high speed for europe - 公益財団法人東日本鉄道文化 … speed for europe the transport...

Japan Railway & Transport Review / October 1994 17Copyright © 1994 EJRCF. All rights reserved.

High Speed for Europe

Abstract High-speed traffic is a central market

segment of European railways and istherefore of great importance for theirfuture.Consequently, all Europe's rail-ways are working together within theHigh-Speed Task Force of the Interna-tional Union of Railways (UIC). Thepast 2 years in particular have seen theopening of more new lines. The net-work will be developed substantiallyover the next few years, with the em-phasis on line projects connecting withnational networks.

High Speed for EuropeThe transport market in Europe is

growing at a fast rate, with passengerservices doubling over the past 20years. Increasing environmentalawareness and modern telecommunica-tions have not so far stemmed the risingmobility, so transport operators are in-creasingly reaching their capacity lim-its. The debate in the public arena con-cerning transport infrastructure devel-opment is taking on correspondingly-large dimensions. The situation of rail-ways is characterized by the fact thatthey are missing out on the growth intransport; maintaining or increasingtheir market share is dependent on con-sistent improvement of services. High-speed traffic in the passenger sectorstands a very good chance of reversingthe current trend.

This explains the ever-growing im-portance of "high speed" on railwaysand discussion of transport policy, par-ticularly since railways are extendingtheir services rapidly in this sector andcan offer market-oriented and environ-ment-friendly alternatives to congestedroad and air traffic. High-speed railservices have seen great expansion overthe past 2 years with the introductionof High-speed traffic on a further seriesof new lines.

The term "high-speed traffic" encom-passes all trains running at speeds over200 km/h but also trains running at 200km/h if the terrain, population densityor economic reasons do not justifyhigher speeds. The introduction of cor-responding market products generallycoincides with the opening of new linesto commercial operations. In additionto new lines, the European high-speednetwork consists of upgraded lines(200-250 km/h) and connecting lines(<200 km/h).

Soon after the first 210-km/h sectionwent into operation in Japan betweenTokyo and Osaka in 1964, the idea ofhigh-speed transport began takingshape in Italy, France and Germany.Initially, priority was given to projectsalong important national corridors likethe Rome-Florence Direttissima or thenew line between Paris and Lyons.However, attention very soon turned tointernational traffic, a move commen-surate with the technical opportunitiesoffered by high speed. Products can besuccessfully marketed for distances ofup to 1200 km in daytime traffic and upto 2500 km for overnight traffic. Manyinternational routes in Europe liewithin these limits.

High-Speed Task ForceThe increasingly international di-

mension of high-speed rail led the rail-ways to set up the High-Speed TaskForce within the International Union ofRailways in 1990. As a result of thenew political climate in Central andEastern Europe, the scope for high-speed applications has broadened con-siderably, and is now in a position toencompass all Europe. Consequently,the elements of the problem have be-come more complex and more than 30railways currently work togetherwithin the Task Force.

The group is headed by MichelWalrave, with the assistance of the UIC

High-Speed Division, which is respon-sible for the general supervision ofwork. As a body of the Task Force, theSteering Committee determines its ob-jectives, tasks and a special workingprogramme, which was set up to coverthe specific needs of high speed on aninternational basis. This programmecovers, for instance, the development ofa long-term master plan, creation andmaintenance of databases, socio-eco-nomic evaluations, technical harmoni-zation and communications. The Ex-ecutive Committee is responsible forimplementing the work programmeand for monitoring the work of six geo-graphical groups covering the whole ofEurope.

The High-Speed Task Force is in per-manent contact with the Commissionauthorities and the bodies of the Euro-pean Union with a view to networkachievement. Therefore, it is involvedin the work of the "High-level Group forHigh Speeds" chaired by the EuropeanCommission and the activities of the"Networks", "Technical harmoniza-tion", "Train command/control" and"Funding" Sub-Groups.

Master PlansPreparation for the first truly Euro-

pean network, drawing the nationalsystems together into an integratedwhole, is taking place over a number ofstages and has yet to reach full comple-tion. In the first phase between 1985and 1988, a "Proposal for a Europeanhigh-speed network" was drawn up bythe SNCF and the DB, and was subse-quently published in 1989 by the Com-munity of European Railways (CER)[1].

A "High-level Working Party" wasthen set up under the aegis of the ECCommission and given the task,amongst other things, of producing amaster plan for a European High-speedRail Network. The Working Party pub-

Gunther EllwangerMartin Wilckens

18 Japan Railway & Transport Review / October 1994

SPECIAL FEATURE – 30 YEARS OF HIGH-SPEED RAILWAYS

Copyright © 1994 EJRCF. All rights reserved.

lished its report in 1990, under the title"The European High-speed Rail Net-work" [2]. It was approved by the ECCouncil on 17 December 1990, togetherwith the "Master Plan for the EuropeanHigh-speed Rail Network (2010)".

This master plan includes 9,000 kmof new lines, 15,000 km of upgradedlines and 1,200 km of connecting lines.Fifteen "key links" are of particular im-portance to the European network.These are, for the most part, interna-tional projects in geographically-diffi-cult areas (e.g. mountains, straits), call-ing for costly engineering works andposing funding problems. The invest-ment required to implement the masterplan was set at about ECU100 billion

for infrastructure and ECU50 billionfor rolling stock.

The updating and extension of thisEC master plan has since been contin-ued within the High-Speed Task Force[3]. The major objective has been ex-tension of the proposed area of the net-work to cover all Europe and to come upwith a comprehensive proposal sincethe opening up of Eastern Europe. Atthe EURAILSPEED '92 Congress inApril 1992 in Brussels [4], the "Long-term Master Plan for a European High-Speed Network" was made public afterdrafting in agreement with the EC [5].This current master plan is an exten-sion of the two previous proposals. Forexample, the 15 key links propounded

by the EC are also found in the UICplan. For the EC plus Switzerland andAustria, it covers a network 23,000-kmlong, including 12,000 km of new lines.The funding to pay for the infrastruc-ture of this network is estimated atECU200 billion, including projects thathave already been implemented. A35,000-km network is planned on aPan-European scale (excluding theformer USSR), to include 20,000 km ofnew lines. The plans for Central andEastern Europe are currently being de-fined in greater detail and extended to-wards Russia and the Ukraine. A firstproposal has been included in the new-est map (Fig. 1) [6].


Extended ServicesIn France, commercial operation of

high-speed trains began in 1981 withthe opening of the southern section ofthe newly-built South-East line.French National Railways (SNCF)started revenue service on the AtlanticTGV line designed for 300 km/h in twostages (1989/1990). The Paris-Arrassection of the new North TGV line wasopened on 23 May 1993, followed inSeptember 1993 by the extension toLille and Fréthun/Calais at the en-trance to the Channel Tunnel, adding333 km of new line to SNCF's high-speed network. From 1994, this routewill be used by the "Eurostar" trainslinking London with Paris and Brus-sels, although the 71 km of new line inBelgium between Lille and Brussels isnot scheduled to open until 1997. Thisis due to special political circumstancespreventing the railway starting con-struction of the new line over the fulllength.

� London Waterloo International Stationwaiting for Inauguration of Cross-ChannelService (M. MIURA)

� Eurostar Train atTrial on North TGV Line(M. MIURA)

On 29 May 1994, the 70-km link be-tween the North TGV and the South-East TGV was opened, with stations atCharles de Gaulle Airport and theEurodisney theme park. On 3 July1994, the South-East TGV was ex-tended to Valence (83 km), bringing

the journey time from Paris toMarseilles (around 770km) down to 4hours. As France forges ahead with de-velopment of its high-speed network,the TGV share (passenger kilometers)of long-haul passenger traffic is ex-pected to rise further, from 31% in 1990to 56% in 1996.

High-speed revenue service began inGermany in June 1991 with the marketlaunch of the InterCity Express (ICE)and the full opening of the newMannheim-Stuttgart (100 km) andHanover-W?rzburg (327 km) lines.With the conventional InterCity trains,the ICE's form a network with clockfaceservices and stations where trains stopsystematically. From 23 May 1993, theservice has been restructured and ex-panded, with a major factor being theintegration of Berlin. Services are pro-vided by 60 ICE trainsets, accountingfor 25% of the German Railways long-haul services. Berlin is also the focalpoint of the opening of the newWolfsburg-Berlin line in 1997, the nextmajor extension of the ICE service.

� ICE Train at Frankfurt Central Station (T. SUGA)

Comparisons are frequently drawnbetween German and French high-speed traffic. However, the influence ofthe very different geographical struc-ture on infrastructure projects and ser-vice planning is often understated. TheSNCF timetables, which are geared todemand, and the large distances be-tween TGV stops (up to 800 km) associ-ated with this policy, must be seenagainst the background that a largenumber of journeys either begin or endin the Paris area (10 million inhabit-ants). To respond to the very broadrange of customer needs, it is more ad-vantageous in Germany to have a net-work in the true sense of the term be-cause of the polycentric structure of thecountry. However, the two concepts arebeginning to converge because the DB,with its Sprinter-ICE, network of

branch lines and individual timetableslots outside the clockface system isstructuring its service more flexibly,whereas the SNCF, by increasing thefrequency of trains on importantroutes,is coming closer to clockface ser-vice planning. For example, 10 TGVscurrently leave Paris for Rennes at 20minutes past the hour on weekdays.This is a welcome development giventhe project to link the high-speed net-works in France and Germany bymeans of the new lines between Paris-B r u s s e l s - C o l o g n e a n d P a r i s -Saarbrücken/Karlsruhe.

High speeds began in Spain on April1992 with the first traffic on the 471-km Madrid-Seville line. Unlike the restof the rail network, this line was builtto the standard 1,435 mm gauge, so allEuropean high-speed lines have thesame gauge. The next scheduledproject is the new line between Madrid,Barcelona and the Spanish-French bor-der. This will connect with the newFrench line from the border viaPerpignan to Montpelier and thencewith the South-East TGV, creating alink between Spain's high-speed ser-vices and the European high-speed railnetwork.

High-speed traffic in Italy is providedby 15 ETR450 trainsets at a speed of250 km/h. These trains have been oper-ating since 29 May 1988 on theDirettissima line from Rome to Flo-

� ETR450 at Rome Termini Station (T. SUGA)

� Train Stewardess welcoming Passengers toAVE (T. SUGA)




rence and beyond, to Genoa, Milan,Venice, Turin, Bari and Naples. By2000, it is planned to open the newTurin-Milan-Bologna-Florence andRome-Naples lines to traffic, making amajor corridor with a total length of 900km including the section already in use.Planning, funding and execution ofthese high-speed projects is the task ofa specially-created company, TrenoAlta Velocit?(TAV) S.p.A. In an inter-esting and innovatory form of public-private partnership, 40% is capitalizedby Italian railways with the remaining60% made up of private capital.

Network DevelopmentTables 1 and 2 show the development

of the European high-speed rail net-work up to the year 2000. The increas-ing links between high-speed systemswill create a network effect. At thesame time, the participating Europeanrailways will have a top-rank Europeanproduct at their disposal.

To realize its full potential, the net-work linking Paris, London, Brusselsand Amsterdam will require construc-tion of a new line from London to theChannel Tunnel and upgrading of theBrussels-Amsterdam link. The veryhigh population density in southeastEngland makes it very complex to de-termine a definite layout for the Lon-don-Channel Tunnel link. Neverthe-less, the line should be open before2000. The Brussels-Cologne line is ofspecific importance as a link to the Ger-man high-speed network and as an ele-ment in the main West-East route(Paris/London-Brussels-Cologne-Ber-lin-Warsaw). It is also hoped that thenew line between Cologne and theRhine/Main region (to Frankfurt andWiesbaden) can be opened by the year2000. Future travel times are shown inFigure 2.

Integration of the individual net-works hinges on projects in France.The extension of the South-East TGVas far as the French-Spanish borderwill bring Spain into the network,whereas the planned Alpine crossingbetween Lyons and Turin will connectthe French and Italian networks. Thecombination of new and upgraded lineson the Strasbourg-Dijon-Lyons route isa major element in the Berlin-Frank-

furt-Lyons-Barcelona route. SouthernGermany will be linked to France bythe East TGV.

In addition to the Lyons-Turin line,the requisite capacity on transalpinecorridors will be provided by the Basle-Milan, Munich-Milan and Vienna-Tarvisio routes. The positive result ofthe referendum of 27 September 1992means that the projects have beengiven the go-ahead in Switzerland.

E x t e n d i n g t h e n e t w o r k t o

Scandinavia will require building com-plex tunnels and bridges. An essentialelement is upgrading the Hamburg-Copenhagen line with a fixed linkacross the Femer Belt. The decision infavour of a fixed link betweenCopenhagen and Malmö means thehigh-speed network can be extended toStockholm and Oslo.

Table 1 Development of European High-Speed Network from 1981 to 1998

Table 2 Development of European High-Speed Network Likely Opening Up to

2000/2002

1981 France TGV South-East (1st part) 301 km

Italy Direttissima (1st part) 150 km

1983 France TGV South-East (2nd part) 116 km

1984 Italy Direttissima (2nd part) 74 km

1988 Germany NBS Würzburg-Hannover (1st part) 90 km

1989 France TGV Atlantic (1st part) 176 km

1990 France TGV Atlantic (2nd part) 106 km

1991 Germany NBS Würzburg-Hannover (2nd part) 237 km

Germany NBS Mannheim-Stuttgart 100 km

1992 Spain Madrid-Seville 471 km

Italy Direttissima (3rd part) 24 km

France TGV Rhône-Alpes (1st part) 38 km

1993 France TGV North (without Lille-Belgium frontier) 320 km

1994 France/GB Channel Tunnel 50 km

France North/South-East Connection 70 km

France TGV Rhône-Alpes (2nd part) 83 km

1996 France Atlantic Connection 32 km1997 France / Belgium Lille-Brussels 84 km

Germany (Hannover)-Wolfsburg-Berlin 158 kmGermany Wolfsburg-Braunschweig-(Göttingen) 12 kmGermany (Hamburg)-Uelzen-Stendal-(Berlin) 15 km

1998 Belgium Brussels-(Aachen) 89 km

length in km

(new lines)

Germany Cologne-Rhine/Main 186 kmLeipzig-Lichtenfels-(Nuremburg) 190 kmNuremburg-Ingolsradt-(Munich) 90 kmKarlsruhe-Offenburg 70 km

Austria Vienna-Bruck an der Mur 35 kmGB London-Channel Tunnel 110 kmFrance TGV Mediterranean 303 km

TGV East (1st part) 338 kmLyons-Montmélian (1st part of Lyons-Turin) 107 km

Spain Madrid-Barcelona 606 kmItaly Turin-Milan 150 km

Milan-Florence 264 kmRome-Naples 222 km

Fra/Spain Perpignan-Barcelona 174 kmNetherlands (Brussels-Antwerp)-Amesterdam 86 kmDK/Sweden Copenhagen-Malmö 46 km

2977 km

estimated lengthin km

(new lines)

Lines in service summer 1994 2406 km

Lines in service up to 1998 2796 km

Lines in service up to 2002 (Total) 5773 km


High Speed is a SuccessThe results of the railways already in

the high-speed rail sector are spectacu-lar. Through vast improvements inquality, the railways have acquiredsubstantial numbers of additional cus-tomers. Train load factors are reachingremarkable levels such as 51% in Ger-many, 65% in France and 66% in Spain.This demonstrates the attractivenessfor customers of this unique combina-tion of speed, comfort, safety and conve-nience. Overall, in western Europe,high-speed traffic already representsover 10% of total rail traffic, expressedin passenger-kilometres. The detaileddevelopment is shown in Figure 3,which clearly illustrates the pace atwhich the system has progressed in theearly 1990s.

Even more impressive are the resultsper corridor. For example, on theSouth-East TGV network as a whole,an increase of over 90% was recorded inthe number of passengers carried be-tween 1981 and 1992. During the firstyear of operation of the North-Euro-pean TGV, French Railways gainedmore than 20% of new passengers. Re-

sults on the Madrid-Seville line inSpain are striking; a total of 2.8 millionpassengers was recorded in 1993, 86%of whom were new customers! OnInterCity routes, German Railways'market share between Frankfurt andHamburg rose by 11%, from 28% to39%, after inauguration of the ICE

trainsets. This tremendous successwill be repeated on international lineswhen they come into service [7].

InteroperabilityThe establishment of a European high-

speed rail network will mean overcomingtechnical obstacles. The following as-pects are of relevance: track gauge, powersupplies, rolling-stock technology andsignalling techniques [8].

Spain, Portugal and the successorstates of the former USSR do not havethe standard European track gauge(1,435 mm). Spain's decision to buildthe high-speed Madrid-Seville line us-ing the standard gauge may point theway ahead. According to initial infor-mation from eastern Europe, there isinterest in building new lines to thestandard gauge. On the other hand,there are indications that the new Mos-cow-St. Petersburg line will be broadgauge. Given the specific conditionsand the continuation of the broad-gauge line to Helsinki, this would notpose problems.

In all probability, Europe will con-tinue to have a range of differentpower-supply systems, because the roll-ing stock can be designed to work withseveral systems. With modifications, itcan be used on several different railwaynetworks. Future generations of ve-hicles will also be equipped for the par-ticular area where they will be used.

Figure 3 Development of High-Speed Rail Traffic in Europe

(Billions Passenger - Kilometres)

Figure 2 High-Speed Network

PARIS-LONDON-BRUSSELS-AMSTERDAM-COLOGNE-FRANKFURTMost important planned journey times

Amsterdam

London

Paris

Frankfurt

Cologne

Journey time on completion of the project (1998)Best current journey time (1994)

Lille

Brussels

3h125h02

3h005h55

3h115h21

2h315h04

2h006h08

1h001h00 1h22

2h30

1h002h14

1h372h24

1h332h32

1h19

0h35

1981 1983 1985

0.7

5.7

9.3

1987 1989 1991 1992 1993

10.4

13.2

21.7

26.6

29.4




Since these areas are becoming increas-ingly international, covering more thanone railway network, solutions willprobably tend more-and-more to favourwide-scale use.

Problems are posed by signalling andcommunication systems, becausesafety has to be guaranteed at the sys-tem interfaces. The experience gainedfrom the "Eurostar" service on theChannel-Tunnel route will be very use-ful, because there are numerous prob-lems to be resolved. The UIC is promot-ing development of the European traincontrol system (ETCS), which may leadto harmonization in the longer term.

Independently of this, the railwaysand railway industry are currentlyworking together on developing techni-cal specifications for interoperability inhigh-speed traffic, in the context ofimplementation of the EU Directive oninteroperability, the purpose of whichis to lay down technical standards.Once defined, these standards will ap-ply to all new projects; probably, therewill be a limited selection of sub-sys-tems. Therefore, more than one cur-rent system will be allowed, since therewould be no way of avoiding isolatedtechnical solutions otherwise.

VehiclesThe vehicles used in high-speed traf-

fic are top-of-the-range products tailor-made by railway industry to suit opera-tors' requirements. Table 3 shows therolling stock used in Europe at presentand additional projects still at the plan-ning stage. It is clear from the tablethat France already has an entire fam-ily of TGVs in revenue service and thatprojects to extend this fleet over thenext few years are moving ahead veryrapidly. The first impression that allTGVs are the same is deceptive. Thedifferent series of TGV are all gearedspecifically for use in particular areasand for meeting the corresponding re-quirements in terms of capacity andquality. The length of TGV units isfixed, but when required, two units canbe coupled to form a single unit. In thisway, it is possible to split a train at astop along the journey and serve differ-ent end stations.

For example, there are three types ofSouth-East TGV: a standard version

with first and second class seating, aversion with only first class accommo-dation, and units with a third currentsupply system for traffic betweenFrance and Switzerland. The AtlanticTGV has ten intermediate coaches, twomore than the South-East TGV, andhas more modern technology. TheR?seau (Network) TGV will be able tocirculate freely on all SNCF new linesand is also equipped for journeys trav-elling at high speed over several hours.The PBKA TGV will be flexible at theinternational level, since it will havethe current supply systems and safetyequipment used in France, Belgium,Germany and the Netherlands. It willrun between Paris, Brussels, Cologne(Köln) and Amsterdam.

The first series of ICEs operated byGerman Railways is substantiallylonger than the TGV, generally com-prising between 11 and 13 intermedi-ate coaches. However, the number ofcoaches can be varied to suit require-ments, not on a daily basis but accord-ing to sections of the timetable. In linewith market requirements, the ICE of-fers passengers a high degree of com-fort compared with foreign trains.Nineteen ICE units are fitted with ad-ditional pantographs so that they canbe operated in Switzerland. Ordershave recently been placed for a newICE series which will differ from itspredecessors, particularly in length.Here, the German railways haveadopted the idea used on the TGVs and

Table 3 Rolling Stock for 250 km/h in Europe-- Present Situation and Planned Extensions --


have built shorter units that can be op-erated either on their own or joined to-gether depending on requirements.German industry, in association withGerman railways, is developing an ICEfor international traffic, equipped withdifferent signalling and power supplysystems. Plans are also made for anICE with tilting technology.

The Spanish high-speed train, the"AVE", is based on the TGV, althoughsome of the technical equipment camefrom Germany. RENFE has incorpo-rated three classes of coaches in allAVE trains. The Italian railways, fortheir part, have put another idea intopractice; their high-speed train, theETR450, runs on the new line at 250km/h. On other lines, its tilting bodyenables it to negotiate curves at higherspeeds by "leaning into" the curveeliminating the need for upgraded in-frastructure. More thought could begiven to use of tilting-body techniquesin high-speed trains in other countrieswith a view to reducing journey timeson upgraded and connecting lines.

Particular attention is currently fo-cused on "Eurostar", the new high-speed train due to enter revenue ser-

vice through the Channel Tunnel frommid-1994, linking London with Brus-sels and Paris. Technically speaking,

"Eurostar" belongs to the TGV family,but differs from the other versions interms of its special conditions of useand safety regulations. "Eurostar" com-prises 18 intermediate coaches and hasan overall length of 394 meters. It isbuilt in a strictly symmetrically fashionfrom the center of the train out.

Looking to the future, there is theplanned development of a double-deckerTGV, the same length as the Réseau TGVbut with 45% more seating. It will offerprecious capacity-enhancing opportuni-ties without the need to upgrade infra-structure, while at the same time sub-stantially reducing operating costs perseat-kilometer. The operating speed willprobably rise above 300 km/h, althoughno definite decision has been taken yet.In view of these new opportunities andthe important associated research, itwould be preferable if European industrycould cooperate closely to develop eco-nomic solutions for high-speed trains inEurope [9].

Traffic ForecastsThe study commissioned by the UIC/

CER and the EC on "Traffic forecastsand evaluation of a high-speed network

Figure 4 Traffic in Billion Passenger Kilometres (SCENARIO B)

(Trips 80 km only, without former East Germany, air traffic without

intercontinental flights)

Figure 5 Modal-Split of Long Distance Traffic (SCENARIO B)

(Travel Distance 80 km, without former East Germany, air traffic

without intercontinental flights)

131

815

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Car

13141355

579

104269

186

858

326

803

226

Rail Air

REFERENCE R2(2010)

without high-speedtrain network

1988 VARIANT S2(2010)

with high-speedtrain network 2010with key links 2010

REFERENCE R2 (2010)without high-speed train network

1988

VARIANT S2 (2010)with high-speed train network 2010

with key links 2010

Car59.2

Air16.7

Rail24.1

Car65.3

Air20.5

Rail14.2

Car71.1

Air12.8

Rail16.1




in western Europe" was completed inearly 1994. It was conducted by twocompanies: INTRAPLAN and INRETS[10]. It is the first study comprisingtraffic forecasts based on consistentdata for all national and internationalpassenger traffic (distances over 80 km)and for all transport modes exceptcoaches. The geographical sub-divisionmade in the study is very precise andtakes in the whole area of the EU plusthe Alpine countries (183 traffic cen-tres, plus a further 14 larger traffic cen-tres covering neighbouring countries).

The principal aim of the study was tocarry out traffic forecasts and cost-ben-efit analyses for the railways operatingthe high-speed network. Distinctionsare made between the differing degreesof development in the high-speed net-work. The study assumes moderateeconomic growth and a lower relative

increase in mobility than in the past,since slightly restrictive hypotheses forquality and costs were taken as the ba-sis of journeys by private car. Develop-ments in rival modes of transport weresimulated, particularly to take accountof the foreseeable expansion of themotorway network and improvementsin flight connections.

The following development scenarioswere at the forefront of the forecastsand evaluations relating to the high-speed network. • Reference case (R2), i.e. status quo

(in relation to 1988), with no furtherdevelopment of rail infrastructure.

• Basic alternative (V23), i.e. comple-tion of high-speed network withoutkey links

• Full alternative (S2), i.e. completionof high-speed network including keylinks

A comparison of these alternativesshows that in 2010, railways operatinghigh-speed rail services stand to gain,when taken together, 142 billion pas-senger km per year. This represents a72% increase, 40% of which can betraced to traffic transferred to the rail-ways from the roads, and 31% to traffictransferred from the airlines, with theremainder being newly-created traffic(Figure 4). The market share of therailways in relation to total passengertraffic in western Europe over dis-tances of more than 80 km should risefrom 14% to 24% for the S2 full alterna-tive, in terms of passenger km (Figure5). On this basis, high-speed trainswould generate 65% of passenger km inpassenger rail traffic, compared withonly 7% for the R2 reference case with-out further developments to infrastruc-ture. Future rail traffic flows are


Gunther Ellwanger

Dr Gunther Ellwanger joined DB in 1970 and was involved with planning the Mannheim-Stuttgart

high-speed line. From 1979 to 1983, he was responsible for PR in connection with new DB high-

speed lines. After 3 years as Manager of the Chairman's Staff for the DB Stuttgart region, he

became head of the Transport and Corporate Policy Department at DB Headquarters in Frankfurt

handling deregulation, EC topics, corporate environmental matters, etc. Since 1991, he has been

Director of the High Speed Division for UIC Headquarters in Paris.

shown in Figure 6.The share of total revenue generated

by high-speed trains is less than 10%with the R2 reference case, but rises to72% for the S2 full alternative. Withregard to investment, with the S2 fullalternative, the internal rate of returnis 6.4% where only the costs attributedto passenger traffic are taken into ac-count, and 4.3% where all investment isset against passenger traffic, which isclearly an extreme hypothesis.

Sensitivity calculations with respectto competitors' service conditions (par-ticularly air tariffs or car running costs)show relatively stable cost-effective-ness of the high-speed network, on theassumption of less-favorable competi-tive conditions for the railways.

ConclusionThese results demonstrate the ur-

gent need to develop the high-speednetwork and the new vistas that willopen up as a result. The new situa-tion throughout Europe calls for atransport system suited to the size ofthe continent. Through the develop-ment of high-speed rail services, theEuropean railways are improvingtheir product range radically and areincreasing their market share sub-stantially, to the greater benefit oftheir economic results. Alongsidesuch corporate objectives, there isalso the political determination topromote development of rail trans-port as one way of providing Europe'spopulation with sustainable mobilitycompatible with the constraints of en-vironmental conservation. �

Bibliography[1] Community of European Railways:

Proposal for a European High SpeedNetworks, Brussels, January 1989

[2] Commission of the European Commu-nities:European High Speed Train Net-work, Brussels, December 1990

[3] Walrave, Michel: Der Eintritt desEisenbahnhochgeschwindigkeits-verkehrs in d ie europä i s cheGeschichte, (High-speed rail traffictakes its place in European history),Jahrbuch des Eisenbahnwesens Folge43-1992, p.26-35,darmstadt 1992

[4] Eurailspeed '92, Rail International 6-7 1992, Brussels

[5] International Union of Railways-Com-munity of European Railways: Highspeed Railways, a network for Europe,Paris, Brussels, April 1992

[6] International Union of Railways-Com-munity of European Railways: Highspeed rail in Europe gains new momen-tum, Paris, Brussels, March 1994

[7] Wilckens, Martin: Rail can win trafficfrom road and air, International Rail-way Journal 4/93, p.57-59

[8] Ellwanger, Gunther: Entwicklung desHochgeschwindigkeitsverkehrs inEuropa, (Development of high-speedtraffic in Europe) Eisenbahningenieur45 (1994) 4 p.234-244

[9] Ellwanger, Gunther; Wilckens, Mar-tin: European high-speed transport: aservice with a future, Rail Interna-tional 1/94, p.2-12

[10] International Union of Railways: Traf-fic and Profitability for a Western Eu-ropean High speed train network,Paris,1994

Martin Wilckens

Mr Martin Wilckens studied at the university of Bonn and Bamberg and obtained an MA in Eco-

nomics. He has been working as an expert in high-speed railways with UIC in Paris since 1992.

high speed for europe - 公益財団法人 東日本鉄道文化 … speed for europe the transport...

Documents

high speed for europe - 公益財団法人東日本鉄道文化 … speed for europe the transport...