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Page 1: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_3.16.16.pdf · 2016-03-16 · Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut
Page 2: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_3.16.16.pdf · 2016-03-16 · Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut

HEDGEYE 2

DISCLAIMER Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut. Hedgeye Risk Management is not a broker dealer and does not provide investment advice to individuals. This research does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This research is presented without regard to individual investment preferences or risk parameters; it is general information and does not constitute specific investment advice. This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for errors, inaccuracies or omissions of information. The opinions and conclusions contained in this report are those of Hedgeye Risk Management, and are intended solely for the use of Hedgeye Risk Management’s clients and subscribers. In reaching these opinions and conclusions, Hedgeye Risk Management and its employees have relied upon research conducted by Hedgeye Risk Management’s employees, which is based upon sources considered credible and reliable within the industry. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for the validity or authenticity of the information upon which it has relied. TERMS OF USE This report is intended solely for the use of its recipient. Re-distribution or republication of this report and its contents are prohibited. For more detail please refer to the appropriate sections of the Hedgeye Services Agreement and the Terms of Use at www.hedgeye.com.

LEGAL

Page 3: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_3.16.16.pdf · 2016-03-16 · Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

March 16, 2016

HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATION

Page 4: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_3.16.16.pdf · 2016-03-16 · Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut

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4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

March 16, 2016

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

CASH U.S.EQUITIES

INT'LEQUITIES

COMMODITIES FOREIGNEXCHANGE

FIXED INCOME

64%

0% 0%

18% 18%

73%

HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATION

The maximum preferred exposure for cash is 100%. The maximum preferred exposure for each of the other asset classes is 33%.

Page 5: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_3.16.16.pdf · 2016-03-16 · Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

March 16, 2016

HEDGEYE MACRO PROCESS: RATE OF CHANGE

Page 6: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_3.16.16.pdf · 2016-03-16 · Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

March 16, 2016

S&P 500 REVENUES & EARNINGS COMPS

Page 7: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_3.16.16.pdf · 2016-03-16 · Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut

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4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

March 16, 2016

HEDGEYE SECTOR PERFORMANCE

Page 8: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_3.16.16.pdf · 2016-03-16 · Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

March 16, 2016

HEDGEYE SECTOR RELATIVE PERFORMANCE

Page 9: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_3.16.16.pdf · 2016-03-16 · Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut

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4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

March 16, 2016

HEDGEYE STYLE FACTOR PERFORMANCE

Page 10: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_3.16.16.pdf · 2016-03-16 · Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut

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4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

March 16, 2016

HEDGEYE RATES & SPREADS

Page 11: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_3.16.16.pdf · 2016-03-16 · Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut

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4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

March 16, 2016

CFTC NON-COMMERCIAL NET LONG POSITIONING

Page 12: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_3.16.16.pdf · 2016-03-16 · Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut

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4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

March 16, 2016

MARKET SHARE VOLUME & TOTAL VALUE TRADED

Page 13: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_3.16.16.pdf · 2016-03-16 · Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut

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March 16, 2016

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Page 14: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_3.16.16.pdf · 2016-03-16 · Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut

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4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

March 16, 2016

LIGHT CRUDE OIL SPOT PRICE

Page 15: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_3.16.16.pdf · 2016-03-16 · Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

March 16, 2016

TOKYO NIKKEI AVERAGE INDEX

Page 16: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_3.16.16.pdf · 2016-03-16 · Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut

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4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

March 16, 2016

SELL THE HAWK

Page 17: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_3.16.16.pdf · 2016-03-16 · Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut

1 2 3

USD

RUSSELL 2000

HEALTHCARE

Page 18: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_3.16.16.pdf · 2016-03-16 · Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut

USD Not surprisingly, the USD is up (this week) into the “relatively hawkish” #LateCycle Employment Fed statement – but how much USD (and rates) upside is there? Not much, for now as both the Japanese and European #BeliefSystem of FX devaluation continues to break-down, pressuring USD inasmuch as slowing housing and consumption data does.

Page 19: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_3.16.16.pdf · 2016-03-16 · Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut

RUSSELL 2000 Right there with the Financials (XLF -6.0% year-to-date) as Best Ideas Shorts in 2016 year-to-date is the Russell 2000 (down -1.6% yesterday to -6.1% year-to-date) as both a are much purer play on the short side of the U.S. economy slowing than the global one. We know that doesn’t fit the perma bull narrative. But it does fit yesterday’s U.S. Retail Sales and Housing (NAHB) data! #slowing.

Page 20: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_3.16.16.pdf · 2016-03-16 · Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut

HEALTHCARE Another Sector Style that continues to underperform in 2016 (XLV down -1.7% yesterday to -6.7% year-to-date, with Biotech, IBB, -3.8% on the day). We know. We know. It was Valeant( VRX). But remember what the macro message is there – don’t be long storytelling, leverage, and “pricing” when the macro risk = #Deflation.