heat and health: methodological considerations for warning system development
DESCRIPTION
Heat and Health: Methodological Considerations for Warning System Development. UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE. SYNOPTIC CLIMATOLOGY LABORATORY. U. D. Washington, D.C. May 2005. Dr. Laurence S. Kalkstein Synoptic Climatology Laboratory Center for Climatic Research University of Delaware. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Heat and Health: MethodologicalConsiderations for Warning SystemDevelopment
Dr. Laurence S. KalksteinSynoptic Climatology Laboratory
Center for Climatic ResearchUniversity of Delaware
Washington, D.C.May 2005
How Are These Systems Unique?
A custom-made system is developed for each urban area, based on specific meteorology for each locale, as well as urban structure and demographics
These systems are based on actual weather-health relationships, as determined by daily variations in human mortality
These systems are based on much more than just temperature and humidity
Systems We are Presently OperatingUSA Chicago, IL Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX* Dayton/Cincinnati, OH Jackson/Meridian, MS Lake Charles/Alexandria, LA Little Rock/Pine Bluff, AR Memphis, TN/Tupelo, MS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA Philadelphia, PA* Phoenix, AZ Portland, OR Seattle, WA St. Louis, MO Shreveport/Monroe, LA Washington, D.C. Yuma, AZ
International Bologna, Italy Florence, Italy Milan, Italy Naples, Italy Palermo, Italy Rome, Italy Shanghai, China Turin, Italy Toronto, Canada
* New five-day forecast systems based on point forecast matrices
Steps in System Development Step 1: Determine air masses daily over a city using
newly-developed Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC)
Step 2: Are any of these air masses ‘offensive’?
Characteristics:
* Statistically significant higher mortality
* Greater within air mass standard deviation in mortality
Step 3: What aspects of the offensive air mass make it most detrimental to human health?
SSC Air Mass Types• DP Dry Polar (cP)• DM Dry Moderate (Pacific)• DT Dry Tropical (cT)• MP Moist Polar (mP)• MM Moist Moderate (Overrunning)• MT Moist Tropical (mT)• MT+ Moist Tropical Plus• TR Transition between air masses
----------------
Sheridan, S.C., 2002: The redevelopment of a weather-type classification scheme for North America.
Int. J. Climatology, 22, 51-68.
Kalkstein, L.S., C.D. Barthel, J.S. Greene and M.C. Nichols, 1996. A New Spatial Synoptic Classification:
Application to Air Mass Analysis. Int. J. Climatology, 16, 983-1004.
Characteristics of WashingtonAir Mass Types
Air mass Air Temp. Dew Pt. Air Temp. Cloud Seasonal
Type 5 pm 5 pm 5 am Cover Freq.*
DP 80 55 64 5 8%DM 87 59 69 5 23%DT 95 64 76 4 5%MP 68 64 67 10 2%MM 79 68 72 9 20%MT 88 69 74 7 27%MT+ 93 73 78 6 6%TR 83 62 72 6 9%
* Mean air mass frequency from 1 June through 31 August
Mean Mortality Increases Within Offensive Air Mass Types
a MT+ does not occur in Seattle or Portland; the moist air mass that is oppressive is MT.* DT+ air mass for Phoenix
Location (Freq) DT MT+
+4.0 (10%)+4.2 (11%)Toronto (7%)
+42.4 (16%)NoneShanghai (11%)
+5.0 (12%)+6.2 (14%)Rome (11%)
None+2.7* (7%)Phoenix (1%)
+3.7 (9%)NoneNew Orleans (2%)
+1.7 (7%)+0.9 (4%)Washington (11%)
+1.1a (4%)+3.0 (9%)Portland (6%)
+4.7a (10%)+3.7 (8%)Seattle (6%)
ROME
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
5/155/31
6/16/15
6/166/30
7/17/15
7/167/31
8/18/15
8/168/31
9/19/15
9/169/30
Me
an a
no
mal
ou
s m
ort
alit
yMT+ mortality decreases through summer
ROME
DT mortality vs. morning temperature
-30-20-10
01020304050
16 18 20 22 24 26 28
5 AM temperature (°C)
Me
an a
nom
alo
us
mor
talit
y
Impact of Consecutive Days of Offensive Air Masses: Philadelphia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1 2 3 4 5Day in Row
Exc
ess
Dea
ths
DT MT+
Steps That can be Taken When Alerts or Emergencies are Called
1. NWS alerts appropriate city agency (e.g., Department of Health, Office of Aging, etc.)
2. City develops (or already has in place) intervention plans
3. Effectiveness of system can be monitored in three manners,and improvements are implemented if there are shortcomings:--forecasting effectiveness (false positives or negatives)--accuracy in estimating health impacts of offensive weather --noting if we are saving lives.