Application of the DPSIR analytical framework in a complex

delta system: evaluation of the Thermaikos Gulf (Greece) coastal zone changes during 100 years of human interventions

Aristomenis P. Karageorgis, Vassilios Kapsimalis, Areti Kontogianni, Michalis Skourtos, Kerry Turner and Wim

Salomons

HCMR-Institute of Inland Waters Seminar Series, 29-1-2009

EuroCat ProjectEuroCat ProjectEuropean Catchments: catchment changes and their impact European Catchments: catchment changes and their impact

on the coaston the coastBaltic

NorthSea

Mediterranean

Axios

Po

ElbeRhine

Humber Vistula

AFICOproject

EuroCat Project (2000-2004)

SoilSoil

RiverRiver

EstuaryEstuary

CoastCoast

Atm

osph

ere

Atm

osph

ere

Pro

per

ties

of

the

rive

r ca

tch

men

ts

Hu

man

act

ivit

ies

Coastal Response

The catchement-coast as one system.EUROCAT focused on coastal eutrophication problems caused by nutrient over-enrichment and high N&P emissions.MONERIS model was used to simulate N&P emissions in the catchment.WASP model was used to simulate N&P in the coastal zone.

Axios R.

Gallikos R.

Loudias R. Thessaloniki

ThermaikosGulf

GREECEGREECE

FYROMFYROM

Catchment area:40,000 km2

Aliakmon R.

Thermaikos Gulf catchment areaThermaikos Gulf catchment area

DPSIR Framework

Socio-Economic Drivers

Socio-Economic Drivers

Environmental Pressures.

Environmental Pressures.

Policy Response &

ManagementOptions

Policy Response &

ManagementOptions

Environmental ‘State’ Changes:

Environmental ‘State’ Changes:

ImpactsCoastal

Response

ImpactsCoastal

Response StakeholdersGains/losses

Biophysicalpropertiesbasin-coast

GLOBALCHANGE

Evolution of the Thessaloniki deltaic plain since 500 BC (Struck, 1908)

Today

Historical timesHistorical times

Satellite image of the coastal zone of Satellite image of the coastal zone of Thermaikos Gulf (1997)Thermaikos Gulf (1997)

Major historical eventsMajor historical events

1430 Occupation of Thessaloniki by Murat II

1821 Greek revolution against the Ottoman rule

22-5-1829 Creation of the modern Greek state

1870-1913 Russia, Austria, Bulgaria and Serbia claim Macedonia from the Turks

1912-1913 1st and 2nd Balkan War

10-8-1913 The treaty of Bucharest

1913-Stable borderline1913-Stable borderline

The New GreeceColour lithograph depicting the New Greece [upon] the newly liberated lands, crowning the Greek armed forces, 1913, Athens, National Historical Museum.

Socioeconomic drivers evolutionSocioeconomic drivers evolutionend of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th

century-Ottoman Empire

• Greek rebels fighting for liberation

• malaria-typhus• floods

The Balkans after the First

Balkan War Swamps of Yiannitsa

Hut in the marshes of Yiannitsa

View of Yiannitsa

Socioeconomic drivers evolutionSocioeconomic drivers evolutionend of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th

century-Ottoman Empire

First plans to drain the swamps

The river was naturally diverted to the east and the new river mouth was located at 6.5 km west of the Thessaloniki port-threat of blocking the port

Socioeconomic drivers evolutionSocioeconomic drivers evolution1910-1920

THESSALONIKI

THERMAIK

OS G

ULF

AX

IOS R

.LOU

DIA

S R.

1920

Albanakis et al., 1993

Socioeconomic drivers evolutionSocioeconomic drivers evolution1922

The catastrophe of the Greeks in Asia Minor brought a wave of 800,000 refugees

Needs for economic support

POPULATION GROWTH

HUMAN HEALTH/FLOODS

POLITICAL REASONS

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

20001900 1950Year

TRANSPORT

PORT SILTATION

Socioeconomic drivers evolutionSocioeconomic drivers evolution1890-2000

Diachronic pressures evolutionDiachronic pressures evolution1930-1936

In the 1930’s the Greek state had to face the growing demands for new agricultural areas, flood control, improvement in public health, increased standard of living, reduction of unemployment, and transport improvements

• Realignment of the river route to its present position; this work resolved the siltation problem of the Thessaloniki port entrance

• The Loudias Lake and the swamps were drained• Development of a huge irrigation and road

network• Development of agriculture (e.g. rice production

up to 60% of the Greek total, wheat, maize, barley, cotton, tobacco)

Diachronic pressures evolutionDiachronic pressures evolution1930-2000

REFUGEES REHABILITATION

DRAINING

DAMMING

AXIOS R. DIVERSION

WATER DEMAND

ARABLE LAND

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

20001900 1950Year

AQUACULTURE

Diachronic pressures evolutionDiachronic pressures evolution1890-2000

Environmental State of the coastal zoneEnvironmental State of the coastal zone(indicator: coastline configuration)

1935 1945

1970 1989

Albanakis et al., 1993

erosion accretion

Environmental State of the coastal zoneEnvironmental State of the coastal zone(indicator: submarine erosion-accretion)

PERIODS

I II III

Time

Human Implication No Low High

Status Accretion High Accretion Erosion

Net Sedimentation Rate + 6.5 + 18.0 - 2.5 (106 m3/yr)

1920-1952 1952-20001850-1920

Environmental State of the coastal zoneEnvironmental State of the coastal zone

SUBSIDENCE

AQUIFER AND SOIL SALINIZATION

COASTLINE RETREAT

20001900 1950Years

REDUCTION OF RIVER LOADS

BIODIVERSITY LOSS

REDUCTION OF WETLANDS

Impacts on the coastal zoneImpacts on the coastal zone

ResponsesResponses

First plans for draining

Draining by Foundation Co.

RAMSAR Convention

Axios R. Diversion

Master Plan for Thessaloniki

Establishment of local authorities

NATURA Network

20001900 1950Year

Master Plan for Axios/Vardar

Economic development

Disappearance of diseases

Rehabilitation of refugees

Termination of the siltation threat for the port of

Thessaloniki

Dense network of land transports and navigation

Assessment of human activitiesAssessment of human activitiesPOSITIVE EFFECTS

Erosion of the coastline

Subsidence of urban and industrial areas

Reduction of wetlands

Biodiversity loss

Drastic decrease of water resources

Salinization of deltaic aquifers

Assessment of human activitiesAssessment of human activitiesNEGATIVE EFFECTS

Partly replacement of the highly water consuming cultivations in the deltaic plain for the increase of water discharge in the lower part of the riversRestriction of the ground water over-pumping from the deltaic aquifersEnlargement of the protected areas by the Ramsar Convention and the NATURA 2000 NetworkLegislation of “hard and fast” rules for the illegal sand extractionStrengthening of seawalls and construction of new ones from both sides of the Gallikos R. mouth

Suggested actionsSuggested actions

Photo-mosaic of the Axios River delta

This work has been submitted for publication to Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science and was rejected. Some of the referee’s comments were: non-scientific, were are the data, ….