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INVESTOR PRESENTATION Financial year 2013 May 28, 2013

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Page 1: Hindalco Industries Ltd Board Meetingalphaideas.in/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Hindalco... · Global Economy: Recovery still elusive 5 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 n-11 r-11

INVESTOR PRESENTATION

Financial year 2013

May 28, 2013

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Structure of the Presentation

2

Performance Review - Aluminium

Highlights

Performance Review - Copper

Gearing for the Future

Projects update

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FY 2013 : HIGHLIGHTS

3

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FY13: Major stepping stone on our strategic

path

4

Key Greenfield projects, which shall redefine our competitive

edge, taken to the last lap

Indian business’ VAP strategy solidified with Hirakud FRP and

Mouda Foils projects

Robustness of conversion businesses vindicated yet again in a

challenging macro environment

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Global Economy: Recovery still elusive

5

46.0

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

Jan

-11

Ap

r-1

1

Jul-

11

Oct-

11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-1

2

Jul-

12

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Global Manufacturing PMI

Equity markets have been enthusiastic recently, powered by

unprecedented support from all major Central Banks

Commodity markets, however, are cautious as

manufacturing growth remains frail

450

470

490

510

530

550

570

590

CRB Commodity Index)

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FY13 Consolidated : Highlights

6

Aluminium segment: Margin compression in Indian business

largely compensated for by Novelis’ steady performance

Copper segment: Robust show by conversion business in India

and Nifty mines; decline largely due to losses at MGO and due

to Smelter shut down in Q1

Projects : Upstream - Utkal, Mahan, Hirakud expansion under

commissioning, Downstream - Hirakud FRP, Pinda (Brazil),

Mouda – Foils - Commissioned , Rest progressing well

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FY13: Consolidated Results

7

PBITDA maintained at last year’s level despite challenges

across Businesses

Higher interest burden led to a drop in PBT and PAT

` Cr FY13 FY12 Change

(%)

Net Sales 80,193 80,821 (0.8)

PBITDA 8,849 8,967 (1.3)

Interest 2,079 1,758 18.3

Depreciation 2,861 2,864 (0.1)

PBT 3,909 4,345 (10.0)

PAT 3,027 3,397 (10.9)

EPS (`) 15.81 17.74 (10.9)

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FY13: Standalone Results

8

` Cr FY13 FY12 Change

(%)

Net Sales 26,057 26,597 (2.0)

EBITDA 2,204 3,105 (29.0)

PBITDA 3,187 3,721 (14.3)

PBT 2,047 2,737 (25.2)

PAT 1,699 2,237 (24.0)

EPS (`) 8.88 11.69

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Standalone Q4: Sharp sequential

improvement..

` Cr Q4 FY13 Q3 FY13 Change

(%, sequential)

Q4 FY12

Net Sales 6,994 6,872 1.8 7,647

EBITDA 643 582 10.5 865

Other

Income 231 318 (27.4) 161

PBITDA 874 900 (2.9) 1,025

PBT 544 543 0.2 779

PAT 482 434 11.2 640

EPS (`) 2.52 2.26 3.34

9 Significant improvement in sequential performance in the face of

challenging environment…

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10

EBITDA TREND (Rs. Crore)

Sequential Growth in Sales, EBITDA and EBITDA

Margin

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PERFORMANCE REVIEW: ALUMINIUM

11

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LME at unsustainably depressed levels

12

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

Aluminium LME ($/t)

Global inventory ~96

days

Capacity operating at

loss:

31% in China,

18% outside China

Closures of high-cost capacities essential to restore balance

The trend has started…..

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FY13 Highlights: Aluminium

13

Aluminium (India): Compression of margins

Margins fell due to adverse macro factors, but still best among the peers

Operational improvements in H2 after one-time setbacks in H1

Strong progress on projects

Novelis: Solid results despite unexpected headwinds

Adj. EBITDA of $961 Mn – affected by pricing pressures and production

disruptions

Record capex spend; Increased recycling rate , Brazil expansion within time

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Al (India) Highlights: FY13

Existing operations have stabilized after setbacks in H1

Sequential improvement in margins in both Q3 and Q4

14

Strong recovery in H2

VAP capabilities strengthened with commissioning of Hirakud

FRP and Mouda Foils projects

Downstream volumes grow despite lower metal availability

Greenfield Projects - Strong Progress

Mahan – First Metal tapped

Utkal – Under commissioning

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Al: Steady improvement in Operational

Performance

15

Metal Output (kt)

132 128

139 142

Q1 FY13 Q2 FY13 Q3 FY13 Q4 FY13

With stabilization of smelter operations in H2, volumes improved…..

FY13 metal volume was, however, 6% down at 542 kt

VAP tonnage increased

from 245 kt in FY12 to

255 kt in FY13

VAP proportion up

from 43% to 47%

Hydrate/Alumina sale up

4% to 281 kt

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Three key factors affected profitability in

FY13

16

Weak LME

Input Cost

Pressures

H1 Smelter

Disruptions Nearly 30 kt volume lost and

efficiencies suffered .. Now normalcy

has returned

Costs of key inputs like coal,

caustic soda and furnace oil

were higher in FY13 than FY12

by 10-30%

FY12 FY13

$ /t 2,317 1,976

`/Kg 111.0 107.3

In addition certain other one offs such as bauxite related issues, water

shortage at Muri, Heavy rains at Hirakud also impacted operations

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Al: Financial Performance

17

Quarterly Trend

Q1

FY13

Q2

FY13

Q3

FY13

Q4

FY13

2,062 2,105 2,215 2,396

Net Sales (` Crore)

Q1

FY13

Q2

FY13

Q3

FY13

Q4

FY13

270

170 206

284

EBIT (` Crore)

Up 39%

qoq

FY13 Performance

FY13

FY12

8779

9041

Net Sales (` Cr)

FY13

FY12

930

1822

EBIT (` Cr)

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Novelis: FY13 Actions on Strategy

Major Rolling Expansions progressing well

Commissioned new cold mill at Pinda Plant in Brazil

Broke ground on automotive heat treatment line in China

CAPTURE GROWTH IN OUR FRP MARKETS

Major Recycling expansions progressing well

Commissioned Yeongju, the Largest Fully-Integrated Beverage Can

Recycling System in Asia

Broke Ground on Fully-Integrated Recycling Center in Europe

Exited Evermore, Established North America UBC Procurement

Organization

80% RECYCLED CONTENT IN OUR PRODUCTS BY 2020

Divested 3 foil plants in Europe

Closed Saguenay Plant in Canada

Shut down Ouro Preto potline in Brazil

Implemented ERP system in 2 North American Plants

CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE BUSINESS

18

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Novelis Highlights: FY13

Q4 had a strong comeback - Adj. EBITDA up 30% sequentially

to $240 Mn

Record Capex of $775 Mn in FY13 for strategically directed

future growth projects

Solid Liquidity of $760 Mn despite aggressive capex

Shipments down 2% in FY13 due to divestment of three foil

plants in Europe and production disruptions in North America

Recycling rate up from 39% in FY12 to 43% in FY13

Adjusted EBITDA for FY13 down 9% to $961 Mn due to pricing

pressures in certain regions and other one-offs

19

Strong results despite headwinds

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PERFORMANCE REVIEW: COPPER

20

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Cu: Key External Drivers

21

FY13 vs.

FY12 Impact

TCRC Nearly flat

LME ($/t) -7%

Exch. Rate (`/$) +13%

Acid Price Significantly lower

DAP Subsidy lower

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FY13 Highlights: Copper (India)

22

Copper (India): Robust performance

Financial performance maintained overcoming the weakness in co-

product markets in H2 & loss of production in H1

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Cu: Production Performance

Cathode output declined from 330 kt in FY12 to 315 kt in FY13

(5%) due to plant health issues in Cu-III

23

69 77

84 85

Q1 FY13 Q2 FY13 Q3 FY13 Q4 FY13

Output has improved sequentially

in every quarter of FY13

CCR output maintained, improving

product-mix

CCR proportion up from 44.5% in

FY12 to 46.3% in FY13

Cathode (kt)

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Cu: Financial Performance

24

Quarterly Trend

Q1

FY13

Q2

FY13

Q3

FY13

Q4

FY13

3,967 4,066 4,661 4,607

Net Sales (` Crore)

Q1

FY13

Q2

FY13

Q3

FY13

Q4

FY13

76

209 225 259

EBIT (` Crore)

Up 15%

qoq

FY13 Performance

FY13

FY12

17305

17575

Net Sales (` Cr)

FY13

FY12

768

802

EBIT (` Cr)

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25%

55%

34%

59% 16%

45%

66%

C.E

EBIT

SALES

Aluminium Greenfield Copper

Segmental – FY 13

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25%

52%

34%

59% 16%

48%

66%

C.E

EBIT

SALES

Aluminium Greenfield Copper

Segmental – Q4 FY 13

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UPDATE ON STRATEGIC PROJECTS

27

Our growth ambitions assuming shape & structure

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Projects – Wave-I on ground …

28

2009

We started implementing an ambitious $5.5 Bn Greenfield Capex programme

to:

Build best-in-the-class, ‘Last Man Standing’ assets

Raise metal capacity to 2.3x (0.6 Mn ton to 1.3 Mn ton)

Double alumina capacity (1.5 Mn ton to 3 Mn ton)

2013

Trial production started in Mahan and Utkal; Aditya smelter to follow in H2

Mahan Utkal Aditya H’kud

FRP Mouda

Foils

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Mahan: First Metal Out; Trial production

started (Apr’13)

First Metal Poured

29

Mahan Complex Staff accommodation

Anode Rodding

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Utkal Alumina: Under Commissioning

Bauxite grinding mill

Bauxite Conveyor

30

Mud Washing: Flocculent Unit

CPP: Unit 1 ready

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Aditya Aluminium: Progressing well

Power House Pot Room

Cast House Furnace

31

Around 11,000 people at

site

220KV line completed and

charged

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Hirakud Brownfield Expansion

New 235 KA Pots Power Plant – New Unit

32

Stage-wise commissioning started

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Novelis: Solidifying Leadership Position

33

United States

~200kt Mid CY13

Korea

~350kt Mid CY13

China

~120kt End CY14 Brazil

~220kt Dec. 2012

Commissioned

Rolling Capacity Expansion

Automotive Finishing Line(s)

~190kt

End CY13

~400kt

Mid CY14

~265kt

Oct. 2012

Germany

Recycling Expansions

Growth Plans tailored for secular

industry trends

516

775

FY12 FY13

Capex ($ Mn)

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Novelis: Projects progressing well

Pinda: Commissioned Dec’12

Germany Recycling Project: project

team on first pillar (Mar’13)

34

Auto finishing line in the US

Korea Cold Mill

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GEARING FOR THE FUTURE

35

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Aluminium – Strong Growth Prospects

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

World Aluminium Consumption (kt)

CAGR 2.7%

CAGR 5.0%

Consumption growth multiple (1990-2010) vis-à-vis GDP growth

Al

2.5

Cu

1.8

Zn

1.7

Ni

1.6

2010 2016

41 mn t

61 mn t

Projected Consumption Growth

CAGR

6.7%

_____________________

Source: Published reports

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LONG-TERM TRENDS IN ALUMINUM DEMAND

Beverage Can Automotive Specialties

~4-5% ~25% ~6%

Long-term CAGR (CY12-17)

Strong Long-Term Growth in Premium Products

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Industry dynamics & Hindalco

38

Robust Strategy ..Strong Outlook

Resource challenges are likely

to continue into the long-term

Growth strategy based on

access to proximate resources

even more relevant than in the

past

Inventory overhang and its

effects are transient; but may

continue for a while

Pressure on margins for

existing facilities will continue;

But de-risked portfolio will

provide a cushion

Long-term prospects are bright Our investments shall deliver

strong returns

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Thank you

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Certain statements in this report may be “forward looking statements” within the meaning of applicable securities laws and regulations. Actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied. Important factors that could make a difference to the company’s operations include global and Indian demand supply conditions, finished goods prices, feed stock availability and prices, cyclical demand and pricing in the company’s principal markets, changes in Government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the company conducts business and other factors such as litigation and labour negotiations. The company assume no responsibility to publicly amend, modify or revise any forward looking statement, on the basis of any subsequent development, information or events, or otherwise.

Forward Looking & Cautionary Statement

40