help or hindrance - travel and energy implications of highly automated vehicles
TRANSCRIPT
School of something FACULTY OF OTHER
Help or Hindrance? Travel and Energy
Implications of Highly Automated Vehicles
Zia Wadud
Centre for Integrated Energy Research & Institute for Transport Studies
with Don MacKenzie (UWashington); Paul Leiby (ORNL)
Future Powertrains Conference, Solihull, Feb 2015
Objective:
To bound the potential energy impacts
Framework:
Energy Demand = Energy Efficiency
× Travel Demand
Method:
Primarily literature review, aided by
rational assumptions
Scenario building
Study description
Levels of automation
NHTSA: 5 Levels
Mechanisms for energy effects
Energy Efficiency
Travel Demand
Energy efficiency
Platooning on highway travel
- 4%~20%
Energy efficiency
(Automated) Eco-driving
- 0%~20%
Energy efficiency
Traffic flow & capacity improvement
- 0%~4%
Energy efficiency
De-emphasized performance
- 5%~18%
Energy efficiency
Improved crash avoidance
- 6%~17%
Energy efficiency
Vehicle right-sizing
- 20%~24%
Energy efficiency
Higher speed limit
+ 7%~15%
Energy efficiency
Enhanced features
+ 0%~11%
Travel demand
Increased car travel
(travel cost reduction)
+ 5%~150%*
*Most likely not as high as 150%, as there will be other constraints
Travel demand
New users
+ 2%~10%
Travel demand
New mobility models
- 0%~20%
-50% 0% 50% 100% 150%
Platooning
Eco-driving
Congestion mitigation
De-emphasized performance
Improved crash avoidance
Vehicle right-sizing
Higher highway speeds
Increased features
Travel cost reduction
New user groups
Changed mobility services
Infrastructure footprint*
% changes in energy consumption due to vehicle automation
Results (USA)
UK guess
Four scenarios (not predictions!)
-100.0%
0.0%
100.0%
200.0% LDV HDV
Energy Intensity
Travel Demand
Energy Demand
Total Road Transport
Energy
-100.0%
0.0%
100.0%
200.0%
-100.0%
0.0%
100.0%
200.0%
-100.0%
0.0%
100.0%
200.0%
Have our cake & eat it too
Stuck in the middle at L2
Strong responses
Dystopian nightmare
Still large uncertainties
Beware of unintended travel & energy effects
Most travel increases from level 4 automation
Short of level 4 better from energy perspective
..Yet level 4 increases mobility for the disabled and the elderly
Conclusions
http://www.carbonated.tv/news/avis-to-buy-zipcar-as-slow-economy-boosts-carshare-business
http://mobile.nytimes.com/images/100000001261421/2012/01/04/us/hawaii-train-line-is-likely-to-rise-on-oahu.html?_r=0
http://nypost.com/2014/10/19/taxi-shortage-as-uber-lures-away-yellow-cabbies/
http://inhabitat.com/transportation-tuesday-toyotas-lightweight-1x-concept/
http://www.slideshare.net/gonzague2/bertha-sunnyvale-2013-1120-rgh
http://www.roadsafetygb.org.uk/news/3301.html
http://www.ronitbaras.com/emotional-intelligence/personal-development-c/how-to-change-habits-habit-types-and-how-they-
form/
http://superbuzzonline.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/tachometer-plus-1-more.html
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/advancedresearch/pubs/12033/004.cfm
http://www.autolife.umd.umich.edu/Environment/E_Overview/55mph_SpeedLimit.htm
http://www.emercedesbenz.com/autos/mercedes-benz/concept-vehicles/mercedes-self-driving-cars/attachment/mercedes-
concept-11c1101_060/
https://transportevolved.com/2014/12/29/google-self-driving-prototype-pod-cars-will-begin-road-testing-next-month/
http://www.mylespaul.com/forums/backstage/201046-i-drive-like-old-woman-im-damned-proud-2.html
http://www.cloudsoftct.com/erp.html#
http://www.backpacker-girls.com/2011/06/europe-land-for-special-disabled-person.html
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2010/nov/21/mobility-aid-oft-scrutiny
http://www.automocionblog.com/post/9637/general-motors-trabaja-en-una-segunda-generacion-del-en-v-pod
Image courtesy