hbj capital's newsletter (indian stock market) - transitions from bear markets to bull markets

8/14/2019 HBJ Capital's Newsletter (Indian Stock Market) - Transitions From Bear Markets to Bull Markets

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But dont expect even a new monetary system to put the U.S. or the global economy back on

track toward the high rates of real growth that weve seen over the last several years.Thats simply not going to happen. But this is at least a right & fundamental approach tosolve this problem.

Best investment now would be #1. Gold, #2. Natural Resources related stocks & #3. Robustportfolio with consumption & infrastructure related stocks for long term.

Not to forget that we are primarily a domestic economy focused nation. Our fundamentalsare good. Our productivity is improving. Yes, we had a huge stock market fall, but thatwas because we are all linked in some sense - we have 25% of market capitalization heldby foreign institutional investors and when they see uncertainties in their countries theydramatically want to pullout as much as possible from foreign countries.We do thinkthat things will get back to normalcy, get back to buoyancy quicker in India than in most

of the countries thats what we feel.

Wish you all the best.

Head, Equity Research & Investment, HBJ Capital, India

Contd.Contd.


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Not covered in this report?1. Origin/history of credit/financial/structural crisis.2. Any political event before G20 meet (Nov08).3. No story talk like how/why/where/when of current market mayhem.

Contents.Contents.

Focus will be on What Next & How to create wealth outof current structural crisis?

1. Are we close to the bottom of current financial crisis?2. G-20 Leaders : Pushing for global reforms; will they succeed?3. Hidden agenda for G20 summit Amid the rubble of global finance,

a blueprint for Bretton Woods II.4. History repeats, when Economy changes? Do you really think, it is

going to work out?5. What should be our next step irrespective of whether such debt

solution works out or not?6. Is India positioned well compare to other world economies for equity

investment?

7. HBJ Team recommends 6 best stocks for long termwealth creation.

8. How HBJ Capital can help in creating wealth for long run?


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Dear HBJ Team, Will you be able toDear HBJ Team, Will you be able to

give us a glimpse on where we aregive us a glimpse on where we arenow in this structural crisis?now in this structural crisis?


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We are almost near the bottom of bearWe are almost near the bottom of bearmarket Build your portfolio NOW!!!market Build your portfolio NOW!!!


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G-20 Leaders : Pushing for globalG-20 Leaders : Pushing for globalreforms; will they succeed?reforms; will they succeed?


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G-20 Summit What is this?G-20 Summit What is this? Leaders from the world's top 20

economies are gathering in the UScapital, Washington DC, in the latestattempt to combat the global financialcrisis.

The two-day summit will focus on how todeal with the global economic downturnand aim to develop long-term reforms to

prevent the crisis from turning into aprolonged worldwide recession ordepression.

In some circles this is being billed asBretton Woods IIa historicopportunity to rewrite the rules of the

international financial architecture,spurred by the most serious globalfinancial crisis since the GreatDepression.

The G20 hopes to sign off on the new setof regulations by the end of the summit.


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G-20 meeting:A far more fundamental fixes to the financialsystem and regulatory reforms for banks, hedge funds,brokers, mortgage companies and investment banks willbe discussed which will help in recovery of worldeconomy!!!


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G20 controls 90% of world GDP.G20 controls 90% of world GDP. G20, which represents 90

percent of the planet's wealthand two-thirds of itspopulation.

The G20 encompasses the

Group of Seven countries --Britain, Canada, France,Germany, Italy, Japan and theUnited States -- and 12 othercountries: Argentina, Australia,Brazil China, India, Indonesia,Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia,South Africa, South Korea and

Turkey. The 27-nation EU isalso a member.

This weekend's talks arealready shaping up to be ameeting of historicproportions, as all heads ofstate from the G-20 willconvene for the first time.


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Do you think G-20 leaders will arrive atDo you think G-20 leaders will arrive at

any fundamental fix for global economyany fundamental fix for global economyto recover from current financial/to recover from current financial/structured crisis?structured crisis?


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Open agenda for G20 summit.Open agenda for G20 summit. G20 summit is launch of a process rather than finding a final

solution to deal with the global financial crisis. Outcome will be to regulating hedge funds and boosting

transparency of some of the complicated mortgage-relatedsecurities created by financial firms, which have beenblamed for sparking the current financial crisis.

Create new market for credit default swaps: One area

certain to go under the regulatory knife could very wellbe the whopping credit default swap market.

Accounting rules: Current mark-to-market accountingstandards have caused billions of dollars in losses byforcing banks to report artificially low values for assetson their balance sheets.

Global regulation; more power for the IMF: Actions

should be taken regarding credit rating agencies as wellas the likelihood of any further economic stimulus.

Finance ministers have been given a deadline of March 31 tohammer out the specifics, followed by another summit of theG20 leaders at a later date, according to the draft. The nextsummit is most likely to be held in London.


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History repeats, when Economy changes?History repeats, when Economy changes?

1944 Bretton Woods Agreement1944 Bretton Woods Agreement1971 - The "Nixon Shock1971 - The "Nixon Shock2008 Bretton Woods II???2008 Bretton Woods II???


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1944 Bretton Woods accord that set the basis for the1944 Bretton Woods accord that set the basis for theworld's financial system after World War II.world's financial system after World War II. In the summer of 1944, delegates from 44 countries met in the midst of

World War II to reshape the world's international financial system.

The location of the meeting - in the plush Mount Washington Hotel in ruralBretton Woods, New Hampshire - was designed to ensure that the delegates

would have no distractions, and no pressure from lobbyists or Congressmen,as they worked on their plans for post-war reconstruction.

The meeting was born out of the determination by US President Franklin DRoosevelt and UK Prime Minister Winston Churchill to ensure post-war

prosperity through economic co-operation, avoiding the economic conflictsbetween countries in the 1930s that they believed contributed to the drift towar.

The meeting was part of the process led by the US to create a newinternational world order based on the rule of law, which also led to thecreation of the United Nations and the strengthening of other internationalorganizations.

The chief features of the Bretton Woods system were an obligation for eachcountry to adopt a monetary policy that maintained the exchange rate of itscurrency within a fixed valueplus or minus one percentin terms of goldand the ability of the IMF to bridge temporary imbalances of payments.

In the face of increasing strain, the system collapsed in 1971, following theUnited States' suspension of convertibility from dollars to gold. This createdthe unique situation whereby the United States dollar became the "reservecurrency" for the nation-states which had signed the agreement.


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The Bretton Woods system of fixedThe Bretton Woods system of fixedexchange ratesexchange rates

The delegates focused on two key issues: how toestablish a stable system of exchange rates, andhow to pay for rebuilding the war-damagedeconomies of Europe.

Bretton Woods established a system of rules,institutions, and procedures to regulate the

international monetary system. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) as set upto enforce a set of fixed exchange rates that werelinked to the dollar.

International Trade Organization was designed toencourage free trade.

International Bank for Reconstruction andDevelopment (IBRD) (now one of five institutions inthe World Bank Group).

The Bretton Woods system gave the UScurrency - which was linked to gold - thedominant position in the world economy andallowed the US to run a trade deficit withouthaving to devalue.


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How $ became powerful after 1944How $ became powerful after 1944Bretton Woods.Bretton Woods.

All the countries were required to establish aparity of their national currencies in terms ofgold (a "peg") and to maintain exchangerates within plus or minus 1% of parity (a"band") by intervening in their foreignexchange markets (that is, buying or sellingforeign money).

In practice, however, since the principal"Reserve currency" would be the U.S. dollar,this meant that other countries would pegtheir currencies to the U.S. dollar, andonceconvertibility was restoredwould buy andsell U.S. dollars to keep market exchangerates within plus or minus 1% of parity.

Thus, the U.S. dollar took over the rolethat gold had played under the goldstandard in the international financialsystem. Meanwhile, in order to bolster faithin the dollar, the U.S. agreed separately tolink the dollar to gold at the rate of $35

per ounce of gold.

Bretton Woods established a system ofpayments based on the dollar, in which allcurrencies were defined in relation to thedollar, itself convertible into gold, and aboveall, "as good as gold".

The U.S. currency was now effectively theworld currency, the standard to which everyother currency was pegged. As the world'skey currency, most international transactionswere denominated in dollars.

The U.S. dollar was the currency with themost purchasing power and it was theonly currency that was backed by gold.

Additionally, all European nations that hadbeen involved in World War II were highly in

debt and transferred large amounts of goldinto the United States, a fact thatcontributed to the supremacy of the UnitedStates.

Thus, the U.S. dollar was stronglyappreciated in the rest of the world andtherefore became the key currency of the

Bretton Woods system.


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Then came "Nixon Shock in 1971Then came "Nixon Shock in 1971The term Nixon Shock is used to refer to two

different policy measures taken by U.S. PresidentRichard Nixon in 1971 and 1972.

In 1971 Nixon unilaterally cancelled theBretton Woods system and stopped thedirect convertibility of the United Statesdollar to gold.

The second shock was the 1972 Nixon visit toChina that brought a surprising new twist toCold War diplomacy.

By the early 1970s, as the Vietnam War acceleratedinflation, the United States as a whole began runninga trade deficit (for the first time in the twentieth

century).

The crucial turning point was 1970, which saw U.S.gold coverage deteriorate from 55% to 22%. This, inthe view of neoclassical economists, represented thepoint where holders of the dollar had lost faith in theability of the U.S. to cut budget and trade deficits.

In 1971 more and more dollars were beingprinted in Washington, then being pumped

overseas, to pay for governmentexpenditure on the military and socialprograms.

Revaluation of major currencies tookplace, which were henceforth allowed 2.25%devaluations from the agreed exchange

rate.


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Amid the rubble of global finance, aAmid the rubble of global finance, ablueprint for Bretton Woods II.blueprint for Bretton Woods II.


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De-value currencies to inflate asset prices.De-value currencies to inflate asset prices. A new financial order that includes new

monetary units that helps to wipe clean the

worlds debt ledgers.

To end the Great Depression in 1933 Franklin Rooseveltdevalued the dollar, confiscating gold and raising itsprice 69.3%, effectively kick starting asset inflation.

Only this time, it wont be just the U.S. that devalues itscurrency. The world is too interconnected. Instead, the

worlds leading countries will propose a simultaneous

and universal currency devaluation.

And this time, instead of staying with the dollar as areserve currency, the G-20 issues three new monetaryunits of exchange, each with equal reserve status.

The three currencies will essentially be a new dollar, neweuro, and a new pan-Asian currency. (The Chinese Yuanmay survive as a fourth currency, but it will be linked to abasket of the three new currencies.)

The new fiat monetary units would be worth less than theold ones. For instance, it could take 10 new units ofmoney to buy 1 old dollar or euro.

Create Xnumber ofnew dollar,new euro,new pan-

Asiancurrency for

each old

currencies .


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The design and transition to a newThe design and transition to a newmonetary system monetary system

A new fixed-rate currency regime. Immediately upon upping theprice of gold and introducing the new currencies, a new fixedexchange rate system would be re-introduced. The floatingexchange rate system would be tossed into the dust bin alongwith the old currencies. This would kill any speculation about further devaluations in the currency markets, and

drastically reduce market volatility.

Additional programs would be designed to protect lenders andcreditors. Lenders stand a much higher chance of getting paidoff under the new monetary system but with a currencywhose purchasing power would now be a fraction of what it waswhen the loans were originated. So programs would have to be designed to help lenders offset the inflationary costs of

their devalued loans, probably via the tax code.

This gives you a big-picture outline of what the plan could looklike. And I think major changes like these are going to be set inmotion at this weekends G-20 meetings in Washington.

The next G20 meeting is scheduled for April 30 2009,provisionally with London as a possible venue.

New names would be givento the new currencies tohelp rid the world of theghost of a system thatfailed. Additionalregulations and programs

would be designed andimplemented to ease thetransition to a newmonetary system.

The International MonetaryFund (IMF) wouldimplement the newfinancial system inconjunction with centralbanks and governmentsaround the world.

Keep in mind that the IMF

is already set up to handlethe transition, and has hadcontingency plans allowingfor it since the institution

was formed in 1944.


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Do you really think, it is going toDo you really think, it is going towork out?work out?


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Answer is both Yes (for long run) & No (forAnswer is both Yes (for long run) & No (forshort term)!!!short term)!!!

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How long it will take to complete this?How long it will take to complete this?


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What should we do to prepare for theseWhat should we do to prepare for thesepossibilities?possibilities? Gold: Make sure you own some core

gold, as much as 25% of yourinvestable funds. In case of de-

valuation of currency gold prices willshoot up.

Natural Resources related stocks -A rising consumer class in China iscreating intense demand for naturalresources.

Robust portfolio for long termwith 10in3 stocks -All the stocksreco as 10in3 by HBJ Capital aremid/small cap leaders with massivepotential to return 10x return in 3

years!!!


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Is India positioned well compare toIs India positioned well compare to

other world economies forother world economies forinvestment?investment?


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India has right mix of GDP, Inflation & InterestIndia has right mix of GDP, Inflation & Interest

Rate compare to other economies.Rate compare to other economies.

India is better placed than any of the leading economies of the world to recover from the mess that theworld economy has got into because of a very simple reason. We are primarily a domestic economy focused nation. Our fundamentals are good. Our productivity is improving. Yes, we had a hu ge stock market fall, but that was because we are all linked in some sense - we have 25% of market

capitalization held by foreign institutional investors and when they see uncertainties in their countries they dramaticallywant to pullout as much as possible from foreign countries.

We do think that things will get back to normalcy, get back to buoyancy quicker in India than in most of the countries thats what we feel.

Indias concerns at the Group of 20 (G-20) developed and emerging nations would be three-fold. One, the global financial system must become more inclusive; Two, growth of the developing economies must be protected and, Three, the leading economies of the world must guard against protectionist tendencies.


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Could you pls let us know bestCould you pls let us know best

companies available for investmentcompanies available for investmentfrom Consumption & Infrastructure.from Consumption & Infrastructure.


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Look @ Big Picture Keep it in sightLook @ Big Picture Keep it in sight The attractiveness of Indian equities to equity investors has

revolved around Indias bottom-up story.

A combination of breadth of sectors and companies,

Good quality flexible corporate managements.

Good corporate governance by emerging markets standards.

A sustainable long-term story built upon -

Improving demographic profile of its population.

Large investments required for building and upgrading physicalinfrastructure.

Attractive destination as an off-shoring centre.

Gradually rising income levels supporting increasedconsumption.

A functional democracy, a stable legal & regulatory framework,an independent judiciary and freedom of press & media areother key factors which differentiates India from various otherEmerging Economies, e.g. Russia, China.

Company in Focus (Consumer Loan) :Indiabulls Financial Services.


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Long Term Structural Growth Drivers Consumption, &Long Term Structural Growth Drivers Consumption, &

Infrastructure.Infrastructure. The worlds second fastest growing economy.

Potentially attractive age and incomedemographics.

Strong Consumption Growth drivers. One of the most evolved financial frameworks

in Emerging Markets Emerging intellectual capital. Huge leverage

for Indian outsourcing across a complete range

of industries.

Company in Focus (Consumption -Retail) : PANTALOON RETAIL

Company in Focus (Consumption -Education) : EDUCOMP SOLUTION


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Planned Infrastructure DevelopmentPlanned Infrastructure Development

Infrastructure developments (E.g.: Roads, Power,Rail, Airport, Ports etc) are strong investmentgrowth drivers.

Stronger FDI inflows expected in future.

Unfolding Capex & Investment cycle

Under ownership of equity assets will lead tohigher allocations in future as savings ratesunwind.

Company in Focus(Infrastructure - Ports) :Mundra Port and Special

Economic Zone Limited(MPSEZ


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Focus more on Value Added Services.Focus more on Value Added Services.

Energy Sector will attract maximuminvestment in near future. More thangeneration/distribution of electricity oneshould focus on value added players.

Per capita consumption of electricity is 1/20th

compare to developed nations. Due to increase in Telecom players in the

domestic market, one must focus on telecomvalue added service providers.

In India VAS in telecom contributes only 7%of the revenue per user as compare to 25-30%in other emerging economies & developednations.

Company in Focus (Power ValueAdd) : ICSA

Company in Focus (Telecom ValueAdd) : TANLA SOLUTIONS


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How HBJ Capital can help in creatingHow HBJ Capital can help in creatingwealth for long run?wealth for long run?


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HBJ Capital's Model Portfolio for longHBJ Capital's Model Portfolio for longterm wealth creation!!!term wealth creation!!!


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Subscribe for HBJ Capitals PAID Service

and discover the next Stock with 10times return in 3 years potential fromour 10in3 Equity Research Report on

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Th k T All O S b ibTh k T All O S b ib


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Thanks To All Our Subscribers.Thanks To All Our Subscribers.Lets have a look at our testimony for 10in3 report sent in Sept08 by HBJ Capital

Team..

Now that the recommendation is coming from you, I am definitely going to invest in this company after

going through the detailed research report sent by you. P Mehrotra (Sept 17th)

This one is bigger than previous reports, but it speaks volume, great job. Ramandeep Singh (Sept 19th)

I would like to heartily congratulate the whole team for providing such detailed research. SR Jain

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I am impressed by its wholesome 360 degree content. It might be a bit long for the impatient lot. H

Shah (Oct 6th )

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Thanks for the report, I really liked the report, I should say thanks to my friend thru whom I came to

know about you guys. In every 10in3 report you provide flash back on your past 3-4 reco which is great

Jagdish Desai (Oct 16th )

Many more to follow.

A crash really occurs when you suddenly have a violent downturn in the market that thenheralds a lon bull market.


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Equity Research Cell Equity Investment Shanti Foundation

Street Smart Newsletter

10in3 Small Cap Research

Portfolio Health Check

Option Trading Ideas

www.hbjcapital.com

Investment in Equity

Angel Investment stage

10% of Profit for Charity.

To register as NGO by

2009.

Plan to start free schools.

HBJ Capital, India

HBJ Capitals way to create wealth is Just be Focused & Unbalanced.

1st Book From HBJ CapitalCatch them Young - How todiscover a Small Cap 10in3Stocks will hit the bookstores by 15th Aug09.

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India by 2012.

We also offer ContractResearch on NSE/BSE listed

companies for financialinstitutions.

HBJ C it l ff i f id b ibHBJ Capitals offering for paid subscribers
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HBJ Capitals offering for paid subscribers.HBJ Capitals offering for paid subscribers.

Investing in stocks is an art, not a science, and people who've been trained torigidly quantify everything have a big disadvantage.

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We owe it to society to give the wealth backe owe t to soc ety to g ve t e wea t bac Hum Log Hai Na. Hum Log Hai Na.

Our Belief..

At HBJ Capital, we all strongly believe in the fact that we owe a debt to society, we owe a helping hand to theunprivileged, we owe a free service to all those struggling financially.

Our Contribution to Society..

It all started since March 2007, we decided to contribute 10% of our profit to Shanti Foundation, a charitable wingof HBJ Capital.

It is possible to contribute 10% of our net profit, because Equity Research work has high operating margin, as itinvolves just intellectual power.

We have plan to register our charitable wing as a NGO by mid 2009.

We thank you for being our PAID subscribers, 10% of your PAID subscription fee goes for the service ofour nation. Jai Hind!!!

"Goodness is the only investment that never fails."


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The average man doesnt wish to betold that it is a bull or a bear market.

What he desires is to be toldspecifically which particular stock to

buy or sell.

He wants to get something for

nothing. He must not forget thateverything comes with a price tag & ifprice is premium so as the service will

be.

Cheap & Best never exit together.

-Jesse Livermore

hbj capital's newsletter (indian stock market) - transitions from bear markets to bull markets

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