High-resolution Climate Projections for Vietnam: Facilitating effective climate adaptation

Dr Jack Katzfey December 2012CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP

Project aims

• Improve Vietnam's understanding of climate change

• Integrate past and current research for a more complete assessment of the potential effects of climate change

• Provide information necessary for appropriate planning and investment to adapt to climate change

• Develop innovative communication tools to ensure that the data generated is widely accessible

• Capacity building

• Develop collaboration

Approach/Plan

Providing an evidence base for planning for Climate change1. Collaborate with IMHEN and HUS to increase technical skills and

strengthen capacity to develop climate change scenarios

2. Incorporate the latest global climate model information

3. Use a number of different regional climate models to help capture the range of factors that contribute to climate change and its impacts at high resolution

4. Build on existing research and analysis

5. Promote a comprehensive approach that can be applied consistently to avoid duplication of future effort

Project components

Component 1: Observations/analyses/drivers

Component 2: Dynamical downscaling

Component 3: Analysis of climate projections

Component 4: Regional sea-level projection

Component 5: Assessing response options from climate change projections

Component 6: Communication and management

Project outcomes

• Capture and analysis of existing data in order to better understand the current climate and its trends

• Completion of high-resolution dynamical downscaled projections for a range of scenarios and methods

• Analysis of the implications of the results for the various regions of Vietnam

• Building the capacity of Vietnam to analyse, understand and complete future climate change projection

• Communication of the results to key stakeholders in order that the results are used in adaptation planning

6

To provide updated climate change projections for VietnamTo provide basic information assessing CC impacts and

to develop action plans for responding to CC

• Dynamical downscalingMethod

Tm Tx

Component 1: Observations/analyses/drivers

• Collect and analyze station observations for current observed trends

• Create gridded downscaled analyses

• Determine key climate drivers for Vietnam

– Monsoon

– Tropical Cyclones

– El Nino

Observed trends in temperature and rainfall

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

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f(x) = 0.0608588075664458 x − 120.378273605236R² = 0.16589074440032

TC0_Anom_ANN

Linear (TC0_Anom_ANN)

SCS_SSTA_ANN_x5

Inter-annual variability of TC0 anomaly and SSTA - Annual

Trends in East Sea surface temperatures and tropical storms

Component 2: Dynamical Downscaling

• Select six CMIP5 global climate models to downscale for two representation concentration pathways (4.5: low and 8.5: high)

• CSIRO will run the stretched-grid, Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model at about 10 km resolution over Vietnam

• HUS will run two regional climate models (WRF and RegCM) over Vietnam at 20 km

• IMHEN will compare new results with previous studies

• Access and use other downscaled data as available

Recent news

The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C, 2012, Glen P. Peters, Robbie M. Andrew, Tom Boden, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Corinne Le Quéré, Gregg Marland, Michael R. Raupach and Charlie Wilson, Nature Climate Change

Annual cycle of precipitation (previous run by IMHEN)

R1

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Month

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R4

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

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(m

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R7

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- Double-peaks- Peak magnitude ~ 40%

The whole of Vietnam

0

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ipit

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n (m

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ay) STN

APH

CRU

ERA-interim

The model also can capture the seasonal cycle of precipitation well

Tend to be wetter than OBS during Feb-Aug

Variability of JJA rainfall (IMHEN)

JJA

-3

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1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Year

Pre

cip

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/day

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APH

CRU

ERA-INT

annual rainfall anomaly

The PRECIS model provides a reasonable simulation of IAV of precipitation compared to observed data

Number of CMIP5 global models agreeing on future rainfall change(RCP8.5 – high, end of century)

Increase

First Intermonsoon

Northeast monsoonSecond Intermonsoon

Southwest monsoon Annual

Decrease

Downscaling

• Global climate model (GCM) projections

• 6 GCMs and 2 RCPs (4.5, 8.5)

• Driven by sea surface temperatures (SST) onlyCCAM 50 km CCAM 10 km

GCM SST

Vietnam and orography

Orography at 10 km resolution

High rainfall on the windward side and less rain on the lee ward side (rain shadow)

SUMMER MONSOON MEAN RAINFALL

April to September

Component 3: Analysis of climate projections• IMHEN will lead in analysis of climate projections from downscaled

simulations

• All will help analyze high-resolution projections and summarize in final report and scientific journal articles

Focus on climate change projections for periods around 2050 and 2090:– Changes in mean climate, seasonality and extreme events– Ensembles of model simulations to assess the range of uncertainty– Results to be included in final technical report and in relevant communications

• CSIRO will develop the Climate Futures Tool for Vietnam – For 7 regions across Vietnam– Incorporate CMIP5 global model data and downscaled data– Communicate range of future projections

OBS

CCAM

Linda

Keith

Tropical depression < 34 knots

Climate Futures tool:Managing Risk

Radiation-5 % 0 +5%

Rainfall0 +20 %-20 %

Radiation: 1.1 (-1.2 to +1.8) %

Rainfall change: 2.3 (-15 to +10) %

Typical Climate Projections

Climate Futures Tool

Component 4: Regional sea-level projection

• CSIRO will develop regional sea-level projections for Vietnam

• Sea-level rise will not be uniform due to changes in ocean circulation, gravitational effects, glaciers, etc.

Sea-level rise will not be uniform

24

Greenland Fingerprint

Glacier and ice cap Fingerprint

Antarctic Fingerprint

Gomez et al. 2011

Updated regional projections

• 5.1 Training of IMHEN staff and other relevant agencies– Seminar 1: Why integrated assessment and what methods are available?– Seminar 2: Training in Agent-based modelling– Seminar 3: Hands-on tasks for model design & model analysis– Seminar 4: In-depth training of model design and model use

• 5.2 Participatory design– What are the assessment needs of Vietnam’s coastal communities?– Decision on methodology: Agent-based simulation & flood plan model– Development of systems diagram

• 5.3 Data preparation– Collate necessary data: GIS, soil, hydrology, households, economics…

Component 5: Building capacity & designing assessment needs

Downscaled projection a key input for assessing adaptation options

Identify & assess adaptation options

Downscaled climate

projection

Sea-level riseprojection

Other hydrological data

Social householddata

EconomicdataGIS

data

Methods & skills

Building capacity & designing assessment needs

…on…• Vulnerability, Sensitivity, Adaptive capacity,

Risk• Agricultural Production• Hydrology• Household Economics, wellbeing and poverty• Population growth• Food security. Nutrition• Biodiversity, Environment, endangered species • Gender equality• Migration• Public health, diseases, • Livelihoods (incl. job changes)• Freshwater access and salinity intrusion

…the impact of…• Changes in sea-level, rainfall,

temperature, extreme events• Weather monitoring /early warning• Dykes/sluice gates, water treatment

and urban drainage,• Resettlements,• Crop &land use changes, deforestation• Road upgrades• Building code changes• International water sharing & dam

operation agreements • Awareness raising & new crop research

Component 6: Communication and management

• Activity 6.1: Dissemination of downscaled data (IMHEN, CSIRO)– Data, images, documentation, reports and brochures downloadable from the

website– Web-based delivery system of data

• Activity 6.2: Workshops – July 2012 in Hanoi, Dec 2012 Melbourne and May/June 2013 – Launch in

Vietnam

• Activity 6.3: PhD Training– IMHEN and HUS have each sent two students to Melbourne for two months

for training

Component 6: Communication and management

• Activity 6.4: Training on downscaling and analyses– As part of workshops

• Activity 6.5: Final report– With nation-wide and regional summaries

• Activity 6.6: Scientific publications in international journals– Publication and communication plan will be developed to coordinate outputs by

the research team

Component 6: Communication and management

• Active engagement with Vietnam government representatives

• Explain project to stakeholders to maximise application of the projections in local adaptation planning and action

• Develop and maintain effective links with contributing researchers, including international and regional agencies

• Ensure sound collaboration between researchers participating in the project

• Monitoring and evaluation plan

Component 6: Communication and management

Headline Statement:

The Regional Projections will help Vietnam better understand the likely change of climate throughout the country.

Improving the knowledge of climate change will help identify the people and sectors at risk and, in doing so, will support Vietnam in the challenging task of prioritizing its climate change response.

Funded by the Australian Government’s aid program, AusAID, the project is delivered by Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation in collaboration with Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment and Hanoi University of Science.

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP

Thank youPhone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176Email: Enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au

CSIROJack KatzfeyProject Leader

Phone: +61 3 9239 4562Email: jack.katzfey@csiro.auWeb: www.csiro.au/cmar