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All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028 Henry Phillips

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Page 1: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028

Henry Phillips

Page 2: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and
Page 3: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028

Henry Phillips

Page 4: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

COFORDDepartment of Agriculture, Fisheries and FoodAgriculture HouseKildare StreetDublin 2Ireland

© COFORD 2011

First published in 2011 by COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Dublin, Ireland.

ISBN: 978-1-902696-66-9

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, or stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, electrostatic,magnetic tape,mechanical, photocopying recording or otherwise, without prior permission in writing from COFORD.

Title: All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028.Author: Henry Phillips.

Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Dublin.

The views and opinions expressed in this publication belong to the author alone and do not necessarily reflect those of COFORD or the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food.

Page 5: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

Acknowledgements

Foreword

Preface

Executive summary

Introduction

Methodology

Data sources

Assortment volumes

Sawable volume

Forecast of standing volume

Forecast of net realisable volume

References

Table 1: Forecast volume and actual harvest volume (000 m3)

Table 2: Percentage of volume >=14 cm that potentially converts to sawable material

Table 3: Forecast of potential standing volume production by assortment category (000 m3 overbark)

Table 4: Forecast of potential net realisable volume production by assortment category (000 m3 overbark)

Table 5: Forecast of potential net realisable volume production – total volume and volume tip-7 cm (000 m3 overbark)

Table 6: Forecast of potential conifer net realisable volume production by species group (000 m3 overbark)

Table 7: Forecast of potential net realisable volume production by harvest type (000 m3 overbark)

Table 8: Forecast of potential harvest areas by harvest type (ha)

Table 9: Forecast of potential total net realisable volume by county (000 m3 overbark)

Table 10: Forecast of potential net realisable volume assortment 7-13 cm by county (000 m3 overbark)

Table 11: Forecast of potential net realisable volume assortment 14-19 cm by county (000 m3 overbark)

Table 12: Forecast of potential net realisable volume assortment 20 cm + by county (000 m3 overbark)

Table 13: Forecast of potential net realisable volume assortment tip-7 cm by county (000 m3 overbark)

Table 14: Forecast of potential spruce net realisable volume by county (000 m3 overbark)

Table 15: Forecast of potential lodgepole pine net realisable volume by county (000 m3 overbark)

Table 16: Forecast of potential other conifer net realisable volume by county (000 m3 overbark)

Figure 1: Forecast of volume production 2011-2028

Figure 2: Methodology to forecast net realisable volume

Figure 3: Forecast of net realisable volume production

Figure 4: Forecast of net realisable volume production by size category

Figure 5: Forecast of net realisable volume by species group

Figure 6: Forecast of harvest areas (ha)

Appendix 1: Forecast of potential net realisable volume production by harvest type for ROI (000 m3 overbark)

Addendum - Estimate of potential availability of wood fibre for energy

Table of Contents

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Page 6: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

Acknowledgements

The author wishes to thank the members of the COFORD Roundwood Supply Group: Mike Glennon (Chair, Glennon Brothers), Tim Crowley (Coillte), Dr Eugene Hendrick (COFORD/DAFF), John Joe O’Boyle (Northern Ireland Forest Service), Richard Latimer (Glennon Brothers), Gerard Murphy (Coillte), Dr Nuala Ni Fhlatharta (Teagasc), Vivian Ryan (Coillte), Donal Whelan (Irish Timber Growers Association). Thanks also to Mr Liam Quinn (Coillte) and Mr John Redmond (Forest Service) for their data contribution to this forecast and for their advice on combining data from a range of sources and the interpretation of published forecast volumes. Thanks are also extended to Dr Mairtin MacSiúrtáin (UCD) for his comments on the text and editorial inputs and to Eoin O’Driscoll (Drima Marketing) for providing the processing data.

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Page 7: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

Foreword

Ireland’s forest sector is a success story, employing 16,000 people across the state. It comprises a vibrant forest products sector, with state-of-the-art boardmills and sawmills, exporting a high proportion of output. Considerable potential exits to expand production; half the forest estate is less than 25 years old, and further expansion of forest cover is planned. Realising the potential of forests to provide increased and sustainable supplies of goods and services to industry and wider society depends on a number of factors, including accurate and timely information on their production potential. Over the past eighteen months a COFORD Roundwood Supply Group has been working to collate information on the production potential of forests here in the Republic and in Northern Ireland. This report is the outcome of their work, and provides a comprehensive and regional basis for roundwood production to 2028. I very much welcome the outcomes of the work presented in these pages. They provide a very good basis for decision making, and will help to guide prudent investment by the private sector over the coming decade. In essence the report shows that over the period to 2028 the production capacity of Ireland’s forests will almost double to 7 million cubic metres, from the current 3.79 million. Almost all of the increase in supply is set to come from privately-owned forests in the Republic - those areas established over the past 25 years on foot of state/EU and private sector investment. Considerable scope exists to expand wood energy production, and this is in addition to supplies for sawmilling and board manufacture. Making the potential in this report a reality will require significant investment by the forest industry and the state in training, infrastructure, IT and research. I am confident that the capacity and determination exists in the forest sector to bring these results about. In conclusion, I want to thank all those involved in the compilation of the report, those from Glennon Brothers, UCD, Coillte, the Northern Ireland Forest Service, The Irish Timber Growers Association, Teagasc and officials of my own Department.

Sean Connick TDMinister of State for Forestry

February 2011

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Preface

Tight control of costs, allied to investment in innovation are key to maintaining and increasing the competitiveness of the forest sector in Ireland. At the processing end, converting roundwood into increasingly sophisticated products and systems requires a close match between customer demand and what is available in the forest. Reliable information on the location and quantity of roundwood available to market is a vital component in planning not only day-to-day harvest schedules, but in longer term planning and in scaling innovation effort and capital investment. The COFORD Roundwood Supply Group has been able over the past eighteen months to develop significantly better information on the location and quantity of roundwood supply to 2028. One of the most important aspects of the work has been a critical appraisal of the level of supply that is likely to come to market, taking into account issues such as harvest loss, access and plantation size. We are glad that all sectors have now accepted that for those critically important investment and planning decisions a new concept, net realisable volume, is accepted in production forecasting. It is acknowledged that the overall production potential of the forest resource considerably exceeds the net realisable volume level; however, experience and available information show that the net realisable volume itself has never been achieved to date. This document provides, for the first time, a comprehensive roundwood production forecast for private and public forests in the Republic and in Northern Ireland. It is further broken down by assortment categories and species groups. For the Republic, county-level forecasts are provided, and these can be accessed and interrogated using the forecast tool developed at University College Dublin by Dr Mairtín Mac Siúrtáin and his team in the FORECAST project, funded under the COFORD programme. What stands out from the forecast is that roundwood supply will increase significantly over the next two decades, almost all coming from privately-owned forests in the Republic, and mainly in the sawlog-sized category. As we have pointed out, the overall forecast is contingent on issues such as access and plantation size, and likewise the expected assortment outcome depends on plantations being thinned on time, at sufficient intensity, to bring forward supplies of larger, more valuable sizes. Table 8 in the report illustrates the scale of the thinning challenge, over 22,500 ha to be thinned in 2011 alone, rising to 49,400 ha by 2020. This will require investment in forest roads and in training and education right along the supply chain, from forest owners to machine operators and hauliers. The wood energy market is vital to achieving the levels of thinnings anticipated in the forecast, and the Addendum to the report provides estimates of the level of supply that can be achieved. Given that roundwood demand exceeded supply in 2010, particularly in the 14 cm+ top diameter category, we strongly recommend that this report be read in conjunction with the COFORD Roundwood Demand Group report, which outlines the demand profile to 2020. In conclusion, this roundwood production forecast is a major advance on what was available heretofore. It has developed a new understanding of roundwood production forecasting in the forest sector in Ireland. We thank the members of the COFORD Roundwood Supply Group mentioned in the acknowledgements and in particular the author, Henry Phillips, for skilfully bringing together a range of data sources with different approaches and assumptions into a well structured and authoritative document.

Mike Glennon Michael LynnChair ChairmanCOFORD Roundwood Supply Group COFORD

February 2011

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1

The forest processing and emerging wood energy sectors require forecast volumes at an all Ireland level, to underpin any investment decisions. This series of forecast tables is an attempt to collate forecast volume data from a number of sources and present them on an all Ireland basis. The forecast volumes are based on a range of assumptions, yield models, management regimes and forecast rules which may or may not be applicable at individual plantation level. This document should be read in conjunction with the COFORD Roundwood Demand Group report. There can be significant differences between forecast volumes and actual timber volumes processed by the timberindustry in any given year. This is due to a combination of factors principally (a) volume losses arising during harvesting, (b) planned volumes not being harvested due to market conditions/access/site conditions and (c) individual owner’s circumstances and preferences.

Two forecasts are presented: (1) Forecast of standing volume and (2) Forecast of net realisable volume which includes reductions for harvest loss, accessibility and crops unlikely to be harvested. The data sources used in compiling the forecast were a combination of (a) private sector geospatial forecast (Phillips et al. 2009) (b) Coillte’s Forecast 2011 (c) Northern Ireland Forest Service (NIFS) forecast of softwood availability and (d) potential softwood availability from the private sector in Northern Ireland. The total forecast of potential standing volume production over the forecast period 2011-2028 is 95.47 million m3, with an additional 2.94 million m3 potentially available in the tip-7 cm category. The forecast volume increases from an estimated 4.46 million m3 in 2011 to 7.38 million m3 in 2028. The total net realisable volume production over the forecast period is estimated as being 85.06 million m3, with an additional 2.40 million m3 potentially available in the tip-7 cm category. The forecast volume increases from 3.79 million m3 in 2011 to 6.95 million m3 in 2028. The volumes available within the Republic of Ireland (ROI) are estimated to double over the forecast period, while those in Northern Ireland (NI) are estimated to show an increase of 20%.

Executive summary

Forecast of net realisable volume production, 2011-2028.

Net realisable volume: the estimated roundwood volume that will potentially be available to the end user.

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Private sector NI

Coillte

NIFS

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Based on Coillte’s forecast, the percentage of the 14 cm plus assortment volume that converts to sawable material is relatively consistent for spruce over the period of the forecast, but can vary widely year on year for other tree species. Conversion factors for the three species groups are provided. Net realisable volume from thinnings totals 27.45 million m3 (excluding private sector NI) and the proportion of thinning volume to total volume increases up to 2022 and then begins to decline as more clearfell volume becomes available from the private sector in the ROI. It is important to note that the volumes associated with second, third and subsequent thinnings are directlydependantuponthefirstthinningbeingundertaken.Clearfells(excludingprivatesectorNI)areestimatedtoaccountfor 57.28 million m3 over the forecast period. The total annual thinning area is estimated to more than double from 22,800 ha in 2011 to 49,400 ha by 2028 with the mostsignificantincreasebeingintheROIprivatesector.Clearfellareasincontrastfluctuatewithintherange7,200hato8,100haupto2018andshowasignificantincreasethereafterduetotheforecastclearfellofno-thincropsintheprivatesector. Markets may not always be available for the volumes forecasted. The volumes may be subject to changes in the regulatory framework. Professional advice should be sought prior to using the forecasts as an integral component of the decision-making process. There is an increasing need to inform policy makers, academia and potential investors on the potential availability of woodfibrevolumesforenergyuse.Toaddressthisrequirement,anAddendumprovidinganestimateofpotentialavailabilityofwoodfibreforenergyhasbeenincludedinthisreport.

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Since the publication in 2001 of the forecast of roundwood production from the forests of Ireland (Gallagher and O’Carroll 2001) there has been a downturn in private planting coupled with major changes in species composition in the Republic of Ireland(ROI).Moreimportantly,therehasbeenasignificantadvanceinthecapacitytoforecasttimbervolumesfromtheprivatesectorandinthequalityofthedatasetsusedtoforecastthesevolumes.ACOFORD-fundedprivatesectorgeospatialforecast was published in 2009 (Phillips et al. 2009) which provided volume forecast estimates at national, regional, county and catchment levels. The forest processing and emerging wood energy sectors require forecast volumes at an all Ireland level to underpin any investment decisions. There are now increasing competing demands for the smaller sized timber volume assortments which traditionally were used in the manufacture of wood panels and fencing materials. This series of forecast tables is an attempt to collate forecast volume data from a number of sources and present them on an all Ireland basis. For comparison purposes, previous forecast volumes for years 2007 to 2009 inclusive are compared with volumes harvested (Table 1). This document should be read in conjunction with the COFORD Roundwood Demand Group report. The forecast volumes are based on a range of assumptions, yield models, management regimes and forecast rules which may or may not be applicable at individual plantation level. The forecast assumes a continuation of the clearfell system of silviculture.Anychangetocontinuous-covertypesilviculturalsystemswillimpactonforecastvolumes.Theforecastdoesnottakeintoaccountmarketfluctuationsorvaryingmarketconditionsduringtheperiodoftheforecast.Thevolumesmaybe subject to changes in the regulatory framework. Twoforecastswerecompiled,thefirstbeingaforecastofstandingvolumewhichispotentiallyavailableforharvesting.This is the standard type of forecast which has been produced at regular intervals for both the ROI and Northern Ireland over the years. The second forecast is for net realisable volume, i.e. the roundwood volume that is potentially available for processing at the end-use facility. It uses the forecast of standing volume as its starting point and through the application of a series of volume reductions to account for volume losses in harvesting and stands which are unlikely to be harvested due toaccessorotherdifficulties,arrivesatanestimateofthenetrealisablevolume. The volumes are indicative of the expected potential roundwood production from all of the forests within Ireland for the 2011-28 period. The volumes are provided by standard size assortment classes (7-13 cm, 14-19 cm and 20 cm +). These do not equate to product classes due to underlying assumptions regarding log lengths and timber quality. Historically between 65-70%ofthe14cmplussizeassortmentsconvertstosawablevolume.Anestimateofthereductionfactorstoconvertsizeassortments to sawable volume is included later in this report (Table 2). There can be significant differences between forecast volumes and actual timber volumes processed by the timberindustry in any given year. This is due to a combination of factors principally (a) volume losses arising during harvesting, (b) planned volumes not being harvested due to market conditions/access/site conditions and (c) individual owners’ circumstances and preferences. The production of a forecast for net realisable volume is an attempt to lessen the difference between forecast volumes and volumes processed by industry. The total forecast volumes, net of harvest losses, by standard size assortment together with the actual volumes harvested and the overall processing outturn by product category are shown in Table 1 for the three years 2007 to 2009 inclusive. While the forecast volumes remain relatively stable, the volumes harvested vary from 2.85 to 3.40 million m3. Over the three year period there is a difference of 1.96 million m3 between forecast volume and actual harvest volume. The processing outturn is not directly comparable with the harvested volume as it includes log imports from outside the island of Ireland. The sawlog outturn varies from 61.9% to 66.2% of total volume depending on volume source and year. In contrast, the two larger forecast size assortments represent from 76% to 83% of total forecast volume depending on volume source and year. Thetwolargersizeassortmentsaccountfor77%oftotalvolumeoverthefirstfiveyearperiodoftheallIrelandforecast.Asmentionedabove,thesetwofiguresarenotdirectlycomparableduetounderlyingassumptionsregardingstandardlengths,speciesandtimberquality.Asthereportgoestoprint,2010dataarenotavailableforTable1.Indicationsarehoweverthatthe ratio of harvested volume to forecast net volume in 2010 was within the range indicated in Figure 2, and that demand exceeded supply, particularly in the 14 cm plus top diameter category. Professional advice should be sought prior to using the forecasts as an integral component of the decision-making process.

Introduction

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2007 2008 2009

(a) Forecast production ROI NI Total ROI NI Total ROI NI Total

7-13 cm

14-19 cm

20+ cm

650

970

1,683

76

135

234

726

1,106

1,917

667

929

1,627

76

135

234

743

1,064

1,861

779

966

1,564

76

135

234

855

1,101

1,798

Total 3,303 445 3,748 3,223 445 3,668 3,309 445 3,754

(b) Harvested volume 2,946 456 3,402 2,397 457 2,854 2,484 467 2,951

Difference (a) - (b) 357 -11 346 826 -12 814 825 -22 803

Processing outturn (%) ROI NI Total ROI NI Total ROI NI Total

Pulpwood 29.6 20.8 27.7 32.0 20.7 29.6 30.2 20.8 28.0

Stakewood 6.0 17.2 8.5 3.0 17.3 6.1 3.6 17.3 6.8

Sawlog 64.4 62.0 63.9 65.0 61.9 64.3 66.2 61.9 65.2

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Sources: COFORD Connects Notes, Eoin O’Driscoll (Drima Marketing).

Methodology

Data SourceSThe basis for the allocation of volumes between Coillte and the private sector within the ROI is land ownership. This approach is compatible with the private sector forecast (Phillips et al. 2009) and avoids complications arising from joint venture and partnership arrangements. The Irish Forestry Unit Trust (IForUT) owns the harvesting rights to part of the Coillte forest estate and manages these areas on behalf of its investors. These volumes are included under Coillte in all of the tables and analyses in this report, as the land belongs to Coillte, even though the decision when to harvest rests with IForUT. Followingtheclearfelloftheseareas,thelandsreverttoCoilltewhichhasthereplantingobligation.AsimilarsituationrelatestothoseareasoftheCoillteestatewhereAIBInvestmentManagershavepurchasedtheharvestingrights.

Private Sector roI: The COFORD-funded private sector forecast 2009-2028 data, which were smoothed at national level, were used (Phillips et al. 2009). These included reductions in volume to take account of harvest losses which varied with harvest type and species. The private sector forecast (Phillips et al. 2009) highlighted the lack of information on the accessibility of private forests. The forecast volumes were adjusted to exclude thinnings from small plots and those plantations with a potential uneconomic forest roading requirement.

coillte: Coillte publishes a volume forecast based on forest management plans for the forests under its stewardship every fiveyearswiththemostrecentbeingForecast2011(Coillte2011).Thisprovidesdetailedvolumeinformationforyears2011-2015.Fortheperiod2016to2020,annualestmatesareprovided,whilefor2020to2025anaveragefiveyearfigureisprovided.Althoughthepublisheddataarefora15yearperiod,thereareunpublishedforecastvolumesavailableforafurtherfiveyears. Coillte revised its forecast estimates to (a) include only volumes from Coillte-owned forests, (b) take account of harvest losses, (c) exclude those areas2 which for a variety of reasons, principally accessibility, are unlikely to be harvestable based on a continuation of current conditions and (d) provide a further volume assortment category (tip-7 cm). In addition, Coillte adjusted the forecast volumes to provide an estimate for the last two years, i.e. 2027 and 2028, of this series of forecast tables. Coillte does not currently estimate the volume for broadleaved species in its forecasts but has plans to do so in the near future.

1 The volumes available for processing exclude hardwoods and firewood. The data for 2009 are provisional and the best available on 15-09-2010. The forecast volumes for private sector ROI in 2007 and 2008 are from Gallagher and O’Carroll 2001 and have been adjusted for harvest loss, while for 2009 volumes are from Phillips et al. 2009.2 Coillte estimates based on historical analysis that these areas can account for between 100,000 to 150,000 m3 per annum.

Table 1: Forecast of net volume and actual harvest volume1 (000 m3).

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Northern Ireland Forest Service and Private Sector: Northern Ireland (NI) production forecast data are based on softwood availability from the Northern Ireland Forest Service (NIFS) and potential softwood availability from the private sector within Northern Ireland. These data are maintained in a manner consistent with the requirements of the UK Forecast of SoftwoodAvailability(Halsalletal.2005).ThesoftwoodavailabilityvolumeestimatesforNorthernIrelandarecalculatedto the top-diameter classes reported in the UK forecast. The NI top diameter volume estimates have been re-aligned with thetopdiameterclassesfromotherdatasourcesusedinthisforecastandthere-alignedvolumefiguresarecontainedintherelevant tables in this report, accordingly due to the differing conventions used to derive volume size assortments within theUKandROI,itshouldbenotedthattheNIfiguresinthetablesarebasedontheapproachoutlinedinthefollowingsection. The Northern Ireland forecast volumes are compiled using a methodology appropriate to reporting at regional level only and are presented in the tables accordingly. Volumes were adjusted to take account of harvest losses using reduction factors similar to those outlined in the ROI private sector geospatial forecast (Phillips et al. 2009).

aSSortmeNt VolumeSCoillte and the ROI private sector forecast use Irish based assortment tables for Sitka spruce (Jordan 1992) and Forestry Commission assortment tables for all other species. The Northern Ireland forecast uses assortments for all species derived from theForestryCommission tables.Significantdifferences involumeswithin size categories canarisedependingonthe assortment tables used. For example, when the private sector forecast for the ROI was run using only the Forestry Commission assortment tables, the volume in the 20+ cm assortment category was reduced by 18.2%.while the volumes in the energy (tip–13 cm), 7–13 cm and 14–19 cm categories increased by 12.5%, 2.6% and 5.1% respectively over the forecast period. To convert the NIFS forecast volumes to assortment categories comparable with other data sources the following approach was adopted. • Thevolumesinthe14-16cmand16-18cmcategorieswereaddedtoprovideanestimateofthevolumefrom14to18cm; • TheaverageclearfellvolumesperhectarewereestimatedbasedonNIFSannualreportsfortheprevioustenyears; • The range of clearfell mean dbh values associated with the clearfell volumes was estimated from the Forestry Commissionyieldtables(ForestryCommission1981); • Thevolumeassortmentforthe20+cmcategoryfortherangeofmeandiameterswasidentified.Thevolumeinthe 18-20cmwasobtainedbysubtraction; • An estimate of the percentage volume for each size assortment was determined and compared with previously publishedassortmentdata(GallagherandO’Carroll2001)forNIforvalidation;and • Afinalestimatewasdetermined. The resulting assortment volumes based on the approach outlined above should be treated as indicative only.

Sawable VolumeThe sawmilling industry relies on forecast volumes to estimate future supplies of raw material and to plan future investment and marketing. Thus they are primarily interested in the conversion of the 14-19 cm and 20 cm + assortment volumes to sawable raw material which they can process. Coillte has over the years collated information on the product outturn e.g. sawlog, pulp and stake from its timber sales and uses this information to estimate the potential end product (PEP) obtainable from the standard size assortments as part

When comparing tables for Coillte volume in this all Ireland forecast and Coillte’s Roundwood Supply Forecast 2011-2015, it is important to note that the Coillte data in both documents use the same information but they are presented in a different manner as outlined below.

All Ireland Forecast 2011-2028 Coillte Forecast 2011

Farm Partnership volumes Excluded from the Coillte forecast as this

volume is part of ‘ROI Private’ volume.

Included in Coillte Forecast 2011.

IForUT volumes Included in the Coillte forecast where

Coillte owns the land

Excluded from Coillte Forecast unless

otherwise stated.

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of its forecasting process. The sawable volume, i.e. the volumes greater than 14 cm top diameter that convert to sawlogs, depends on a combination of (a) species, (b) stage of harvesting (tree size) and (c) stand quality. The percentage of the 14 cm plus assortment volume that converts to sawable material is relatively consistent for spruce over the period of Coillte’s forecast but can vary widely year on year for the other tree species. The conversion factors for the three species groups (spruces, lodgepole pine and other conifers) is provided in Table 2. Historically between 65-70% of the 14 cm plus size assortments converts to sawable volume. Further research and testing is required before the factors in Table 2 can be used to generate all Ireland forecast tables of sawable volumes. The very poor conversion for pine within the Coillte estate relates to the high proportion of south coastal provenance of lodgepole pine and to crops which have been prematurely clearfelled in the recent past, often with severe basal sweep.

Forecast of standing volume

The volume forecasts from the three data sources were combined to provide an all Ireland forecast of standing volume. The total forecast of standing volume on the island of Ireland greater than or equal to 7 cm top diameter over the forecast period is 95.47 million m3 (Figure 1 and Table 3). This excludes small volumes of broadleaves apart from those included in theprivatesectorROIvolume.Anadditional2.94millionm3 is potentially available in the tip–7 cm category. The forecast volume increases from an estimated 4.46 million m3 in 2011 to 7.38 million m3in2028.AlmostallofthisincreaseinvolumeisfromtheprivatesectorintheROIandreflectstheuptakeinprivateplantingfromthelate1980sonwards. Anestimated43.89millionm3 or 46% of the total standing forecast volume is in the 20 cm + assortment with 29.11 million m3 in the 14-19 cm assortment and 22.46 million m3 in the 7-13 cm assortment.

the three species groups (spruces, lodgepole pine and other conifers) is provided in Table 2. Historically between 65-70%of the 14 cm plus size assortments converts to sawable volume. Further research and testing is required before the factorsin Table 2 can be used to generate all-Ireland forecast tables of sawable volumes. The very poor conversion for pine withinthe Coillte estate relates to the high proportion of south coastal provenance of lodgepole pine and to crops which have beenprematurely clearfelled in the recent past, often with severe basal sweep.

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Figure 1: Forecast of Standing Volume.

Table 2: Percentage of Volume >=14 cm that Potentially Converts to Sawable Material.

Harvesting Stage

Species Group First Thinning Other Thinnings Clearfell

Spruce 40% 55% 90%

Pine 0% 0% 10%

Other Conifers 35% 50% 80%

Forecast of Standing VolumeThe volume forecasts from the three data sources were combined to provide an all-Ireland forecast of standing volume.The total forecast of standing volume on the island of Ireland greater than or equal to 7 cm top diameter over the forecastperiod is 99.72 million m3 (Figure 1 and Table 3). This excludes small volumes of broadleaves apart from those includedin the private sector ROI volume. An additional 3.1 million m3 is potentially available in the tip – 7 cm category. Theforecast volume increases from an estimated 4.27 million m3 in 2010 to 7.38 million m3 in 2028.Almost all of this increasein volume is from the private sector in the ROI and reflects the uptake in private planting from the late 1980s onwards.

An estimated 46.51 million m3 or 47% of the total standing forecast volume is in the 20 cm + assortment with 29.93 millionm3 in the 14-19 cm assortment and 23.28 million m3 in the 7-13 cm assortment.

40%

0%

35%

55%

0%

50%

90%

10%

80%

Figure 1: Forecast of standing volume production 2011-2028.

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6 7

Forecast of net realisable volume

Anumberofadjustmentsweremadetotheforecastofstandingvolumetoestimatethenetrealisablevolume(Figure2).Thestanding volumes were reduced to take account of losses during harvesting and provide an estimate of the net volume. The sizeoftheharvestlossvarieswithharvesttypeandspecies,beinggreaterforfirstandsecondthinningsandforlodgepolepine. Coillte used its own in-house reduction factors based on their ongoing analysis of standing volume compared with invoiced volume. The ROI private sector volumes were adjusted using the reduction factors in the private sector forecast (Phillips et al. 2009). These two sets of reduction factors are very similar and there are only minor differences which did not impact on overall adjusted volumes. The standing volumes for NIFS and private sector NI were adjusted using the same factors as those for the private sector ROI.

Harvest losses may reduce over time due to improvements in technology and/or harvesting practices. No reduction in harvest losses was assumed and the factors were applied equally to all years within the forecast period. The private sector ROI forecast (Phillips et al. 2009) highlighted the lack of reliable information on accessibility of privately-owned plantations. Based on a geospatial analysis, the forecast volumes were adjusted to exclude thinnings from small plots and those plantations with a potential uneconomic forest roading requirement. These areas were assigned a no-thinning regime and assumed to be harvestable at time of clearfell. This resulted in an estimate of the net realisable volume which showed a reduction of 32% in thinning volumes and an increase of 42% in clearfell volumes over the forecast period. The overall net impact was a reduction of 3.8% in total volume. Approximately100,000 to150,000m3 of Coillte’s forecast volume on an annual basis is not harvested due mainly toaccessibilitydifficulties.Coillte,insofaraswaspossible,identifiedtheseareasandadjustedthenetforecastvolumesaccordingly to provide an estimate of the net realisable volume.

Forecast of Net Realisable VolumeA number of adjustments were made to the forecast of standing volume to estimate the net realisable volume (Figure 2).The standing volumes were reduced to take account of losses during harvesting and provide an estimate of the net volume.The size of the harvest loss varies with harvest type and species, being greater for first and second thinnings and forlodgepole pine. Coillte used its own in-house reduction factors based on their ongoinganalysis of standing volume compared with invoiced volume. The ROI private sectorvolumes were adjusted using the reduction factors in the private sector forecast (Phillips etal. 2009). These two sets of reduction factors are very similar and there are only minordifferences which did not impact on overall adjusted volumes. The standing volumes forNIFS and private sector NI were adjusted using the same factors as those for the privatesector ROI.

Harvest losses may reduce over time due to improvements in technology and or harvestingpractices. No reduction in harvest losses was assumed and the factors were applied equallyto all years within the forecast period.

The private sector ROI forecast (Phillips et al. 2009) highlighted the lack of reliable information on accessibility of privatelyowned plantations. Based on a geospatial analysis, the forecast volumes were adjusted to exclude thinnings from small plotsand those plantations with a potential uneconomic forest roading requirement. These areas were assigned a no thinningregime and assumed to be harvestable at time of clearfell. This resulted in an estimate of the net realisable volume whichshowed a reduction of 32% in thinning volumes and an increase of 40% in clearfell volumes over the forecast period. Theoverall net impact was a reduction of 4.3% in total volume.

Approximately 100,000 to 150,000 m3 of Coillte’s forecast volume on an annual basis is not harvested due mainly toaccessibility difficulties. Coillte, in so far as was possible, identified these areas and adjusted the net forecast volumesaccordingly to provide an estimate of the net realisable volume.

7

Net RealisableVolume: The

estimated roundwoodvolume that will

potentially be availableto the end user.

Figure 2: Methodology to Forecast Net Realisable Volume.

HarvestLosses

Accessibility+

Other Factors

ForecastStanding Volume

ForecastNet Realisable

Volume

ForecastNet

Volume

2007-2009Harvested

Volume

Range4.5% to 25%

Varies with harvest stage and species

Range0% to 25%

Varies with harvest areaand roading infrastructure

77% - 91% Forecast

Net Volume

Figure 2: Methodology to forecast net realisable volume.

Net realisable volume: the estimated roundwood volume that will potentially be available to the end user.

Page 16: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

8 9

The net forecast volumes for NIFS were not adjusted as issues around accessibility were already taken into account in the underlying forecast data. The harvested volumes for the three years 2007 to 2009 varied from 77% to 91% of the forecast net volume (Table 1). The2008-2009periodwascharacterisedbyverydifficultmarketconditionsforroundwood.Actualharvestedvolumeswillvary depending on future market conditions and may be smaller or greater than the net realisable volume. Tables 4 to 7 provide an estimate of the potential net realisable volume for the island of Ireland by size assortment, species and harvest type while Table 8 provides an estimate of the harvest areas for thinnings and clearfell. Tables 9 to 16 provide a forecast of potential net realisable volumes at county level for a number of assortment categories and for the main species groups. Northern Ireland is included as a separate entry in these tables. While the Coillte data has been smoothed at national level during the compilation of the stand data used to generate the Forecast 2006, no smoothing was undertaken for the private sector ROI forecast volumes at a county level (Phillips et al. 2009). Due to this non-smoothing of the private sector forecast data, there are minor differences in the total volumes between the county and national forecasts. Appendix1providesadetailedbreakdownoftheforecastvolumesfortheROIbythinningcategoryandbyclearfell.There is an increasing need to inform policy makers, academia and potential investors on the potential availability of wood fibrevolumes forenergyuse.Toaddress this requirement,anAddendumprovidinganestimateofpotentialwoodfibreavailability for energy has been added to this report. The total forecast of net realisable volume production for the island of Ireland is estimated as being 85.06 million m3 with an additional 2.40 million m3 potentially available in the tip-7 cm category. The forecast volume increases from 3.79 million m3 in 2011 to 6.95 million m3 in 2028. While the volumes available within the ROI almost double over the forecast period, increasing from 3.35 million m3 in 2010 to 6.41 million m3 in 2028, due to increased volumes from the private sector, the volumes available within NI show only a moderate increase of the order of 20%, increasing from 0.45 million m3 in 2011 to 0.54 million m3 in 2028.

Figure 3: Forecast of net realisable volume production, 2011-2028.

Vo

lum

e (0

00 m

3 o

verb

ank)

Private sector ROI

Private sector NI

Coillte

NIFS

Total volume

Despite the almost doubling of the all Ireland forecast total net realisable volume by 2028, there is a more modest increase in volume in the 7-13 cm assortment of the order of 30%, with the volume within this category peaking at 1.19 million m3in2020(Table4andFigure4).Forecastvolumeinthe14-19cmassortmentshowsasignificantincreasefrom1.08 million m3 in 2011 to 2.0 million m3 in 2028, while the volume in the 20 cm plus assortment more than doubles from 1.88 million m3 to 3.92 million m3 within the same period.

1 8

Page 17: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

8 9

Figure 4: Forecast of net realisable volume by size category, 2011-2028.

Vo

lum

e (0

00 m

3 o

verb

ank)

Figure 5: Forecast of net realisable volume by species category, 2011-2028.

Vo

lum

e (0

00 m

3 o

verb

ank)

Spruce

Lodgepole pine

Other conifers

AlthoughtherehavebeenmajorchangesinsupportmeasurestoencouragetheplantingofbroadleavesandmorediverseconiferspeciesoverthepasttentofifteenyearswithintheROI,thishasnotimpactedsignificantlyontheforecastvolumeby species group. Spruce, which includes all spruce species, with an estimated total volume production of 70.36 million m3 over the forecast period continues to dominate forecast volumes, accounting for 84% of forecast conifer production (Table 6 and Figure 5). Lodgepole pine with 7.84 million m3 accounts for almost 9% of total forecast volume, while the “Other Conifers” species group with 5.66 million m3 accounts for 7%.

1 8

1 8

20 cm+

7-13 cm

14-19 cm

tip-7 cm

Top diameter category

Page 18: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

10 11

Figure 6: Forecast of harvest areas (ha).

Thinnings

Clearfell

Volume from thinnings, excluding the private sector NI, totals 27.45 million m3 and increases from 0.91 million m3 in 2011 to a peak of 1.92 million m3 in 2028 (Table 7). The proportion of thinning volume to total volume increases up to 2022 and then begins to decline as more clearfell volume becomes available from the private sector in the ROI. It is important to notethatthevolumesassociatedwithsecond,thirdandsubsequentthinningsaredirectlydependantuponthefirstthinningbeing undertaken. While the ROI private sector volumes have been adjusted to allow for accessibility, they are based on the assumptionofcontinuedstatesupportforforestroads.Theimpactofanyfurtherreductioninfirstthinningareaswouldbegreatestoverthefirsttenyearsandwouldlessenduringthesecondhalfoftheforecastasincreasedareasareclearfelleddueto non thin crops being assigned a shorter rotation length. Clearfells, excluding the private sector NI, account for 57.28 million m3 and annual clearfell volumes remain relatively stable around 2.5 million m3 up to 2020 and thereafter increase to 5.01 million m3 in 2028 having peaked at 5.37 million m3 in the previous year. The volume available from clearfells, assumes a continuation of the current clearfell silvicultural system.Anysignificantchangetocontinuouscovertypesilviculturalsystemswouldimpactontherelativevolumesfromclearfells and thinnings. The total annual thinning area is estimated to increase from 22,800 ha in 2011 to 49,400 ha by 2028 with the most significantincreasecomingfromtheROIprivatesector(Table8andFigure6).Clearfellareasincontrastfluctuatewithintherange7,200hato8,100haupto2018andshowasignificantincreasethereafterduetotheforecastclearfellofnothincrops in the private sector.

Atacountylevel,Corkwithanestimatedtotalpotentialvolumeof9.01millionm3, is the largest contributor to total net realisable volume (Table 9) followed by Donegal (6.42 million m3), Galway (6.04 million m3), Clare (5.25 million m3), Kerry (5.21 million m3) and Tipperary (5.19 million m3). Tables 10 through to 13 show the breakdown of forecast potential volume production by size assortment, including tip-7 cm. Regarding forecast net realisable volume by size assortment category (Tables 10 to 13) counties Cork (7.11 million m3), Donegal (4.72 million m3), Galway (4.66 million m3), Clare (4.14 million m3), Wicklow (4.05 million m3) and Tipperary (4.03 million m3) are the major contributors for volume assortments 14 cm and greater. The forecast net realisable volume for spruce species (Table 14) follows a broadly similar pattern to total volume production with counties Cork (7.80 million m3), Donegal (5.12 million m3), Clare (4.60 million m3), Galway (4.53 million m3), Kerry (4.51 million m3) and Tipperary (4.21 million m3) being the major contributors to spruce volume. The forecast of potential lodgepole pine production (Table 15) is concentrated in a relatively small number of counties Mayo (1.89 million m3), Galway (1.25 million m3) and Donegal (1.03 million m3).

1 8

Page 19: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

10 11

References

Coillte 2011. Forecast 2011: Roundwood Supply Forecast 2011-2015.

Eoin O’Driscoll, Drima Marketing, Goatstown, Dublin. www.drima.com

Forestry Commission 1981. Yield Models for Forest Management. Forestry Commission Booklet No. 48. HM Stationery Office,London

Gallagher, G. and J. O’Carroll, 2001. Forecast of Roundwood Production from the Forests of Ireland 2001-2015. COFORD, Dublin

Halsall, L., Gilbert, J., Matthews, R. and Fairgrieve, M. (2005). United Kingdom: New Forecast of Softwood Availability. Downloadable from www.forestry.gov.uk/pdf/pf2005.pdf/$FILE/pf2005.pdf

Jordan, P. 1992. Volume Assortment Tables for Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis Bong. Carr.) in Ireland.M..Agr.Sc.(Forestry)Thesis. National University of Ireland. 133p

Phillips,H.,Redmond,J.,MacSiúrtáin,M.andNemesova,A.2009.Roundwood production from private sector forests 2009-2028. A geospatial forecast. COFORD, Dublin

Page 20: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

12 13

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cm

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20cm

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7cm

7-13

cm

14-1

9 cm

20cm

+T

ip -

7cm

7-13

cm

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9 cm

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cm

14-1

8 cm

19-2

0 cm

20cm

+T

ip -

7cm

7-13

cm

14-1

9 cm

20cm

+

2011

6438

714

594

02

711

6762

398

01,

759

979

8456

233

141

1,09

11,

272

2,09

7

2012

6237

616

085

02

711

6264

598

01,

488

1210

011

267

300

136

1,12

31,

326

1,88

3

2013

6033

216

412

80

27

1163

620

971

1,54

212

100

112

6730

013

51,

053

1,32

21,

981

2014

6437

723

963

02

711

6562

999

21,

627

1210

011

267

300

141

1,10

81,

417

2,00

1

2015

7142

228

678

02

711

6469

897

01,

538

1210

011

267

300

148

1,22

11,

442

1,92

7

2016

8149

031

795

02

711

6267

898

61,

426

1210

011

267

300

155

1,27

01,

490

1,83

1

2017

9155

436

810

40

27

1161

672

937

1,43

410

8210

462

324

163

1,31

01,

479

1,87

4

2018

8650

828

417

00

27

1162

688

947

1,46

610

8210

462

324

159

1,28

01,

405

1,97

1

2019

9958

840

722

80

27

1163

674

979

1,48

510

8210

462

324

172

1,34

61,

559

2,04

8

2020

109

696

627

329

02

711

6471

398

31,

481

1082

104

6232

418

31,

492

1,78

22,

146

2021

113

686

607

381

02

711

6367

394

01,

528

1082

104

6232

418

71,

443

1,72

02,

244

2022

116

711

638

383

02

711

6362

691

91,

616

969

8456

320

189

1,40

81,

704

2,33

0

2023

111

646

679

578

02

711

6358

891

41,

661

969

8456

320

184

1,30

51,

740

2,57

0

2024

106

656

701

586

02

711

6458

190

21,

724

969

8456

320

179

1,30

81,

750

2,64

1

2025

9458

774

678

30

27

1164

550

893

1,74

29

6984

5632

016

71,

207

1,78

72,

856

2026

9458

279

294

20

27

1161

513

863

2,22

89

6984

5632

016

51,

166

1,80

33,

501

2027

9756

21,

025

1,29

50

27

1161

513

863

2,22

810

7694

5932

216

81,

152

2,04

83,

856

2028

103

590

1,04

01,

576

02

711

6151

386

32,

228

1076

9459

322

174

1,18

02,

063

4,13

7

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621

9,74

99,

224

7,89

97

3213

019

81,

132

11,1

9716

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30,2

0418

31,

485

1,77

21,

102

5,59

42,

943

22,4

6329

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43,8

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vol

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in t

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cat

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the

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are

an

aver

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of th

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Tabl

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For

ecas

t of p

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tand

ing

volu

me

prod

uctio

n by

ass

ortm

ent c

ateg

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(000

m3

over

bark

).

Page 21: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

12 13

Pri

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TO

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7-13

cm

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cm

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9 cm

20cm

+T

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7cm

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cm

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9 cm

20cm

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7cm

7-13

cm

14-1

9 cm

20cm

+T

ip -

7cm

7-13

cm

14-1

9 cm

20cm

+

2011

3922

590

550

27

1060

534

853

1,59

29

7513

222

010

883

51,

083

1,87

7

2012

3922

510

257

02

710

5555

284

81,

337

1194

169

283

105

873

1,12

61,

686

2013

3519

010

673

02

710

5653

585

51,

409

1194

169

283

102

820

1,13

71,

775

2014

4122

915

045

02

710

5854

387

11,

492

1194

169

283

110

868

1,19

71,

830

2015

4726

418

357

02

710

5759

884

41,

402

1194

169

283

115

958

1,20

31,

751

2016

5229

719

672

02

710

5558

385

91,

293

1194

169

283

118

976

1,23

11,

658

2017

6437

728

491

02

710

5458

082

61,

316

1077

157

306

128

1,03

61,

273

1,72

3

2018

5631

719

112

20

27

1055

592

828

1,34

610

7715

730

612

298

81,

182

1,78

4

2019

6536

629

019

50

27

1056

584

864

1,36

210

7715

730

613

11,

029

1,31

71,

873

2020

7849

248

626

20

27

1057

616

865

1,36

210

7715

730

614

51,

187

1,51

41,

940

2021

8548

555

546

30

27

1057

585

833

1,41

110

7715

730

615

21,

150

1,55

12,

190

2022

8448

352

840

40

27

1057

546

816

1,50

28

6513

230

215

01,

096

1,48

42,

218

2023

9350

278

484

80

27

1058

516

817

1,55

18

6513

230

216

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084

1,74

12,

711

2024

8449

065

761

70

27

1058

507

800

1,59

58

6513

230

215

11,

064

1,59

52,

524

2025

7242

763

470

30

27

1057

478

789

1,59

88

6513

230

213

897

21,

561

2,61

2

2026

7644

171

588

60

27

1054

444

756

1,98

58

6513

230

213

995

11,

609

3,18

3

2027

101

544

1,20

91,

605

02

710

5444

475

61,

985

971

144

304

164

1,06

02,

115

3,90

4

2028

9651

91,

090

1,62

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1,98

59

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1,99

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8,17

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9,68

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2,71

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For

estr

y C

omm

issi

on a

ssor

tmen

t ta

bles

and

mea

n cl

earf

ell d

iam

eter

s fr

om n

o

th

in y

ield

tabl

es fo

r S

itka

Spr

uce.

3 C

oillt

e T

he v

olum

es a

re f

or c

onife

rs o

nly

and

are

base

d on

Coi

llte’

s pu

blis

hed

10 y

ear

fore

cast

plu

s C

oillt

e’s

draf

t re

vise

d fo

reca

st a

nd r

efer

exc

lusi

vely

to

volu

mes

com

ing

from

lan

ds

owne

d by

Coi

llte.

The

vol

umes

for

year

s 20

18 a

nd o

nwar

ds a

re e

stim

ates

.

4 N

IFS

T

he v

olum

es a

re b

ased

on

the

NIF

S fo

reca

st (

Tabl

e 3)

. For

ecas

t val

ues

for

2027

and

202

8 ar

e an

ave

rage

of t

he p

revi

ous

10-y

ear

perio

d.

Tabl

e 4:

For

ecas

t of p

oten

tial n

et r

ealis

able

vol

ume

prod

uctio

n by

ass

ortm

ent c

ateg

ory

(000

m3

over

bark

).

Page 22: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

14 15

Private Sector ROI Private Sector NI Coillte NIFS TOTALS

Year ≥ 7 cm Tip - 7cm ≥ 7 cm Tip - 7cm ≥ 7 cm Tip - 7cm ≥ 7 cm Tip - 7cm ≥ 7 cm Tip - 7cm

2011 371 39.3 18 0.4 2,979 59.6 427 8.5 3,794 108

2012 384 39.2 18 0.4 2,737 54.7 546 10.9 3,685 105

2013 369 35.1 18 0.4 2,798 56.0 546 10.9 3,732 102

2014 425 40.9 18 0.4 2,906 58.1 546 10.9 3,895 110

2015 504 47.0 18 0.4 2,844 56.9 546 10.9 3,913 115

2016 565 52.1 18 0.4 2,735 54.7 546 10.9 3,864 118

2017 753 63.9 18 0.4 2,722 54.4 540 9.7 4,033 128

2018 630 56.4 18 0.4 2,766 55.3 540 9.7 3,954 122

2019 852 65.0 18 0.4 2,810 56.2 540 9.7 4,220 131

2020 1,240 78.4 18 0.4 2,842 56.8 540 9.7 4,640 145

2021 1,504 85.0 18 0.4 2,829 56.6 540 9.7 4,891 152

2022 1,416 83.6 18 0.4 2,864 57.3 499 8.5 4,798 150

2023 2,135 93.1 18 0.4 2,884 57.7 499 8.5 5,536 160

2024 1,763 84.4 18 0.4 2,902 58.0 499 8.5 5,183 151

2025 1,763 72.1 18 0.4 2,865 57.3 499 8.5 5,146 138

2026 2,042 75.9 18 0.4 3,184 54.0 499 8.5 5,744 139

2027 3,357 100.9 18 0.4 3,184 54.0 520 9.1 7,079 164

2028 3,229 96.2 18 0.4 3,184 54.0 520 9.1 6,950 160

Totals 23,301 1,209 329 7 52,034 1,012 9,393 172 85,057 2,399

Table 5: Forecast of potential net realisable volume production - total volume and volume tip-7 cm (000 m3 overbark).

Notes

1 Private sector NI The volume in the tip-7 cm category is estimated as being 2% of the total volume greater than 7 cm top diameter.

2 NIFS The volume in the tip-7 cm category is estimated as being 2% of the total volume greater than 7 cm top diameter.

Page 23: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

14 15

Private Sector ROI Coillte NIFS TOTALS

Year Spruce Pine OC Spruce Pine OC Spruce Pine OC Spruce Pine OC

2011 333 11 10 2,523 256 199 380 10 37 3,237 277 246

2012 298 8 64 2,246 320 170 497 15 34 3,041 343 269

2013 256 12 21 2,320 312 166 497 15 34 3,074 338 222

2014 357 10 23 2,403 314 189 497 15 34 3,256 339 246

2015 416 39 18 2,374 270 199 497 15 34 3,287 325 252

2016 493 15 27 2,179 325 230 497 15 34 3,169 355 292

2017 451 202 74 2,275 280 167 491 16 32 3,218 498 273

2018 486 29 44 2,292 276 198 491 16 32 3,269 322 275

2019 707 50 45 2,337 281 192 491 16 32 3,535 348 269

2020 694 472 33 2,289 309 244 491 16 32 3,475 796 310

2021 1,235 158 68 2,348 244 237 491 16 32 4,074 419 337

2022 1,108 170 98 2,354 281 229 454 22 23 3,916 474 350

2023 1,884 123 59 2,413 263 207 454 22 23 4,751 408 288

2024 1,349 236 119 2,436 236 230 454 22 23 4,240 494 372

2025 1,274 327 111 2,396 249 220 454 22 23 4,124 598 354

2026 1,618 302 68 2,753 228 203 454 22 23 4,825 552 293

2027 2,607 238 473 2,753 228 203 473 23 24 5,833 489 700

2028 2,812 218 89 2,753 228 203 473 23 24 6,038 469 316

Totals 18,379 2,620 1,445 43,446 4,902 3,686 8,539 320 534 70,363 7,842 5,665

Notes

1 Private sector NI No breakdown of volume by species group is available.

2 Private sector ROI The broadleaf volume totals 1.50 million m3 over the forecast period. Average annual volumes during the first four

years and subsequent five year periods are 56,000 m3, 68,000 m3, 69,000 m3 and 87,000 m3.

3 Coillte Coillte plan to include broadleaves in future forecasts. Broadleaf volumes within the forecast period are expected

to be relatively small and of the order of a few thousand m3 at most per annum.

4 NIFS The NIFS will include broadleaves in future forecasts. Analysis of broadleaf sales over the past ten years indicates

an annual average volume of less than 1,000 m3.

5 Pine The volume refers to lodgepole pine only. Scots pine and other pine species are included under “Other Confiers”.

Table 6: Forecast of potential conifer net realisable volume production by species group (000 m3 overbark).

Page 24: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

16 17

Private Sector ROI Coillte NIFS TOTALS

Year Thinnings Clearfell Thinnings Clearfell Thinnings Clearfell Thinnings Clearfell

2011 308 63 588 2,391 11 416 906 2,870

2012 321 63 693 2,044 14 532 1,028 2,639

2013 328 40 680 2,119 14 532 1,022 2,692

2014 391 34 761 2,144 14 532 1,166 2,711

2015 469 35 873 1,971 14 532 1,356 2,538

2016 511 54 874 1,861 14 532 1,399 2,447

2017 511 241 894 1,828 14 526 1,419 2,595

2018 527 103 959 1,807 14 526 1,500 2,436

2019 638 213 1,002 1,809 14 526 1,654 2,548

2020 631 609 1,058 1,784 14 526 1,703 2,919

2021 731 773 1,056 1,773 14 526 1,801 3,072

2022 766 650 1,029 1,835 13 486 1,808 2,971

2023 658 1,477 1,018 1,866 13 486 1,689 3,829

2024 765 998 1,013 1,889 13 486 1,791 3,374

2025 726 1,038 990 1,875 13 486 1,728 3,399

2026 689 1,353 1,166 2,018 13 486 1,868 3,858

2027 514 2,843 1,166 2,018 13 506 1,693 5,368

2028 738 2,491 1,166 2,018 13 506 1,917 5,015

Totals 10,223 13,077 16,985 35,049 241 9,152 27,449 57,278

Table 7: Forecast of potential net realisable volume production by harvest type (000 m3 overbark).

Notes

1 Private sector ROI No breakdown of volume by harvest type is available. However, the proportion of volume from thinnings is likely to

be relatively small.

2 NIFS The thinning volume is estimated as being of the order of 2.56% of total volume production and is based on the

volume outturns published by the NIFS for the period 1999-2008 inclusive.

3 Private ROI A more detailed table is included in Appendix 1.

4 Coillte A more detailed table is included in Appendix 1.

Page 25: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

16 17

Private Sector ROI Coillte NIFS TOTALS

Year Thinnings Clearfell Thinnings Clearfell Thinnings Clearfell Thinnings Clearfell

2011 7,627 168 14,941 7,722 211 924 22,778 8,814

2012 9,128 172 17,174 6,637 270 1,276 26,572 8,085

2013 8,795 105 16,359 6,273 270 1,276 25,425 7,655

2014 9,555 91 17,982 6,748 270 1,276 27,806 8,115

2015 11,959 93 20,688 5,882 270 1,276 32,917 7,252

2016 12,979 142 20,772 6,659 270 1,276 34,021 8,077

2017 13,791 1,262 21,227 5,630 267 1,198 35,285 8,090

2018 13,108 283 22,428 6,007 267 1,198 35,803 7,488

2019 15,683 579 23,469 5,688 267 1,198 39,419 7,465

2020 15,508 2,611 25,061 6,266 267 1,198 40,835 10,075

2021 18,120 2,311 24,784 6,195 267 1,198 43,171 9,704

2022 19,976 1,929 24,449 6,016 247 1,026 44,672 8,970

2023 17,539 4,174 23,745 5,850 247 1,026 41,531 11,050

2024 18,702 2,951 24,352 5,957 247 1,026 43,301 9,934

2025 17,811 3,337 23,659 5,993 247 1,026 41,717 10,357

2026 17,343 3,909 30,411 5,929 247 1,026 48,001 10,864

2027 13,713 8,359 30,411 5,929 257 1,013 44,381 15,301

2028 18,690 6,561 30,411 5,929 257 1,013 49,357 13,503

Totals 260,027 39,037 412,323 111,309 4,640 20,450 676,990 170,796

Notes

1 Private sector ROI No breakdown of area by harvest type is available.

2 NIFS The clearfell areas are based on NIFS forest management plans. The thinning area is based on an analysis of the

harvesting outturns provided in the NIFS annual reports for the period 1999-2008 inclusive.

3 Coillte The thinning and clearfell areas are based on Coillte forest management plans.

Table 8: Forecast of potential harvest areas by harvest type (ha).

Page 26: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

18 19

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Co

un

ty /

No

rth

ern

Ir

elan

dP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

S

Car

low

1

26

2

20

2

34

3

31

5

39

1

26

4

43

5

34

3

49

Cav

an 6

5

3 9

5

9 7

5

8 1

4 6

1 1

6 4

9 1

2 3

0 2

2 3

5 2

3 3

4 2

9 5

0

Cla

re 2

4 1

76

27

159

2

9 1

84

36

148

7

7 1

54

66

181

7

2 1

93

55

161

7

6 1

29

Co

rk 2

2 4

06

30

368

3

2 4

02

31

427

5

3 4

59

39

274

7

0 3

92

65

336

6

3 3

13

Do

neg

al 1

4 2

61

22

230

1

4 1

91

21

169

3

0 1

91

46

263

7

1 2

62

48

271

4

6 2

89

Du

blin

4

7

3

7

2

19

0

5

2

15

6

8

4

3

2

13

2

5

Gal

way

17

289

2

8 2

64

13

244

2

1 2

46

30

255

2

3 4

10

42

300

4

3 2

63

46

277

Ker

ry 4

3 1

64

60

134

3

3 1

67

34

126

7

1 1

77

66

162

9

2 1

96

67

174

6

5 2

02

Kild

are

10

19

7

23

4

39

4

35

5

7

3

14

6

18

5

11

8

18

Kilk

enn

y 8

8

7 6

7

6 5

9

2 1

2 6

7 2

0 4

7 2

0 7

2 2

5 5

8 1

3 6

8 2

0 7

2

Lao

is 1

0 1

04

5

109

8

1

04

10

105

2

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32

20

110

1

8 8

8 1

8 1

26

14

149

Lei

trim

27

112

2

2 1

22

28

137

2

6 9

7 4

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06

29

91

41

78

41

90

63

72

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eric

k 8

1

06

9

97

12

92

17

116

2

0 1

08

18

53

27

87

24

83

32

79

Lo

ng

ford

4

41

6

38

5

35

5

34

7

28

9

24

9

20

8

15

11

16

Lo

uth

0

14

0

15

1

8

1

20

1

15

0

5

2

3

2

4

1

11

May

o 3

3 9

1 1

5 1

25

13

128

1

7 1

46

37

140

4

3 1

24

36

160

3

3 1

78

50

182

Mea

th 1

2

2 2

6

2

3

8

6

5

2

3 4

9

7

-

7

2

1

2 3

Mo

nag

han

3

24

2

17

2

22

1

23

2

30

6

21

5

15

5

8

5

25

Off

aly

13

73

8

73

11

39

11

74

14

56

19

34

15

52

17

49

15

33

Ro

sco

mm

on

22

52

17

55

14

58

20

57

32

48

30

51

29

47

31

52

46

60

Slig

o 1

5 9

6 1

7 8

5 1

3 1

04

21

110

2

2 9

0 2

3 1

66

31

97

23

100

3

8 1

14

Tip

per

ary

18

221

1

4 2

34

15

235

2

4 2

74

42

156

3

3 2

02

41

188

3

3 1

92

46

191

Wat

erfo

rd 8

1

94

8

140

6

1

09

13

191

2

1 1

74

13

107

2

3 1

02

14

115

1

7 1

15

Wes

tmea

th 6

6

0 3

4

9 7

8

6 1

4 2

7 1

6 4

6 1

3 2

6 1

6 2

0 1

3 3

1 2

2 2

1

Wex

ford

3

47

2

50

3

34

8

69

11

79

6

58

12

48

9

85

15

102

Wic

klo

w 1

9 2

35

18

178

1

2 1

73

12

241

2

5 2

19

18

212

3

1 2

18

25

274

1

7 2

32

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

18

427

1

8 5

46

18

546

1

8 5

46

18

546

1

8 5

46

18

540

1

8 5

40

18

540

Tota

ls 3

59

3,4

05

360

3

,283

3

13

3,3

45

401

3

,452

6

49

3,3

90

583

3

,281

7

71

3,2

62

648

3

,306

7

81

3,3

50

Not

es

1 P

rivat

e se

ctor

RO

I T

he v

olum

es in

clud

e br

oadl

eave

s.

2 N

orth

ern

Irel

and

The

vol

umes

are

bas

ed o

n 2%

of t

otal

vol

ume

prod

uctio

n to

7 c

m to

p di

amet

er.

3 0

valu

e A

“0”

val

ue in

dica

tes

that

ther

e is

a fo

reca

st v

olum

e bu

t tha

t it i

s le

ss th

an 1

,000

m3 .

4 “-

” va

lue

A “

-” v

alue

indi

cate

s th

at th

ere

is a

zer

o fo

reca

st v

olum

e.

Tabl

e 9:

For

ecas

t of p

oten

tial t

otal

net

rea

lisab

le v

olum

e pr

oduc

tion

by c

ount

y (0

00 m

3 ov

erba

rk).

Page 27: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

18 19

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Tota

l 201

1-20

28

Co

un

ty /

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Car

low

7

24

10

32

16

19

12

41

17

47

18

41

13

42

28

42

13

42

159

6

33

Cav

an 3

9 5

0 4

3 6

1 3

9 3

4 7

3 7

7 6

4 4

8 7

6 4

2 4

6 6

0 8

7 6

0 5

4 6

0 6

60

920

Cla

re 1

61

200

1

31

170

1

02

197

1

97

133

1

12

200

1

43

178

1

97

229

3

25

229

1

70

229

2

,001

3

,250

Co

rk 1

39

326

1

57

330

1

21

369

2

45

406

1

24

417

1

97

411

1

40

412

3

62

412

2

53

412

2

,143

6

,869

Do

neg

al 1

07

272

1

11

334

1

20

327

9

9 2

65

118

2

77

205

2

74

112

3

36

239

3

36

111

3

36

1,5

34

4,8

86

Du

blin

6

13

6

37

3

8

5

21

2

4

4

11

5

11

12

11

11

11

77

212

Gal

way

122

1

93

74

207

6

0 2

09

113

1

84

151

1

82

133

2

00

154

2

20

420

2

20

166

2

20

1,6

56

4,3

84

Ker

ry 1

76

167

1

27

187

1

27

132

2

09

165

1

14

137

1

46

163

1

93

136

4

43

136

2

82

136

2

,349

2

,863

Kild

are

15

10

10

8

4

15

18

44

9

8

14

8

22

19

48

19

24

19

215

3

33

Kilk

enn

y 3

5 8

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1 4

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63

78

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9

3 9

5 9

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38

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is 4

3 1

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36

80

26

179

7

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01

54

98

45

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6

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133

1

48

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148

6

54

2,2

90

Lei

trim

93

123

7

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87

125

1

31

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57

108

9

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26

170

1

21

169

1

21

149

1

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1,3

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eric

k 5

1 6

9 6

1 9

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8 7

4 8

8 8

0 1

16

81

77

69

102

1

08

102

8

7 1

02

829

1

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Lo

ng

ford

27

26

15

12

13

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21

14

27

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23

19

27

22

65

22

39

22

320

4

32

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uth

2

11

3

5

1

6

3

5

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2

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1

6

6

6

1

6

29

155

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o 1

07

246

1

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7

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116

1

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1

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152

2

01

355

2

01

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01

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86

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th 1

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1

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1

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1

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1

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1

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1

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121

Mo

nag

han

7

17

13

40

8

12

11

21

8

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14

28

24

28

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28

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4

08

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aly

33

70

39

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35

41

44

44

39

41

52

37

44

58

149

5

8 6

3 5

8 6

19

939

Ro

sco

mm

on

78

61

55

56

63

47

102

5

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1 6

0 1

17

62

145

7

3 2

88

73

171

7

3 1

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1

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o 6

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10

60

138

6

2 1

17

68

67

65

141

7

6 9

7 1

02

120

1

74

120

1

01

120

9

71

1,9

91

Tip

per

ary

80

193

7

7 2

36

68

212

1

33

180

9

8 2

12

101

2

27

133

2

48

169

2

48

166

2

48

1,2

92

3,8

97

Wat

erfo

rd 4

5 1

13

56

110

4

5 1

49

84

190

4

2 1

55

62

137

4

0 1

61

119

1

61

74

161

6

89

2,5

83

Wes

tmea

th 3

5 3

5 3

4 1

4 1

3 2

2 4

5 5

3

8 2

5 3

4 2

3 3

1 3

4 7

9 3

4 4

9 3

4 4

68

591

Wex

ford

23

71

35

74

16

84

39

70

28

92

47

65

27

61

34

61

39

61

359

1

,210

Wic

klo

w 4

5 2

35

43

178

3

7 2

40

113

2

53

61

222

8

6 2

04

61

238

1

33

238

8

3 2

38

839

4

,029

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

18

540

1

8 5

40

18

499

1

8 4

99

18

499

1

8 4

99

18

499

1

8 5

20

18

520

3

29

9,3

93

Tota

ls 1

,569

3

,382

1

,457

3

,369

1

,263

3

,363

2

,153

3

,383

1

,596

3

,401

1

,978

3

,364

2

,061

3

,683

4

,113

3

,703

2

,473

3

,703

2

3,52

6 6

1,42

7

Tabl

e 9

bTa

ble

9: F

orec

ast o

f pot

entia

l tot

al n

et r

ealis

able

vol

ume

prod

uctio

n by

cou

nty

(000

m3

over

bark

) (C

ontin

ued)

.

Page 28: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

20 21

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Co

un

ty /

No

rth

ern

Ir

elan

dP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

S

Car

low

1

4

1

5

1

8

1

6

2

6

1

5

2

8

2

6

1

6

Cav

an 3

1

1 4

1

1 4

1

4 5

1

1 7

1

2 6

1

1 9

1

1 1

0 1

3 1

1 1

3

Cla

re 1

5 3

3 1

6 2

4 1

4 4

3 1

7 2

9 3

6 3

5 3

4 3

5 3

3 3

2 2

6 2

9 2

6 2

9

Co

rk 1

3 6

4 2

0 7

1 1

6 6

8 1

8 7

4 2

9 9

4 2

4 4

6 3

4 8

3 3

1 7

6 2

5 7

1

Do

neg

al 1

0 5

7 1

6 5

9 8

5

4 1

4 4

4 2

0 4

8 3

0 7

4 4

6 7

0 3

0 6

2 2

4 6

9

Du

blin

3

1

2

2

1

2

0

0

1

4

3

1

2

1

1

2

1

2

Gal

way

12

53

14

56

6

51

10

47

18

66

12

97

19

65

21

56

20

57

Ker

ry 2

6 3

0 3

6 2

5 1

7 3

1 2

1 2

5 3

9 3

0 3

6 3

1 4

4 3

2 3

3 3

3 3

0 2

8

Kild

are

4

5

1

4

2

4

3

4

3

2

1

3

3

2

2

2

2

3

Kilk

enn

y 6

1

1 5

1

7 3

1

4 7

1

1 1

0 9

1

2 1

6 1

4 1

2 8

1

3 1

0 1

4

Lao

is 7

2

5 3

2

4 4

1

9 6

2

1 1

4 2

4 1

0 2

1 1

0 1

6 9

3

1 8

2

0

Lei

trim

8

24

8

22

13

25

11

17

19

21

11

30

19

22

18

19

17

19

Lim

eric

k 5

2

3 7

2

0 6

1

7 9

2

2 1

2 2

2 1

1 1

8 1

6 1

9 1

4 1

7 1

6 1

7

Lo

ng

ford

3

5

3

6

3

6

2

3

3

2

5

3

4

4

4

5

5

4

Lo

uth

0

4

0

1

0

1

0

2

1

3

0

0

1

2

0

1

0

1

May

o 2

5 2

1 1

0 2

9 8

3

5 1

1 3

0 2

0 4

1 2

1 3

5 1

8 4

6 1

9 5

4 2

9 4

9

Mea

th 1

2

1

1

1

0

5

1

3

2

3

1

4

-

4

0

6

1

Mo

nag

han

2

4

1

4

1

5

0

6

1

5

3

2

2

5

2

3

3

6

Off

aly

8

14

3

13

7

6

6

11

8

8

9

8

8

10

8

7

7

5

Ro

sco

mm

on

14

13

10

14

7

12

10

13

15

15

12

16

13

10

14

14

15

13

Slig

o 1

0 1

6 9

2

0 5

1

6 1

0 2

3 1

0 1

8 1

0 3

1 1

4 1

8 1

1 2

0 1

5 2

4

Tip

per

ary

11

37

11

56

9

45

13

51

23

35

18

41

21

46

20

42

25

39

Wat

erfo

rd 6

2

4 5

2

2 4

1

7 7

2

7 1

2 2

8 7

1

7 1

1 2

2 6

2

6 7

3

0

Wes

tmea

th 5

6

2

6

5

8

6

4

8

3

7

4

9

2

8

3

1

2 4

Wex

ford

2

12

2

7

2

8

4

15

6

16

3

10

5

12

5

18

7

15

Wic

klo

w 6

3

4 1

0 3

1 4

2

8 7

4

7 1

1 4

7 8

2

7 1

4 3

1 1

0 4

1 7

4

4

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

2

75

2

94

2

94

2

94

2

94

2

94

2

77

2

77

2

77

Tota

ls 2

08

608

2

02

646

1

53

629

2

08

637

3

32

692

2

99

677

3

79

657

3

19

669

3

30

662

Tabl

e 10

: For

ecas

t of p

oten

tial n

et r

ealis

able

vol

ume

asso

rtm

ent 7

-13

cm b

y co

unty

(00

0 m

3 ov

erba

rk).

Not

es

1 P

rivat

e se

ctor

RO

I T

he v

olum

es in

clud

e br

oadl

eave

s.

2 0

valu

e A

“0”

val

ue in

dica

tes

that

ther

e is

a fo

reca

st v

olum

e bu

t tha

t it i

s le

ss th

an 1

,000

m3 .

3 “-

” va

lue

A “

-” v

alue

indi

cate

s th

at th

ere

is a

zer

o fo

reca

st v

olum

e.

Page 29: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

20 21

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Co

un

ty /

No

rth

ern

Ir

elan

dP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

S

Car

low

1

4

1

5

1

8

1

6

2

6

1

5

2

8

2

6

1

6

Cav

an 3

1

1 4

1

1 4

1

4 5

1

1 7

1

2 6

1

1 9

1

1 1

0 1

3 1

1 1

3

Cla

re 1

5 3

3 1

6 2

4 1

4 4

3 1

7 2

9 3

6 3

5 3

4 3

5 3

3 3

2 2

6 2

9 2

6 2

9

Co

rk 1

3 6

4 2

0 7

1 1

6 6

8 1

8 7

4 2

9 9

4 2

4 4

6 3

4 8

3 3

1 7

6 2

5 7

1

Do

neg

al 1

0 5

7 1

6 5

9 8

5

4 1

4 4

4 2

0 4

8 3

0 7

4 4

6 7

0 3

0 6

2 2

4 6

9

Du

blin

3

1

2

2

1

2

0

0

1

4

3

1

2

1

1

2

1

2

Gal

way

12

53

14

56

6

51

10

47

18

66

12

97

19

65

21

56

20

57

Ker

ry 2

6 3

0 3

6 2

5 1

7 3

1 2

1 2

5 3

9 3

0 3

6 3

1 4

4 3

2 3

3 3

3 3

0 2

8

Kild

are

4

5

1

4

2

4

3

4

3

2

1

3

3

2

2

2

2

3

Kilk

enn

y 6

1

1 5

1

7 3

1

4 7

1

1 1

0 9

1

2 1

6 1

4 1

2 8

1

3 1

0 1

4

Lao

is 7

2

5 3

2

4 4

1

9 6

2

1 1

4 2

4 1

0 2

1 1

0 1

6 9

3

1 8

2

0

Lei

trim

8

24

8

22

13

25

11

17

19

21

11

30

19

22

18

19

17

19

Lim

eric

k 5

2

3 7

2

0 6

1

7 9

2

2 1

2 2

2 1

1 1

8 1

6 1

9 1

4 1

7 1

6 1

7

Lo

ng

ford

3

5

3

6

3

6

2

3

3

2

5

3

4

4

4

5

5

4

Lo

uth

0

4

0

1

0

1

0

2

1

3

0

0

1

2

0

1

0

1

May

o 2

5 2

1 1

0 2

9 8

3

5 1

1 3

0 2

0 4

1 2

1 3

5 1

8 4

6 1

9 5

4 2

9 4

9

Mea

th 1

2

1

1

1

0

5

1

3

2

3

1

4

-

4

0

6

1

Mo

nag

han

2

4

1

4

1

5

0

6

1

5

3

2

2

5

2

3

3

6

Off

aly

8

14

3

13

7

6

6

11

8

8

9

8

8

10

8

7

7

5

Ro

sco

mm

on

14

13

10

14

7

12

10

13

15

15

12

16

13

10

14

14

15

13

Slig

o 1

0 1

6 9

2

0 5

1

6 1

0 2

3 1

0 1

8 1

0 3

1 1

4 1

8 1

1 2

0 1

5 2

4

Tip

per

ary

11

37

11

56

9

45

13

51

23

35

18

41

21

46

20

42

25

39

Wat

erfo

rd 6

2

4 5

2

2 4

1

7 7

2

7 1

2 2

8 7

1

7 1

1 2

2 6

2

6 7

3

0

Wes

tmea

th 5

6

2

6

5

8

6

4

8

3

7

4

9

2

8

3

1

2 4

Wex

ford

2

12

2

7

2

8

4

15

6

16

3

10

5

12

5

18

7

15

Wic

klo

w 6

3

4 1

0 3

1 4

2

8 7

4

7 1

1 4

7 8

2

7 1

4 3

1 1

0 4

1 7

4

4

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

2

75

2

94

2

94

2

94

2

94

2

94

2

77

2

77

2

77

Tota

ls 2

08

608

2

02

646

1

53

629

2

08

637

3

32

692

2

99

677

3

79

657

3

19

669

3

30

662

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Tota

l 201

1-20

28

Co

un

ty /

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Car

low

3

5

2

7

3

4

2

4

3

4

3

5

2

4

4

4

2

4

34

97

Cav

an 1

4 9

1

1 1

7 1

2 7

1

9 1

6 1

5 7

1

2 7

1

2 7

1

3 7

9

7

1

77

191

Cla

re 5

5 3

3 4

4 3

2 3

2 3

3 4

6 2

4 3

0 2

8 3

1 2

2 3

5 2

7 4

9 2

7 2

8 2

7 5

65

543

Co

rk 5

5 7

8 4

9 7

5 4

2 7

1 5

2 7

1 3

4 7

5 5

0 7

2 3

3 6

0 6

1 6

0 4

0 6

0 6

27

1,2

71

Do

neg

al 5

3 7

2 4

4 7

4 5

2 6

6 3

4 5

1 4

8 6

1 8

1 5

6 3

6 4

6 5

8 4

6 2

6 4

6 6

31

1,0

58

Du

blin

2

2

2

3

1

2

1

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

2

1

1

1

26

30

Gal

way

45

48

24

50

20

50

28

41

32

36

26

42

33

45

64

45

24

45

428

9

51

Ker

ry 7

4 3

0 4

9 3

5 4

7 2

9 5

5 2

7 3

6 2

3 3

3 2

5 3

8 1

7 7

2 1

7 4

4 1

7 7

31

485

Kild

are

8

2

2

3

2

1

5

6

3

3

4

2

4

8

7

8

4

8

59

70

Kilk

enn

y 1

6 1

5 1

1 1

2 1

4 1

2 1

8 1

7 1

2 1

4 1

4 1

0 1

3 1

1 1

7 1

1 1

4 1

1 2

03

230

Lao

is 1

8 1

7 1

2 1

3 8

2

5 1

5 2

3 1

2 1

0 1

0 1

5 1

2 1

3 1

9 1

3 1

0 1

3 1

86

340

Lei

trim

27

24

19

24

20

21

25

14

16

20

18

18

20

11

22

11

15

11

308

3

53

Lim

eric

k 2

6 1

6 2

5 1

8 2

2 1

6 2

5 1

9 2

5 1

5 2

4 1

0 1

7 1

4 2

2 1

4 1

6 1

4 2

97

311

Lo

ng

ford

10

7

6

3

7

6

7

4

7

8

8

4

6

4

11

4

7

4

102

8

5

Lo

uth

0

2

1

2

0

1

1

2

0

1

1

2

0

1

1

1

0

1

7

26

May

o 4

5 6

7 4

0 3

9 3

1 3

9 2

8 4

1 4

0 2

7 3

1 4

3 4

3 3

5 6

2 3

5 3

5 3

5 5

16

701

Mea

th 6

1

6

1

4

0

5

2

6

1

5

2

4

3

3

3

5

3

7

4 2

5

Mo

nag

han

2

3

3

12

2

4

3

4

2

3

2

6

2

4

4

4

1

4

36

82

Off

aly

14

10

13

8

13

5

11

5

12

7

12

7

14

12

23

12

10

12

187

1

57

Ro

sco

mm

on

26

16

17

11

19

9

23

7

23

16

21

9

25

9

37

9

21

9

321

2

17

Slig

o 2

3 2

5 1

6 2

6 1

7 2

1 1

6 1

5 1

7 2

8 1

8 1

6 2

5 1

4 2

2 1

4 1

2 1

4 2

60

360

Tip

per

ary

37

42

27

49

23

42

33

38

28

36

27

35

32

32

32

32

28

32

420

7

32

Wat

erfo

rd 1

5 2

8 1

5 2

4 1

2 3

0 1

4 3

5 8

2

7 1

1 2

3 1

0 2

0 1

9 2

0 1

1 2

0 1

80

442

Wes

tmea

th 1

3 5

1

0 3

6

5

1

0 3

1

1 5

1

1 5

9

7

1

3 7

1

1 7

1

58

87

Wex

ford

10

14

7

10

4

14

9

11

6

13

9

9

6

11

7

11

7

11

101

2

20

Wic

klo

w 1

8 4

3 1

0 3

2 1

0 3

3 1

8 3

3 1

2 3

6 1

4 3

1 9

2

6 1

9 2

6 1

2 2

6 2

01

618

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

2

77

2

77

2

65

2

65

2

65

2

65

2

65

2

71

2

71

30

1,4

01

Tota

ls 6

17

693

4

66

663

4

27

611

5

04

581

4

40

572

4

76

544

4

43

509

6

65

515

3

96

515

6

,861

1

1,08

1

Tabl

e 10

bTa

ble

10: F

orec

ast o

f pot

entia

l net

Rea

lisab

le v

olum

e as

sort

men

t 7-1

3 cm

by

coun

ty (

000

m3

over

bark

) (C

ontin

ued)

.

Page 30: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

22 23

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Co

un

ty /

No

rth

ern

Ir

elan

dP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

S

Car

low

0

6

1

8

1

10

1

8

2

9

1

7

2

10

2

8

1

9

Cav

an 2

1

4 4

1

6 2

1

8 5

1

5 6

1

5 4

1

0 8

1

0 7

1

0 7

1

3

Cla

re 7

6

1 9

5

3 9

6

6 1

4 5

4 3

0 5

6 1

9 6

3 2

7 6

5 1

6 5

2 2

7 4

5

Co

rk 4

1

19

8

110

9

1

16

10

129

1

9 1

27

13

79

28

109

1

9 9

0 2

2 9

7

Do

neg

al 3

9

5 5

8

1 4

6

9 6

6

8 9

6

8 1

3 9

6 2

2 9

5 1

3 8

9 1

6 1

01

Du

blin

1

2

1

2

0

6

0

1

1

5

2

2

2

1

1

2

0

2

Gal

way

4

88

6

94

4

85

8

86

10

88

9

156

1

7 9

7 1

3 9

3 1

7 1

00

Ker

ry 9

5

2 1

3 4

5 8

6

4 1

1 4

5 2

3 5

9 2

4 5

5 3

7 5

7 1

9 5

5 2

3 6

4

Kild

are

3

6

1

7

1

9

1

6

1

3

1

4

2

5

1

3

3

5

Kilk

enn

y 2

2

1 1

2

4 1

2

7 4

1

7 8

1

3 7

2

1 9

1

5 4

1

8 7

1

6

Lao

is 3

3

1 1

3

7 2

3

4 3

3

1 7

3

6 7

2

8 7

2

6 5

3

8 5

3

6

Lei

trim

9

33

7

40

10

42

11

31

18

32

10

35

16

27

15

28

22

26

Lim

eric

k 2

3

6 2

2

5 4

2

6 7

3

4 7

3

3 6

1

8 1

0 3

1 7

2

6 1

1 2

8

Lo

ng

ford

1

8

2

8

2

10

2

7

3

5

3

7

3

6

2

5

3

6

Lo

uth

0

3

0

3

0

2

1

4

1

4

0

1

1

1

0

1

0

2

May

o 7

3

6 4

4

6 4

4

8 5

5

4 1

4 5

7 1

8 5

0 1

4 6

1 1

0 7

5 1

6 7

4

Mea

th 0

5

0

1

0

1

2

1

1

4

1

2

2

-

1

0

4

1

Mo

nag

han

1

5

1

5

1

6

0

7

1

6

2

5

2

6

2

4

1

6

Off

aly

3

21

2

24

3

10

4

18

5

14

7

10

5

14

6

13

5

9

Ro

sco

mm

on

7

15

7

17

6

18

8

21

13

15

12

17

12

14

11

16

16

20

Slig

o 4

2

7 6

3

1 5

3

1 7

3

6 8

2

9 9

5

1 1

1 2

8 7

3

3 1

4 3

8

Tip

per

ary

4

53

3

73

3

66

8

71

15

44

10

55

15

54

9

54

14

53

Wat

erfo

rd 2

3

8 2

3

4 1

2

6 5

3

5 8

3

9 5

2

6 9

2

8 4

3

1 7

3

2

Wes

tmea

th 1

1

2 1

1

1 2

1

8 6

1

0 6

9

4

7

6

5

4

6

6

4

Wex

ford

1

10

1

12

1

9

3

18

4

18

2

13

5

13

3

21

5

22

Wic

klo

w 3

5

4 5

4

2 3

3

8 4

6

3 9

5

7 7

4

2 1

3 4

8 8

5

8 7

5

7

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

7

132

7

1

69

7

169

7

1

69

7

169

7

1

69

7

157

7

1

57

7

157

Tota

ls 9

0 9

86

97

1,0

17

91

1,0

24

142

1

,040

2

36

1,0

13

203

1

,028

2

91

982

1

98

985

2

67

1,0

21

Tabl

e 11

: For

ecas

t of p

oten

tial n

et r

ealis

able

vol

ume

asso

rtm

ent 1

4-19

cm

by

coun

ty (

000

m3

over

bark

).

Not

es

1 P

rivat

e se

ctor

RO

I T

he v

olum

es in

clud

e br

oadl

eave

s.

2 0

valu

e A

“0”

val

ue in

dica

tes

that

ther

e is

a fo

reca

st v

olum

e bu

t tha

t it i

s le

ss th

an 1

,000

m3 .

3 “-

” va

lue

A “

-” v

alue

indi

cate

s th

at th

ere

is a

zer

o fo

reca

st v

olum

e.

Page 31: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

22 23

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Tota

l 201

1-20

28

Co

un

ty /

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Car

low

3

7

4

10

6

5

4

8

6

8

6

9

4

7

10

7

5

7

57

145

Cav

an 1

4 1

2 1

2 1

7 1

4 8

2

6 2

1 2

0 1

0 1

9 1

1 1

6 1

2 2

4 1

2 1

8 1

2 2

08

236

Cla

re 6

3 6

5 4

8 5

1 3

7 6

2 7

1 4

5 3

9 6

1 4

8 4

9 6

0 5

7 1

06

57

59

57

690

1

,020

Co

rk 5

4 9

4 6

0 9

6 4

2 9

7 9

0 1

12

45

108

6

8 1

09

52

96

135

9

6 8

4 9

6 7

63

1,8

80

Do

neg

al 4

3 9

7 4

6 1

13

52

105

4

0 8

4 5

1 9

1 9

2 8

9 4

6 8

8 1

00

88

42

88

602

1

,604

Du

blin

2

3

3

5

1

3

2

4

1

1

1

2

2

3

4

3

4

3

28

49

Gal

way

51

66

30

74

24

69

44

59

56

58

49

66

59

58

155

5

8 6

0 5

8 6

16

1,4

55

Ker

ry 7

4 5

5 4

8 6

4 4

7 4

6 7

7 5

6 4

3 4

7 5

6 5

2 7

1 3

7 1

72

37

97

37

852

9

27

Kild

are

5

3

4

2

1

2

6

7

3

2

6

3

8

4

17

4

6

4

70

79

Kilk

enn

y 1

3 2

1 1

5 1

6 1

7 1

4 3

4 2

1 2

2 2

3 2

3 1

5 2

7 1

9 4

2 1

9 3

5 1

9 2

72

339

Lao

is 1

8 2

8 1

4 2

2 1

0 4

2 2

6 4

7 2

1 2

0 1

8 2

6 2

2 2

6 4

8 2

6 2

0 2

6 2

35

561

Lei

trim

33

36

23

39

32

34

46

24

20

29

29

34

38

25

49

25

34

25

422

5

64

Lim

eric

k 1

9 2

4 2

1 2

6 1

9 2

5 2

6 2

5 2

8 2

9 3

2 1

6 2

5 2

3 4

2 2

3 3

3 2

3 3

01

471

Lo

ng

ford

10

6

5

2

4

5

7

5

9

7

8

6

9

5

24

5

13

5

111

1

05

Lo

uth

1

2

1

1

0

1

1

1

1

2

1

2

0

1

2

1

0

1

10

36

May

o 4

4 1

01

44

70

30

70

44

76

46

55

43

78

61

69

131

6

9 6

4 6

9 5

99

1,1

56

Mea

th 4

1

7

2

3

0

7

1

7

1

6

1

4

1

5

1

6

1

6

1 2

6

Mo

nag

han

2

4

5

11

3

4

4

6

3

5

3

8

4

7

7

7

2

7

44

110

Off

aly

13

17

14

11

12

10

15

7

15

12

18

10

17

12

55

12

21

12

220

2

35

Ro

sco

mm

on

29

19

20

14

23

12

37

15

27

18

33

14

43

15

93

15

46

15

440

2

92

Slig

o 2

5 3

6 1

9 3

8 2

2 3

0 2

5 2

2 2

3 4

4 2

7 2

5 3

7 2

7 5

3 2

7 2

7 2

7 3

30

578

Tip

per

ary

30

56

28

63

25

61

50

51

36

57

38

58

49

56

64

56

60

56

461

1

,037

Wat

erfo

rd 1

8 3

2 2

0 2

8 1

7 3

6 3

2 4

7 1

5 3

8 2

3 3

5 1

6 3

6 4

5 3

6 2

8 3

6 2

57

613

Wes

tmea

th 1

3 8

1

2 3

5

6

1

6 1

1

3 5

1

3 6

1

1 7

2

8 7

1

8 7

1

65

131

Wex

ford

9

18

13

13

6

19

15

16

10

21

19

14

10

15

14

15

16

15

136

2

82

Wic

klo

w 1

7 5

4 1

7 4

2 1

4 5

2 3

9 5

7 2

7 4

8 2

8 4

8 2

3 4

7 5

0 4

7 3

0 4

7 3

02

902

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

7

157

7

1

57

7

132

7

1

32

7

132

7

1

32

7

132

7

1

44

7

144

1

19

2,7

12

Tota

ls 6

14

1,0

21

538

9

89

471

9

48

791

9

50

594

9

32

711

9

21

721

8

88

1,4

81

900

8

35

900

8

,370

1

7,54

5

Tabl

e 11

b

Tabl

e 11

: For

ecas

t of p

oten

tial n

et r

ealis

able

vol

ume

asso

rtm

ent 1

4-19

cm

by

coun

ty (

000

m3

over

bark

) (C

ontin

ued)

.

Page 32: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

24 25

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Co

un

ty /

No

rth

ern

Ir

elan

dP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

S

Car

low

0

16

0

7

1

15

0

17

1

23

0

14

1

24

1

20

1

34

Cav

an 2

2

8 1

3

2 0

2

6 3

3

6 3

2

1 2

9

4

1

4 6

1

0 1

1 2

4

Cla

re 2

8

1 2

8

1 5

7

5 4

6

5 1

1 6

3 1

4 8

3 1

2 9

6 1

3 8

1 2

4 5

5

Co

rk 4

2

23

3

187

8

2

18

2

225

5

2

38

2

150

8

2

00

15

170

1

6 1

45

Do

neg

al 0

1

10

0

90

2

68

1

57

1

75

2

93

4

97

5

119

6

1

19

Du

blin

0

3

0

3

1

11

0

3

0

6

0

5

0

1

1

9

0

2

Gal

way

0

147

9

1

15

3

108

2

1

13

2

101

1

1

56

5

138

9

1

14

9

120

Ker

ry 7

8

2 1

1 6

4 8

7

3 2

5

6 1

0 8

9 6

7

6 1

0 1

06

15

86

12

110

Kild

are

4

8

5

13

1

25

0

25

0

3

0

7

1

11

2

6

3

11

Kilk

enn

y 0

5

4 0

3

6 1

5

2 1

4

0 2

2

5 1

3

5 2

3

1 1

3

7 3

4

2

Lao

is 1

4

8 0

4

8 2

5

1 1

5

2 1

7

2 3

6

1 2

4

6 4

5

7 2

9

4

Lei

trim

10

55

6

60

5

71

4

49

6

53

8

26

6

30

8

43

24

28

Lim

eric

k 0

4

7 0

5

2 2

4

9 1

5

9 1

5

3 1

1

8 2

3

7 3

3

9 5

3

4

Lo

ng

ford

0

28

0

25

1

19

1

24

1

21

1

14

2

11

1

5

3

6

Lo

uth

0

7

0

10

0

6

0

15

0

8

0

4

0

1

1

3

0

7

May

o 1

3

4 1

5

1 2

4

5 1

6

2 3

4

3 4

4

0 4

5

3 4

4

9 5

5

9

Mea

th 0

1

4 1

4

1

2

0

4

1

1

7 0

7

1

-

1

2

2

0

Mo

nag

han

0

15

0

9

0

12

0

10

0

18

1

14

1

4

1

2

1

12

Off

aly

2

38

3

36

1

23

1

45

2

34

3

16

2

28

3

30

3

19

Ro

sco

mm

on

1

24

1

23

2

29

2

23

5

18

5

19

5

23

6

22

14

26

Slig

o 1

5

3 2

3

4 3

5

7 4

5

1 3

4

3 4

8

4 5

5

1 4

4

7 9

5

2

Tip

per

ary

4

130

0

1

06

3

124

3

1

52

5

77

5

106

4

8

9 3

9

5 7

1

00

Wat

erfo

rd 0

1

32

0

83

1

66

1

129

2

1

08

1

64

2

52

3

57

3

54

Wes

tmea

th 0

4

1 0

3

2 1

6

1 2

1

3 2

3

4 2

1

5 1

1

4 2

2

2 5

1

3

Wex

ford

0

24

0

31

1

17

1

37

1

45

1

34

2

23

1

46

3

65

Wic

klo

w 1

0 1

48

3

104

4

1

07

1

131

4

1

15

3

143

5

1

39

8

175

3

1

30

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

10

220

1

0 2

83

10

283

1

0 2

83

10

283

1

0 2

83

10

306

1

0 3

06

10

306

Tota

ls 6

1 1

,812

6

0 1

,620

6

8 1

,692

5

1 1

,775

8

1 1

,685

8

2 1

,576

1

01

1,6

22

132

1

,652

1

85

1,6

68

Not

es

1 P

rivat

e se

ctor

RO

I T

he v

olum

es in

clud

e br

oadl

eave

s.

2 0

valu

e A

“0”

val

ue in

dica

tes

that

ther

e is

a fo

reca

st v

olum

e bu

t tha

t it i

s le

ss th

an 1

,000

m3 .

3 “-

” va

lue

A “

-” v

alue

indi

cate

s th

at th

ere

is a

zer

o fo

reca

st v

olum

e.

Tabl

e 12

: For

ecas

t of p

oten

tial t

otal

net

rea

lisab

le v

olum

e as

sort

men

t 20

cm +

by

coun

ty (

000

m3

over

bark

).

Page 33: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

24 25

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Co

un

ty /

No

rth

ern

Ir

elan

dP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

S

Car

low

0

16

0

7

1

15

0

17

1

23

0

14

1

24

1

20

1

34

Cav

an 2

2

8 1

3

2 0

2

6 3

3

6 3

2

1 2

9

4

1

4 6

1

0 1

1 2

4

Cla

re 2

8

1 2

8

1 5

7

5 4

6

5 1

1 6

3 1

4 8

3 1

2 9

6 1

3 8

1 2

4 5

5

Co

rk 4

2

23

3

187

8

2

18

2

225

5

2

38

2

150

8

2

00

15

170

1

6 1

45

Do

neg

al 0

1

10

0

90

2

68

1

57

1

75

2

93

4

97

5

119

6

1

19

Du

blin

0

3

0

3

1

11

0

3

0

6

0

5

0

1

1

9

0

2

Gal

way

0

147

9

1

15

3

108

2

1

13

2

101

1

1

56

5

138

9

1

14

9

120

Ker

ry 7

8

2 1

1 6

4 8

7

3 2

5

6 1

0 8

9 6

7

6 1

0 1

06

15

86

12

110

Kild

are

4

8

5

13

1

25

0

25

0

3

0

7

1

11

2

6

3

11

Kilk

enn

y 0

5

4 0

3

6 1

5

2 1

4

0 2

2

5 1

3

5 2

3

1 1

3

7 3

4

2

Lao

is 1

4

8 0

4

8 2

5

1 1

5

2 1

7

2 3

6

1 2

4

6 4

5

7 2

9

4

Lei

trim

10

55

6

60

5

71

4

49

6

53

8

26

6

30

8

43

24

28

Lim

eric

k 0

4

7 0

5

2 2

4

9 1

5

9 1

5

3 1

1

8 2

3

7 3

3

9 5

3

4

Lo

ng

ford

0

28

0

25

1

19

1

24

1

21

1

14

2

11

1

5

3

6

Lo

uth

0

7

0

10

0

6

0

15

0

8

0

4

0

1

1

3

0

7

May

o 1

3

4 1

5

1 2

4

5 1

6

2 3

4

3 4

4

0 4

5

3 4

4

9 5

5

9

Mea

th 0

1

4 1

4

1

2

0

4

1

1

7 0

7

1

-

1

2

2

0

Mo

nag

han

0

15

0

9

0

12

0

10

0

18

1

14

1

4

1

2

1

12

Off

aly

2

38

3

36

1

23

1

45

2

34

3

16

2

28

3

30

3

19

Ro

sco

mm

on

1

24

1

23

2

29

2

23

5

18

5

19

5

23

6

22

14

26

Slig

o 1

5

3 2

3

4 3

5

7 4

5

1 3

4

3 4

8

4 5

5

1 4

4

7 9

5

2

Tip

per

ary

4

130

0

1

06

3

124

3

1

52

5

77

5

106

4

8

9 3

9

5 7

1

00

Wat

erfo

rd 0

1

32

0

83

1

66

1

129

2

1

08

1

64

2

52

3

57

3

54

Wes

tmea

th 0

4

1 0

3

2 1

6

1 2

1

3 2

3

4 2

1

5 1

1

4 2

2

2 5

1

3

Wex

ford

0

24

0

31

1

17

1

37

1

45

1

34

2

23

1

46

3

65

Wic

klo

w 1

0 1

48

3

104

4

1

07

1

131

4

1

15

3

143

5

1

39

8

175

3

1

30

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

10

220

1

0 2

83

10

283

1

0 2

83

10

283

1

0 2

83

10

306

1

0 3

06

10

306

Tota

ls 6

1 1

,812

6

0 1

,620

6

8 1

,692

5

1 1

,775

8

1 1

,685

8

2 1

,576

1

01

1,6

22

132

1

,652

1

85

1,6

68

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Tota

l 201

1-20

28

Co

un

ty /

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Car

low

2

12

4

15

7

9

5

30

8

36

9

26

6

31

14

31

6

31

68

391

Cav

an 1

1 3

0 2

0 2

7 1

3 1

9 2

8 4

0 2

9 3

1 4

6 2

4 1

9 4

1 5

0 4

1 2

7 4

1 2

76

493

Cla

re 4

3 1

02

39

87

33

103

8

0 6

4 4

3 1

11

65

106

1

02

144

1

71

144

8

3 1

44

746

1

,687

Co

rk 3

0 1

54

48

159

3

6 2

00

102

2

23

45

234

7

9 2

29

54

255

1

66

255

1

30

255

7

53

3,7

19

Do

neg

al 1

1 1

03

21

146

1

6 1

56

25

130

2

0 1

25

32

129

3

0 2

02

81

202

4

3 2

02

302

2

,224

Du

blin

1

8

2

30

1

4

2

15

1

2

2

8

2

8

5

8

6

8

23

133

Gal

way

27

79

20

83

17

90

41

84

63

88

58

92

62

116

2

01

116

8

2 1

16

612

1

,977

Ker

ry 2

8 8

2 3

0 8

8 3

4 5

8 7

7 8

2 3

6 6

7 5

7 8

7 8

4 8

2 1

99

82

140

8

2 7

66

1,4

51

Kild

are

2

4

5

3

1

12

7

30

2

2

4

3

11

7

23

7

14

7

86

185

Kilk

enn

y 6

4

6 1

1 3

3 1

2 2

8 4

0 4

0 2

5 7

6 2

6 5

3 3

4 6

3 5

3 6

3 4

6 6

3 2

63

818

Lao

is 8

7

1 1

1 4

5 8

1

12

30

131

2

1 6

7 1

8 1

08

28

109

6

6 1

09

27

109

2

34

1,3

89

Lei

trim

32

63

38

76

34

70

60

55

21

60

51

74

112

8

4 9

7 8

4 1

00

84

625

1

,065

Lim

eric

k 6

2

9 1

4 4

9 1

1 4

7 2

3 4

5 2

8 7

2 2

5 5

0 2

7 6

4 4

4 6

4 3

7 6

4 2

31

875

Lo

ng

ford

7

13

3

6

2

6

7

5

11

11

7

9

11

13

30

13

19

13

107

2

42

Lo

uth

1

7

1

2

0

4

1

1

1

4

1

4

0

4

3

4

1

4

12

93

May

o 1

9 7

9 2

5 5

9 1

3 5

1 4

5 6

9 2

3 5

5 3

8 7

7 4

9 9

7 1

62

97

75

97

471

1

,117

Mea

th 2

7

6

4

2

0

6

0

7

2

3

5

2

1

5

1

6

1

4

6 7

1

Mo

nag

han

2

9

5

17

3

4

4

11

3

18

4

8

8

17

13

17

3

17

51

215

Off

aly

6

43

12

31

10

27

18

32

12

22

22

20

13

34

71

34

32

34

213

5

47

Ro

sco

mm

on

23

26

18

31

22

26

41

29

32

26

64

39

77

49

158

4

9 1

05

49

581

5

29

Slig

o 1

5 4

9 2

5 7

4 2

4 6

7 2

7 3

1 2

4 6

9 3

2 5

6 4

0 7

8 9

9 7

8 6

2 7

8 3

81

1,0

53

Tip

per

ary

14

95

23

124

2

0 1

09

50

90

33

119

3

6 1

34

51

160

7

3 1

60

78

160

4

12

2,1

29

Wat

erfo

rd 1

1 5

3 2

1 5

8 1

6 8

2 3

9 1

08

18

90

27

79

15

105

5

6 1

05

35

105

2

52

1,5

28

Wes

tmea

th 8

2

2 1

1 8

2

1

2 1

8 1

1

3 1

5 1

0 1

2 1

0 2

0 3

7 2

0 2

0 2

0 1

45

374

Wex

ford

4

39

14

50

6

51

15

42

12

58

20

41

12

35

14

35

16

35

122

7

09

Wic

klo

w 1

0 1

37

15

104

1

3 1

55

56

163

2

2 1

38

45

125

2

9 1

65

65

165

4

0 1

65

337

2

,509

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

10

306

1

0 3

06

10

302

1

0 3

02

10

302

1

0 3

02

10

302

1

0 3

04

10

304

1

81

5,2

79

Tota

ls 3

38

1,6

67

453

1

,717

3

66

1,8

04

858

1

,852

5

62

1,8

97

791

1

,900

8

97

2,2

86

1,9

67

2,2

88

1,2

42

2,2

88

8,2

95

32,

801

Tabl

e 12

bTa

ble

12: F

orec

ast o

f pot

entia

l tot

al n

et r

ealis

able

vol

ume

asso

rtm

ent 2

0 cm

+ b

y co

unty

(00

0 m

3 ov

erba

rk)

(Con

tinue

d).

Page 34: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

26 27

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Co

un

ty /

No

rth

ern

Ir

elan

dP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

S

Car

low

0

1

0

0

0

1

0

1

0

1

0

1

0

1

0

1

0

1

Cav

an 1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

2

1

2

1

2

1

Cla

re 3

4

3

3

3

4

3

3

6

3

6

4

6

4

5

3

5

3

Co

rk 2

8

3

7

3

8

3

9

5

9

4

5

6

8

6

7

5

6

Do

neg

al 2

5

3

5

2

4

2

3

4

4

5

5

8

5

5

5

4

6

Du

blin

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Gal

way

2

6

2

5

1

5

2

5

3

5

2

8

3

6

3

5

3

6

Ker

ry 4

3

6

3

3

3

4

3

7

4

6

3

8

4

6

3

5

4

Kild

are

1

0

0

0

0

1

0

1

1

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

Kilk

enn

y 1

2

1

2

1

2

1

1

2

1

2

1

2

1

1

1

2

1

Lao

is 1

2

1

2

1

2

1

2

2

3

2

2

2

2

2

3

1

3

Lei

trim

1

2

1

2

2

3

2

2

3

2

2

2

3

2

3

2

3

1

Lim

eric

k 1

2

1

2

1

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

3

2

3

2

3

2

Lo

ng

ford

1

1

1

1

0

1

0

1

1

1

1

0

1

0

1

0

1

0

Lo

uth

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

May

o 4

2

2

3

1

3

2

3

4

3

4

2

3

3

3

4

5

4

Mea

th 0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

1

0

1

0

1

-

1

0

1

0

Mo

nag

han

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Off

aly

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Ro

sco

mm

on

2

1

2

1

1

1

2

1

3

1

2

1

2

1

2

1

3

1

Slig

o 2

2

2

2

1

2

2

2

2

2

2

3

2

2

2

2

3

2

Tip

per

ary

2

4

2

5

2

5

3

5

4

3

3

4

4

4

4

4

5

4

Wat

erfo

rd 1

4

1

3

1

2

1

4

2

3

1

2

2

2

1

2

1

2

Wes

tmea

th 1

1

0

1

1

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

2

0

2

1

2

0

Wex

ford

0

1

0

1

0

1

1

1

1

2

1

1

1

1

1

2

1

2

Wic

klo

w 1

5

2

4

1

3

1

5

2

4

1

4

2

4

2

5

1

5

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

0

9

0

11

0

11

0

11

0

11

0

11

0

10

0

10

0

10

Tota

ls 3

6 6

8 3

5 6

6 2

8 6

7 3

7 6

9 5

9 6

8 5

2 6

6 6

4 6

4 5

7 6

5 5

9 6

6

Tabl

e 13

: For

ecas

t of p

oten

tial n

et r

ealis

able

vol

ume

asso

rtm

ent t

ip-7

cm

by

coun

ty (

000

m3

over

bark

).

Not

es

1 P

rivat

e se

ctor

RO

I T

he v

olum

es in

clud

e br

oadl

eave

s.

2 N

orth

ern

Irel

and

The

vol

umes

are

bas

ed o

n 2%

of t

otal

vol

ume

prod

uctio

n to

7 c

m to

p di

amet

er.

3 0

valu

e A

“0”

val

ue in

dica

tes

that

ther

e is

a fo

reca

st v

olum

e bu

t tha

t it i

s le

ss th

an 1

,000

m3 .

4 “-

” va

lue

A “

-” v

alue

indi

cate

s th

at th

ere

is a

zer

o fo

reca

st v

olum

e.

Page 35: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

26 27

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Tota

l 201

1-20

28

Co

un

ty /

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Car

low

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

1

1

1

1

1

0

1

1

1

0

1

6

12

Cav

an 2

1

2

1

2

1

4

2

3

1

2

1

2

1

2

1

2

1

3

2 1

8

Cla

re 9

4

8

3

6

4

9

3

5

4

5

4

6

3

9

3

5

3

1

01

60

Co

rk 9

7

9

7

8

7

1

0 8

6

8

9

8

6

7

1

2 7

8

7

1

12

133

Do

neg

al 8

5

7

7

8

7

6

5

7

6

1

2 5

6

5

9

5

4

5

1

01

93

Du

blin

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

5

4

Gal

way

7

4

4

4

3

4

5

4

6

4

5

4

6

5

12

5

5

5

74

89

Ker

ry 1

1 3

9

4

8

3

1

0 3

6

3

6

3

7

2

1

4 2

8

2

1

27

54

Kild

are

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

0

1

0

1

1

1

1

1

1

11

9

Kilk

enn

y 3

2

2

1

3

1

4

2

2

2

3

2

2

1

3

1

3

1

3

7 2

6

Lao

is 3

2

2

2

1

4

3

4

2

2

2

3

2

2

4

2

2

2

3

4 4

2

Lei

trim

5

2

3

3

4

3

5

2

3

2

3

3

4

1

4

1

3

1

55

36

Lim

eric

k 4

1

5

2

4

2

4

2

4

2

4

2

3

2

4

2

3

2

5

2 3

2

Lo

ng

ford

2

1

1

0

1

0

1

0

1

1

1

0

1

1

2

1

1

1

18

9

Lo

uth

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

3

May

o 7

5

6

3

5

3

5

4

6

3

5

4

6

4

1

1 4

6

4

8

5 6

0

Mea

th 1

0

1

0

1

0

1

0

1

0

1

0

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

4 4

Mo

nag

han

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

7

8

Off

aly

2

1

2

1

2

1

2

1

2

1

2

1

2

2

4

2

2

2

33

21

Ro

sco

mm

on

4

1

3

1

3

1

4

1

4

1

4

1

4

1

7

1

4

1

56

21

Slig

o 4

2

3

3

3

2

3

1

3

3

3

2

4

2

4

2

2

2

4

4 3

7

Tip

per

ary

6

4

5

5

4

4

6

4

5

4

5

5

6

4

6

4

5

4

76

76

Wat

erfo

rd 2

2

3

2

2

3

3

4

2

3

2

3

2

2

4

2

2

2

3

2 4

9

Wes

tmea

th 2

1

2

0

1

0

2

0

2

0

2

0

2

1

2

1

2

1

2

9 1

3

Wex

ford

2

1

1

1

1

2

2

1

1

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

19

25

Wic

klo

w 3

5

2

4

2

5

4

5

2

4

3

4

2

3

4

3

2

3

3

7 7

7

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

0

10

0

10

0

8

0

8

0

8

0

8

0

8

0

9

0

9

7

172

Tota

ls 9

8 6

7 8

2 6

6 7

4 6

6 9

4 6

6 7

6 6

7 8

0 6

6 7

6 6

2 1

23

63

74

63

1,2

06

1,1

83

Tabl

e 13

bTa

ble

13: F

orec

ast o

f pot

entia

l net

rea

lisab

le v

olum

e as

sort

men

t tip

-7 c

m b

y co

unty

(00

0 m

3 ov

erba

rk)

(Con

tinue

d).

Page 36: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

28 2928

Table14:ForecastofPotentialSpruceNetRealisableVolumebyCounty(000

m3overbark).

Notes

1NorthernIreland

Nospeciesbreakdownisavailableforthe

privatesectorvolumes.The

majorityofproductionislikelytobe

spruce.

20value

A“0”value

indicatesthatthereisaforecastvolumebutthatitislessthan

1,000m

3

3“-“value

A“-“value

indicatesthatthereisazeroforecastvolume.

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Cou

nty/

NorthernIre

land

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Carlow

228

115

218

224

225

429

129

229

329

329

Cavan

1239

526

862

542

1346

1347

940

1440

1940

2540

Clare

60118

22169

21176

23132

32147

68161

62171

46171

46171

70171

Cork

31284

20334

23285

16285

26281

43317

34286

36286

43286

54286

Don

egal

36161

12161

17181

9174

17184

24194

40220

56220

41220

33220

Dub

lin20

224

72

81

170

92

176

83

81

81

8Galway

10137

12199

25161

9168

16185

25202

19186

25186

29186

32186

Kerry

33129

42103

52119

22141

31137

61158

63161

62161

53161

59161

Kild

are

221

511

623

219

320

410

215

215

215

615

Kilken

ny11

417

794

674

7511

5417

3217

5814

5811

5817

58La

ois

8149

1086

381

6108

692

19105

17112

9112

15112

10112

Leitrim

32106

27103

19106

27102

24103

38121

2784

2784

3884

6084

Limerick

898

775

894

9105

15103

17113

1573

1773

1973

2773

Long

ford

331

431

236

533

434

521

916

516

616

916

Louth

114

07

-12

05

115

16

07

17

17

17

Mayo

1862

3034

951

861

1358

2843

3782

1982

2382

3882

Meath

210

01

118

011

120

224

24

34

44

44

Mon

agha

n2

112

382

91

101

252

206

224

224

225

22Offa

ly11

5611

636

548

499

7211

3717

468

4614

4611

46Ros

common

2250

2250

1547

1340

1845

2936

2752

2152

3052

4252

Sligo

1179

1596

1468

11103

1990

1873

2199

2199

1999

3099

Tipp

erary

37126

14140

11155

10171

18165

33102

25171

21171

24171

36171

Waterford

12121

7112

4109

388

11116

17106

1187

1087

887

1587

Westm

eath

734

457

144

459

1227

1139

921

721

821

2021

Wexford

559

322

135

125

761

847

448

448

748

1248

Wicklow

36224

18153

9166

4161

10159

20145

15184

14184

18184

13184

NorthernIre

land

NA

380

NA

380

NA

497

NA

497

NA

497

NA

497

NA

497

NA

491

NA

491

NA

491

Totals

429

2,588

306

2,553

265

2,684

205

2,704

321

2,767

520

2,700

493

2,781

451

2,775

486

2,775

634

2,775

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Co

un

ty /

No

rth

ern

Ir

elan

dP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

S

Car

low

1

25

2

18

2

28

2

22

4

29

1

22

2

39

3

22

3

43

Cav

an 5

5

0 8

5

4 5

5

7 1

3 5

5 1

3 4

4 9

2

6 1

4 3

4 1

9 2

9 2

5 4

7

Cla

re 2

2 1

60

21

138

2

3 1

55

32

132

6

8 1

34

62

156

4

6 1

74

46

145

7

0 1

10

Co

rk 2

0 3

52

23

316

1

6 3

45

26

378

4

3 4

07

34

234

3

6 3

55

43

310

5

4 2

74

Do

neg

al 1

2 2

09

17

192

9

1

75

17

141

2

4 1

71

40

219

5

6 2

30

41

236

3

3 2

54

Du

blin

4

7

2

5

1

18

0

5

2

14

6

4

3

2

1

11

1

5

Gal

way

12

240

2

5 1

74

9

156

1

6 1

60

25

201

1

9 2

58

25

225

2

9 1

94

32

202

Ker

ry 4

2 1

48

52

117

2

2 1

47

31

103

6

1 1

64

63

145

6

2 1

82

53

155

5

9 1

96

Kild

are

5

16

6

22

2

34

3

31

4

7

2

12

2

16

2

8

6

16

Kilk

enn

y 7

7

5 4

7

0 4

8

0 1

1 5

3 1

7 4

0 1

7 6

2 1

4 3

7 1

1 6

3 1

7 6

2

Lao

is 1

0 8

9 3

9

3 6

9

6 6

9

5 1

9 1

22

17

94

9

71

15

109

1

0 1

33

Lei

trim

27

102

1

9 1

16

27

129

2

4 9

0 3

8 1

00

27

88

27

72

38

79

60

66

Lim

eric

k 7

9

7 8

9

2 9

8

7 1

5 1

05

17

101

1

5 4

8 1

7 8

5 1

9 7

8 2

7 7

6

Lo

ng

ford

4

36

2

38

5

30

4

30

5

21

9

22

5

19

6

13

9

10

Lo

uth

0

10

-

11

0

2

1

18

1

12

0

1

1

1

1

3

1

9

May

o 3

0 4

3 9

6

1 8

5

0 1

3 7

0 2

8 4

6 3

7 6

3 1

9 7

2 2

3 8

2 3

8 8

2

Mea

th 0

1

8 1

5

0

3

1

5

2

2

1 2

6

3

-

4

2

4

2

Mo

nag

han

2

22

2

17

1

21

1

21

2

25

6

19

4

14

4

8

5

24

Off

aly

11

67

6

62

8

33

9

69

11

51

17

30

8

46

14

37

11

29

Ro

sco

mm

on

22

43

15

53

13

44

18

52

29

45

27

46

21

42

30

43

42

53

Slig

o 1

5 8

7 1

4 6

7 1

1 9

5 1

9 9

1 1

8 6

7 2

1 1

51

21

83

19

90

30

92

Tip

per

ary

14

169

1

1 1

86

10

195

1

8 2

25

33

124

2

5 1

75

21

154

2

4 1

63

36

166

Wat

erfo

rd 7

1

59

4

108

3

9

0 1

1 1

66

17

139

1

1 8

3 1

0 8

7 8

9

2 1

5 8

4

Wes

tmea

th 4

5

2 1

4

1 4

7

5 1

2 1

8 1

1 4

3 9

2

2 7

1

9 8

2

5 2

0 2

0

Wex

ford

3

37

1

41

1

19

7

56

8

58

4

41

4

33

7

62

12

75

Wic

klo

w 1

8 2

11

9

149

4

1

56

10

209

2

0 1

88

15

154

1

4 1

84

18

231

1

3 2

07

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

NA

3

80

NA

4

97

NA

4

97

NA

4

97

NA

4

97

NA

4

97

NA

4

91

NA

4

91

NA

4

91

Tota

ls 3

06

2,9

03

265

2

,744

2

05

2,8

17

321

2

,900

5

20

2,8

71

493

2

,676

4

51

2,7

67

486

2

,783

6

34

2,8

28

Tabl

e 14

Tabl

e 14

: For

ecas

t of p

oten

tial s

pruc

e ne

t rea

lisab

le v

olum

e by

cou

nty

(000

m3

over

bark

).

Page 37: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

28 29

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Co

un

ty /

No

rth

ern

Ir

elan

dP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

S

Car

low

1

25

2

18

2

28

2

22

4

29

1

22

2

39

3

22

3

43

Cav

an 5

5

0 8

5

4 5

5

7 1

3 5

5 1

3 4

4 9

2

6 1

4 3

4 1

9 2

9 2

5 4

7

Cla

re 2

2 1

60

21

138

2

3 1

55

32

132

6

8 1

34

62

156

4

6 1

74

46

145

7

0 1

10

Co

rk 2

0 3

52

23

316

1

6 3

45

26

378

4

3 4

07

34

234

3

6 3

55

43

310

5

4 2

74

Do

neg

al 1

2 2

09

17

192

9

1

75

17

141

2

4 1

71

40

219

5

6 2

30

41

236

3

3 2

54

Du

blin

4

7

2

5

1

18

0

5

2

14

6

4

3

2

1

11

1

5

Gal

way

12

240

2

5 1

74

9

156

1

6 1

60

25

201

1

9 2

58

25

225

2

9 1

94

32

202

Ker

ry 4

2 1

48

52

117

2

2 1

47

31

103

6

1 1

64

63

145

6

2 1

82

53

155

5

9 1

96

Kild

are

5

16

6

22

2

34

3

31

4

7

2

12

2

16

2

8

6

16

Kilk

enn

y 7

7

5 4

7

0 4

8

0 1

1 5

3 1

7 4

0 1

7 6

2 1

4 3

7 1

1 6

3 1

7 6

2

Lao

is 1

0 8

9 3

9

3 6

9

6 6

9

5 1

9 1

22

17

94

9

71

15

109

1

0 1

33

Lei

trim

27

102

1

9 1

16

27

129

2

4 9

0 3

8 1

00

27

88

27

72

38

79

60

66

Lim

eric

k 7

9

7 8

9

2 9

8

7 1

5 1

05

17

101

1

5 4

8 1

7 8

5 1

9 7

8 2

7 7

6

Lo

ng

ford

4

36

2

38

5

30

4

30

5

21

9

22

5

19

6

13

9

10

Lo

uth

0

10

-

11

0

2

1

18

1

12

0

1

1

1

1

3

1

9

May

o 3

0 4

3 9

6

1 8

5

0 1

3 7

0 2

8 4

6 3

7 6

3 1

9 7

2 2

3 8

2 3

8 8

2

Mea

th 0

1

8 1

5

0

3

1

5

2

2

1 2

6

3

-

4

2

4

2

Mo

nag

han

2

22

2

17

1

21

1

21

2

25

6

19

4

14

4

8

5

24

Off

aly

11

67

6

62

8

33

9

69

11

51

17

30

8

46

14

37

11

29

Ro

sco

mm

on

22

43

15

53

13

44

18

52

29

45

27

46

21

42

30

43

42

53

Slig

o 1

5 8

7 1

4 6

7 1

1 9

5 1

9 9

1 1

8 6

7 2

1 1

51

21

83

19

90

30

92

Tip

per

ary

14

169

1

1 1

86

10

195

1

8 2

25

33

124

2

5 1

75

21

154

2

4 1

63

36

166

Wat

erfo

rd 7

1

59

4

108

3

9

0 1

1 1

66

17

139

1

1 8

3 1

0 8

7 8

9

2 1

5 8

4

Wes

tmea

th 4

5

2 1

4

1 4

7

5 1

2 1

8 1

1 4

3 9

2

2 7

1

9 8

2

5 2

0 2

0

Wex

ford

3

37

1

41

1

19

7

56

8

58

4

41

4

33

7

62

12

75

Wic

klo

w 1

8 2

11

9

149

4

1

56

10

209

2

0 1

88

15

154

1

4 1

84

18

231

1

3 2

07

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

NA

3

80

NA

4

97

NA

4

97

NA

4

97

NA

4

97

NA

4

97

NA

4

91

NA

4

91

NA

4

91

Tota

ls 3

06

2,9

03

265

2

,744

2

05

2,8

17

321

2

,900

5

20

2,8

71

493

2

,676

4

51

2,7

67

486

2

,783

6

34

2,8

28

Tabl

e 14

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Tota

l 201

1-20

28

Co

un

ty /

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Car

low

5

19

9

29

15

18

10

34

16

43

16

37

12

36

25

36

9

36

137

5

35

Cav

an 2

9 4

4 4

0 5

8 3

6 3

2 6

9 7

1 5

8 4

5 7

0 4

0 4

0 5

4 7

3 5

4 5

1 5

4 5

79

846

Cla

re 1

03

167

1

19

162

8

9 1

84

177

1

24

93

180

1

21

161

1

76

218

2

59

218

1

54

218

1

,682

2

,938

Co

rk 8

8 2

83

128

2

93

103

3

27

221

3

67

101

3

73

150

3

62

119

3

67

289

3

67

232

3

67

1,7

27

6,0

75

Do

neg

al 4

8 2

35

70

288

6

8 2

74

70

229

4

2 2

35

53

238

5

7 3

09

131

3

09

77

309

8

64

4,2

53

Du

blin

2

12

6

33

2

6

4

16

1

4

2

10

4

8

7

8

11

8

60

175

Gal

way

59

141

5

0 1

55

40

147

9

0 1

37

129

1

41

104

1

53

112

1

92

337

1

92

151

1

92

1,2

67

3,2

61

Ker

ry 7

4 1

52

113

1

70

110

1

16

176

1

61

95

130

1

07

152

1

72

130

3

37

130

2

53

130

1

,882

2

,627

Kild

are

9

8

9

5

3

7

16

42

5

7

10

6

18

17

38

17

22

17

163

2

88

Kilk

enn

y 2

4 5

9 3

1 5

3 3

3 4

6 8

8 6

4 5

4 9

9 5

5 7

0 6

3 8

1 9

3 8

1 8

7 8

1 6

28

1,1

79

Lao

is 2

7 1

00

32

63

24

155

6

6 1

75

43

87

35

121

5

7 1

32

106

1

32

49

132

5

33

1,9

99

Lei

trim

71

116

7

4 1

33

80

114

1

26

90

53

101

8

9 1

15

158

1

18

137

1

18

143

1

18

1,2

18

1,8

64

Lim

eric

k 3

6 6

5 5

1 8

4 4

2 8

0 6

8 8

0 7

4 1

06

66

72

59

91

84

91

79

91

693

1

,529

Lo

ng

ford

17

24

13

8

9

14

17

14

24

24

20

15

22

20

52

20

36

20

258

3

79

Lo

uth

1

8

3

1

1

4

2

4

1

3

1

5

1

5

3

5

1

5

19

106

May

o 4

1 1

18

66

84

37

71

98

81

58

68

63

106

8

2 1

23

261

1

23

125

1

23

1,0

36

1,4

66

Mea

th 7

8

1

6 7

8

0

1

5 3

1

2 2

7

7

6

5

1

0 5

1

2 5

1

12

104

Mo

nag

han

5

15

12

33

7

11

10

18

7

25

7

21

13

27

21

27

6

27

115

3

72

Off

aly

14

59

35

38

27

34

38

40

23

27

38

27

29

50

122

5

0 5

7 5

0 4

78

799

Ro

sco

mm

on

49

54

48

55

49

44

92

51

63

56

98

57

122

6

6 2

47

66

159

6

6 1

,144

9

36

Slig

o 3

6 8

7 5

2 1

21

47

102

5

8 5

2 4

7 1

20

54

86

65

109

1

42

109

8

9 1

09

756

1

,717

Tip

per

ary

46

154

6

6 2

00

58

173

1

15

144

8

1 1

75

73

191

1

06

204

1

33

204

1

42

204

1

,011

3

,206

Wat

erfo

rd 2

6 8

7 4

8 8

1 3

7 1

18

79

148

3

7 1

25

48

112

2

8 1

30

93

130

6

4 1

30

545

2

,071

Wes

tmea

th 1

4 2

7 2

8 1

2 1

0 1

8 3

9 4

3

2 2

4 1

7 1

6 2

5 2

8 5

9 2

8 3

5 2

8 3

33

500

Wex

ford

13

50

30

55

14

61

34

45

24

64

37

42

23

42

24

42

27

42

273

8

63

Wic

klo

w 2

6 2

00

33

129

2

5 1

98

103

2

19

34

173

7

6 1

73

49

193

9

7 1

93

69

193

6

33

3,3

59

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

NA

4

91

NA

4

91

NA

4

54

NA

4

54

NA

4

54

NA

4

54

NA

4

54

NA

4

73

NA

4

73

NA

8

,539

Tota

ls 8

68

2,7

80

1,1

81

2,8

39

974

2

,808

1

,884

2

,868

1

,207

2

,891

1

,416

2

,850

1

,618

3

,207

3

,180

3

,226

2

,138

3

,226

1

8,14

7 5

1,98

5

Tabl

e 14

b

Tabl

e 14

: For

ecas

t of p

oten

tial s

pruc

e ne

t rea

lisab

le v

olum

e by

cou

nty

(000

m3

over

bark

) (C

ontin

ued)

.

Page 38: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

30 3130

Table15:ForecastofPotentialLodgepolePineNetRealisableVolumebyCounty(000

m3overbark).

Notes

1NorthernIreland

Nospeciesbreakdownisavailableforthe

privatesectorvolumes.

20value

A“0”value

indicatesthatthereisaforecastvolumebutthatitislessthan

1,000m

3 .3

“-“value

A“-“value

indicatesthatthereisazeroforecastvolume.

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Cou

nty/

NorthernIre

land

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Carlow

01

-1

-0

-0

-0

00

-1

21

-1

-1

Cavan

11

-1

-2

-0

03

14

01

51

01

01

Clare

311

010

09

031

019

519

118

1918

118

118

Cork

234

027

136

524

018

524

118

2418

618

118

Don

egal

122

-34

-16

124

219

47

427

1027

327

1027

Dub

lin0

2-

1-

0-

1-

00

1-

11

1-

1-

1Galway

229

460

173

186

181

368

256

1256

1056

1056

Kerry

227

010

17

014

010

78

19

199

19

19

Kild

are

15

40

-2

-1

01

00

-3

33

-3

-3

Kilken

ny1

3-

6-

2-

30

51

00

38

3-

31

3La

ois

013

014

-11

-4

-9

111

110

610

010

010

Leitrim

26

05

07

05

04

24

05

115

15

05

Limerick

08

07

05

04

03

12

01

61

01

01

Long

ford

03

-3

30

03

02

11

03

23

03

03

Louth

02

-0

-1

-3

02

00

01

11

-1

01

Mayo

186

150

069

147

254

665

376

1276

576

976

Meath

00

-0

-6

-3

01

08

01

21

-1

01

Mon

agha

n0

0-

00

0-

0-

20

00

01

0-

00

0Offa

ly0

121

7-

60

40

81

70

64

60

61

6Ros

common

15

012

01

014

15

20

17

67

07

37

Sligo

115

-11

014

011

114

216

016

616

216

616

Tipp

erary

125

023

-20

026

021

218

017

1317

017

117

Waterford

118

-6

-11

02

06

15

-4

94

04

04

Westm

eath

24

-9

111

-13

06

26

04

74

04

04

Wexford

135

-1

-3

-1

-1

12

02

62

-2

-2

Wicklow

111

-6

-8

06

-8

23

-7

87

07

07

NorthernIre

land

NA

10NA

10NA

15NA

15NA

15NA

15NA

15NA

16NA

16NA

16To

tals

24385

10314

7336

9343

9319

49295

15312

202

313

29313

45313

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Co

un

ty /

No

rth

ern

Ir

elan

dP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

S

Car

low

-

0

-

0

-

0

-

0

0

0

-

0

2

1

-

0

-

1

Cav

an -

2

-

2

-

0

0

2

1

2

0

0

5

0

0

1

0

1

Cla

re 0

1

2 0

1

9 0

2

7 0

1

5 5

1

8 1

1

8 1

9 1

7 1

1

2 1

1

3

Co

rk 0

2

6 1

2

9 5

3

3 0

2

1 5

2

5 1

1

2 2

4 1

7 6

1

4 1

1

8

Do

neg

al -

3

8 -

3

0 1

1

2 2

2

6 4

1

6 4

3

2 1

0 3

0 3

3

0 1

0 2

2

Du

blin

-

0

-

0

-

1

-

0

0

1

-

0

1

0

-

0

-

0

Gal

way

4

41

1

82

1

74

1

72

3

45

2

142

1

2 5

9 1

0 5

8 1

0 5

9

Ker

ry 0

1

1 1

1

4 0

1

8 0

2

0 7

7

1

7

1

9 9

1

9

1

5

Kild

are

4

1

-

-

-

3

0

0

0

0

-

1

3

1

-

0

-

1

Kilk

enn

y -

4

-

1

-

3

0

5

1

1

0

4

8

3

-

1

1

1

Lao

is 0

7

-

1

1 -

1

-

4

1

3

1

6

6

1

0 0

1

1 0

9

Lei

trim

0

10

0

6

0

5

0

4

2

4

0

2

11

6

1

2

0

5

Lim

eric

k 0

3

0

3

0

2

0

8

1

2

0

0

6

1

0

2

0

1

Lo

ng

ford

-

2

3

0

0

4

0

3

1

1

0

1

2

2

0

2

0

6

Lo

uth

-

0

-

0

-

0

0

1

0

1

0

1

1

0

-

1

0

0

May

o 1

4

5 0

6

3 1

7

3 2

7

5 6

9

3 3

6

0 1

2 8

6 5

9

4 9

9

8

Mea

th -

3

-

0

-

-

0

-

0

2

0

3

2

-

-

0

0

0

Mo

nag

han

-

0

0

0

-

0

-

1

0

0

0

0

1

0

-

0

0

0

Off

aly

1

1

-

5

0

3

0

0

1

3

0

1

4

4

0

5

1

0

Ro

sco

mm

on

0

8

0

2

0

14

1

4

2

2

1

5

6

3

0

6

3

7

Slig

o -

7

0

1

7 0

7

1

1

6 2

1

8 0

1

2 6

1

2 2

8

6

2

0

Tip

per

ary

0

18

-

28

0

18

0

16

2

14

0

12

13

14

0

9

1

7

Wat

erfo

rd -

9

-

5

0

2

0

6

1

7

-

3

9

2

0

4

0

3

Wes

tmea

th -

7

1

2

-

8

0

8

2

2

0

1

7

1

0

2

0

1

Wex

ford

-

1

-

0

-

0

-

2

1

1

0

1

6

1

-

2

-

2

Wic

klo

w -

1

-

3

0

4

-

4

2

2

-

1

8

1

0

1

0

1

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

NA

1

0 N

A

15

NA

1

5 N

A

15

NA

1

5 N

A

15

NA

1

6 N

A

16

NA

1

6

Tota

ls 1

0 2

66

7

335

9

3

27

9

329

4

9 2

85

15

340

2

02

296

2

9 2

92

45

298

Tabl

e 15

Tabl

e 15

: For

ecas

t of p

oten

tial l

odge

pole

pin

e ne

t rea

lisab

le v

olum

e by

cou

nty

(000

m3

over

bark

).

Page 39: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

30 31

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Co

un

ty /

No

rth

ern

Ir

elan

dP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

S

Car

low

-

0

-

0

-

0

-

0

0

0

-

0

2

1

-

0

-

1

Cav

an -

2

-

2

-

0

0

2

1

2

0

0

5

0

0

1

0

1

Cla

re 0

1

2 0

1

9 0

2

7 0

1

5 5

1

8 1

1

8 1

9 1

7 1

1

2 1

1

3

Co

rk 0

2

6 1

2

9 5

3

3 0

2

1 5

2

5 1

1

2 2

4 1

7 6

1

4 1

1

8

Do

neg

al -

3

8 -

3

0 1

1

2 2

2

6 4

1

6 4

3

2 1

0 3

0 3

3

0 1

0 2

2

Du

blin

-

0

-

0

-

1

-

0

0

1

-

0

1

0

-

0

-

0

Gal

way

4

41

1

82

1

74

1

72

3

45

2

142

1

2 5

9 1

0 5

8 1

0 5

9

Ker

ry 0

1

1 1

1

4 0

1

8 0

2

0 7

7

1

7

1

9 9

1

9

1

5

Kild

are

4

1

-

-

-

3

0

0

0

0

-

1

3

1

-

0

-

1

Kilk

enn

y -

4

-

1

-

3

0

5

1

1

0

4

8

3

-

1

1

1

Lao

is 0

7

-

1

1 -

1

-

4

1

3

1

6

6

1

0 0

1

1 0

9

Lei

trim

0

10

0

6

0

5

0

4

2

4

0

2

11

6

1

2

0

5

Lim

eric

k 0

3

0

3

0

2

0

8

1

2

0

0

6

1

0

2

0

1

Lo

ng

ford

-

2

3

0

0

4

0

3

1

1

0

1

2

2

0

2

0

6

Lo

uth

-

0

-

0

-

0

0

1

0

1

0

1

1

0

-

1

0

0

May

o 1

4

5 0

6

3 1

7

3 2

7

5 6

9

3 3

6

0 1

2 8

6 5

9

4 9

9

8

Mea

th -

3

-

0

-

-

0

-

0

2

0

3

2

-

-

0

0

0

Mo

nag

han

-

0

0

0

-

0

-

1

0

0

0

0

1

0

-

0

0

0

Off

aly

1

1

-

5

0

3

0

0

1

3

0

1

4

4

0

5

1

0

Ro

sco

mm

on

0

8

0

2

0

14

1

4

2

2

1

5

6

3

0

6

3

7

Slig

o -

7

0

1

7 0

7

1

1

6 2

1

8 0

1

2 6

1

2 2

8

6

2

0

Tip

per

ary

0

18

-

28

0

18

0

16

2

14

0

12

13

14

0

9

1

7

Wat

erfo

rd -

9

-

5

0

2

0

6

1

7

-

3

9

2

0

4

0

3

Wes

tmea

th -

7

1

2

-

8

0

8

2

2

0

1

7

1

0

2

0

1

Wex

ford

-

1

-

0

-

0

-

2

1

1

0

1

6

1

-

2

-

2

Wic

klo

w -

1

-

3

0

4

-

4

2

2

-

1

8

1

0

1

0

1

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

NA

1

0 N

A

15

NA

1

5 N

A

15

NA

1

5 N

A

15

NA

1

6 N

A

16

NA

1

6

Tota

ls 1

0 2

66

7

335

9

3

27

9

329

4

9 2

85

15

340

2

02

296

2

9 2

92

45

298

Tabl

e 15

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Tota

l 201

1-20

28

Co

un

ty /

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Car

low

1

1

-

0

-

0

-

0

-

0

0

0

0

1

0

1

-

1

3

8

Cav

an 7

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

1

1

3

1

0

1

0

1

1

8 1

8

Cla

re 5

2 2

7 5

6

3

1

1 6

4

1

0 1

5 1

1 1

0 1

3 8

1

6 8

7

8

1

50

247

Co

rk 4

3 1

5 1

5 7

3

1

4 9

1

5 1

0 2

1 2

8 1

7 9

1

7 1

3 1

7 9

1

7 1

82

337

Do

neg

al 5

6 2

4 3

8 3

8 4

7 4

1 2

4 3

2 7

1 3

7 1

46

29

52

19

66

19

29

19

560

4

91

Du

blin

4

0

-

2

-

2

-

0

-

0

1

1

-

0

1

0

-

0

7

8

Gal

way

60

44

21

46

15

52

20

43

17

34

20

39

39

21

44

21

12

21

292

9

55

Ker

ry 9

7 8

9

1

1 5

8

1

8 2

1

2 3

2

6 3

1

3 3

1

6 3

1

6 3

2

42

145

Kild

are

5

2

-

1

0

-

0

0

1

-

1

1

1

2

2

2

0

2

17

15

Kilk

enn

y 8

7

1

2

6

1

2

1

1

2

1

1

0

2

2

2

2

2

3

2 4

0

Lao

is 1

2 8

1

8

0

1

2 1

2

2 4

1

3

1

7 1

1

1 4

1

1 2

1

1 3

7 1

63

Lei

trim

19

1

2

0

2

8

2

1

1

5

6

3

8

2

10

2

3

2

68

66

Lim

eric

k 1

1 1

3

1

4

3

1

2

2

5

6

1

3

6

8

6

2

6

4

8 5

3

Lo

ng

ford

9

1

1

0

1

2

2

0

0

0

2

2

3

2

3

2

2

2

30

33

Lo

uth

1

0

-

0

-

0

-

0

-

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-

0

2

5

May

o 6

1 1

18

39

82

31

88

13

100

4

7 6

4 4

1 9

0 6

7 7

6 5

3 7

6 4

4 7

6 4

32

1,4

58

Mea

th 2

0

0

0

0

-

-

0

1

0

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

8

9

Mo

nag

han

1

0

0

4

1

0

0

0

-

0

0

0

0

1

-

1

0

1

3

9

Off

aly

16

5

1

7

5

1

2

2

5

5

6

8

11

6

9

6

2

6

64

71

Ro

sco

mm

on

27

5

5

0

11

1

7

1

13

2

16

4

21

5

18

5

9

5

139

8

0

Slig

o 2

5 1

3 7

1

6 1

1 1

3 8

1

4 1

2 1

7 1

9 5

3

4 1

0 9

1

0 1

0 1

0 1

51

224

Tip

per

ary

23

16

2

10

0

14

7

11

5

9

10

7

14

14

6

14

10

14

91

243

Wat

erfo

rd 1

5 4

4

2

2

4

0

1

1 0

6

3

4

5

8

5

8

2

8

4

9 9

7

Wes

tmea

th 1

7 3

1

1

0

4

0

0

0

1

7

4

2

4

3

4

4

4

4

6 5

8

Wex

ford

6

1

0

0

0

1

1

1

0

2

1

1

0

1

0

1

1

1

16

20

Wic

klo

w 1

5 2

-

0

2

2

0

0

0

4

4

1

1

8

2

8

0

8

3

4 5

0

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

NA

1

6 N

A

16

NA

2

2 N

A

22

NA

2

2 N

A

22

NA

2

2 N

A

23

NA

2

3 N

A

320

Tota

ls 5

89

325

1

51

261

1

50

303

1

23

285

2

11

258

3

63

271

3

02

250

2

90

251

1

66

251

2

,721

5

,222

Tabl

e 15

b

Tabl

e 15

: For

ecas

t of p

oten

tial l

odge

pole

pin

e ne

t rea

lisab

le v

olum

e by

cou

nty

(000

m3

over

bark

) (C

ontin

ued)

.

Page 40: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

32 3332

Table16:ForecastofPotentialOtherConiferNetRealisableVolumebyCounty(000

m3overbark).

Notes

1OtherConifers

Thisincludesvolumefrompine

speciesotherthanlodgepolepine

e.g.ScotsPine

2NorthernIreland

Nospeciesvolumeisavailableforprivatesectorvolumes.

30value

A“0”value

indicatesthatthereisaforecastvolumebutthatitislessthan

1,000m

3 .4

“-“value

A“-“value

indicatesthatthereisazeroforecastvolume.

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Cou

nty/

NorthernIre

land

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Private

Coillte

NIFS

Carlow

04

04

02

02

02

13

05

15

15

05

Cavan

01

01

12

11

12

13

12

22

22

22

Clare

01

03

52

11

11

22

24

64

54

34

Cork

027

115

421

214

218

316

218

618

518

318

Don

egal

02

16

44

13

13

23

17

57

27

27

Dub

lin0

1-

41

10

00

00

10

21

20

20

2Galway

06

014

24

013

27

14

14

34

14

34

Kerry

16

04

72

13

24

24

15

95

45

35

Kild

are

00

00

12

-0

00

00

02

12

02

02

Kilken

ny1

20

71

50

61

91

71

92

91

92

9La

ois

09

05

24

04

32

15

15

25

25

35

Leitrim

01

00

20

01

19

11

12

32

12

12

Limerick

04

03

13

03

12

13

23

33

33

23

Long

ford

05

03

10

02

04

00

01

11

11

11

Louth

02

-2

04

02

03

01

-3

03

03

03

Mayo

12

11

51

13

11

22

24

54

24

24

Meath

04

00

00

0-

10

00

10

10

10

20

Mon

agha

n0

00

30

00

00

20

40

10

10

10

1Offa

ly0

21

22

71

21

10

01

22

21

21

2Ros

common

02

01

20

01

01

10

11

11

11

11

Sligo

01

06

31

11

10

12

12

32

12

12

Tipp

erary

116

116

213

320

116

217

315

515

415

315

Waterford

130

116

322

19

113

120

123

423

223

123

Westm

eath

13

00

12

01

02

00

03

13

13

13

Wexford

020

07

110

010

09

111

113

113

113

113

Wicklow

143

123

818

327

120

221

332

932

332

332

NorthernIre

land

NA

37NA

37NA

34NA

34NA

34NA

34NA

34NA

32NA

32NA

32To

tals

9233

9183

57166

17164

21165

23166

27202

74200

44200

40200

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Co

un

ty /

No

rth

ern

Ir

elan

dP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

SP

riva

teC

oill

te

NIF

S

Car

low

0

1

0

2

0

6

0

8

1

10

0

4

1

2

1

12

0

5

Cav

an 0

2

1

3

1

1

1

4

1

3

1

4

2

1

2

3

2

3

Cla

re 0

4

5

2

1

2

1

1

2

2

2

7

6

2

5

4

3

5

Co

rk 1

2

8 4

2

3 2

2

3 2

2

8 3

2

7 2

2

8 6

1

9 5

1

2 3

2

0

Do

neg

al 1

1

4 4

9

1

5

1

3

2

4

1

1

2 5

3

2

5

2

1

3

Du

blin

-

0

1

1

0

1

0

-

0

1

0

4

1

0

0

2

0

0

Gal

way

0

8

2

8

0

14

2

14

1

8

1

10

3

15

1

11

3

16

Ker

ry 0

5

7

4

1

3

2

2

2

6

1

1

0 9

5

4

9

3

2

Kild

are

0

2

1

1

-

2

0

4

0

1

0

2

1

1

0

2

0

1

Kilk

enn

y 0

7

1

6

0

1

0 1

9

1

6

1

7

2

1

8 1

5

2

9

Lao

is 0

8

2

5

0

7

3

5

1

7

1

1

0 2

7

2

5

3

7

Lei

trim

0

1

2

1

0

3

1

3

1

3

1

1

3

0

1

9

1

1

Lim

eric

k 0

6

1

2

0

3

1

3

1

4

2

4

3

2

3

2

2

2

Lo

ng

ford

0

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

6

0

2

1

0

1

0

1

0

Lo

uth

-

3

0

4

0

6

0

2

0

2

-

3

0

2

0

1

0

2

May

o 1

2

5

2

1

5

1

1

2

2

2

1

5

3

2

2

2

2

Mea

th 0

1

0

1

0

0

1

1

0

1

1

0

1

-

1

0

2

1

Mo

nag

han

0

2

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

4

0

2

0

0

0

0

0

1

Off

aly

1

5

2

6

1

2

1

5

0

2

1

4

2

2

1

7

1

4

Ro

sco

mm

on

0

2

2

1

0

1

0

0

1

0

1

0

1

2

1

2

1

0

Slig

o 0

2

3

2

1

2

1

3

1

6

1

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

Tip

per

ary

1

34

2

20

3

22

1

33

2

18

3

16

5

20

4

20

3

19

Wat

erfo

rd 1

2

6 3

2

7 1

1

7 1

1

9 1

2

8 1

2

1 4

1

3 2

1

8 1

2

8

Wes

tmea

th 0

1

1

5

0

3

0

1

0

1

0

2

1

0

1

4

1

0

Wex

ford

0

8

1

9

0

15

0

11

1

20

1

16

1

14

1

22

1

26

Wic

klo

w 1

2

4 8

2

6 3

1

4 1

2

8 2

2

9 3

5

7 9

3

3 3

4

1 3

2

4

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

NA

3

7 N

A

34

NA

3

4 N

A

34

NA

3

4 N

A

34

NA

3

2 N

A

32

NA

3

2

Tota

ls 9

2

36

57

204

1

7 2

01

21

223

2

3 2

33

27

265

7

4 1

99

44

231

4

0 2

24

Tabl

e 16

Tabl

e 16

: For

ecas

t of p

oten

tial o

ther

con

ifer

net r

ealis

able

vol

ume

by c

ount

y (0

00 m

3 ov

erba

rk).

Page 41: Henry Phillips - COFORD...Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2011. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast 2011-2028. COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

32 33

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Tota

l 201

1-20

28

Co

un

ty /

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Pri

vate

Co

illte

N

IFS

Car

low

1

4

0

3

1

1

0

7

1

4

2

4

0

5

2

5

2

5

13

90

Cav

an 1

5

1

4

2

1

2

4

4

3

3

2

1

5

1

2 5

2

5

3

7 5

6

Cla

re 3

6

4

3

8

2

6

4

5

5

8

7

3

3

4

7 3

5

3

1

12

65

Co

rk 5

2

8 1

0 3

0 9

2

7 6

2

3 8

2

3 1

4 3

2 6

2

8 5

3 2

8 5

2

8 1

43

458

Do

neg

al 2

1

2 2

7

5

1

3 2

4

4

5

4

7

2

9

4

0 9

3

9

8

3 1

42

Du

blin

0

1

0

2

1

0

0

5

0

0

0

1

0

3

3

3

0

3

7

29

Gal

way

2

8

2

6

3

10

1

4

2

6

6

8

2

7

38

7

1

7

70

168

Ker

ry 3

7

2

7

9

8

5

2

4

4

1

0 8

5

3

8

5 3

6

3

1

57

91

Kild

are

0

1

0

2

1

8

0

1

2

1

2

0

1

1

7

1

0

1

16

30

Kilk

enn

y 2

1

6 2

7

2

7

1

1

2 3

1

3 5

7

7

1

0 1

5 1

0 2

1

0 4

9 1

68

Lao

is 2

8

3

9

2

1

2 3

5

6

9

5

1

0 2

4

2

3 4

3

4

6

2 1

28

Lei

trim

2

7

2

6

3

3

2

1

3

2

2

7

2

1

21

1

2

1

51

51

Lim

eric

k 2

3

5

8

3

5

3

7

3

5

6

4

4

5

1

4 5

3

5

5

5 7

5

Lo

ng

ford

0

1

1

3

1

0

1

0

2

1

1

2

1

0

8

0

1

0

19

20

Lo

uth

0

3

0

4

0

3

0

1

1

3

1

3

0

1

2

1

0

1

5

43

May

o 3

1

0 3

2

5

1

2

4

3

4

5

3

3

2

4

1 2

3

2

8

6 4

9

Mea

th 0

1

1

0

1

-

1

0

1

1

2

0

2

0

3

0

1

0

1

6 8

Mo

nag

han

1

2

1

3

0

1

0

3

1

2

1

1

1

1

3

1

0

1

8

27

Off

aly

1

6

1

4

3

6

2

1

9

9

5

3

2

1

18

1

1

1

51

68

Ro

sco

mm

on

2

1

2

1

2

2

1

0

5

2

2

1

1

2

21

2

1

2

44

23

Slig

o 1

1

0 1

1

3

2

2

1

5

3

2

5

2

2

2

2 2

1

2

5

0 5

0

Tip

per

ary

4

23

5

27

7

25

5

25

4

28

9

29

5

30

26

30

5

30

93

449

Wat

erfo

rd 2

2

2 2

2

8 4

2

7 3

3

1 3

2

5 8

2

0 3

2

2 1

8 2

2 3

2

2 5

9 4

16

Wes

tmea

th 1

6

1

1

1

1

1

1

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34 35

Private Sector ROI Coillte TOTALS

Year 1st Thin 2nd Thin 3rd + Sub Clearfell 1st Thin 2nd Thin 3rd + Sub Clearfell 1st Thin 2nd Thin 3rd + Sub Clearfell

2011 262 39 7 63 306 159 122 2,391 568 198 129 2,454

2012 220 97 4 63 337 212 144 2,044 557 308 148 2,107

2013 182 90 56 40 309 193 177 2,119 491 284 234 2,159

2014 213 169 9 34 307 266 188 2,144 521 435 196 2,178

2015 216 239 15 35 403 266 204 1,971 618 505 219 2,006

2016 259 217 35 54 309 314 251 1,861 568 530 286 1,914

2017 264 176 72 241 343 304 247 1,828 607 480 318 2,069

2018 299 135 93 103 336 304 320 1,807 635 438 413 1,910

2019 297 194 147 213 273 354 375 1,809 570 548 522 2,022

2020 241 193 197 609 326 332 400 1,784 566 525 598 2,393

2021 286 244 201 773 282 349 425 1,773 568 593 626 2,546

2022 271 270 225 650 240 306 484 1,835 511 575 709 2,484

2023 215 268 175 1,477 180 304 534 1,866 394 572 709 3,342

2024 203 267 295 998 174 316 523 1,889 377 584 818 2,887

2025 114 240 372 1,038 150 280 560 1,875 264 521 931 2,913

2026 100 244 345 1,353 152 171 842 2,018 253 415 1,188 3,371

2027 55 174 285 2,843 152 171 842 2,018 207 345 1,127 4,861

2028 65 235 438 2,491 152 171 842 2,018 217 406 1,280 4,509

Totals 3,762 3,490 2,971 13,077 4,731 4,773 7,481 35,049 8,493 8,264 10,451 48,126

Appendix 1

Addendum: Estimate of Potential Availability of Wood Fibre for Energy

ESTIMATE OF POTENTIAL AVAILABILITY OF WOOD FIBRE FOR ENERGY

INTRODUCTION3

Ireland is heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels for the generation of heat and electricity. Under the EU renewable energydirective Ireland’s target for 2020 is for renewable energy sources to provide 16% of final energy consumption. In 2006,the Irish Government introduced a five year capital programme with €86 million funding to underpin the growth of theIrish renewable heat sector. This includes:

(1) Combined Heat & Power (CHP) Grant Scheme: This programme provides grants for the installation of CHP units.One strand covers grant-aid for biomass-fired CHP. To date, one biomass CHP project has been commissioned under thisscheme and a number of others are in the early stages of development.

(2) Biomass for Households and Medium-sized Businesses: In recent years, wood biomass systems have been promotedand developed for use in households and in medium-sized industrial premises. This is being promoted by State Agenciesincluding COFORD, the Forest Service, Teagasc and by the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI).

(3) Greener Homes Scheme (GHS): This grant scheme was established in 2006. It allows householders to obtain grantsfor the installation of renewable heat technologies including wood pellet stoves, boilers, solar panels and geothermal heatpumps. Up to June 2010, 28,686 applications had been approved under the GHS Table 1). The scheme has surpassed itsoriginal targets.

35

Table 1: Uptake of the GHS 2009-2010.GHS Scheme % of Total

4/2009 6/20104

Solar 54% 59%Heat pump 23% 20%Biomass 23% 20%Wood gasification 0.4%

ReHeat Programme

This grant support scheme enables community groups, commercial sector, public sector and industrial sector organisationsto obtain grants for the installation of wood chip and wood pellet boilers. By June 2010, some 163 biomass projects hadbeen completed under this scheme with a total output of 67.6 megawatts.

Renewable Energy Feed-In Tariff (REFIT)

The REFIT scheme provides support to renewable energy projects over a fifteen year period. The new support mechanismdiffers from the previous programme in that it operates as a fixed feed in tariff mechanism rather than as a competitivetendering process. The new SEAI Biomass CHP/AD CHP call for proposals has an indicative budget of €5-8 million andwill provide grant support to assist the deployment of CHP systems fuelled by biomass5.

6 Based on UNECE Timber Committee Market Report for Ireland 2010. Compiled on behalf of COFORD/Forest Service by Eoin O’Driscoll (Drima Marketing)4 Due to rounding differences, these numbers do not total 100%5 http://www.seai.ie/Grants/Biomass_CHP_Anaerobic_Digestion_CHP_Call_for_Proposals/

Appendix 1: Forecast of potential net realisable volume production by harvest type for ROI (000 m3 overbark).

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34 35

Addendum

Estimate of potential availability of wood fibre for energy

Introduction3

Ireland is heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels for the generation of heat and electricity. Under the EU renewable energy directiveIreland’stargetfor2020isforrenewableenergysourcestoprovide16%offinalenergyconsumption.In2006,theIrishGovernmentintroducedafiveyearcapitalprogrammeof€86milliontounderpinthegrowthoftheIrishrenewableheat sector. This includes:

combINeD Heat & Power (cHP) GraNt ScHemeThisprogrammeprovidesgrantsfortheinstallationofCHPunits.Onestrandcoversgrant-aidforbiomass-firedCHP.Todate, one biomass CHP project has been commissioned under this scheme and a number of others are in the early stages of development.

bIomaSS For HouSeHolDS aND meDIum-SIzeD buSINeSSeSIn recent years, wood biomass systems have been promoted and developed for use in households and in medium-sized industrial premises. This is being promoted by state agencies including the Forest Service, Teagasc and by the Sustainable EnergyAuthorityofIreland(SEAI).

GreeNer HomeS ScHeme (GHS)The scheme was established in 2006. It allows householders to obtain grants for the installation of renewable heat technologies including wood pellet stoves, boilers, solar panels and geothermal heat pumps. Up to June 2010, 28,686 applications had been approved under the GHS (Table 1). The scheme has surpassed its original targets.

reHeat ProGramme This grant scheme enables community groups, the commercial sector, public sector and industrial sector organisations to obtain grants for the installation of wood chip and wood pellet boilers. By June 2010, some 163 biomass projects had been completed with a total installed capacity of 67.6 megawatts.

reNewable eNerGy FeeD-IN tarIFF (reFIt)The REFIT scheme provides support to renewable energy projects over a 15-year period. The new support mechanism differsfromthepreviousprogrammeinthat itoperatesasafixedfeedin tariffmechanismrather thanasacompetitivetenderingprocess.ThenewSEAIBiomassCHP/ADCHPcallforproposalshasanindicativebudgetof€5-8millionandwill provide grant support to assist the deployment of CHP systems fuelled by biomass5.

Addendum: Estimate of Potential Availability of Wood Fibre for Energy

ESTIMATE OF POTENTIAL AVAILABILITY OF WOOD FIBRE FOR ENERGY

INTRODUCTION3

Ireland is heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels for the generation of heat and electricity. Under the EU renewable energydirective Ireland’s target for 2020 is for renewable energy sources to provide 16% of final energy consumption. In 2006,the Irish Government introduced a five year capital programme with €86 million funding to underpin the growth of theIrish renewable heat sector. This includes:

(1) Combined Heat & Power (CHP) Grant Scheme: This programme provides grants for the installation of CHP units.One strand covers grant-aid for biomass-fired CHP. To date, one biomass CHP project has been commissioned under thisscheme and a number of others are in the early stages of development.

(2) Biomass for Households and Medium-sized Businesses: In recent years, wood biomass systems have been promotedand developed for use in households and in medium-sized industrial premises. This is being promoted by State Agenciesincluding COFORD, the Forest Service, Teagasc and by the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI).

(3) Greener Homes Scheme (GHS): This grant scheme was established in 2006. It allows householders to obtain grantsfor the installation of renewable heat technologies including wood pellet stoves, boilers, solar panels and geothermal heatpumps. Up to June 2010, 28,686 applications had been approved under the GHS Table 1). The scheme has surpassed itsoriginal targets.

35

Table 1: Uptake of the GHS 2009-2010.GHS Scheme % of Total

4/2009 6/20104

Solar 54% 59%Heat pump 23% 20%Biomass 23% 20%Wood gasification 0.4%

ReHeat Programme

This grant support scheme enables community groups, commercial sector, public sector and industrial sector organisationsto obtain grants for the installation of wood chip and wood pellet boilers. By June 2010, some 163 biomass projects hadbeen completed under this scheme with a total output of 67.6 megawatts.

Renewable Energy Feed-In Tariff (REFIT)

The REFIT scheme provides support to renewable energy projects over a fifteen year period. The new support mechanismdiffers from the previous programme in that it operates as a fixed feed in tariff mechanism rather than as a competitivetendering process. The new SEAI Biomass CHP/AD CHP call for proposals has an indicative budget of €5-8 million andwill provide grant support to assist the deployment of CHP systems fuelled by biomass5.

6 Based on UNECE Timber Committee Market Report for Ireland 2010. Compiled on behalf of COFORD/Forest Service by Eoin O’Driscoll (Drima Marketing)4 Due to rounding differences, these numbers do not total 100%5 http://www.seai.ie/Grants/Biomass_CHP_Anaerobic_Digestion_CHP_Call_for_Proposals/

3 Based on UNECE Timber Committee Market Report for Ireland 2010. Compiled on behalf of COFORD/Forest Service by Eoin O’Driscoll (Drima Marketing)4 Due to rounding differences, these numbers do not total 100%5 http://www.seai.ie/Grants/Biomass_CHP_Anaerobic_Digestion_CHP_Call_for_Proposals/

Addendum Table 1: Uptake of the Greener Homes Scheme 2009-2010.

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36 37

Current position

BalcasLtd.inNorthernIrelandwasthefirstwoodpelletfacilityinIreland.DPelletLtdwasthefirstwoodpelletsproductionfacility to operate in the ROI in 2008. In early 2009, Laois Sawmills commenced production of wood pellets and is currently supplying wood pellets in bulk form. In May 2009, Imperative Energy announced that it was in the process of building awoodpellet, bio-refining andCHP facility atClaremorris,CoMayo.When fullyoperational, the facilitywill have acapacity to produce 60,000 tonnes of pellets/annum, together with a 15MWth/5MWe CHP plant. The plan also includes a bio-processing plant, with an annual capacity of 20,000 tonnes. There are currently three commercial wood fuelled biomass CHP plants in operation on the island of Ireland: Balcas Fuel Ltd, Grainger Sawmills Ltd and Munster Joinery Ltd, with a combined installed capacity of 14.0 MWth and an energy output of 7.7 MWe. These rely heavily on own-produced processing residues as a fuel source. Edenderry Power, a modern peat-burning power station operated by Bord Na Móna is currently working to increase the volume of wood biomass used as a feedstock for its electricity generation process. In 2009, the plant used 61,700 tonnes of woodchip and sawdust and a further 6,240 tonnes of wood pellets. The planned intake for the same mix of material in 2010 is 100,000 tonnes, increasing to a requirement for 160,000 tonnes by 20166. The estimated 2011 total demand for wood energy, excluding post consumer work (PCRW), in Ireland is 1.59 million m3 (ROI 0.95 million m3) and this is estimated to increase to 3.08 million m3 (ROI 1.67 million m3) by 20287.

Future development

The future development of the emerging wood energy sector is dependant on a sustainable and increasing supply of raw material including small roundwood and wood residues from the processing sector. To date there has been little information provided within the Republic of Ireland (ROI) on the availability or otherwise of roundwood and wood residues for energy apart from the inclusion of a wood energy assortment in the private sector forecast(Phillipsetal.2009).Thishasledvariouspotentialinvestorstointerpretstandardforecastoutputsandwoodflowsinanefforttoestimatewhatleveloffuturewoodfibreispotentiallyavailableforenergy. Againstthebackgroundofgovernmentsupportschemesfortheuseofwoodenergy,increasinginvestmentinwoodpellet and CHP plants and an expanding wood chip market for domestic and businesses, there is now an urgent need to provideanestimateofthepotentialwoodfibreavailabilityforenergyuse.Thiswillfacilitateinvestmentdecisionsonfuturefacilities and inform policy makers.

Estimate of wood fibre availability for energy

There are three main sources of raw material for wood energy – small roundwood from thinnings, wood residues from theprocessingsectorandpostconsumerrecycledwood(PCRW).Additionalrawmaterialispotentiallyavailablethroughthe harvesting of tree tips (tip–7 cm) and through the collection of harvesting residues and some harvest loss material) on suitable sites. In compiling the estimate of potentially available material, a number of assumptions were made of which the main ones were: • Anincreasingvolumeofsmallroundwoodfromthinningsintheprivatesectorwillpotentiallybeavailableforwood energy; • Anincreasingvolumeofdowngradematerialfromthelargersizeassortmentsintheprivatesectorwillbeavailablefor woodenergy; • Anincreasingvolumeofwoodresiduesfromtheprocessingsectorwillbeavailableforwoodenergy; • Lessthan40%ofthetip-7cmvolumewillbepotentiallyharvestable; • TheavailabilityofPCRWwillincreaseonlyslightlyfromcurrentlevels;and • Theestimatedincreaseddemandforsmallroundwoodforthewoodpanelssectorwillbemetfromtheforecastvolume in the 7-13 cm assortment and downgrade from the larger size assortments.

6 Reilly,John.2010.TheCo-firingmarketforwoodbiomass.PresentationNationalForestryConference,Generatingrevenuefromyourwoodlands.26March,2010.7 COFORDRoundwoodDemandGroup.Allislandroundwooddemandto2020.Draftdated17September2010.

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36 37

Based on the assumptions outlined above and on the net realisable volumes in the all Ireland forecast, the potential wood fibreavailableforenergytotals23.575millionm3 over the forecast period. The volume increases from an estimated 1.07 million m3 in 2011 to a maximum of 1.81 million m3 in 2027. Based on the estimated demand for wood energy there will beaverytightsupply/demandsituationforthenextfivetosixyearsandfullmobilisationofprivatesectorvolumeswillberequired. It cannot be overemphasised that the volumes of roundwood and wood residues in Table 1 may end up in other end uses. Market price will ultimately determine whether the material goes to energy.

• The estimated increased demand for small roundwood for the wood panels sector will be met from the forecast volumein the 7-13 cm assortment and downgrade from the larger size assortments.

Based on the assumptions outlined above and on the net realisable volumes in the all-Ireland forecast, the potential woodfibre available for energy totals 23.749 million m3 over the forecast period. The volume increases from an estimated 0.84million in 2011 to 1.81 million m3 in 2027. Based on the current (2010) estimated demand for wood energy there will bea very tight supply/demand situation for the next five to six years and full mobilisation of private sector volumes will berequired. It cannot be overemphasised that the volumes of roundwood and wood residues in Table 1 may end up in otherend uses. Market price will ultimately determine whether the material goes to energy.

37

Tip - 7cm Roundwood7 - 13cm

Downgrade + WoodResidues

PCRW Total Energy ContentMillions(GJ)

Year

2010 46 188 635 85 954 6.59

2011 42 193 518 86 839 5.79

2012 47 202 568 87 904 6.24

2013 43 173 546 88 850 5.87

2014 48 206 628 88 971 6.70

2015 49 226 585 89 949 6.55

2016 53 252 692 91 1,088 7.51

2017 56 304 747 93 1,200 8.28

2018 54 264 698 95 1,111 7.66

2019 56 296 745 97 1,194 8.24

2020 60 378 848 99 1,385 9.56

2021 58 365 897 101 1,421 9.80

2022 57 364 888 103 1,412 9.74

2023 60 376 972 105 1,513 10.44

2024 58 368 929 107 1,462 10.08

2025 54 327 900 109 1,390 9.59

2026 55 331 1,052 111 1,549 10.68

2027 62 398 1,236 113 1,809 12.48

2028 61 382 1,191 116 1,749 12.07

Totals 1,021 5,594 15,274 1,861 23,749 163.87

NoteThe Total is not an estimate of new or additional volume available for wood energy over and above current usage. Wood energy will haveto compete with other end uses for the volumes indicated. The volume of downgrade material and wood residues arising from roundwoodprocessing are already included in the 14 cm plus category of the forecast of net realisable volume.

Table 1: Estimate of Wood Fibre Potentially Available for Energy in ROI (‘000m3).

Year Tip - 7cmRoundwood

7 - 13cmDowngrade +

Wood ResiduesPCRW Total

Energy Content Millions(GJ)

2011 48 199 737 86 1,069 7.38

2012 45 202 626 87 959 6.61

2013 44 177 639 88 948 6.54

2014 47 203 726 88 1,065 7.35

2015 48 232 735 89 1,104 7.62

2016 48 251 692 91 1,083 7.47

2017 52 303 734 93 1,182 8.16

2018 50 265 712 95 1,122 7.74

2019 53 296 784 97 1,230 8.49

2020 58 382 915 99 1,453 10.02

2021 59 374 910 101 1,444 9.97

2022 59 369 901 103 1,431 9.88

2023 63 378 982 105 1,527 10.53

2024 60 369 942 107 1,478 10.20

2025 56 325 882 109 1,372 9.47

2026 55 331 1,052 111 1,549 10.69

2027 63 398 1,236 113 1,809 12.49

2028 61 382 1,191 116 1,750 12.07

Totals 970 5,435 15,395 1,776 23,575 162.67

Appendix II / Addendum

Note

The total is not an estimate of new or additional volume available for wood energy over and above current usage. Wood energy will have to compete with other end uses for the volumes indicated. The volume of downgrade material and wood residues arising from roundwood processing are already included in the 14 cm plus category of the forecast of net realisable volume.

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40

COFORD

Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food

Agriculture House, Kildare Street

Dublin 2, Ireland

Telephone: +353 (0)1 6072000

Email: [email protected]

http://www.coford.ie

9 781902 696669

ISBN 978-1-902696-66-9