high-level goals and low-level systems: how can computers help solving complex problems? piek vossen...

High-level goals and low-level systems: how can computers help solving complex problems?

Piek Vossen and Roxane SegersVU University Amsterdam

KYOTO (ICT-211423)Yielding Ontologies for Transition-Based OrganizationFP7: Intelligent Content and Semantics

http://www.kyoto-project.eu/1st Kyoto workshop: Environmental Knowledge Transition and ExchangeFebruary, 2-3, 2009, Artis Amsterdam

1st Kyoto workshop: Environmental Knowledge Transition and Exchange, February, 2-3, 2009, Artis AmsterdamICT-211423

Overview

1. analysis of the user questions

(provided by ECNC and WWF)

a. clear cases

b. unclear cases and possible solutions

2. Concepts and relations

3. Discussion: how to use knowledge discovery to answer complex questions


Analysis of the user questions

▪Total of 330 questions from WWF and ECNC.

▪ Analysis of question type (what, where, who, when, how etc).

▪ Words that express the relation that is asked for


Classification of questions• Finding Definitions, e.g.

– What are the drivers?– What are ecosystem services?

• Pin-Pointing Sources– Where are biodiversity hotspots?– Who is an expert on biodiversity?

• Information Retrieval, e.g.– What is the current status of a specie?– What are the most recent countings of a certain specie?

• Examples (of best practices), e.g.– Best practices of resource management in poor area's?– Are there examples of nature conservation and poverty elivation?– What are good examples of E.S.?

• High level questions, e.g.– What are the key biodiversity indicators in a certain area?– What is the effect of climate change and species diversity?– What is the impact of declining bee populations on agricultural productivity?– Which rare and threatened species/ecosystems are people most dependent on for

economic benefits?


Baseline retrieval results 30 high-level questions,

Result Rank

CONFIRMED

DISAPPROVED

UNDECIDED

Total

0 13 20.31% 27 20.30% 10 15.87% 50 19.23%

1 6 9.38% 9 6.77% 9 14.29% 24 9.23%

2 8 12.50% 13 9.77% 7 11.11% 28 10.77%

3 5 7.81% 6 4.51% 3 4.76% 14 5.38%

4 8 12.50% 6 4.51% 2 3.17% 16 6.15%

5 2 3.13% 7 5.26% 3 4.76% 12 4.62%

6 2 3.13% 6 4.51% 4 6.35% 12 4.62%

7 2 3.13% 2 1.50% 1 1.59% 5 1.92%

8 4 6.25% 3 2.26% 1 1.59% 8 3.08%

9 1 1.56% 5 3.76% 0 0.00% 6 2.31%

-1 13 20.31% 49 36.84% 23 36.51% 85 32.69%

Total 64 24.62% 133 51.15% 63 24.23% 260


Some numbers…

Example of question analysis:

• What is the effect of poverty on biodiversity? causes• How can sustainable financing influence livelihood? causes

What is 41.2%How 23.9% What/Which 16.9%Auxiliary verbs 9.3% Where 3.9%Why 1.2%When 0.6%Who 0.6%


• What is the impact of dogs on wildlife?Canine x Process (spreading disease, hunting?)

Organism x Process (decreasing?)

• What is the effect of hedgerows on air quality?

Artefact x Process

Attribute x Process (Pollution?)

Difficult causal relations (no search results)


What is the effect of hedgerows on air quality?

HEDGEROW AIR QUALITY

wildlife corridor

aerosols

soil erosion air pollution

biodiversity

aerosolsbiodiversity

Association


Decomposition of a high level question

hedgerows air quality

aerosols

dust smog

airborne particles

aerosols

capture,interception

hyponym

role

hyponym


What does it take?

• Extract all events and properties involving hedgerows ► direct relations, causal chains, roles, etc.

• Extract all events and properties involving air quality ► direct relations, causal chains, roles, etc

• Do the same for any synonyms, hyponyms co-hyponyms, or hyperonyms

• Extract dates and locations for events and properties

• Try to intersect and quantify the results


Small preliminary domain model

Are there huge negative effects with regard to eco-networks and alien invasive species?

eco-network Area

core area

buffer area

[area connector]

stepping stone corridor

Culturalhedgerow

canalstonewall

Naturalwatercourses

riverscoastlines

breeding pond

migration corridorcommuting corridordispersal corridor

bird migration corridorterrestrial dispersal corridor


Versions of KYOTO

• KYOTO-1:– extract all countings of species & populations

in regions for dates and periods

• KYOTO-2:– changes in numbers of species and sizes of

populations, temporal relations and causal relations

• KYOTO-3:– to be determined....

high-level goals and low-level systems: how can computers help solving complex problems? piek vossen...

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