hew project purpose, trajectory and results · causal loop diagrams theme of causal loop direction...

Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)

4th stakeholder workshop

HEW PROJECT PURPOSE, TRAJECTORY AND RESULTS

Nici Zimmermann



Team members unable to be here today

RobertMuetzelfeldt

ShaneCarnohan

AlexMacmillan



Summary of HEW

Aims

• Addressing dynamic complexity

• Getting to futures we want

Journey

• A process of transparent and collaborative learning together

• Bring together different kinds of knowledge

• Set of causal diagrams for learning together about the system

• Strategic pieces of simulation to support integrated policy-making– Green Deal

– Heating, ventilation and rebound

• Exploring methods of change



HEW themes and policy criteria

carbonemissions from

housing

fuel poverty

housingaffordability

housingadaptation to

climate change

physicalwellbeing /

health

social andincome equity

policycoherence

communitysocial

connection

mental andemotionalwellbeing



Causal loop diagrams

theme of causal loop direction

carbon emissions from housing stock (iffy) weak impact

housing affordability

(regional rental affordability)

housing affordability

(home ownership)

physical and mental wellbeing

(household crowding )

community social connection8/10 3.5/10



The project‘s trajectory

Pilot projectParticipatory

mapping

Quantitativesystem

dynamicsmodelling

DECCEMSDstudent

Funded andsubmittedprojects

Colleagues‘work

3 PhDs



Papers directly related to the HEW project from 2016

Accepted submissions: International System Dynamics Conference 20161. System dynamics model of heating, ventilation and rebound2. Fragmentation in housing construction and retrofit3. Group model building and simulation platforms in the built environment4. What are system dynamics insights?5. PhD colloquium: Socio-economic structure of the London housing crisis6. PhD colloquium: Homeowners' energy efficiency renovation decisions

Journal• Submission: Using textual data in system dynamics model conceptualization• Publication: Integrated decision-making about housing, energy and wellbeing

Working paper• Framework and method for housing policy



UCL System Dynamics Group

Mentoring on work in progress, 13.00–14.00 every other Monday

11/03 Nici Zimmermann Group initiation meeting

21/03 Katya Bobrova Homeowners‘ decision-making

11/04 Shane Carnohan Interactive simulation environment

25/04 Kalliopi Fouseki Heritage retrofit

09/05 Bernard Tembo Investment decisions in the copper industry

23/05 Lucy Campbell Vicious cycles in NHS vending machine services

06/06 Daniela Flor Water efficiency in households

20/06 Kaveh Dianati UK/London housing crisis



DECC Demand Reduction Obligation (DRO)

• Supported DECC in investigating the DRO idea

• Small participatory system dynamics workshop

• DECC’s decision: not to pursue

• Work revealed

– Complexity of the issue

– Difficulties in setting the target

– Risks to suppliers

– Possibility to increase bills



Interest in similar work?

• Greater London Authority (GLA)

• CO Impact Group



• Moisture central to IAQ and unintended consequences in the HEWproject

• CBES funded Neil May to establish centre

• UK Centre led by UCL, BRE, Heriot Watt, LSHTM

• Advisory working groups from industry, government, academics, publicinterest bodies

• Participatory organisation based on systems thinking

• Practical aims and engagement: improving moisture safety of UK builtenvironment



Five themes of UKCMB

Use

HealthBuildings

Context

Process

www.ukcmb.org



Housing Crisis Project

• CBES funded research paper on the context of the housing crisis and itseffect on energy and well being: Miriam Morris and Neil May

• Complexity of the system not fully understood in public discourse (oracademia)

• Impossibility of “solving”the crisis within this system

• Multiple and severeunintended consequencesof Business As Usual



Housing Crisis Project

• Seminar Sept 2015 with IEDE, EI and School of Planning

• UCL Grand Challenges adopts work

• London public seminar April 2016

• Paper: Prof N Gallent, D Durrant, N May

• Kaveh Dianati PhD: SD model of housing crisis

• Seminar programme with Institute for Global Prosperity using“regeneration” of East London to explore housing system, effects,paradigms and options for change

• Centre of Housing and Change?



Post workshop 3



Workshop 3

• Issue elicitation



Since workshop 3

• Issue elicitation



Fragmentation

Since workshop 3



Our process

Community Industry Policy

Model Refinement

Web-enabledInteractive Simulation

Environment

Web-enabledInteractive Simulation

Environment

Interviews with 18 stakeholders onissues of fragmentation and integration

3 groupmodel

buildingworkshops



Confirmatory and disconfirmatory dots problem space



More structure elicitation



Results of the modelling process

• The added value of modelling for understanding

useful and efficient to understand the problem and gain insights

neutral about the clarity of the causes of the problem

• Consensus building

the integration of diverse opinions of the participants (especially WS 3)

reaching a consensus

• Take-home

supporting the conclusions of the meetings in their organizations

applicability of this approach in their organizations



Group model building vs. normal meetings

• Insight

more insight

Positive on quicker insight in WS 1, neutral in WS 2, full agreement except 1

participant in WS 3

• Communication and shared vision

better communication

better shared vision

but not necessarily quicker

• Commitment

neutral about both more and quicker commitment



Modelling

• Larger model

– Tool for triggering discussion

– Tool for testing our thinking

– This tool is not supposed to make predictions

– Tool for scenario analyses

• Condensed model for our Web-enabled Interactive SimulationEnvironment (WISE)

– Tool for triggering discussion

– Tool for testing our thinking

– This tool is not supposed to make predictions

– Easier to understand tool



Modelling

• Larger model for analyses

• Small model for interactive learning environment

Investment in

Energy Efficiency

Effect of EEInvestment

Average EnergyEfficiency

Performance

Increase in EEperformance by

rework

EE performancechange by

compromiseDesired Energy

EfficiencyPerformance

Capabilities ofthe Indus tryIncrease in

Capabilities

Effect of Capabilitieson Performance

IndustryIntended EEPerformance

Gap betweenthe desired and

actual EEperformance

Investment in

Monitoring

Wellbeing ofResidents

CommunityConnection

CommunalSpaces

Net change incommunal

spaces

Net change incommunityconnection

Net change inwellbeing

Use ofcommunal

spaces

Availablefunding forcommunal

spaces

Communalspaces

funding gap

Annual cost ofmaintainingcommunal

spaces

Investment inCommunal

Spaces

Indicated communityconnection

Compliance ofthe industry with

the residentsHEW

Performance

Effect of communalspaces oncommunityconnection

Effect of HEWperforma nce on

community connection

IndicatedWellbeing

Effect of communalspaces on wellbeing Effect of community

connection onwellbeing

Effect of HEWperformance on

wellbeing

Average HEWPerformance of

Buildings

Increase in HEWPerformance by

rework

EE Related HEWPerformance

Industry IntendedHEW Performance

ResidentsDesired HEWPerformance

HEW performancechange by

compromise

Gap between thedesired and actualHEW performance

Monitoring effect

Ratio of communalspaces to the normal

+

-

CommunalSpaces Step

Function

Energy EfficiencyStep Function

Monitoring StepFunction

Data Wellbeing

Mean SAP Score

Ratio of VerySatisfied with Their

Accommodation

Indicative changein communal

spaces

Maximumchange incommunal

spacesMaximum HEW

Performance

Houses Des ignedand Applied for

Approval

Houses Certified inDesign

HousesConstructed and

Applied for acertificate

HousesConstructed and

CertifiedNew Houses

Designapproval

rate

Constructionstart rate

Certificationrate

Commissioningrate

Fraction complyingwith regulations

Design ApprovalApplication Rate

Planningpermission delay

Houses Refusedto be Certified

RefusalrateRework

rate

Fraction assumed tocomply with regulations

Rework fraction

Commissioningdelay

Houses underConstruction Construction

finish rate

Constructionfinish time

DesignRejection rate

DataConstruction

Start

Initial value ofhouses certified

Rate ofdiscardedprojects

Fraction ofprojects started

Totalpipeline

Datacommissioning

Data approvalData totalpipeline

<Des igned HEWPerformance ofNew Buildings>

Initial NewHouses

<HEW Performance inHousing Policy>

<Average time todesign>

Adjustment forNew Houses

Adjustment time fornew houses

DesiredAcquisition Rate

<Demolishingrate>

Desired Pipeline

Adjustment forPipeline

Adjustment timefor pipeline

Indicated DesignApplications

Initial HousesConst and Cert

Initial H Constand Applied

Initial H underConst

HousingDemandBacklog

Annual Housing

Demand

Delivery

Investment inmonitoring

<Industry compliance withbuilding regulations>

New-builtcertification fraction

Weight of actualcompliance incertificationReference

investment inmonitoring

Ratio of monitoringinvestment to the

reference

Certificationdelay

Designed HEWPerformance ofNew Buildings

Change in thedesigned HEWperformance

Average timeto design

Required DesignPerformance

Initial DesignPerformance

Difference betweenRequired and Previous

Performance

Willingness tochange multiplier

for HEWDesigners Assumed

Performance

+

DesignersPerceived

Performance

Designercommunication

multiplier

DesignersFeedback Delay

As built HEWPerformance ofNew Buildings

Post occupancyHEW

Performance

Increase in HEWperformance by

rework

Change in HEWPerformance by

compromise

Normal DesignTime

Effect of communityconnection on design

time

Time tocompromise

Intended HEWperformance

Capabilities ofthe Industry

Increase incapabilities

Fractional capabilityincrease per rework

Effect of capabilitieson performance

Maximumcapabilities

Gap between thedesign and built HEW

performance

Gap between the as builtand post occupancy HEW

performance

Postoccupancy

perception rateof HEW

performance

OccupantsPerception Delay

Normal DesignersFeedback Delay

InitialPost-occupancy

Performance

Initial As builtHEW

Performance

Initial Capabilities

<Reworkrate>

Data DecentHomes

<ResidentsDesired

Performance>

Ratio DesignersPerceived to

Assumed Perf

-

-


<CommunityConnection>


+

Data Avg SAP ofNew Buildings

Fractional performanceincrease per rework

<Rework rate>

As built EnergyEfficiency

Performance ofNew Buildings

Post occupancyEE Performance

of New Buildings

Increase in EEperformance by

rework

Change in EEperformance by

compromise

Intended EEperformance

Gap between thedesign and builtEE performance

Gap between the as builtand post occupancy EE

performance

Post occupancyperception rate of

EE performance

<Rework rate>

Initial As built EEPerformance

All the performance measures here refer to the performance tags associated with new buildings,implemented by the industry.

Initial Design EEPerformance

Initial Post occupancyEE Performance

Desired EnergyEfficiency

Performance ofNew Buildings

Designed EnergyEfficiency

Performance

EE Related HEWPerformance ofNew Buildings

Net Change in EEPerformance

EE to HEWmultiplier

Change in HEWdue to EE

Ratio of very satisfiedwith accommodation

Annual carbonemissions from housing

Average SAP rating ofthe housing stock

Total SAP rating ofthe housing stock

Increase in thetotal SAP rating Decrease in the

total SAP rating

Initial Total SAPRating

<Total HousingStock>

<Demolishingrate>

<Commissioningrate>

SAP increase bynew homes

SAP increase byretrofitting

<Retrofittingrate>

Avg SAP of oldhouses

<Initial HousesRetrofitted>

<Initial NewHouses>

<Initial OldHouses>

<New Houses>

<Old houses>

<HousesRetrofitted>

Average annual carbonemission of a new house

Average annual carbonemission of an old house

Average carbonemission per household

Data Avg SAPrating

Data Avg CarbonEmissions

Retrofit performancemultiplier

Housing Supply toDemand

<New Houses>

Total RequiredHousing

<Initial NewHouses>

<As built Energy EfficiencyPerformance of New

Buildings>

Avg Energy EfficiencyPerformance of Retrofitted

Buildings

Houses RetrofittedOld houses

Retrofitting rate

Total HousingStock

<New Houses>

Demolishing rate

Contactrate

Ratio of retrofittedhouses to the total

Fractionretrofitting

Solid walled oldhouses

Initial Old Houses

Initial HousesRetrofitted

Potential Cavity andLoft insulation

DataRetrofitting rate

Constantdemolishing rate

<TIME STEP>

Visibility ofretrofitprojects

<Post occupancyHEW

Performance>

Trust multiplier forretrofitting Normal fraction

retrofitting

Compliance ofindustry with

residents desiredperformance

PerceivedCompliance

ComplianceWoM Delay

+

Normal ContactRate

Subsidizationmultiplier

Investment inenergy efficiency

measures

Reference investmentin energy efficiency

Ratio of investment toreference investment


<ResidentsDesired

Performance>

ResidentsKnowledge of

AvailablePerformance

Industrycompliance with

buildingregulations


<As built HEWPerformance ofNew Buildings>

ResidentsDesired

Performance

Change in ClientsKnowledge

Industry drivenKnowledge Level

LA drivenKnowledge Level

AvailableKnowledge forPerformance

Ratio of LA toIndustry

Knowledge

KnowledgeAcquisition Time

LA CommunicationMultiplier

InitialResidents

Knowledge

ResidentsKnowledge Smooth

Time

<Maximumperformance>

Max of Industry andLA Knowledge

<Post occupancyHEW Performance>

HEW Performance inHousing Policy

Adjustment Rate ofHEW Performance in

Policy

Maximumperformance

Goal adjustmenttime

<Residents DesiredPerformance>

Policymakers perceptionof residents desired

performance

Policymakersperception delay

Initial HEWPerformance inHousing Policy

Competenceof PolicyTeams Competence

increase by learningCompetence decrease

by workforce circulation

Average timespent at a role

-

+

Experientallearning+

+ Average competenceby learning

Average learningtime

InitialCompetence

Discrepancy betweenpolicymakers perception and

HEW perf in policy

Discrepancy between thepolicy makers perception and

residents desired

Effect ofcompetence on

policy adjustment

CommunityConnectionchange in community

connection

Effect of thirdspaces oncommunityconnection

Effect of thirdspaces onwellbeing

Third Spaces

+

Effect of performancegap on wellbeing

Wellbeing of residents

Net change in

wellbeing

Averagehousehold

size Effect ofcrowding onperceivedwellbeing

-

-

third spacesweight

communityconnection

weight

crowding weight

performance gapweight

wellbeingadjustment time

-

Change rate ofthird spaces

Relativeuse of third

spaces

Available funding forthird s paces

- Investment inthird spaces

Annual cost ofmaintaining third

spaces

Unit cost ofmaintaining third

spaces

Third spacesfunding gap

population

<Compliance of industrywith residents desired

performance>

Effect of performancegaps on community

connection

Initialcommunityconnection

Initial wellbeing

Indicatedcommunityconnection

time to adjus tthird spaces

IndicatedWellbeing

<Total Hous ingStock>

Initial third spaces

Ratio of thirdspaces to the

initial

Communityconnection

adjustment time

Referenceinvestment inthird spaces

Effect of communityconnection on

wellbeing



Data sources

• Literature

• Longitudinal data (especially for comparison and initial values)

• 3 group model building workshops



BAU simulation: Comparison to historical dataAverage Energy Efficiency Performance

Data comparison energy efficiency

1

.75

.5

.25

0

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Time (Year)

Pe

r

Average Energy Efficiency Performance : BAU 1 1 1 1 1

Mean SAP Score : BAU 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2



BAU simulation: Comparison to historical dataAverage HEW Performance of Buildings

Data comparison HEW performance

1

.75

.5

.25

0

2 2 2

2 2 2 2 22

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Time (Year)

Pe

r

Average HEW Performance of Buildings : BAU 1 1 1 1 1

Ratio of Very Satisfied with Their Accommodation : BAU 2 2 2



BAU simulation: Comparison to historical dataWellbeing of Residents

Data comparison wellbeing of residents

1

.75

.5

.25

0

2 2 21

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Time (Year)

Dm

nl

Wellbeing of Residents : BAU 1 1 1 1 1 1

Data Wellbeing : BAU 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

hew project purpose, trajectory and results · causal loop diagrams theme of causal loop direction...

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