Hazard Mapping

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<p>HAZARD MAPPING AND RISK ASSESSMENTLinda Noson, Principal, Linda Noson Associates Key Words: Hazard, Mapping, Risk Assessment, Risk ManagementABSTRACT This working paper provides a conceptual and theoretical background for the Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment theme. The Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment theme provides guidance to help those in authority address the affects of natural, technological, and human hazards on a communitys vision for the future. Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment are essential to understanding and addressing risks that can interfere with a communitys ability to achieve that vision. The working paper provides sample initiatives and case histories to support and facilitate this theme. 1.0 Introduction</p> <p>Working Paper Outline The following provides a brief description of each section included in this paper: Section 1: An Introduction to the Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment theme, including an outline of the working paper, basic definitions, a description of approaches and methodologies based on different hazard types, and an overview of hazard mapping and risk assessment initiatives at city level in Asia based on a multi-hazard scenario. The Importance of Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment in the establishment of a sustainable, effective community risk management program. Identification and discussion of the essential elements involved in Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment, including stakeholder support and involvement, identification of target risk management outcomes, balancing desired outcomes against data quality, data resolution, establishing risk indicators and cost constraints to determine if sufficient to achieve desired effect, etc. Identification and discussion of issues from which to extract lessons learned that can be used to strengthen Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment projects Case Studies to demonstrate the application of Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment to managing community risk and to identify elements included</p> <p>Section 2: Section 3:</p> <p>Section 4: Section 5:</p> <p>Introduction to Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment Theme Risk management provides a comprehensive approach for developing and implementing sustainable and effective risk policies and interventions to manage the adverse effects of accidental losses, such as those related to natural hazard impacts, and of business losses, such as speculative annexation of property. Risk management consists of both a management process and a decision-making process. The traditional elements of management planning, organizing, leading, and controlling are applied to each of the five steps of the risk management decision-making process (from Essentials of Risk Management): (1) Identify and Analyze Loss Exposures; (2) Examine Alternative Risk Management Techniques; (3) Select Risk Management Techniques; (4) Implement techniques; and (5) Monitor Results. Table 1 shows each of the workshop themes within the corresponding step in the risk management process. Decision-Making Process: The Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment theme is the first step of the risk management decision-making process in which potential loss exposures are identified and analyzed.</p> <p>Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment</p> <p>This step focuses on the three elements that together define the risk (e.g. identify loss exposures): (1) the probability of a hazard occurring, (2) the values exposed to potential hazard impacts, and (3) the vulnerability of the values exposed to the hazard. These risks are then analyzed for their potential to prevent the organization from achieving specifically defined goals and objectives. Only those risks capable of preventing the organization from successfully accomplishing their goals and objectives are considered significant. Hazard mapping is one of a number of tools for combining and displaying risk information. Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment forms the foundation of the risk management decision-making process by providing information essential to understanding the nature of the communitys risk. This first step in the risk management process seeks to answer the question What risks potentially interfere with the communitys ability to meet the goals and objectives defining the communitys vision for the future. Based on the information from this theme, the risk manager can: (1) identify risk management strategies (doing the right things to manage risk consistent with the communitys vision); (2) identify operating strategies (doing the right things in the right way to control risk); (3) identify financial strategies (providing funds in the amounts and at the times necessary to finance recovery); and (4) evaluate the effectiveness of the comprehensive community risk management program (identify indicators of risk against which to measures success). Table 1. Steps in the Risk Management Process Step One Risk Management Process Identifying and Analyzing Loss Exposures Examine Alternative Risk Management Techniques Select Risk Management Techniques Theme 3 1 2 2 2 4 Four Implement Techniques 5 6 7 8 Five Monitor Results Theme Description Policy, Institutional, and Legal Arrangements Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment Mitigation Planning and Implementation Mitigation Planning and Implementation Mitigation Planning and Implementation Public Awareness and Social Marketing Capacity Building Promoting Safer Building Construction Community Based Approaches to Disaster Mitigation Climate Applications and Preparedness</p> <p>Two Three</p> <p>Management Process: The four management tasks are applied to each step in the risk management decision process as show on Table 2 for the Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment Theme. Table 2 shows the elements and activities associated with each task. Table 2. Management Tasks in the Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment Theme Step One: Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment (Identifying and Analyzing Loss Exposures) Tasks Elements Activities International, national, district, division, province, city, village, etc Study Region Establish boundaries for comparing variations in risk Program Municipality Owner</p> <p>70 PLAN</p> <p>Regional Workshop on Best Practices in Disaster Mitigation</p> <p>Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment</p> <p>Program Manager</p> <p>Program Policy ORGANIZE Authority, Responsibility Data Collection Team Data Collection Standards Training Exercise Monitor</p> <p>Obtains commitment of City Officials Plans, organizes, leads and controls the Risk Management program Ensures all four management tasks are carried out for each step in the decision-making process Establishes schedule for updating information Estimates and budgets for cost of obtaining information Prepares a program blue print that outlines tasks, responsibilities, budgets, etc. This may be multi-phased. Establishes a Municipal Planning Team o Identifies risk management goals and objectives based on City policy statements, City services, plans, legislation, focus groups, interviews, historic events, etc. o Identifies sources of data necessary to define potential risks capable of obstructing goals and objectives o Sets meeting times and locations Establishes a Stakeholders Group involving individuals, organizations, technical experts, etc. capable of helping the municipality with the risk management program Uses municipal goals, objectives, and available resources to determine the types and format of information to be collected Establishes the commitment of City Officials to risk management Provides guiding principles based on the steps taken above Obtain authority to gather desired information Prepare data collection procedures and instructions Determine who will report to whom organizations, or agencies will be responsible for providing information Provide data collection instructions Follow-up with those who will be doing the data collection Establish standards for data quality and data collection timeliness Compare actual data collected against standards Correct and improve poor data as possible Provide specialized training to assist in data collection, such as interview techniques, mapping, GIS, etc. Practice collection process, e.g. small pilot study Document and Follow-up with each activity Analyze significance of data collected (risk assessment) Review and revise data collection process as necessary Prepare results for use in Step Two (Identify and Examine Feasibility of Risk Management Techniques)</p> <p> Meet with the managers, technical advisors, etc., whose departments,</p> <p>LEAD</p> <p>CONTROL</p> <p>Basic Definitions The terms hazard, hazard assessment, hazard mapping, risk, risk assessment and many other risk management concepts have been used interchangeably to mean different things and have been used differently to mean the same thing. This blurring of meanings makes it necessary to provide working definitions for the terms and concepts as they are used in this working paper. One must be sure to understand the authors definition of these words when using various reports and publications pertaining to risk management, hazard management, etc. The following are definitions of words commonly used in risk management programs. Risk Management: Risk management is both an administrative and decision-making process for addressing the potential adverse effects of accidental and business losses on an organizations capability to accomplish business goals and objectives. Risk management focuses on managing potential losses capable of interfering with the service goals and objectives of non-profit organizations.</p> <p>Regional Workshop on Best Practices in Disaster Mitigation</p> <p>71</p> <p>Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment</p> <p>Accidental Losses: Accidental losses include those from unintended impacts, which were not intentionally caused by the organization or community that sustained the loss. While accidental losses are sometimes restricted to mean only those that produce either a loss or no loss (pure risk), a broader meaning includes the adverse effects of any unplanned event. In this broader meaning, losses related to earthquakes, fires, injuries, liability claims, etc are referred to as casualty risks or hazard risks. The other accidental loss categories include: liquidity risks, market risks, political risks, and technological risk (failure to keep pace). The working paper will focus on accidental losses related to hazard risks. It is important to note that often hazard risks are a small part of a communitys potential loss exposure. Business Losses: Business losses include losses related to speculative decisions. These decisions may have one of three possible outcomes: gain, loss, and no gain or loss as apposed to accidental losses which result in either a loss or no loss. In a non-profit organization, the possible business outcomes include budge surpluses, shortfalls (with a corresponding inability to provide services), and budget neutrality. Business decisions provide the context within which accidental losses are assessed and managed. As an example, a Boeing Executive stated that Boeing is in the business of making airplanes. In as much as a hazard mitigation measure can be shown to help Boeing achieve that goal, then it would be considered a positive step. Similarly, if a mitigation measure cannot be shown to help Boeing achieve their business goals, then that measure is not considered cost effective regardless of the cost. Comprehensive Risk Management: A Comprehensive Risk Management program would address both accidental and business losses. This integrated approach to risk management shifts the focus to an organizations overall capacity to cope with losses, regardless of whether those losses stem from fires, lawsuits, or poor business decisions This shift underscores the necessity of managing accidental losses within the context of business (e.g. community) goals and objectives and applies greater emphasis on the administrative/management issues involved in making risk management decisions Consequences: The property, personnel, income, and legal losses resulting from the impact of a hazard on the community values exposed to potential loss. The consequences may be described subjectively using terms such as very high chance of disruption or mathematically such as one in a million chances of damage or a 2% probability of extensive damage, etc. Consequences are the outcome of the impact of a potential hazard on the combination of a specific exposure and its associated vulnerability(s). Exposures: The types of values at risk, including (1) property, (2) personnel, (3) net income, and (4) liability (duty to others). Liability includes legal obligations to comply with worker safety regulations, provide employee benefits, comply with environmental regulations, and other legal requirements, such as local ordinances. Liability as used in the working paper refers to the organizations duty to others as established by policy, law, custom, community values, or other real or perceived duties owed to the community. Note that exposures are specific to an individual, organization, or business. For example, community property exposures include all buildings, land, furnishings, and equipment, etc. owned by the community. It does not include property owned by individuals or national governments. However, the community may be obligated by law to protect non-community owned property from fire, vandalism, etc. Community owned property used to fight a fire would be exposed to potential losses. So would personnel (fire fighters), income (emergency budgets), and liability (law suits related to performance). It is essential in assessing risk to determine who owns the risk. Event/Incident:. An instance or occurrence of a particular hazard. One event may include a number of different hazards (e.g. an earthquake may generate a tsunami, a landslide and a fire. (B.C Hazard, Risk and Vulnerability Analysis 1993) Hazard Mapping: Hazard mapping is the process of identifying and displaying the spatial variation of hazard events or physical conditions (e.g. potential ground shaking, steep slopes, flood plains, hazardous materials sites, climate zones, etc). Important variables involved in mapping hazards and interpreting hazard maps include the size (scale) of the area to be mapped, the availability and completeness of data, the cost of collecting and mapping data, etc. Hazard Assessment:. The probability or chance of an event occurring in a particular area based on geological evidence, historical data, and projections derived from theoretical analysis. Some hazard assessment results can be mapped, such as potential frequency and severity of ground shaking.</p> <p>72</p> <p>Regional Workshop on Best Practices in Disaster Mitigation</p> <p>Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment</p> <p>Mitigation: Actions taken to eliminate, prevent, or strengthen community exposures to achieve target risk levels. Occurrence of a hazard tests the effectiveness of mitigation measures to improve performance and lower damage, injuries, and/or fina...</p>

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