Separating Hindsight Bias from Priming

Hindsight Bias and Priming:Two Designs, Two ResultsRagav Kumar and Daniel M. Bernstein

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Think about what percentage of people would be able tocorrectly identify the distorted word, assuming they hadnot seen the clear version first.Think about what percentage of people would be able tocorrectly identify the distorted word.Hindsight BiasInability to take nave perspective from before you received informationPrimingExposure to a stimulus affects response to a later stimulus

Just listen, for now.Think about what percentage of people would be able tocorrectly identify the distorted word.OverlapHindsight Bias stimulus might just be a prime

Difference in instructionsExperimentsExperiment 1: Between Subjects

Experiment 2: Within SubjectsMethod: Experiments 1Study PhasePriming: 0, 1, 3, 6 times

Test PhaseIgnorant IdentificationIgnorant EstimationHindsight Estimation FlashcardsHypothesesIgnorant estimates would increase as number of primes increased

Hindsight estimates would not increase with the number of primesExpected ResultsExperiment 1: Between SubjectsIgnorant EstimationHindsight EstimationIgnorant IdentificationHypotheses - RevisitedIgnorant estimates would increase as number of primes increased

Hindsight estimates would not increase with the number of primes

Experiment 2: Within SubjectsWithin Subjects replication of Experiment 1

Allows direct examination of Hindsight Bias and PrimingMethod: Experiment 2Priming: 0, 1, 3, 6 times

Test (Counter-balanced)Ignorant EstimationHindsight Estimation FlashcardsHypothesesGreater estimates overall in hindsight condition

Interaction between Hindsight Bias and primingExpected Results: ReplicationExperiment 2 Results (N=42)No Interaction?!Hypotheses - RevisitedGreater estimates in hindsight condition

Interaction between hindsight bias and priming

ConclusionsHindsight Bias is the same thing as Priming?Conflicting results

Study Design seems to be a factorLimitations and Follow-upsWhy is there a difference between designs?Methodological Issues

Follow-up: Improved Re-run

Questions?

FluencyEase of processing information

Perceptual

Conceptual

Results Between Subjects, Words (Full)Results Between Subjects, NonwordsResults Within Subjects, Nonwords (N=38)