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Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

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Page 1: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Heart of North Texas Business Conference

November 7, 2014

Hurst, Texas

Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Page 2: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Topic Overview

• Texas is experiencing relatively constant population growth.• This growth is not evenly distributed geographically.• This growth is not evenly distributed racially/ethnically.• The future Texas workforce will be largely Hispanic. • Texas is a national and international economic powerhouse• Hispanics tend to have lower levels of educational attainment

than other groups.• A well-educated labor force can bolster a diverse economy,

making it more resilient to economic downturns.

Page 3: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Year* PopulationNumericChange

AnnualPercentChange

1950 7,711,194 -- --

1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 2.4

1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1.7

1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 2.7

1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 2.0

2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 2.3

2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 2.1

2012 26,060,796 915,235 1.8

2013 26,448,193 387,397 1.4

* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2013 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2013

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates

Page 4: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Texas Population 1950-2010

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts

Page 5: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010

1950-1960

1960-1970

1970-1980

1980-1990

1990-2000

2000-2010

89.5%

86.7%

41.5%

65.9%

49.7%

53.7%

10.5%

13.3%

58.5%

34.1%

50.3%

46.3%

Natural Increase Migration

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Page 6: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

One third of the top 40 fastest growing counties in the United States are in Texas, 2012 to 2013

U.S.Rank Geography Population Estimate Change, 2012 to 2013

2012 2013 Number Percent5 Kendall County, Texas 35,968 37,766 1,798 5.09 Fort Bend County, Texas 625,853 652,365 26,512 4.2

10 Hays County, Texas 169,013 176,026 7,013 4.111 Andrews County, Texas 16,137 16,799 662 4.113 Dimmit County, Texas 10,481 10,897 416 4.022 Comal County, Texas 114,590 118,480 3,890 3.423 Ector County, Texas 144,609 149,378 4,769 3.325 Ward County, Texas 10,887 11,244 357 3.328 Williamson County, Texas 456,359 471,014 14,655 3.232 Montgomery County, Texas 484,790 499,137 14,347 3.035 Denton County, Texas 708,050 728,799 20,749 2.939 Gaines County, Texas 18,393 18,921 528 2.9

Counties in bold had growth associated with oil and gas extraction.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Vintage Population Estimates

Page 7: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

One fourth of U.S. counties in the top 40 for numeric growth are in Texas, 2012-2013

U.S.Rank Geography Population Estimate Change, 2012 to 2013

2012 2013 Number Percent1 Harris County, Texas 4,253,963 4,336,853 82,890 1.9

6 Bexar County, Texas 1,785,787 1,817,610 31,823 1.8

8 Tarrant County, Texas 1,881,445 1,911,541 30,096 1.6

11 Fort Bend County, Texas 625,853 652,365 26,512 4.2

12 Dallas County, Texas 2,453,907 2,480,331 26,424 1.1

15 Travis County, Texas 1,096,246 1,120,954 24,708 2.3

22 Denton County, Texas 708,050 728,799 20,749 2.9

24 Collin County, Texas 834,674 854,778 20,104 2.433 Williamson County, Texas 456,359 471,014 14,655 3.235 Montgomery County, Texas 484,790 499,137 14,347 3.0

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Vintage Population Estimates

Page 8: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

DeafSmith

Roberts

Tyler

ValVerde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

GlasscockShelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

SanAugustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

Trinity

Reeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

McLennan

Madison

McCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

ComancheMitchell Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

JeffDavis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

FortBend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

SanJacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

Sherman Ochiltree

Comal

Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2013

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Vintage Population Estimates

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf

POPESTIMATE2013

95-,10,000

10,001-50,000

50,001-100,000

100,000-500,000

500,001-1,000,000

1,000,001-4,400,000

Page 9: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

DeafSmith

Roberts

Tyler

ValVerde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

GlasscockShelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

SanAugustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

Trinity

Reeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

McLennan

Madison

McCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

ComancheMitchell Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

JeffDavis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

FortBend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

SanJacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

Sherman Ochiltree

Comal

Estimated Numeric Population Change by County, Texas, 2010 to 2013

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Vintage Population Estimates.

99 counties lost population over the three year period.

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf

Nch1013

-800-0

1-1,000

1,001-20,000

20,001-80,000

80,000-228,000

tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf

Pctch1013

-0.106707 - 0.000000

0.000001 - 0.025000

0.025001 - 0.050000

0.050001 - 0.100000

0.100001 - 0.146341

tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf

POPESTIMATE2013

95-,10,000

10,001-50,000

50,001-100,000

100,000-500,000

500,001-1,000,000

1,000,001-4,400,000

Page 10: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

DeafSmith

Roberts

Tyler

ValVerde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

GlasscockShelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

SanAugustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

Trinity

Reeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

McLennan

Madison

McCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

ComancheMitchell Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

JeffDavis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

FortBend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

SanJacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

Sherman Ochiltree

Comal

Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2013

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf

Pctch1013

-11-0%

0.1-2.5%

2.51-5%

5.1-10%

10.1-14.7%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Vintage Population Estimates.

Page 11: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Estimated Number of Net Migrants by County, Texas, 2012 to 2013

11Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2013 Vintage.

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

DeafSmith

Roberts

Tyler

ValVerde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

GlasscockShelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

SanAugustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

Trinity

Reeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

McLennan

Madison

McCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

ComancheMitchell Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

JeffDavis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

FortBend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

SanJacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

Sherman Ochiltree

Comal

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf

NETMIG2013

-10,500-0

1-500

501-1,000

1,001-5,000

5,001-10,000

10,001-40,200

Page 12: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html

Page 13: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Number of Annual Immigrants Admitted to the United States, FY 1820-2012

18201827183418411848185518621869187618831890189719041911191819251932193919461953196019671974198119881995200220090

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

Fiscal Year Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security 2013

Page 14: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Number of Non-Citizen Immigrants by World Area of Birth in the Top 5 Immigration Receiving States, 2007-2011

California

Texas

New York

Florida

Illinois

11,660

8,814

10,045

11,002

3,884

18,766

8,331

17,403

11,730

7,054

100,835

30,982

40,835

15,651

22,721

56,831

61,418

30,532

59,220

10,957

Latin America

Asia

Europe

Africa and Other

Source: 5-Year ACS PUMS 2007-2011

Page 15: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas from Mexico, India, China, and All Other Countries, 2005-2012

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0.8%

2.4%

2.5%

4.2%

1.3%

6.0%

3.9%

6.1%

5.3%

5.7%

7.0%

5.8%

6.9%

6.5%

8.6%

11.7%

56.8%

54.9%

51.3%

49.1%

39.5%

39.4%

45.4%

37.1%

37.1%

36.9%

39.2%

40.9%

52.3%

48.1%

42.1%

45.1%

China India Mexico All Others

Source: 1-Year ACS PUMS 2005-2012

Page 16: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010

NH White53%

NH Black12%

NH Other

4%

Hispanic or Latino

32%

2000

NH White45%

NH Black11%

NH Other

6%

His-panic or Latino38%

2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count

Page 17: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010

Under 1 year13 years 26 years 39 years 52 years 65 years 78 years 91 years0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

White (non-Hispanic) Hispanic

Age

Popu

latio

n

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Page 18: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Under 1 year4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

NH White Male NH White Female

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Page 19: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Under 1 year4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male Hispanic Female NH Black FemaleNH Asian Female NH Other Female

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Page 20: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Under 1 year4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

NH White Male Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male NH White FemaleHispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Page 21: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

The Texas Economy

Page 22: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Texas Economic Indicators, February 2014

Page 23: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections
Page 24: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Fortune 500 companies based in Texas for 2011 according to revenues with State and U.S. rankings

State Corporation US1 ExxonMobil 22 ConocoPhillips 43 AT&T 124 Valero Energy 245 Marathon Oil 296 Dell 417 Sysco 678 Enterprise Products 80

9Plains All American

Pipeline 9910 AMR 11811 Fluor 12412 Tesoro 12813 Kimberly-Clark 13014 Halliburton 14415 USAA 14516 J.C. Penney 14617 Baker Hughes 17018 Texas Instruments 17519 Waste Management 19620 National Oilwell Varco 20221 Dean Foods 20322 Southwest Airlines 20523 Apache Corp. 20624 Anadarko Petroleum 22325 KBR 242

Page 25: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Unemployment Rate, 2010 to 2014

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

5.10%

6.10%

Texas

U.S. Unemployment

Source: Texas Workforce Commission, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 26: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Top States for Doing Business, 2014

Source: Area Development Online www.areadevelopment.com

1.GEORGIA2.TEXAS3.SOUTH CAROLINA4.ALABAMA5.TENNESSEE6.LOUISIANA7.INDIANA8.NORTH CAROLINA9.OHIO10.MISSISSIPPI

Page 27: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Leading Economic Locations, 2014

• Midland, TX (3)• Odessa, TX (9)• Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX (15)• Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX (16)• Corpus Christi, TX (19)• Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (24)• College Station-Bryan, TX (40)• Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX (47)

Source: Area Development Online www.areadevelopment.com

Page 28: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Total U.S. Exports (Origin of Movement) via Texas Top 10 Countries Based on 2013 Dollar Value

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/data/tx.html

Page 29: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Total U.S. Exports (Origin of Movement) via Texas Top 25 6-digit HS Commodities Based on 2013 Dollar Value

Rank Description 2012 Value 2013 Value 2013 % Share % Change, 2012 - 2013

1 PETROL OIL BITUM MINERAL (NT CRUD) ETC NT BIO 34,321 36,466 13.0 6.2

2 LT OILS, PREPS GT=70% PETROLEUM/BITUM NT BIOD 19,739 21,633 7.7 9.6

3 PARTS & ACCESSORIES FOR ADP MACHINES & UNITS 6,731 9,717 3.5 44.4

4 CIVILIAN AIRCRAFT, ENGINES, AND PARTS 4,958 4,981 1.8 0.5

5PROCESSORS AND CONTROLLERS, ELECTRONIC INTEG

4,644 4,973 1.8 7.1

6MACH FOR RECP/CONVR/TRANS/REGN OF VOICE/IMAGE

5,085 4,875 1.7 -4.1

7 PROPANE, LIQUEFIED 2,456 4,589 1.6 86.9

8 PARTS FOR BORING OR SINKING MACHINERY, NESOI 4,881 4,249 1.5 -13.0

9 ACYCLIC ETHERS (EXCL DIETHYL ETHER) NESOI 2,905 2,929 1.0 0.8

10 PARTS AND ACCESSORIES OF MOTOR VEHICLES, NESO 3,807 2,848 1.0 -25.2

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/data/tx.html

Page 30: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Employment Status and Characteristics of Texas Labor Force, 2009 to 2013

2013 2012 2011 2010 2009

Population 16 years and over 20,168,039 19,828,118 19,455,689 19,123,208 18,606,350 *

In labor force 64.9% 64.8% 64.9% 65.2% 66.2% *

Civilian labor force 64.4% 64.3% 64.4% 64.7% 65.6% *

Employed 59.9% 59.2% 58.9% 58.9% 60.3% *

Unemployed 4.5% 5.1% 5.5% 5.7% 5.4% *

Armed Forces 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% *

Not in labor force 35.1% 35.2% 35.1% 34.8% 33.8% *

Percent of civilian labor force unemployed

7.1% 8.0% 8.5% 8.8% 8.2% *

Percent females in civilian labor force

58.1% 57.8% 58.0% 58.7% 59.1% *

Working parents with children under 6 years

59.6% 59.8% 58.4% 59.4% 59.5%

Working parents with children 6 to 17 years

67.0% 67.1% 67.3% 68.1% 68.1% *

*2013 to 2009 Statistical Significance

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, Comparative Economic Characteristics

Page 31: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Employment Status by Nativity, Texas, 2013

Total Native Foreign Born

Foreign Born:

Naturalized

Foreign Born: Not a U.S.

CitizenPopulation 16 years and over

20,168,039 16,030,156 4,137,883 1,457,369 2,680,514

In labor force 64.9% 64.2% 67.5% 68.8% 66.7%

Civilian labor force 64.4% 63.7% 67.3% 68.5% 66.7%

Employed 59.9% 59.0% 63.4% 65.5% 62.2%

Unemployed 4.5% 4.7% 4.0% 3.1% 4.4%

Armed Forces 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%

Not in labor force 35.1% 35.8% 32.5% 31.2% 33.3%

Percent of civilian labor force unemployed

7.1% 7.4% 5.9% 4.5% 6.7%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

Page 32: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Industry by Nativity, Texas, 2013Total Native Foreign

BornForeign Born: Naturalized

Foreign Born: Not a U.S.

Citizen

Agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting, mining 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.2% 3.7%

Construction 7.8% 5.8% 14.9% 7.0% 19.4%Manufacturing 9.3% 8.7% 11.4% 12.3% 10.9%Wholesale trade 3.1% 3.1% 2.9% 3.0% 2.9%Retail trade 11.6% 12.2% 9.5% 10.4% 9.0%

Transportation & warehousing, utilities 5.2% 5.5% 4.3% 5.7% 3.6%

Information 1.8% 1.9% 1.2% 1.7% 0.9%

Finance & insurance, real estate & rental & leasing 6.6% 7.4% 3.7% 5.4% 2.8%

Professional, scientific, & management, administrative & waste management services 11.1% 10.8% 12.3% 11.3% 12.9%

Educational services, health care & social assistance 21.3% 22.9% 15.8% 23.4% 11.5%

Arts, entertainment, & recreation, accommodation & food services 9.0% 8.3% 11.5% 7.3% 13.9%

Other services (except public administration) 5.4% 4.8% 7.6% 6.9% 8.0%

Public administration 4.3% 5.1% 1.3% 2.5% 0.7%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

Page 33: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Projections

Page 34: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050

20102012

20142016

20182020

20222024

20262028

20302032

20342036

20382040

20422044

20462048

205020,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

55,000,000

60,000,000

Zero.5 of 2000-20102000-2010

Migration Scenarios

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections

Page 35: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

F6

-6,200 - 0

1 - 2,000

2,001 - 10,000

10,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 1,000,000

1,000,001 -3,480,000

Page 36: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Projected Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

F5

LT 0%

0-40%

41-100%

101-250%

251-500%

Page 37: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050

20102013

20162019

20222025

20282031

20342037

20402043

20462049

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

NH-WhiteNH-BlackHispanicNH-Other

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Page 38: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity –

High School Graduates and Above

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201150%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

WhiteBlackHispanicOther

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011

Page 39: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates,

Texas

39

Less

than High Sc

hool

High School o

r Equiva

lent

Some Colle

ge / Asso

ciate D

egree

Bachelor's

Degre

e

Graduate or P

rofessi

onal Degre

e0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

15.0%

23.8%

31.3%

20.1%

9.8%

18.1%

24.0%

29.9%

18.7%

9.3%

2011 ACS

2030 Constant 2011 %

Educational Attainment

Perc

ent o

f the

Civ

ilian

Lab

or F

orce

These should be going DOWN These should be going UP

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Page 40: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended

Rates, Texas

40

Less

than High Sc

hool

High School o

r Equiva

lent

Some Colle

ge / Asso

ciate D

egree

Bachelor's

Degre

e

Graduate or P

rofessi

onal Degre

e0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

15.0%

23.8%

31.3%

20.1%

9.8%11.4%

20.4%

34.3%

22.1%

11.8%

2011 ACS

2030 Trended (2001-2011 Trend)

Educational Attainment

Perc

ent o

f the

Civ

ilian

Lab

or F

orce

These should be going DOWN These should be going UP

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Page 41: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Projections of Middle Skill Jobs by Metro Area, 2017

Page 43: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Summary

• Population continues to grow quickly though growth is geographically unequal.

• Population growth is being driven by Hispanic population. • The future Texas labor force will be largely Hispanic.• Hispanics tend to have lower levels of educational attainment

than other groups.• Economic growth continues to be health with significant

growth in international economic activity• Demographic and infrastructure challenges may have serious

implications for future Texas economy.

43

Page 44: Heart of North Texas Business Conference November 7, 2014 Hurst, Texas Texas Demographic Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Contact

Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530Email: [email protected]: http://osd.state.tx.us

Office of the State Demographer