1981. Risk Analysis: Understanding How Safe is Safe Enough. Risk Analysis. 1:217-224.

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Session 01*How safe is safe enough?Zero risk per person?1 in a million risk per person?1 in 100,000 risk per person?1 in 10,000 risk per person?IT DEPENDS!

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Session 01*Some Odds of DeathHazardAnnual RiskLifetime RiskCar Accident1/18,7521/244Accidental Fall1/20,7281/270Accidental Poisoning1/22,3881/292Murdered With a Gun1/25,1961/328Hit by Car While Walking1/45,1171/588Drowning (Accidental)1/77,3081/1,008Fire/Smoke Inhalation1/81,4871/1,062Lightning1/ 4,262,8131/55,578

Memmott, Mark. 2002. Fear may be overwhelming, but so are the odds. USA Today. October 18. p.6A

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Session 01*ProbabilityClassical: Probability of getting 2 heads in 3 flips of a coin

Subjective: Probability of Puerto Rico becoming a state in the next 20 years

Frequency: Probability of a person getting in a car accident while talking on their cell phone, over a 1-year periodJardine and Hrudley, 1997. Mixed Messages in Risk Communication

Session 01

Session 01*Hazard Risk ManagementEstablish the Context

ObjectivesStakeholdersCriteriaDefine key elementsIdentify the Risks

Hazards analysis

Vulnerability analysisAnalyze the Risks

Review controlsLikelihoodsConsequencesLevel of riskEvaluate the Risks

Evaluate risksRank RisksTreat the Risks

Identify optionsSelect the best responsesDevelop risk treatment planImplementCommunicate and ConsultMonitor and ReviewEmergency Management Australia, 2002. Emergency Risk Management

Session 01

Session 01*Disaster Management CycleMitigationPreparednessResponseRecovery

Session 01

Session 01*Disaster Resistant CommunitiesEstablish a Community Partnership

Identify and Assess Community Risks

Mitigation

Generate Community Support

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Session 01*Sustainable CommunitiesDisaster ResilienceDevelopment

Session 01

Session 01*Risk PerceptionDefinitionPerceived RiskPersonal Experience

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Session 01*Risk CommunicationTechnical DataMessagesCommunity PartnershipsConsensus Building

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