Health Impacts of Fossil Fuels

Ethanol-Blended Fuels are Mandatory

Assoc. Prof. Ray Kearney

Dept. of Infectious Diseases and ImmunologyThe University of Sydney

Email: rkearney@med.usyd.edu.auPhone: (02) 9351-3590 (w)

• Survival • Longevity • Efficiency

• Well-being

Basic Criteria for Health

Each is impacted adversely by exposure to fossil fuel pollutants

Average Unit Pollution Health-Costs for Inner and Outer Sydney

Note: Data are for all sources: Vehicle, Industry, Domestic/Commercial

Band 1 (Inner Sydney) - $ 8,895,927,250Band 2 (Outer Sydney) - $ 2,654,876,235

Av cost (Bands 1 and 2) - $ 5.78 billion (approx)

Annual health-cost due to vehicle pollution only

in Sydney - $ 2-3 billion (approx)

Amoako, L., Ockwell, A., Lodh, M., ‘The Economic Consequences of the Health Effects of Transport Emissions in Australian Capital Cities’ Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, 2003

Note: Twice as many people die in Sydney from air pollution than in road accidents

Benefits Analysis of Particulate Matter Control Programs – A Case Study in Tokyo

• Economic benefits of pre-control PM10 measures in 1975 (PM10 > 100µg/M3) and post-control levels in 1998 (PM10 < 45µg/M3)

Health-impact benefit Cost ($A) per case

• 3,900 long-term deaths 8,160,000• 4,700 cases of chronic bronchitis (age >30years) 441,333• 7,800 cases cardiovascular disease (age > 65 years) 24,516• 3,100 cases pneumonia (age > 65 years) 19,591• 2,500 cases chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 16,504• 390,000 asthma attacks 54.39• 4,500 cases of acute bronchitis in children 76.45

Point estimate (1999) of total benefit: $A 47.5 billion (incl. cost of lost wages)

A.S. Voorhees - J. Risk Research Vol. 8, 311-329 (June, 2005)

Ethanol & Fine Particulates: PM2.5

• Primary PM2.5 emissions are reduced by a qualified 50 percent using 10 percent ethanol blends.

• Primary PM2.5 linked to aromatics which ethanol can replace.

• Primary PM2.5 linked to deposits, which are also linked to aromatics.

• Secondary PM2.5 organic formation is linked to aromatics which ethanol can replace.

G. Whitten et al., 2004http://www.ethanolrfa.org/pubs.shtml

While CSIRO Looks for More Experiments with Aussie Cars etc,

Saab (Sweden) Finds Solid Market for E85-Powered 9-5 Sedan

At London’s Clean Energy Show (May, 2005) Saab showcased bioethanol-fuelled car - the 9-5 BioPower:

• does not raise atmospheric levels of CO2

• delivers more power than petrol equivalent

(150bhp to 180bhp)

• cheaper fuel (25% less)

• the Saab low-pollution car qualifies for free parking in

Swedish cities• fastest growing premium brand car in UK

Note: Other manufacturers including Chrysler, Ford and Mazda already have flexi-cars (up to E85) in progressive countries that have mandated ethanol.

Professor Daniel Rosenfeld, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

PM 2.5 plumes(yellow)

Coal Power Stations,Oil refineries,or Smelters.

Metropolis e.g.,Adelaide &Melbourne

"Suppression of Rain and Snow by Urban and Industrial Air Pollution"

• Evidence by Professor Daniel Rosenfeld:http://earth.huji.ac.il/data/pics/Science_Smoke.pdf.

• Claims by CSIRO:http://www.casanz.org.au/pdf/%20G.%20Ayers%20May%202005.pdf

• Highly rigorous critique of CSIRO claims:http://www.earth.huji.ac.il/data/pics/06_226_CAS_May_06_rosenfeld2.pdf

– “Denial” of a hazard by an expert may not imply – “the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth”

M. Greenberg (J. Occup. & Environ. Med. 2005; Vol 47: 137-144)

The same techniques to support the use of white asbestos (chrysotile) as a safe material are being used to subvert the community into thinking exposure to vehicle pollutants is without risk to health and well-being.

Fossil Fuel - the New Asbestos!

-The Art of Perpetuating a Public Health Hazard

http://www.catf.us/publications/reports/Diesel_Health_in_America.pdf

Exceedances of Toxic PM2.5

National Environment Protection Council (NEPC) reported:

• "Ozone, PM10 and PM2.5 are the pollutants of concern, having peak concentrations at or above the NEPM standards and no consistent downward trend"

http://www.deh.gov.au/atmosphere/airquality/status/index.html 

• A  main problem identified is with ozone and fine particles PM2.5

  ” The 2001 peak PM2.5 levels are above the advisory reporting

standards at the four jurisdictions (NSW, Victoria, Queensland and WA) that provided data”. 

‘City’ Lung‘Clean’ Lung

Adverse impacts on health and well-being

Exhaust pollution including coarse, fine and ultra-fine particles, gaseous irritants, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH’s) either alone or in combination, are known to be associated with, for example:

» inflammatory lung diseases e.g., asthma, bronchitis and alveolitis

» increased cardio-vascular disease

» risk for exercise-induced heart damage

» limited blood flow and increased blood clotting

» increased mucous production and airway hyper- responsiveness

» 1/5 lung cancer deaths (USA) and accelerated tumour growth

» premature death

» significant risk of ovarian cancer

» symptoms of anaemia e.g., tiredness, headaches, fatigue

and shortness of breath.

» low birth weight and small head circumference of neonate.

» intra-uterine growth retardation (for each 10 nanograms

PAH’s /M3 increase)

» certain leukaemias e.g., from exposure to benzene.

» loss in productivity, absenteeism from work and school.

» increased sensitivity to bacterial products in airways

» more severe common viral asthma

» reduced male fertility

» adverse effects on lung development for age 10 – 18 years

Adverse impacts on health and well-being (Cont.)

Health Impacts of Fine (PM2.5) Particulate Air Pollution

• Short term exposure to PM2.5 increases the risk for hospital admission for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases.

• 18 cases of COPD per 10,000 individuals for every

10-µg/m3 increase in PM2.5.

• Every 10-µg/m3 reduction in PM2.5 reduces hospitalization due to heart failure by 3156 in 246,598 annual cases (204 Counties in USA}.

F. Dominici, et al. J. American Medical Assoc. 8 March, 2006 Vol 295 p1127-34

The Normal Alveolus(Left-Hand Side) andthe Injured Alveolus in the Acute Phase ofAcute Lung Injuryand the AcuteRespiratory DistressSyndrome(Right-Hand Side).

NEJM (2000) 342, p 1334-49

Cascade of Triggers Culminating in Acute Myocardial Infarction

NEJM (2004) 351, p1716

Air-pollution triggerspredisposing to thrombosis:• Inc. coagulability• Inc. inflammation• Inc. viscosity• Inc. vasoconstriction

Coronary thrombosis and acute myocardial

infarction

Pollutants Enhance the Airway Response

to Inhaled Allergens i.e., Hyper-responsiveness

0

5

10

15

20

house-mitedust

pollen pollution combined

Hy

per

-re

spo

nsi

ven

es

s Trigger-threshold for asthma attack

e.g., PM2.5

A

B

A - Severe asthmaB - Episode to lower doses of allergens

DieselExhaust Particles

(DEP) increase

receptors for

endotoxin(LPS)

(LPS)

EnhancedInflammation

New England Journal of Medicine, 2002, Vol. 347, p. 417 - 428

H. Takano et. al. 2002

FEV1 is the volume of air expelled in the first second of maximal forced expiration from a position of full inspiration.

Tumour-Cell Growth and Death

Normal cellCarcinogen

Tumour cell

Initiation andtransformation

Tumour(early growth)

Apoptosis(cell suicide)

Dormancydeath rate = division rate

Acceleration ofTumour growthInflammation

(e.g., PAHs)

(e.g., PM 2.5)

1 mm tumour with blood supply R. Kearney

New Scientist - 9 March, 2002

Big city killerIf the cigarettes don't get you the traffic pollution will

UP TO a fifth of all lung cancer deaths in cities are caused by tiny particles of pollution, most of them from vehicle exhausts.

That's the conclusion of the biggest study into city pollution to date, which tracked half a million Americans for 16 years. It suggests the impact is far greater than feared.

The research focused on particles less than 2.5 micrometres in diameter, known as PM2.5s. These fine particles are thought to kill by lodging deep in the lungs.

The researchers found that the long-term death rate from lung cancer rose by 8 per cent for every 10-microgram increase in the average concentration of PM2.5s per cubic metre. The increased risk is comparable with the risks to long-term passive smokers.

C.A. Pope et al: The Journal of the American Medical Association (2002) 287, p 1132

The Global Supply/Demand Reality

• Global oil reserves equate to approx. 35 years supply based on 29 billion barrels annually and a total global reserve of one trillion barrels.

• Australian consumption of crude oil and condensate in 2004 could be sustained by its remaining economic reserves for only 9.3 years (Geosciences Australia).

ACTION: Political stewardship, vision and preparedness are needed NOW to adopt viable alternative fuels.

Implications for Australia

• Australia is highly dependent on road transport for the movement of both goods and people.

• Currently committed almost entirely to products of crude oil to fuel that transport

Implications:• Great vulnerability to constraints in the global price and

supply of petroleum• Escalating sickness-care costs

ACTION: Australia needs an urgent shift, not tokenism, in policy from conventional fuels to more sustainable cleaner alternatives (e.g., 20% by 2020), including ethanol.

Human lungin

clean-air

Human lungIn

dirty-air

Unlimited and free access to

clean air of acceptable quality

is a fundamental

human necessity and right.

Greater use of clean, alternative fuels, including ethanol, is essential to reduce costly health impacts

“You are a child of the universe, no less than the trees and the stars;

you have a right to live.…” ‘Desiderata’-1927