Hernando County

EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER

Alert Form

PUBLIC INFORMATION CENTER (PIC): (352) 754-4083 or (352) 754-4111 (Recorded)

Hernando County Sheriff Office - Emergency Management National Weather Service - Brooksville

Florida Division of Emergency Management FEMA

MyFlorida.com American Red Cross

1

EVENT Weather Alert

DATE 27 September 2015

TIME 1:00 PM

REPORT # 1

SITUATION:

An area of low pressure over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and an upper-level low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico are producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Residents should continue to monitor the situation early this week. At the current time the main impacts across our area would be an increase in showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall possible, tides slightly higher than predicted, and an increased Rip Current risk.

There are no Warnings, Watches or Advisories currently issued for our area.

Rainfall amounts of generally 1 to 2 inches are expected at this time through Wednesday morning with some locally higher amounts possible.

Heaviest rainfall is currently forecast to remain out in the Gulf of Mexico. However, if it looks like the system will be shifting to the east some; a Flood Watch may be needed.

Thanks to the full moon, tides are already running about 1 foot above normal and if this system does develop some tides could end up being up to 2 feet above normal during Monday and Tuesday.

As the system moves north Monday and Tuesday winds will turn more south and then southwest bringing an increasing risk of Rip Currents to area beaches.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS

Residents living in low lying, flood prone areas should take necessary precautions to protect life and property.

As the current weather pattern continues, residents are urged to actively monitor their favorite news station or the National Weather Service at (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/) for the latest weather update.

Residents living near the river can monitor the river levels at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/ (on this website, hover your mouse over the Trilby and Croom gauges in Hernando County to see the current river level as shown in the graphs above).

Sand and sandbags are available for purchase at local home improvement stores.

Remember, turn around, don’t drown. Do not drive through flooded areas after a storm event.

Keep children and pets safely away from flood waters as they may be contaminated.

Post flood safety information is posted on the Emergency Management site: http://www.hernandosheriff.org/em/

Report damages and/or flooded roadways promptly to the Emergency Operations Center at 352-754-4083. This number is answered 24 hours a day.

EOC LEVEL OF ACTIVATION

1/ FULL

2/ PARTIAL

X 3/ MONITORING

Page 1 of 4

High Impact Weather Briefing for 11 AM EDT September 27, 2015

Synopsis/Overview:

An area of low pressure over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and an upper-level low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico are producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico..

The National Hurricane Center has given this system a 30 percent chance of developing into a Tropical Cyclone over the next few days as it move north northeast across the Gulf of Mexico.

The official National Hurricane Center forecast, including the 5 day “cone of uncertainty” can be found below in the Graphics Section of this briefing.

Interests across West Central and Southwest Florida should continue to monitor the situation early this week.

At the current time the main impacts across our area would be an increase in showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall possible, tides slightly higher than predicted, and an increased Rip Current risk.

Warnings/Watches/Advisories:

None for West Central & Southwest Florida at this time.

Impact 1: Rainfall

Rainfall amounts of generally 1 to 2 inches are expected at this time through

Wednesday morning with some locally higher amounts possible.

Heaviest rainfall is currently forecast to remain out in the Gulf of Mexico. However, if it

looks like the system will be shifting to the east some a Flood Watch may be needed.

NWS Tampa Bay Area Briefing for September 27, 2015

Page 2 of 4

Impact 2: Tides

Thanks to the full moon, tides are already running about 1 foot above normal and if this

system does develop some tides could end up being up to 2 feet above normal during

Monday and Tuesday.

Cedar Key Tides

Date Day Time Tide

o 09/27 Sun 02:00 PM High

o 09/27 Sun 08:25 PM Low

o 09/28 Mon 02:19 AM High

o 09/28 Mon 08:42 AM Low

o 09/28 Mon 02:49 PM High

o 09/28 Mon 09:04 PM Low

o 09/29 Tue 02:53 AM High

o 09/29 Tue 09:27 AM Low

o 09/29 Tue 03:38 PM High

o 09/29 Tue 09:43 PM Low

Clearwater Beach Tides

Date Day Time Tide

o 09/27 Sun 11:45 AM High

o 09/27 Sun 06:00 PM Low

o 09/27 Sun 11:59 PM High

o 09/28 Mon 06:15 AM Low

o 09/28 Mon 12:35 PM High

o 09/28 Mon 06:37 PM Low

o 09/29 Tue 12:29 AM High

o 09/29 Tue 07:01 AM Low

o 09/29 Tue 01:24 PM High

o 09/29 Tue 07:13 PM Low

Venice Tides

Date Day Time Tide

o 09/27 Sun 11:26 AM High

o 09/27 Sun 05:50 PM Low

o 09/27 Sun 11:46 PM High

o 09/28 Mon 05:58 AM Low

o 09/28 Mon 12:16 PM High

o 09/28 Mon 06:24 PM Low

o 09/29 Tue 12:19 AM High

o 09/29 Tue 06:49 AM Low

o 09/29 Tue 01:06 PM High

o 09/29 Tue 06:55 PM Low

North Captiva Beach Tides

Date Day Time Tide

o 09/27 Sun 12:46 PM High

o 09/27 Sun 07:05 PM Low

o 09/28 Mon 01:01 AM High

o 09/28 Mon 07:25 AM Low

o 09/28 Mon 01:42 PM High

o 09/28 Mon 07:44 PM Low

o 09/29 Tue 01:38 AM High

o 09/29 Tue 08:18 AM Low

o 09/29 Tue 02:38 PM High

o 09/29 Tue 08:21 PM Low

Impact 3: Rip Currents

As the system moves north Monday and Tuesday winds will turn more south and then

southwest bringing an increasing risk of Rip Currents to area beaches.

NWS Tampa Bay Area Briefing for September 27, 2015

Page 3 of 4

Graphics:

NWS Tampa Bay Area Briefing for September 27, 2015

Page 4 of 4

Rainfall Forecast for 8 AM EDT Today through 8 AM EDT Wed Sept 30, 2015: