herd immunity, anyone?

a division of FirstRand Bank Limited, is an Authorised Financial Services and Credit Provider NCRCP20.

Herd immunity, anyone?Macro perspectives from RMBPresented by Daniel Kavishe

a division of FirstRand Bank Limited, is an Authorised Financial Services and Credit Provider NCRCP20.

Core global and Africa themes

Source: RMB Markets

Fiscal and Monetary stimulus

Commodity rebound

Trade deals and geopolitical

tensions

Climate change and rise of ESG

Vaccines and income equality

Volatile markets and exchange

rate implications

Debt stability

Growth To improve over the next few years as countries rebound from pre-pandemic levels

Inflation To lift slightly over the horizon

Fiscal and Monetary policy

To remain supportive of growth

USD levels To weaken this year

Commodity prices To maintain their upward trajectory

Strictly Private and Confidential |

Regional sectors of interest that “everyone” is focusing on

Source: RMB Markets, Bloomberg

Agriculture

Livestock farming

Crop farming

Energy

Gas

Hydropower

Solar

Oil

Logistics

Airport

Roads

Railway

Mining

Copper

Gold

PGMs


What are investors looking for?

Source: WTIIA 2020

Food and beverages

48%

Agriculture

48%

Information and

technology

41%

Utilities

23%

Construction

23%

Pharmaceuticals

23%


Vaccination supply disruptions to impact economic recovery process

Country Population size for HIT DDT to reach HIT in next 12 months

Average VR relative to DDT (April)

Average VR relative to DDT (Latest

Kenya** 35,568,822 97,449 105% 5%

Ghana** 20,535,711 56,262 81% 4%

Botswana 1,553,330 4,256 48% 213%

Mozambique 20,771,419 56,908 19% 19%

Côte d’Ivoire** 17,486,029 47,907 11% 45%

Zambia** 12,217,320 33,472 15% 13%

Namibia 1,675,616 4,591 56% 39%

Nigeria 136,651,288 374,387 3% 4%

Egypt 67,524,885 185,000 11% 11%

South Africa 37,293,956 102,175 8% 184%

Source: RMB Markets, Worldometers, WHO


Covid-19 update

Vaccinations still quite slow

Population to vaccinate


,0,300,600,900

1,2001,500

Nige

ria

Egyp

t

Ghan

a

Keny

a

Moz

ambi

que

Côte

d’Iv

oire

Botsw

ana

Zam

bia

Nam

ibia

,000

Country Deaths/Infections (%) Recoveries/infections (%)Vaccinations doses

administeredVaccinations start

weekMain vaccine brand (year to

date)

Botswana 1.51 95.39 49 882.00 26-Mar SivovacMozambique 1.17 96.16 141 640.00 08-Mar Sinopharm

Namibia 1.32 95.03 18 837.00 20-Mar Sinopharm Zambia 1.37 98.22 45 750.00 16-Apr Covishield (AstraZeneca)

Côte d'Ivoire 0.63 98.96 163 176.00 26-Feb Covishield (AstraZeneca)Kenya 1.74 67.88 853 081.00 02-Mar Covishield (AstraZeneca)Ghana 0.84 97.45 849 527.00 24-Feb Covishield (AstraZeneca)Nigeria 1.25 94.04 1 229 773.00 02-Mar Covishield (AstraZeneca)Egypt 5.86 74.78 1 066 828.00 Jan-21 Sinopharm

South Africa 3.44 95.18 329 089.00 17-Feb Johnson & Johnson

Our recovery to take a whileGrowth


-10

-6

-2

2

6

10

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Egypt Ghana Côte d'Ivoire Kenya MozambiqueNigeria Zambia Namibia Botswana

%


Inflation – not the type of problem we wanted

Supply side pressures are mounting


Food

Oil

Currency

Covid-19 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

%


Another key theme - fiscal conditions matter

Source: RMB Markets

0

31

62

93

124

155B

otsw

ana

Côt

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Ivoi

re

Egy

pt

Gha

na

Ken

ya

Moz

ambi

que

Nam

ibia

Nig

eria

Zam

bia

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%


Currency space – fiscal premium will be key for volatility

RMB Markets, Bloomberg

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

2018 2019 2020 2021

USD/GHS USD/KES USD/MZN USD/NGNUSD/ZAR USD/ZMW USD/XOF USD/EGP


So who’s ready to benefit from the trade?

Source: IHS Markit research

o Adhering to AfCFTA protocols indicatoro Freedom of movement indicatoro Part of monetary/customs uniono IHS Markit regulatory burden indicatoro Exports to the rest of SSAo Transport indicatoro Number of port calls

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

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IHS index


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herd immunity, anyone?

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