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High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean field games Gabriel Turinici with L. Laguzet, G. Legendre, F. Salvarani CEREMADE, Universit´ e Paris Dauphine Institut Universitaire de France JLL Paris VI laboratory seminar, Paris Jan 27 th , 2017 Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 1 / 42

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Page 1: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccinationmean field games

Gabriel Turiniciwith L. Laguzet, G. Legendre, F. Salvarani

CEREMADE, Universite Paris DauphineInstitut Universitaire de France

JLL Paris VI laboratory seminar,Paris Jan 27th, 2017

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 1 / 42

Page 2: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Outline1 Gradient flows

General introductionGradient flows examplesJKO, consistency error and construction of second order schemesNumerical results for VIM and EVIE schemesTheoretical results for the VIM scheme

2 Vaccination (mean field) gamesVaccine scares MFG models

An analytical model: SIR-VIndividual dynamicsIndividual-societal equilibriumFurther models: discount, imperfections, ...

Computing the equilibriumNumerical resultsMFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical resultsHigh order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas by L. Laguzet

3 Perspectives

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 2 / 42

Page 3: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Gradient flows: theory• F : Rd → R = a smooth convex function, x ∈ Rd ; gradient flow from x= a curve (xt)t≥0: x ′t = −∇F (xt) for t > 0, x0 = x .• Polish metric space (X , d), functional F : (X , d)→ R ∪ +∞:non-trivial defintion, huge litterature (cf. books by Ambrosio et al. ,Villani, Santambroggio).

• Euclidian space (under some regularity assumptions):

ddt F (xt) = 〈∇F (xt), x ′t〉 ≥ −

∣∣x ′t ∣∣ · |∇F | (xt) ≥ −12∣∣x ′t ∣∣2 − 1

2 |∇F |2 (xt),

or equivalently ddt F (xt) +

12∣∣x ′t ∣∣2 +

12 |∇F |2 (xt) ≥ 0,

with equality only if x ′t = −∇F (xt).• Conclusion: d

dt F (xt) + 12 |x′t |

2 + 12 |∇F |2 (xt) ≤ 0 a.e. is equivalent with

x ′t = −∇F (xt).

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 3 / 42

Page 4: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Gradient flows: theory• Euclidian space formulation: d

dt F (xt) + 12 |x′t |

2 + 12 |∇F |2 (xt) ≤ 0 a.e.

• the (local metric) slope of F at x :|∇F | (x) = lim sup

z→x[F (x)−F (z)]+

d(x ,z) = max

lim supz→x

F (x)−F (z)d(x ,z) , 0

.

• the metric derivative of x at t: |x ′t | = limh→0d(xt+h,xt )|h| , exists a.e. as

soon as t 7→ xt is absolutely continuous. Moreover |x ′| ∈ L1(0, 1).• EDI ∇-flow (pointwise): d

dt F (xt) + 12 |x′t |

2 + 12 |∇F |2 (xt) ≤ 0 a.e.

• EDI ∇-flow from x : an absolutely continuous curve such that:

∀s ≥ 0, F (xs) +12

∫ s

0

∣∣x ′r ∣∣ dr +12

∫ s

0|∇F |2 (xr ) dr ≤ F (x),

a.e. t > 0, ∀s ≥ t, F (xs) +12

∫ s

t

∣∣x ′r ∣∣ dr +12

∫ s

t|∇F |2 (xr )dr ≤ F (xt).

• EVI form for λ-convex (i.e., when smooth F ′′ ≥ λId ...) functionals:F (xt) + 1

2ddt d2(xt , y) + λ

2 d2(xt , y) ≤ F (y),∀y , a.e. t ≥ 0.

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 4 / 42

Page 5: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Gradient flows examples: heat flow (Fokker-Planck)

X= P2(R) (the set of probability measures on (R,B(R)) with finitesecond-order moment, endowed with the Wasserstein distance W2)Consider for σ ∈ R F : P2(R)→ R ∪ +∞:F (ν) =

∫R V (x)ρ(x) + σ2

2∫R ρ(x) log(ρ(x))dx , if ν dx , ν = ρ(x)dx

F (ν) = +∞, if ν / dx .For smooth V , the gradient flow t 7→ ν(t) ∈ P2(R) of F satisfiesν(t) = ρ(t, ·)dx and:

∂ρ

∂t (t, x) =∂

∂x [V ′(x)ρ(t, x)] +σ2

2∂2ρ

∂x2 (t, x), (1)

i.e., Fokker-Planck of the SDE: dX (t) = −V ′(X (t))dt + σdW (t).

Remark: also a L2 flow (term∫|∇ρ|2)...

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 5 / 42

Page 6: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Gradient flows examples: heat flow (Fokker-Planck)

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

x

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

;0(x

)

initial data ;0(x)

Figure: Initial data for the heat flow (FP) model and its evolution (VIDEO).

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 6 / 42

Page 7: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Gradient flows examples : a 1D Patlak-Keller-Segel model

• the (modified) Patlak–Keller–Segel system (Perthame-Calvez-SharifiTabar 2007, Blanchet-Calvez-Carrillo 2008), is a PDE model fordiffusion-aggregation competition in biological applications (chemotaxis).

• Free energy functional:

G[ρ] =

∫ρ(t, x) log(ρ(t, x)) dx +

χ

π

∫ ∫ρ(t, x)ρ(t, y) log |x − y | dxdy

• the resulting Patlak-Keller-Segel equation:

∂ρ∂t = ∆ρ−∇(χρ∇c), t > O, x ∈ Ω ⊂ Rd (2)

c = − 1dπ log |z | ? ρ (3)

ρ = cell density, c = concentration of chemo-attractant, χ = sensitivityof the cells to the chemo-attractant.

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 7 / 42

Page 8: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Gradient flows examples: 1D Patlak-Keller-Segel model

-4 -2 0 2 4x

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

;E

VIE

(x)

t=0

;EVIE(x)

-5 0 5 10x

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

;E

VIE

(x)

t=0

;EVIE(x)

Figure: Initial data for the PKS model: χ = π (left), χ = 1.9π (right) and its evolution(VIDEO T = 2). Implementation : G. Legendre; ∇-flow JKO PKS code : courtesy A. Blanchet.

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 8 / 42

Page 9: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Gradient flows: the JKO scheme

• Jordan, Kinderlehrer and Otto ’98, (JKO) numerical scheme: time step= τ > 0, x τ0 = x ∈ X , by recurrence x τn+1 = a minimizer of the functional

x 7→ PJKOF (x ; x τn , τ) :=

12τ d2(x τn , x) + F (x). (4)

• If X= Hilbert, F = smooth, JKO = implicit Euler (IE) scheme, i.e.,xτ

n+1−xτn

τ = −∇F (x τn+1).• JKO scheme was initially used theoretically to prove the existence of agradient flow

• JKO scheme only (!!) was then used numerically to compute thegradient flow (J.K.O ’99, Blanchet et al. 2009, Benamou et al 2016, ...).What about other numerical schemes ?• JKO = first-order. Dynamics is regular with respect to time ! Whatabout higher (second) order ?

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 9 / 42

Page 10: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

High order schemes

• Idea 1: by Runge-Kutta : ODE x ′(t) = f (x(t)) (f = −∇F )Crank-Nicholson x τk+1 = x τk + τ fk+1+fk

2 , 2nd order.For ∇-flows in a metric space: no gradient ’f ’, no vector calculus.• Idea 2 (from symplectic integrators): increase the order by composition? here: take F quadratic, equation x ′(t) = Ax(t) (linear);? Implicit Euler: xτ

k+1−xτk

τ = Ax τk+1 thus x τk+1 = (I − τA)−1x τk ;? composition of IE steps α1h, .... αnh : multiplication by

(I − αnτA)−1...(I − α1τA)−1;? condition to be the same as exp(Aτ):

first order∑n`=1 α` = 1;

second order∑n`=1 α

2` +

∑1≤`<m≤n α`αm = 1/2.

Second condition implies (∑n`=1 α`)

2 −∑

1≤`<m≤n α`αm = 1/2 thus∑1≤`<m≤n α`αm = 1/2,

∑n`=1 α

2` = 0.

CANNOT obtain second order from composition of I.E. schemes.

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 10 / 42

Page 11: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Second order schemes for gradient flows: the VIM scheme

• Recall for ODE x ′(t) = f (x(t)): consistency error ( tk = kτ).consistency error for Implicit Euler x(tk+1)−x(tk )

τ − f (x(tk+1)) =x ′(tk+1/2) + O(τ2)− f (x(tk+1)) = f (x(tk+1/2))− f (x(tk+1))︸ ︷︷ ︸

O(τ)

+O(τ2).

• (modified) Midpoint method: x τk+1 = x τk−1 + 2τ fk , 2nd order.

• idea: use the variational formulation : Variational Implicit Midpoint(VIM) scheme (G. Legendre, G.T., ’16):x τk+1 ∈ argminx∈A

d(xτk ,y)2

2τ + 2F (xτ

k +y2 )

” x+y2 ” = the midpoint of the geodesic from x to y .

• Hilbert space critical point equation: xτn+1−xτ

nτ +∇F (

xτn+1+xτ

n2 ) = 0.

Consistency error = O(τ2).

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 11 / 42

Page 12: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Second order schemes for gradient flows: the EVIE scheme• Re-writing of the VIM scheme: x τk+1 ∈ argminx∈A

d(xτk ,y)2

2τ + 2F (xτ

k +y2 )

• Notation z =xτ

k +y2 , then y is the 2-geodesic-extrapolate of x τk with

respect to z , ”y = 2z − x τk ”; d(x τk , y) = 2d(x τk , z).• minz∈A...

d(xτk ,z)2

2(τ/2) + F (z) : BUT this is I.E. of step τ/2 !• Extrapolated Variational Implicit Euler (EVIE) scheme : do a τ/2 IE (=JKO) step and then extrapolate on the geodesic.EASY to implement in an existing JKO / IE code ! OK in Hilbert spaces ...

xτnxIE:τ/2n+1

xτnxIE:τ/2n+1

xEV IE:τn+1

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 12 / 42

Page 13: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Numerical results for VIM and EVIE schemes: heat flowNumerical results for F (ν) =

∫R V (x)ρ(x) + σ2

2∫R ρ(x) log(ρ(x))dx ,

V (x) = θ(x−µ)2

2 , T = 1, σ = 1, θ = 12 , µ = 5, M = 32 spatial discretization points.

10 -3 10 -2 10 -1 10 0

time step =

10 -6

10 -5

10 -4

10 -3

10 -2

10 -1

10 0

W2 e

rro

r

error JKO ref EVIEerror EVIE ref EVIEerror VIM ref EVIEerror EVIE ref VIMerror VIM ref VIMerror JKO ref VIM

0 50 100 150

number of time steps

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

estim

ated

ord

er

order JKO ref VIMorder VIM ref VIM

Figure: # of time steps: 4, 7, 12, 20, 33, 54, 90 and 148 (reference 244). Left: error for JKO(dotted line) and VIM / EVIE (solid lines) schemes. Right: order of convergence: JKO (dottedline), VIM / EVIE (solid lines). 4 steps VIM/EVIE = 90 steps JKO/IE.

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 13 / 42

Page 14: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Numerical results for the EVIE scheme: PKSG[ρ] =

∫ρ(t, x) log(ρ(t, x)) dx + χ

π

∫ ∫ρ(t, x)ρ(t, y) log |x − y |dxdy

10−2 10−110−8

10−7

10−6

10−5

10−4

10−3

10−2

4

7

1220

3354

901482444036651096

4

7

12

20

33

54

90

148

244

403

665

1096

time step τ

W2

error

χ = π

error JKO ref EVIE

error EVIE ref EVIE

10−2 10−1

10−7

10−6

10−5

10−4

10−3

10−2

10−1

100

47

1220

3354

901482444036651096

47

12

20

33

54

90

148

244

403

665

1096

time step τ

W2

error

χ = 1.9π

error JKO ref EVIE

error EVIE ref EVIE

Figure: Error of the JKO and EVIE schemes for PKS model; T = 2, time steps: reference solEVIE(1808). Left: χ = π, order JKO = 1.02, order EVIE = 2.01; Right: χ = 1.9π, order JKO= 0.99, order EVIE = 2.00 (corrected by excluding first two points).

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 14 / 42

Page 15: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Theoretical results for the VIM scheme

mid-slope :∣∣∣∇MF

∣∣∣ (x , y) = lim supz→y

(F( x+y2 )−F( x+z

2 ))+

d( x+y2 , x+z

2 ).

Hypothesis ( non standard):• (geometric) ∀x ∈ X the set

⋃y∈X

x+y2 is closed;

• (geometric) ∀(x , y) ∈ X 2, the set x+y2 is a singleton.

• (adaptation for∣∣∣∇MF

∣∣∣ instead of |∇F |) ∀x ∈ D(F ),D(F ) ⊃ (xn)n∈N → x and D(F ) ⊃ (yn)n∈N → x imply∣∣∣∇MF

∣∣∣ (x , x) ≤ lim infn→∞∣∣∣∇MF

∣∣∣ (xn, yn);• (regularity for F ) if any two of the elements x , y , x+y

2 belong to D(F ),then the third also does and:∣∣∣∣∣F (x) + F (y)− 2 F ( x+y

2 )

d2(x , y)

∣∣∣∣∣ ≤ H, (5)

where H is a constant independent of x and y .Sufficient condition: F and −F are λ-convex.

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 15 / 42

Page 16: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Theoretical results for the VIM scheme

Hypothesis (standard):

• F is lower semicontinuous, bounded from below, and such that: ∀r >0,∀c ∈ R, ∀x ∈ X the set y ∈ X |F (y) ≤ c, d(x , y) ≤ r is compact,• F has the following continuity propertyif xn → x , and sup|∇F |(xn),E (xn) <∞ then F (xn)→ F (x);

Theorem (G. Legendre, G.T. 2016)Let T > 0 be fixed and (X , d) be a Polish metric space.Under above hypotheses for some τ > 0, the set of curves(x τt )t∈[0,T ]; 0 ≤ τ ≤ τ is relatively compact (with respect to the localuniform convergence) and any limit curve is a gradient flow in the EDIformulation.

• this is consistency• what about the (second) order of convergence ?

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 16 / 42

Page 17: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Outline1 Gradient flows

General introductionGradient flows examplesJKO, consistency error and construction of second order schemesNumerical results for VIM and EVIE schemesTheoretical results for the VIM scheme

2 Vaccination (mean field) gamesVaccine scares MFG models

An analytical model: SIR-VIndividual dynamicsIndividual-societal equilibriumFurther models: discount, imperfections, ...

Computing the equilibriumNumerical resultsMFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical resultsHigh order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas by L. Laguzet

3 Perspectives

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 17 / 42

Page 18: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Disclaimer:

What follows is a THEORETICAL epidemiological investigation. It is notmeant to be used directly for health-related decisions; if in need to takesuch a decision please seek professional medical advice.

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 18 / 42

Page 19: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Vaccine scares: MFG modelsInfluenza A (H1N1) (flu) (2009-10)• At 15/06/2010 flu (H1N1): 18.156 deaths in 213 countries (WHO)• France: 1334 severe forms (out of 7.7M-14.7M people infected)

Countries Official target coverage Effective rate of vaccinationGermany 100 % 10%Belgium 100 % 6 %

Spain 40 % < 4%France 70 - 75 % 8.5 %Italy 40 % 1.4 %

Previous vaccine scares (some have been disproved since):• France: hepatitis B vaccines cause multiple sclerosis• US: mercury additives are responsible for the rise in autism• UK: the whooping cough (1970s), the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR)

(1990s).

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 19 / 42

Page 20: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Further motivation: end of compulsory vaccination

• context in France: discussions on the end of general compulsoryvaccination

• How is vaccination coverage evolving ? Example: nobody vaccinatesthen an additional individual may vaccinate; if all vaccinate an additionalindividual will not vaccinate. Will the vaccination coverage becomeunstable or chaotic ?

• question: what are the determinants of individual vaccination

• hint: individual decisions sum up to give a global response; need a model.

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 20 / 42

Page 21: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Influenza incidence historical data in France

Sourse: ’Sentinelles’ network, INSERM/UPMC, http://www.sentiweb.fr

Influenza A (H1N1) (flu) (2009-10) : see next.

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 21 / 42

Page 22: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Influenza A (H1N1) (flu) (2009-10), France

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 22 / 42

Page 23: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

The SIR-V model

Global model

Susceptible Infected Recovered

Vaccinated

−dV

−βSIdt −γIdt

Figure: Graphical illustration of the SIR-V model. In this model all individuals areidentical. β : probability of contamination, γ : recovery rates, dV (t) : measureof vaccination, can be sum of Diracs (!!)

dS = −βSIdt − dV (t)dI(t)

dt = βSI − γIdR(t)

dt = γI(t)

S

I

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 23 / 42

Page 24: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Vaccination cost functional

Cost for an infected person : rI .Cost of the vaccine (including side-effects) : rV .

Global cost for the society (from the initial state X0 = (S(0), I(0))T ) :

J(X0,V ) = rI

∫ ∞0

βSIdt + rV

∫ ∞0

dV (t) (6)

• General tools: Abakuks, Andris, 1974 ”Optimal immunisation policies forepidemics”, ...• viscosity solution (HJB version): L. Laguzet & GT, Math. Biosci.,263:180–197, 2015

This gives the ”official” targets, BUT is not what individuals do !

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 24 / 42

Page 25: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Taking into account the individual decisions: previousliterature

Bauch & Earn (PNAS 2004) : a SIR-V model with births and deaths,constant vaccination rateResults : no eradication possible, ...Francis (2004) : uses a SIR-V model to find an equilibrium.Galvani, Reluga & Chapman (PNAS 2006) consider a double SIR-Vperiodic model of flu with two age groups (break at 65yrs). Vaccination isseparated from dynamics, once at the beginning of each season.Results : show that actual vaccine coverage is consistent with individualoptimum; explain impact of age-targetted campaigns (children).Bauch (2005) : time dependent vaccination rate, the correspondingdynamics is a phenomenological proposalB. Buonomo : vaccination as a feedbackF. Fu : taking into account the topology (networks of acquaintances)

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 25 / 42

Page 26: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Individual dynamics

Susceptible Infected Recovered

Vaccinated

−dV

−βSIdt −γIdt

Global dynamics : con-tinuous time determinis-tic ODE; is the masterequation of the indivi-dual dynamics.

Susceptible Infected Recovered

Vaccinated

...

rate βI rate γ

Individual dynamics:continuous time Mar-kov jumps between’Susceptible’, ’In-fected’, ’Recovered’ and’Vaccinated’ classes.

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 26 / 42

Page 27: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Individual cost functional (discount = 0)dS = −βSIdt − dV (t)

dI = (βSI − γI)dt.vaccination at the society level withdV (t); it can have the form dV (t) =uG (t)dt.

• Society dynamics induces a cumulative probability of infection on[0, t] : ϕI(t) solution of dϕI(t) = βI(t)(1− ϕI(t))dt, ϕI(0) = 0.• Individual decision: ϕV (with constraints cf. above).• Individual cost functional : depends on the individual policy dϕV , a

probability lawJindi (ϕV ; V ) = rIϕ

I(∞) +∫∞

0−[rV − rIϕ

I(∞) + (rI − rV )ϕI(t)]dϕV (t).

• Individual - global equilibrium condition (global strategy arise fromindividual decisions): dV (t) = S(t)

1−ϕV (t) dϕV (t) (when this operationmakes sense) (Mean Field Games, cf. Lasry - Lions, Caines - Huang -Malhame).• related works: C. Gueant (graphs), O. Cardaliaguet (HJB), D.

Gomes : hyp. of superlinear costs (here linear); pure strategy set isnot compact.

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 27 / 42

Page 28: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Theoretical results for discount=0Analytic description of the Nash-MFG equilibrium (G.T., L. Laguzet ’15)

S1

I1

O

Red region: vaccination in the societal modeland in the individual model, green region :vaccination for the societal model but not forthe individual, blue region: no vaccination inboth models.

? Mean cost for an individual in the stable individual-global equilibriumis larger than the cost for the, non equilibrium, societal(non-individual) optimum state

? this is because in the green region, it is optimal for individuals to letother vaccinate.

? Conclusion: the stable strategy will be obtained even if it is morecostly for everyone; the ”cost of anarchy” in the model is strictly > 0.

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 28 / 42

Page 29: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Equilibrium for discount > 0, no constraints on vaccinationspeedTheoretical results (GT, LL 2015)

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 10

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Ωi

ΩnΩd

•(S∗, I∗)

S

I

White region: no vacci-nation, Π∞

gray region : delayedvaccination (new beha-vior, Πt∗ )dotted region: immedi-ate vaccination, Π0

Comparing Π0 and Π∞(Francis) is not enough,more complicated dyna-mics than D = 0.

More complicated regi-ons for finite vaccina-tion speed(L. Laguzet,G. Yahiaoui, G. T. 2016), uniqueness not pro-ved.

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 29 / 42

Page 30: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Imperfect vaccination: efficacy, delays (with F. Salvarani)The individual model in DISCRETE TIME

Susceptible

(S)

Failed Vaccination

(F )

Infected

(I0)

Infected

(I1). . .

Vaccinated

(not infected) (V 0)

Partially

Immunized

(V 1)

. . .

Partially

Immunized

(V Θ−1)

Lost

Immunity

(V Θ)

Recovered

(R)

f λn (1 − βn∆T In)

β n∆T I

n

(1 − f)λn (1 − βn∆T In)

α0β

n∆TI n

α1βn ∆

TIn

αΘ−

1 β n∆T I

n

βn∆T In

αΘβ n

∆T I

n

1 − γ0∆T

γ 0∆T

γ 1∆T

1 − γ1∆T

Figure: Individual model.Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 30 / 42

Page 31: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Imperfect vaccination

• Continuous time-version:S ′(t) = −βS(t)I(t)− U ′(t)

I ′(t) = β[S(t) + F (t) +

∫+∞0 A(θ)V (t, θ)dθ

]I(t)− γI(t)

∂tV (t, θ) + ∂θV (t, θ) = −βA(θ)V (t, θ)I(t)F ′(t) = fU ′(t)− βF (t)I(t).• Initial and boundary conditionsS(0) = S0− , I(0) = I0− ,∀t ≥ 0 : S(t) ≥ 0, F (0−) = 0,V (0−, θ) = 0, ∀θ ≥ 0,V (t, 0) = (1− f )U ′(t),• Individual cost Jindi (ξ; V ) = Eξ[gV ] = 〈ξ, gV 〉RN+1 , gV , ξ ∈ RN+1, to beminimized under the constraint ξ = (discrete) probability law.• compatibility: when all individuals follow ξ vaccination is V .

Theorem (F. Salvarani, G.T. 2016)The vaccination dynamics model admits a Nash equilibrium.

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 31 / 42

Page 32: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Summary for MFG vaccination models

• cost has the structure C(individual , societal); it is to be optimized withrespect to the ’individual ’ strategy, the ’societal ’ remains fixed, i.e.individual 7→ C(individual , societal);

• Nash / MFG equilibrium when ’individual ’ is unilaterally optimal and’societal ’= ’individual ’ (similar to a fixed point);

• benevolent planner approach: minimize individual 7→C(individual , individual);

• in general neither a benevolent planner game (cost of anarchy ...), nor azero-sum game.

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 32 / 42

Page 33: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Computing the equilibrium: semi-explicit schemes onmetric spaces

• How to find and equilibrium ?Example: (bi-linear, Hilbert) C(η, ξ) = 〈η, Lξ〉 the dynamicsx ′(τ) = −Lx(τ), i.e., x(τ) = e−Lτx0 goes to equilibrium.• JKO goes to the minimum of 〈η, Lη〉 = 〈η,L+LT η〉

2 , i.e., theanti-symmetric part of L dissapears; in general obtain a ∇-flow convergingto a ”benevolent planner” perspective.• semi-explicit numerical scheme for C(individual = ξI , global = ξG):Algorithm: set ξk = ξG

k = ξIk , and

ξk+1 ∈ argminη∈ΣN+1

dist(η, ξk)2

2∆τ+ C(η, ξk).

• related to ”best reply” (MFG: cf. G. Carlier and co-workers) and”fictitious play” (MFG: cf. P. Cardialiaguet et al.) learning methods ingame theory.

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 33 / 42

Page 34: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Computing MFG equilibrium

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

time

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

9(t)

#10 -3 initial strategy 9 , iter=0/1000 nonvacmass=100%

9(t)

Figure: Notation: ξτ (t) is a time-dependent probability law over the possible vaccination timesindexed by variable t. Initial data ξτ=0(t) (uniform) and iterations (VIDEO) of the vaccinationMFG equilibrium strategy ξτ . Case: short persistence.

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 34 / 42

Page 35: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Short persistence, perfect efficacy

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

time

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

9

#10 -3

Solution strategy ξMFG supportedat several time instants between0.25 and 0.43, with 68% of non-vaccinating individuals.

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

time

0.023

0.024

0.025

0.026

0.027

0.028

0.029

C 9

Cost CξMFG of the optimal conver-ged strategy ξMFG , red line: costof the non-vaccinating pure stra-tegy (CξMFG )N+1

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 35 / 42

Page 36: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Effects of the failed vaccination rate on the strategyIndividual vaccination policy with respect to the failed vaccination rate ofthe vaccine.

f 1− ξ∞0 5.04

0.25 5.940.5 7.02

0.55 7.20.6 7.29

0.65 7.230.75 5.740.8 2.93

0.85 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.80

2

4

6

8

failure rate (f )

%of

vacc

inat

ion

(1−ξ ∞

)

rV = 0.025 (the other parameters are unchanged)If f = 0.85 the probability of being infected is 14.38%.

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 36 / 42

Page 37: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoreticalresults (GT ’17)

• Question: explicit ∆τ → 0 has a meaning ?

• Hilbert space: ∂τξ(τ, t) +∇1C(ξ(τ, t), ξ(τ, t)) = 0; metric spaceequivalent ?

Limit curve ? JKO strategy: compactness by equi-continuity and uniformboundedness.• Upper bounds (assume: Lipschitz in the second, ’societal’, strategy;relatively compact level sets ... ):C(ξk+1, ξk+1) ≤ C(ξk+1, ξk) + Ld(ξk+1, ξk) ≤ C(ξk+1, ξk) + d(ξk+1,ξk )2

2∆τ+τL2/2 ≤ C(ξk , ξk) + ∆τL2/2 ≤ ... ≤ C(ξ0, ξ0) + TL2/2.• equi-continuity: rework the details of the proof of ∇-flow of ξ 7→ C(ξ, ν)• CONCLUSION: when ∆τ → 0 there exists a limit curve.

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 37 / 42

Page 38: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoreticalresults (GT ’17)• give a meaning in a metric space to:∂τξ(τ, t) +∇1C(ξ(τ, t), ξ(τ, t)) = 0;• literature: ∇-flows for E (t, x): Ferreira-Valencia-Guevara ’15,Rossi-Mielke-Savare ’08, C. Jun ’12, Kopfer-Sturm ’16

• EDI (pointwise) formulation (G.T. ’17)d

dτ C(ξτ , ν)∣∣∣ν=ξτ

+ 12 |ξ′τ |

2 + 12 |∇1C|2 (ξτ , ξτ ) ≤ 0 a.e.

does not use convexity but uses regularity hypothesis for C.

• EVI formulation (G.T. ’17)C(ξτ , ξτ ) + 1

2d

dτ d2(ξτ , y) + λ2 d2(ξτ , y) ≤ C(y , ξτ ), ∀y , a.e. τ ≥ 0.

does not use much regularity uses λ-convexity.

• both are the limit of numerical schemes (under hyp.)

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 38 / 42

Page 39: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

High order schemes for vaccination games: results by L.LaguzetWhat about 2nd order schemes for MFG? Recent work by L. Laguzet, 3high order schemes inspired from Heun, RK3, RK4:The (standard, Hilbert space) Heun:

p1 = xk + τ f (tk , xk), xk+1 = xk +τ

2

[f (tk , xk) + f (tk+1, p1)

].

The variational (metric space) Heun scheme

ξk+1 ∈ argminη∈A

d(η, ξk)2

2τ + C(η, ξk)

, (7)

ξk+1 ∈ argminη∈A

d(η, ξk)2

2τ +12C(η, ξk) +

12C(η, ξk+1)

. (8)

Two minimizations are required in order to obtain ξk+1.Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 39 / 42

Page 40: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

High order schemes for MFG: numerical results (courtesyof L. Laguzet)

10−1 100

10−5

10−4

10−3

10−2

10−1

100

2000

1000

667

500

400334

286250

223200

182167

2000

1000

667

500

400

334

286

250

223

200

182

167

Time step τ

Estim

ated

error

error VEE ref VRK4 (τ = 0.01)

error VH ref VRK4 (τ = 0.01)

Figure: Explicit Euler (= ”best reply”, noted VEE) and Variational Heun (VH) schemes.

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 40 / 42

Page 41: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Outline1 Gradient flows

General introductionGradient flows examplesJKO, consistency error and construction of second order schemesNumerical results for VIM and EVIE schemesTheoretical results for the VIM scheme

2 Vaccination (mean field) gamesVaccine scares MFG models

An analytical model: SIR-VIndividual dynamicsIndividual-societal equilibriumFurther models: discount, imperfections, ...

Computing the equilibriumNumerical resultsMFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical resultsHigh order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas by L. Laguzet

3 Perspectives

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 41 / 42

Page 42: High order schemes for gradient flows and vaccination mean ... · MFG numerical schemes on metric spaces: theoretical results High order algorithms for vaccination games: schemas

Perspectives

• more examples for ∇-flows

• general proof of the order of convergence of VIM, EVIE

• general evolution on metric spaces, not only ∇-flows

• other higher order schemes (for non-MFG settings)

• MFG: does evolution converges to an equilibrium ?

• MFG: impose some evolution for the global variable ?

• ...

Gabriel Turinici (CEREMADE & IUF) Metric high order schemes JLL lab, Paris, 2017 42 / 42