higher education overview fort hare university 12 april 2012
TRANSCRIPT
Overview
• Big picture – national and international context of HE
– Distance between institutional/local and national/global
• Economic growth and development
• Higher education and development
• Higher education in Africa
• New policy responses currently underway
• Key issues
2
Economic Growth and Human DevelopmentA substantial body of academic and technical literature provides evidence of the
relationship between informationalism, productivity and competitiveness for countries, regions and business firms. But, this relationship only operates under three conditions: information connectedness, organizational change in the form of networking; and enhancement of the quality of human labor, itself dependent on education and quality of life. (Castells and Cloete, 2011)
The structural basis for the growing inequality, in spite of high growth rates in many parts of the world, is the growth of a highly dynamic, knowledge-producing, technologically advanced sector that is connected to other similar sectors in a global network, but it excludes a significant segment of the economy and of the society in its own country. The lack of human development prevents what Manuel Castells calls the ‘virtuous cycle’, which constrains the dynamic economy. (Castells and Cloete, 2011)
Connecting growth to human development – trickle down don’t work
3
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita vs Human Development Index (HDI)
4
Country GDP per capita (PPP, $US) 2007
GDP ranking HDI Ranking (2007) GDP ranking per capita minus HDI ranking
Botswana 13 604 60 125 -65
Mauritius 11 296 68 81 -13
South Africa 9 757 78 129 -51
Chile 13 880 59 44 +15
Costa Rica 10 842 73 54 +19
Taiwan (China)
Ghana 1 334 153 152 1
Kenya 1 542 149 147 2
Mozambique 802 169 172 -3
Uganda 1 059 163 157 6
Tanzania 1 208 157 151 6
Finland 34 256 23 12 11
South Korea 24 801 35 26 9
U.S.A. 45 592 9 13 -4
Economic Growth in Post Apartheid SA
During the first decade of the post-apartheid era in South Africa, gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a ‘modest rate’, averaging one percent, though edging up to around three percent. Nevertheless, this has been the longest period of positive growth in its history.
The envisaged post-1994 economic policies for the development project stated that the economy would require steering onto a new development path which, amongst others, would reduce dependence on resource sectors through industrial deepening and diversification (Bhorat 2010).
Mohamed (2009, 2011) states that we experienced the ‘wrong type’ of economic growth from the end of apartheid and particularly during the five years prior to the 2008 financial crisis. Economic growth was not only associated with high unemployment and growing inequality, it was unsustainable because it required growing private sector indebtedness and was accompanied by decline in productive services and manufacturing
5
Economic Growth and the 2008 Financial CrisisThe worst impact of the 2008 crisis, resulted in at least a million job losses is
associated with:• structural industrial weaknesses and de-industrialization as a result of
development centred around mining and minerals• continued reliance on extractive mining and minerals exports• consumption led growth and increased investment in services sectors, such as
finance and retail• speculative asset bubbles in real estate and finance and increased construction
(mainly around the 2010 Soccer World Cup) and car sales • the role of the financial sector which has emulated the behaviour of US
financial institutions in increasing leverage and misallocation of capital in SA economy. (Mohamed 2009)
6
Economic Growth and Change of Skills Profile
A major change in the South African economy is the change in the skills profile. The National Planning Commission Diagnostic Report (NPC 2011) shows that job growth between 1995 and 2009 saw a 50% increase in high-skilled jobs and a 20% decrease in low-skilled jobs. Using data for the period 1970–2005, and updated to 2009, Bhorat (2010b:20) argue that “… this growth path has been built on a rising demand for skilled labour with a steady erosion in the demand for unskilled or under-skilled workers. The modern era in the South African economy has thus been defined by a growth path with a constant increased demand for educated workers at the expense of those with lower level of human capital”
7
Poverty Reduction in Post Apartheid SA (1)
The stated goal of the post-apartheid economic policy was to reduce poverty, inequality and unemployment. A 2% growth should lead to a 1-7% reduction in poverty, depending on the country – meaning the success of redistributive policies (Bhorat 2010a). In South Africa, poverty declined from 52% in 1995 to 49% in 2005 and in the lower poverty group a 7% decline (31% to 24%). In addition, there were definite gains in poverty reduction, particularly in African female-headed households (Bhorat 2010a). All people, regardless of race, experienced increases in expenditure, meaning that growth was ‘pro-poor’.
Despite the modest gains in poverty reduction, the inequality gap did not decrease; instead, it increased amongst all groups. This led Bhorat (2010a) to conclude that in 1994 South Africa was ‘one of the world’s most unequal societies, but by 2005 it may have become the world’s most unequal’.
8
Poverty Reduction in Post Apartheid SA (2)While spending on education and health remained fairly constant in real terms,
recipients of social grants (excluding administration) now consumes 3.2% of GDP, up from 1.9% in 2000/01. The total number of beneficiaries increased from 3 million in 1997 to 15 million in 2010 (Woodard and Rembrandt 2011). The share of households in the first income deciles with access to grant income increased from 43% in 1995 to almost 65% in 2005 and that even for households in the sixth deciles grant income increased from 19% in 1994 to 50% in 2005. According to Bhorat (2010a) this suggests that grant income does not only support the very poor, but also a large number of households in the middle income distribution.
More recent estimates suggest that 25% of the population are on social grants and 40 per cent of household income in the poorest quintile (Woolard and Leibbrandt 2011).
Post-1994 South African democratic redistribution model operates through extensive social grants at the bottom end, few benefits at the middle of the distribution curve and the main growth is at the de-racialising top end. Based on this growth path, both Bhorat (unequal income distribution) and Mbeki (the disempowerment of welfarism) express concern for the future of democracy.
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Higher Education and Development
• SA has a development model crisis• The small “productive” sector is increasingly globally connected
while the majority remain disconnected, but is “maintained” through social welfare which should be supplemented by service delivery – but this is not Productive nor Empowering
• We need more and broader growth which connects Growth to Human Development
• Castells project of Finland, Chile, Taiwan, Costa Rica, SA and California
• Higher education, and ICT, has a crucial role to play in virtuous growth - Knowledge production (growth), broadening medium level skills and participation (equity)
• Basic link is education and employment (linked)
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11
JapanGermany
UKItaly
Korea
BrazilArgentina
Egypt
Tunisia
United States
South Africa
India
China
Australia
Mexico
Influence of Scientific Research
Ec
on
om
ic d
ev
elo
pm
en
t
GDP per capita (current US$) Predicted GDP per capita (current US$)
High
Low
Low High
Data source: Thomson Reuters InCitesTM (21 September 2010); The World Bank Group (2010)
The relationship between scientific excellence and economic development
(R = 0.714, P = 0.218)(R = 0.961, P = 0.002)*
Vuyani Lingela, 24 November 2011
Participation Rate and Development Indicators
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CountryStage of
development (2009-2010)
Gross tertiary education
enrolment rate (2008)
Quality of education
system ranking (2009-2010)
Overall global competitive
ranking (2010-2011)
Ghana
Stage 1: Factor-driven
6 71 114
Kenya 4 32 106
Mozambique 2 81 131
Tanzania 2 99 113
Uganda 4 72 118
Botswana Transition from 1 to 2 20 48 76
Mauritius Stage 2: Efficiency-driven
26 50 55
South Africa 17 (8.5) 130 54
FinlandStage 3:
Innovation-driven
94 6 7
South Korea 98 57 22
United States 82 26 4
BRICS: Selected higher education and economic development indicators (WEF 2010)
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Country Stage of
development(2009-2010)
GDP per capita (USD)(2009)
Tertiary education
enrolment rate (2008)
Global Competitiveness
Index ranking (2010–2011)
Brazil Stage 2: Efficiency-driven 8 220 35 58
Russia Stage 2: Efficiency-driven 8 694 77 63
India Stage 1: Factor-driven 1 031 14 (2007) 51
China Stage 2: Efficiency-driven 3 678 23 27
South Africa Stage 2: Efficiency-driven 5 824 17 54
Gross participation rates in SA higher education by Race, 1986 - 2009
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African Coloured Indian White Average
1986 0.0500000000000001
0.0900000000000001
0.320000000000003
0.610000000000001
0.11
1995 0.0900000000000001
0.1 0.35 0.610000000000001
0.14
2000 0.1 0.0900000000000001
0.4 0.57 0.14
2005 0.12 0.13 0.51 0.600000000000001
0.16
2009 0.13 0.15 0.45 0.580000000000001
0.17
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
% P
arti
cipa
tion
Rat
e
Business/Man-agement
Life and Physical Sciences
Mathematical Sciences
Social Sciences Languages
11% 11%13% 14% 13%
43%
35%33%
43%
52%
24%21%
24%
29% 28%
Graduated in regular time (3 years) - general academic first B-degrees, excluding Unisa
Black White All
Source: Fisher and Scott, 2011
Effective Participation: Throughput rates of general academic first-B-degrees
Structure of the South African Education System (2010)Universities
986,559UG diplomas & certificates 285,948UG degrees 440,934Total undergraduates 726,882PG to M 80,321Masters 46,699Doctors 11,590 Total postgraduate 138,610Occasional students 27,444Total enrolment 892,936Private Universities 93,623
Universities
986,559UG diplomas & certificates 285,948UG degrees 440,934Total undergraduates 726,882PG to M 80,321Masters 46,699Doctors 11,590 Total postgraduate 138,610Occasional students 27,444Total enrolment 892,936Private Universities 93,623
FET Colleges
404,849N1 – N3 24,937N4 – N6 144,837NC(V) 130,039NSC 3,916Occupational 23,160Total Public 326,889 Private FET Colleges 77,960
FET Colleges
404,849N1 – N3 24,937N4 – N6 144,837NC(V) 130,039NSC 3,916Occupational 23,160Total Public 326,889 Private FET Colleges 77,960
Public and Independent Schools
12,644,208FET Band 2,460,961
GET Band 9,742,078
OTHER
7,441
Total
12,260,099
ECD
279,476
Special Schools
104,633
Public and Independent Schools
12,644,208FET Band 2,460,961
GET Band 9,742,078
OTHER
7,441
Total
12,260,099
ECD
279,476
Special Schools
104,633
Not in Education, Employment or Training (18 to 24 year olds)
2,781,185comprising persons with the following qualifications:B degree/ Masters/ PhD
11,552Gr 12 + dipl/cert
72,588Gr 12 with/without exemption
696,992Gr 10 less than Gr 12
990,794Less than Grade 10
1,009,259
Not in Education, Employment or Training (18 to 24 year olds)
2,781,185comprising persons with the following qualifications:B degree/ Masters/ PhD
11,552Gr 12 + dipl/cert
72,588Gr 12 with/without exemption
696,992Gr 10 less than Gr 12
990,794Less than Grade 10
1,009,259
Public ABET (2011)
312,077
Public ABET (2011)
312,077
South Africa and Brazil
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South Africa Higher Education and Post-Secondary Provisioning, 2010 Provisional Headcounts
Brazil Education, 2009
650 000
752 000
118 000
3 764 000
180 000
838 000
Public state (10%)
Public federal (12%)
Public municipal (2%)
Private Higher Education (60%)
Private PG (mainly business schools) (3%)
Distance (13%)
Contact Institutions Distance Provider Private
Students in system : 6 302 000Total population : 193 millionPrivate students : 63%Participation Rate : 35%
1 000 000
81 596
109 482
210 319
301 554
89 581
292 464
Knowledge Production – High (8%)
Knowledge Production – Medium (55%)
Knowledge Production – Low (19%)
Post-Secondary (10%)
Private Higher Education (8%)
NEET with Grade 12/ STD 10/ NTCIII (NEET's with matric)
Total: 594 018
Population: 49 000 000HE Participation rate: 17%White PR: 58%African PR: 13% Source: CHET
1993 1997 2001 2005 20090.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.60 0.60 0.59
0.57
0.54
0.67 0.670.69 0.68 0.68
Gini Coefficient - South Africa compared to Brazil
Brazil South Africa
Source: CHET
A low Gini coefficient indicates a more equal distribution of income or wealth, with 0 corresponding to perfect equality, while a higher Gini coefficient indicate more unequal distribution, with 1 corresponding to perfect inequality.
Knowledge Economy
Globally Central role of knowledge in government policies
Focus in Knowledge Policies on:
1. Global economic competitiveness2. Innovative capacity of societies3. High Level Skills and Competencies of Labour force (Knowledge workers)
Claus Swabe (WEF) Not Capitalism, but Talentism
International Knowledge Policies – Maassen
Starting point = New conditions in the global economyGrowing focus of national (regional – supranational) policy makersand other central socio-economic actors on the university as adriver for economic growth through its role as source for
innovationand job creation.
Consequence = Two new university governance aspectsFirst targeted policies for and investments in universities’ researchcapacity are assumed to be needed in order to improve the globalcompetitiveness of a specific economy. Second, targeted policies for and investments in connecting theenhanced research capacity of universities to the knowledge needsof society (incl. private and public sector companies andorganisations) in order to ensure the link of new knowledge toeconomic growth (innovation & new jobs ). «Balancing academic excellence with economic relevance»
HERANA: 8 African Countries and Flagship Universities
Higher Education Research and Advocacy Network in Africa • Starting point is to increase understanding of the complex links/interactions
between higher education and economic development – at national and institutional levels
• Three successful systems – Finland, South Korea and North Carolina (USA)• Eight African countries and their national universities: Botswana, Ghana,
Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, South Africa (Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University/UCT), Tanzania, Uganda
• Network consists of 50 people from 15 countries, include Manuel Castells, Peter Maassen (Oslo) John Douglas (Berkeley) and Pundy Pillay (Wits)
Funded by: Ford, Carnegie, Rockefeller, Kresge and Norad
Findings from Three Successful Systems
Finland, South Korea, North Carolina (USA)• As part of reorganising their ‘mode of production’, a pact was reached about a
knowledge economy (high skills and innovation) as development driver • Close links between economic and education planning• High participation rates with differentiation• Strong ‘state’ steering (projects)• Higher education linked to regional development• Responsive to the labour market• Strong coordination (prime ministers office) and networks
Pundy Pillay (2010) Linking higher education to economic development: Implications for Africa from three successful systems (CHET)
HERANA Findings on 8 African Countries and Flagship Universities
1. There is a lack of agreement (pact) between national and university stakeholders about a development model, and about the role of higher education in development
2. Only one of the eight countries (Mauritius) has accepted knowledge, and the associated human capital and research development, as a key driver for economic growth
3. Linking higher education to development requires considerable coordination within government, and between government, the university and external funders, and all three must contribute
4. The absence of a pact about the role of the university in development affects negatively implementation and resource allocation – which raises the possibility that we a have double problem; lack of capacity and a lack of agreement
23
New policy responses currently underway
• New policy frenzy reminiscent of 1995
• Economic, environment, labour and even constitution
• Focus on:
– National planning Commission
– DHET Green Paper
• Focus on knowledge policies, participation and differentiation
24
National Planning Commission (Nov 2011): Functions of HE (1)
25
Higher education is the major driver of the information-knowledge system, linking it with economic development...Universities are key to developing a nation. They play three main functions in society:
Firstly, they educate and train people with high-level skills for the employment needs of the public and private sectors.
Secondly, universities are the dominant producers of new knowledge, and they critique information and find new local and global applications for existing knowledge. Universities also set norms and standards, determine the curriculum, languages and knowledge, ethics and philosophy underpinning a nation's knowledge-capital. South Africa needs knowledge that equips people for a society in constant social change
NPC: Functions (2)
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"Thirdly, given the country's apartheid history, higher education provides opportunities for social mobility and simultaneously strengthens equity, social justice and democracy. In today's knowledge society, higher education underpinned by a strong science and technology innovation system is increasingly important in opening up people's opportunities." (p262)
For the first time knowledge production and equity are linked by stating that "high quality knowledge production cannot be fully realized with a low student participation rate" (p274).
Also universities are not mainly fro individual mobility or for equity redress - equity is mentioned last and transformation
in the Castells sense
NPC: Knowledge Enthusiasm
27
The NPC is so enthusiastic about knowledge that it declares that "knowledge production is the rationale of higher education" (p271) - indeed a radical departure from the traditional 'rationale' of higher education in Africa, that is, disseminating (teaching) knowledge from somewhere else.
Posters outside Parliament for Thursday’s State of the Nation:Knowledge Economy and Development Opportunities. At ANC 100th Zuma said: “Education and skills are the key priority
for our people”These are huge steps away from HE as individual mobility and an
equity instrument – but in State of Nation President announced the biggest infrastructure project in history – not a word of KE
NPC Knowledge Policies
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1. the notion of knowledge production consists of a combination of PhD education and research output.
2. a target of tripling the number of doctoral gradates from 1,420 to 5,000 per annum, and increasing the proportion of academic staff with PhDs from 34% to 75%
3. a number of world-class centres and programmes should be developed within the national system of innovation and the higher education sector.
4. a new future scholars programme needs to be developed, both to increase the proportion of staff with PhDs and to meet the increasing demand for professional PhDs in the non-university research, financial and services sectors
5. role of science councils should be reviewed in light of the world-wide tendency to align, or merge, research councils with universities
NPC: Differentiation
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1. deals with the worldwide policy debate about the concentration of resources by proposing world-class centers and programmes across institutions (High science - Ska)
2. advises the Ministerial Committee for the Review of the Funding of Universities that such revisions should be based on the needs of a differentiated system with adequate provision for both teaching and research
3. requires flexible pathways for student mobility between institutions
4. the Higher Education Quality Committee should finally start developing a core set of quality indicators for the whole system;
Differentiation: Key Issues
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1. Differentiation a process – diversity and hierarchy
2. Concentration:
• Institutions – world class/underclass
• Programmes – skills
• Institutional profiles – faculties
• Special centers/networks - (High science - Ska), Networks, Institutes
DHET Green Paper
31
Research and innovation1. Economic depends on innovation and technology absorption2. While investment in research has tripled, there has not been a
commensurate increase in personnel3. Total knowledge output has increased 64% (2000-2009) but the
system must become more productive 4. Poverty is a significant constraint on masters and Phd studies –
students under pressure to obtain jobs??5. Drastically increase number and quality of masters and PhD’s 6. Need for increased coordination between DHET and DST7. Caliber and workload of academic staff must be addressed8. Long term plan for renewing the academic profession -
doctorates for academics and professions
Ministers Presentation to HESA (3 April 2012)
32
ResearchThe research output of 2010, 57% of accredited research in the
sector takes place at five institutions. These are all institutions with a historical research focus. In contrast with this, less that 10% of total research takes place at another eleven institutions. These eleven includes all Universities of Technology and many of the previously disadvantaged institutions.
When looking closely at these eleven institutions, output per staff member is the lowest here and that, in general, the percentage of staff with Doctoral qualifications is also the lowest.
Ministers Presentation to HESA (3 April 2012)
33
Research The fact is that Government cannot afford to develop all higher
education institutions to become research intensive. Our institutions have different missions and agendas, and rightly so. It is, therefore, important for institutions to identify their mission and develop their strengths accordingly.
This does not exclude institutions from engaging in research at all. All universities must conduct research. It is only the nature and quantity of research that will differ.
It would not benefit society if research were to be developed to the detriment of quality teaching and learning.
NPC and DHET: The Good, the Bad and the Incomprehensible
34
1. Differentiation (whatever form) is official 2. Knowledge production (PhD and research output must increase – different
counts of research outputs) – at last recognising the knowledge producing role of the university
3. Big focus on doctorate – for academics (target more than 60%), professions research councils and other sectors (finance)
4. Good quality undergraduate education – including infrastructure funds for labs, libraries, housing
5. Improvement of through put – efficiency 6. Dramatic increase in participation rate – mainly in FET sector7. Mission and profile differentiation8. Improved Coordination between DSHT and DHET (HESA meeting)9. More funding for higher education 10.Shift from Transformation to Development
China Mexico Denmark India Korea South Africa
Japan Australia Poland United Kingdom
United States
Canada Germany Hungary-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
40.0%
17.1%
10.0%8.5%
7.1% 6.4% 6.2% 6.2% 6.1% 5.2%
2.5%1.0% 0.0%
-2.2%
The rise of doctorates
Source: Nature. International weekly journal in Science
Major expansion of higher education has boosted PhD output in many countries, shown here as average annual growth of doctoral degrees across all disciplines. 1998 - 2006
Botswana Makerere Eduardo Mondlane
Ghana *Mauritius Nairobi Dar es Salaam
NMMU University of Cape Town
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
187 2996
648
1,103931
674
1,759
6,080
34 126 0 83 47 163 90 203
854
HERANA - Total PhD enrolled and total PhD graduates, 2001 - 2007
* Mauritius enroll large numbers of students as MPhil students, and depending on their performance only some graduate as PhD students
Graph 1 offers summaries for the 15-year period 1996-2010. Doctoral enrolments were 1.3% of national total of 893 000 students in 2010.
Summary of high-level inputs and outputs
37
5164 55286394
77638790
9800 9939
11468
685 761 961 969 1104 1100 1182
1421
5622 5456 59366483 6660
8003 8353
9748
13449 1309814184
1467315423 15809 15936
16684
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Doctoral enrolments Doctoral graduates Research publications Permanent academics
Permanent academics
Doctoral enrolmentsResearch publications
Doctoral graduates
Graph 4 shows how the % of doctoral enrolments by race group changed between 1996 to 2010. African doctoral students rose from 13% in 1996 to 33% in 2004, and 44% in 2010.
Percentage of doctoral enrolments in race groupings
38
13%
25%
33%41%
44%
78%
62%
55%
49%
42%
9%
13% 12% 10%14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1996 2000 2004 2008 2010
African White Coloured +Indian
AfricanWhite
Coloured+Indian
Enrolments South African International Total
2007 7 195 2 853 10 0482008 6 959 3 035 9 9942009 7 213 3 316 10 5292010 7 841 3 749 11 590
2007 2008 2009 201011%
12%
13%
14%
15%
13%12%
13%
12%
13%
12%
14%
13%
South African PhD students graduation rate by nationality
South African International
Gra
du
ati
on
Rate
Graduates South AfricanInternationa
l Total2007 900 374 1 2742008 829 353 1 1822009 908 470 1 3782010 931 489 1 420
2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
77% 75% 74% 72% 67%
23% 25% 26% 28% 33%
Norwegian Universities - PhD graduates by nationality
Norwegian International
Graduates Norwegian International Total2007 789 241 10302008 937 308 12452009 851 297 11482010 858 326 11842011 889 438 1327
2007 2008 2009 20100%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
71% 70% 66% 66%
29% 30% 34% 34%
South African Universities – PhD graduates by nationality
South African International
It is important to note that the two countries produce almost the same number
of PhD graduates but that South Africa’s population is in the order of 48 million
whilst Norway’s population is 4.8 million