herbicide resistance –a global issue: economic impact and ......de witte, 2015 economic estimation...

DatumSeite 1 Sugarcane production in Brazil

Balieiro, 2015

Herbicide Resistance – a global issue:Economic impact and farmer´s reactionDr. Thomas de WitteThünen Institute of Farm Economics

November 8th 2015Agritechnica, Hannover

Herbicide Resistance – a global issuede Witte, 2015

Agenda

1. What is agri benchmark?

2. Global Development of Herbicide Resistance

3. Insights into the hot spot regions• UK• Australia• Iowa• Brazil

4. Conclusion


Who we are and what we do

1. agri benchmark is a global, non-profit network of agricultural economists, advisors and producers.

2. We use internationally standardized methods to analyze typical farms, their production systems and their profitability.

3. We combine our farm-level knowledge with our expertise in international commodity markets and value chains.

4. Thereby we are want to provide scientifically consistent and soundly based answers on strategic issues in arable farming.


Why do we do this?

1. Understanding growers needs and constraints is the base to improve products and services.

2. Understanding trends in global crop production allows you to adjust strategies.

3. Understanding agronomical and economic drivers of current production systems is the basis for innovations.

4. Understanding strengths and weaknesses of production systems is needed for right decisions.


Present in all major countries and crops

Crop coverage :CornSoybeansWheatSugar beetRiceRapeseedOatsRye(Malting) barleySunflowerSorghumCottonPeasBeansPalm oilSugar cane

Countries participating in agri benchmark Cash Crop

Countries to come online 2014/15

Priorities for new partnerships


Major clients and research partners


Agenda




4. Summary


Count of Confirmed Resistant Biotypes (2008)

Sources:Wrucke 2014, Heap 2008

Herbicide resistance is a global problem…


Count of Confirmed Resistant Biotypes (2012)

… and it`s growing

Sources:Wrucke 2014, Heap 2008


Decreasing number of patents

• increasing regulatory risk• longer development cycles • increasing development cost

Source: Bayer Crop Science


Agenda




4. Summary


What we did

• Asked our partner to give an overview on the development of herbicide resistance in their countries

• Asked them to create future scenarios

• Estimated the future economic impact by calculation the average return to land (ground rent) for the scenarios on our typical farms


Illustration of the Scenarios

• Base scenario:Represents the status quo

• Scenario A:Increasing herbicide resistance which can be solved with more or other but more expensive herbicides or GM-seeds.

• Scenario B:Available herbicides are not effective enough anymore, therefore smaller adaptations in the rotation or tillage strategy becomes necessary.

• Scenario C:The issue becomes really heavy which makes significant changes in management strategies (rotation, tillage…) necessary.


Insights from the UK

Ben Lang University of Cambridge Department of Land Economy

Cambridge, United Kingdomwww.landecon.cam.ac.uk


Main Problem Weed

• Annual Weed

• Emergence August– October

• favors moist soils with relativelyhigh clay content

• Some infestations >1,000 heads/m²

• 80 to 150 seeds per seed head

• Resistance to ACCase- and ALS- and Photosynthesis-inhibitors (HRAC Groups A,B,C)

Black grassAlopecurus myosuroides


UK Blackgrass incidence

• On more than 16,000 farms• Especially on wet soils with high clay content

UK440SUFF

Rainfall: 590 mm400 ha arable land

Wheat: 8.5 t/haRapeseed: 3.45 t/haBeans: 3.4 t/ha


Main resistance drivers in the UK

• Increased winter cropping

• Shorter rotations due to economic pressure

• Earlier wheat drilling

• Adoption of minimal cultivation methods

• Reduced number of approved herbicides

• Recent years have brought wet weather and a greater blackgrass problem, but greater awareness of the problem.


Management Options: Results from field trials

Number of experiments

Mean reductionof seed reservoir

1 Ploughing 25 69%

2 Delayed autumn drilling 19 31%

3 Higher seed rates 16 26%

4 Competitive cultivars 5 22%

5 Spring cropping 5 88%

6 Fallow/grass lays 70-80% per year

7 Combination of 1,2,3&4 potential 99%


Calculated Scenarios for the 440 SUFF farm

Description

Base Current black grass situation- stubble Gly,- Premerge (Avadex)- Mixture of pendimehtadin, flufenacet, diflufenican- Atlantis in the spring

Scenario a 5% lower wheat yield25% spring barley (5,8 t/ha)+ 5% herbicide costs

Scenario b 5% lower wheat yield25% spring barley12% sheep+ 5% herbicide costs


Economic Estimation

• Introduction of summer crops reduction of 20%

• If pasture becomes necessary reduction up to 35%

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

050

100150200250300350400

current blackgrassconditions

25% spring barley+5% herbicide costs

25% spring barley10% Sheep

+5% herbicide costs

€/ha

return to land current land rents rel. decrease of return to land


Insights from Western Australia

Ashley HerbertAgrarian ManagementConsultant

Perth, Western [email protected]


Main Problem Weeds in Western Australia

• extreme high number of seeds• Very competitive• Resistance to MoA Groups

A, B, C,D,K1• Also Glyphosate resistance (G)

Wild radishRaphanus raphanistrum Annual Ryegrass

Lolium rigidum

• Broadleef weed• Multiple germinations per season• Resistance to MoA Groups

B, C, F, I• First Glyphosate resistance

occurred (G)


Distribution of herbicide resistance in Australia

AU4000WB

Low rainfall - 320mm3,500ha arable land80% crop, 20% pasture

Wheat 1.8t/haBarley 1.9 t/haCanola 0.8t/ha


Main resistance drivers in Western Australia

Major change to the farming system in the mid 90’s :

1. Significant reduction of sheep profitability

2. Cropping technology revolution:

• Introduction of selective pre & post emergent herbicides

• Minimum tillage

• Increased capacity of cropping machinery

Which lead to:

• An increase in cropping intensity

• Rapid adoption & dependence on selective herbicides

• Widespread use of below label application rates


Management Options : Harvest Seed Weed Control

Windrow Burning Chaff Cart

Glenvar Bale Direct System Harrington Seed Destructor


Effectiveness of HWSC


Calculated Scenarios for the 4000 WB farm

Description

Base Knock down: 1.5l Gly + 1l Sprayseed + 118g Sakura Early post em: 0.5 l Velocity + 0.5 l MCPALate post em: 0,8l Ester 0.8 + 0.3 l Jaguar

Scenario a - Higher chemical use (+15 €/ha)- RR canola (+40 €/ha)

Scenario b - Higher chemical use (+15 €/ha)- RR canola (+40 €/ha)- Including HSWC - Increased pasture spraying (+10 €/ha)

Scenario c - Higher chemical use (+15 €/ha)- Including HSWC- Rapeseed dropped from the rotation- 33% arable land as pasture


Economic Estimation

• Reduction in return to land of 20-30% seems as a realistic scenario

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

0102030405060708090

base scenario additional herbicidesGMO rapeseed

additional herbicidesGMO rapeseed

chaff cart

additional herbicideschaff cart

no rapeseed33% pasture

€/ha

return to land current land rents rel. chage of return to land


Insights from Iowa

Kelvin LeiboldIowa State University Extension Area Farm Mgt. Phone 641-648-4850E-mail [email protected]


Main Problem Weeds in Iowa

HorseweedConyza canadensis

Waterhemparanthus tuberculatus

• Broadleef weed• Seed remain up to 3

years in the soil• Resistance to ALS-

inhibitors and Glyphosate

Giant RagweedAmbrosia trifida

• Up to 5,000 seeds per plant

• 1 plant/m² can reduce corn yields by >10%

• Resistance to ALS-inhibitors and Glyphosate

• a winter or summer annual life cycle

• Less competitive • Resistance to ALS-

inhibitors and Glyphosate


Distribution of Glyphosate resistance in the USUS700IA

Rainfall: 890 mm730 ha arable landSoybean-corn rotation

soybeans: 3.3 t/hacorn: 10.9 t/ha


Main resistance drivers in the Midwest

• Sole reliance on glyphosate by many producers is believed to be the primary factor – corn, cotton, soybeans

• Reduced number of herbicides used

• Less deep tillage leaving more seeds at the surface

• Move to no-till soybeans (45% vs. 25% in corn)

• Less crop rotation

• Eliminated row crop cultivation

• Earlier planting dates

• Reduced rates or combination „half rates“


Management Options

Option Drawbacks Adoption-rate

MOA mixtures and rotation

Lack of new available MOA high

Adjusted herbicide rates

Higher rates higher target side selectionLower rates higher non target side selection

high

Primary tillage Increased soil erosion, time, costs medium

New HR-traits Lack of diversity, high selection pressure low

Cover crops Inconsistent effect on HR-weeds, lack of knowledge, increased water consumption?

low

Crop rotations Low economic performance of other crops, Iowa crops to similar to increase diversity

low

Robots Still in development stage NA


Description of the scenarios

Herbicidestrategy

Herbicidecosts

Spraytrips

Operatingcosts

Base 2 post emerge glyphosate

corn: 50 €/hasoybeans: 45 €/ha

2 corn: 400 €/hasoybeans: 250 €/ha

Scenario a + residual herbicide with first spray

corn: + 15 €/hasoybeans: +10 €/ha

2

Scenario b + residual + pre emerge herbicide

corn: +20 €/hasoybeans: +15 €/ha

3 + 13 €/ha

Scenario c +residual +pre emerge+row crop tillage

corn: +20 €/hasoybeans: +15 €/ha

3 + 40 €/ha


Economic Estimation

• Glyphosate resistance is an increasing issue but still good to handle

• More complex management strategies might cause up 10% higher costs

-55 €/ha

0%

10%

20%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

base: gly +residual +residual+ pre emerge

+residual+ pre emerge

+tillage

€/ha

return to land current land rents rel. change on return to land


Insights from Brazil (Parana)

Edmar Udo KleinFazenda Esperanza

Guarapuava, Parana


Main glyphosate resistant weeds

Conyza sumatrensisWhite horseweed

• Annual Weed• Emergence July – September• Light seed (easily widespread)• Up to 200.000 seeds per plant• Some biotypes also resistant to

ALS

• Perennial Weed• Rhizoms• Grows all over the year• Drought resistant• Develops in offseason• Best controlled before formation of

rhizoms

Digitaria insularis (Sourgrass)


Regional Spread of Conyza spp. and D. insularis

Conyza Digitaria insularisBR195PRRainfall: 1,900 mm

160 ha arable land• 80% soybeans : 3.05 t/ha• 20% corn: 9.4 t/ta

• 80% corn: 5.3 t/ha• 20% winter wheat: 2.5 t/ha


Main resistance drivers in Parana

• Limited Crop rotation: Soybeans as main Crop

• Soybeans: >90% Roundup Ready

• No-till System -> highly herbicide dependent to manage weeds

• Massive usage of glyphosate -> high selective pressure

• Some carelessness


Management Options

Current practices:• Higher spraying rates• Association of Herbicides: tank mixtures (!!)• Sequential spraying of Herbicides

In Discussion:• Interseason management 30-40 days after soybeans

• Prevent weed development/ seed spreading• Intercrop weed control• Systemic herbicides / Residual herbicides

• Brachiaria as a cover crop after corn• Increase tillage• Hope to chemical solutions

• GM-traits: Liberty Link; DOW Enlist: Glyp. + 2,4-D + AG• Herbicides: Saflufenafil (HRAC Group E)• Older products: Extension of register


Description of the scenarios

Scenario Herbicidestrategy

Herbicidecosts

Operatingcosts

Base Gly + 2,4-D fob contact herbicide soybeans:31 €/ha

soybeans: 285 €/ha

a + graminicide+ preemergent residual

+87 €/ha

b + intercrop management: Gly + 2,4-D + preemergent residual + graminicide+ preemergent residual

+115 €/ha + 5 €/ha

c Deep tillage+ disk harrow+ graminicide

+90 €/ha + 80 €/ha


Economic estimation

• A decrease in return to land of 20-30% seems as an realistic scenario

• Tillage was seen as an extreme scenario!

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

100

200

300

400

500

base: Gly+2,4-Dfb contact

+ graminicide+ preemergence

+ graminicide+ preemergence

+intercrop

tillage+chem.

regrowth cont.

€/ha

return to land current land rent rel. decrease of return to land


Conclusion

• Herbicide is a severe issue and not limited to singular events

• Strong increase in RR-systems; but still relatively easy to handle• Pre emergence residual and selective herbicides available• High cost increase in BR (+20-30 %) vs. moderate increase in the

Midwest (5%)• Tillage is always seen as the last solution

• More complex and expensive in wheat• Less options for alternative herbicides• Decrease in return to land of 20-30%• Adopted rotations decrease in return to land up to 30% (UK)

and 50 % (AUS)• Plant protection strategies will become more complex


Thünen Institute of Farm EconomicsBundesallee 50, 38116 BraunschweigGermany

phone +49 - 531-596-5122e-mail [email protected] www.agribenchmark.org

www.ti.bund.de

Dr. Thomas de Witte

Thank you for your interest in agri benchmark.


Higher costs and increased registration risk

• increasing regulatory risk• Increasing development cost• Decreasing number of active substances


0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

0100200300400500600700800

past base a b base a b c base a b c base a b c

UK AUS Midwest Brazil

rapeseed wheat soybeans corn

USD/

ha

return to land current land rents

• Just moderate economic implications in the Midwest if tools work• BR lost in return to land > 20% very likely• In wheat dominated systems 20 to 40% reduction of return to land


Conclusions

• Herbicide is a severe issue and not limited to singular events

• Strong increase in GR-systems; but still relatively easy to handle• Pre emergence residual and selective herbicides available• High cost increase in BR vs. moderate increase in the Midwest• Options for combinations with tillage

• More complex and expensive in wheat• Less options for alternative herbicides• adopted rotations decrease in return to land of 20-30 %

• Big differences between single farms depending on management practices


Conclusions

• UK

• As our illustration shows, some farmers are making major changes to secure future profitable wheat production


Conclusions for Western Australia

1. Resistance is inevitable when there is dependence on selective herbicides.

1. Below label rates is a false economy

2. Weed control becomes more expensive and complex.

3. Maintaining a low weed seed bank is essential to prolonging the effectiveness of existing herbicides.

4. Adoption of HWSC methods significantly improves weed control.


Conclusion Iowa

• Herbicide resistance is an increasing issue in the Midwestmore than 50% of the fields have multiple resistance potential risk to 30% yield losses (> 500 $/ha) BUT: good options to minimize it

• Much more awareness to the issue since 2010 increased research and training http://takeactiononweeds.com/

• Back to more complex management systems spraying and tillage

• Additional costs might reduce the return to land up to 70 USD/ha

• New HR-traits (liberty link, 2,4-D) might result into old behavior


Agenda


2. Herbicide resistance as a global issue

3. Introduction to the Survey

4. Results fromUKAustraliaIowaBrazil

5. Summary


Summary

I. agri benchmark has proved to be a suitable platform to analyze production systems and costs for sugarcane worldwide

II. The major sugar exporting countries are already represented in our database – aiming to include others like India, Columbia, etc.

III. These are only raw material costs – IMPORTANT to include industrial costs (i.e. major difference in factory utilization, energy balance, etc.)

IV. agri benchmark data can also be used to analyze how policies, market changes and gov. programs might affect farm level competiveness and triggers changes in the world markets.


Economic implications on typical farm

Base scenario:

• Glyphosate + 2,4-D followed by contact herbicide

Scenario A:


• + graminicide + preemergent residual

Scenario B:

• + intercrop management: Glyphosate + 2,4-D + residual preemergent


• graminicide + preemergent residual

Scenario c:

• Deep tillage+ disk harrow

• Gliphosate + 2,4-D + graminicide followed by contact

• Tillage only if strictly necessary!


UK: Case study farm: grassweed herbicide costs


UK: Case study farm: Cropping


Herbicide market 2011 per crop and mode of action


Knockdown Early post em Late post em Cost ($/ha)

1995 Gly 0.8 + Logran 35g MCPA 0.5 L+Logran 5g + Ally 5g $24 - $30

2000 - 03 Gly 1.2 - 1.5L + Logran 35g MCPA 0.5L + Logran 5g + Ally 5g Ester 400mL $37 - $41+ Trifluralin 1.0 - 1.2L

2005 - 08 Gly 1.2 - 1.5L + Trifluralin 1.5 - 1.8L MCPA 0.5 L + Jaguar 0.3L Ester 0.6L + Logran 10g $40 - $45

2013 - 15 Gly 1.2 - 1.5L Velocity 0.5L + MCPA 0.5L Ester 0.8L + Jaguar 300mL $90Sprayseed 1.0L + Sakura 118g


Current practices and coming strategies

Higher spraying rates

Association of Herbicides: tank mixtures (!!)

Sequential spraying of Herbicides

Season Pre planting Post emergence 1

Post emergence 2

Total Glyphosate

2011/12 2,2 l Glyp. 2 l Glyp. 1,2 l Glyp. 5,4 l

2012/13 3 l Glyp. + 1 l 2,4-D 2 l Glyp. 5 l

2013/143 l Glyp.+ 1 l 2,4-Dfb 2 l Paraquat

2 l Glyp. 2 l Glyp. 7 l

Future ?? ?? ?? ??

Source: adopted Cepea, 2014

herbicide resistance –a global issue: economic impact and ......de witte, 2015 economic estimation...

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