historic descent or global civilization? expert group meeting un headquarters november 19, 2007...
TRANSCRIPT
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Historic Descent or Global Civilization?
Expert Group MeetingUN Headquarters
November 19, 2007
Climate, Development, and Planetary Transition
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Time
Indicators of development
Stabilization
Take-off
Acceleration
Phases of Transition
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Historical Transitions
Early Civilization c. 10,000 years
20,000 10,000 0 Years Before Present
Planetary Phasec. 100 years ?
Modern Erac. 1,000 years
Stone Age c. 100,000 yearsC
ompl
exit
y
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Accelerated Transitions
105 104 103 102
Years Before Present
Stone Age
Early Civilization
Modern Era
Planetary Phase
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105 104 103 102
Years Before Present
Tribe
City-state
Nation
Planet
Social Organization
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105 104 103 102
Years Before Present
Hunting & gathering
Settled agriculture
Industrial capitalism
Economic Basis
Globalization
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105 104 103 102
Years Before Present
Language
Writing
Printing
Internet
Communication
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Glo
bal C
onne
ctiv
ity
1950 2000 2050
Take-off 1980-
Planetary Transition
Global environmental changeInformation technologyCollapse of USSR, hegemony of capitalismWTO, multinationals, “Davos Man” Earth Summit, NGOs, “Seattle Woman”
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Branch PointsBranch Points
SCENARIOS
Sources of Uncertainty
•Ignorance
•Surprise
•Volition
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An Integrated View
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Conventional Worlds
Barbarization Great Transitions
Global Scenarios
policy reform
market forces
breakdown
fortress world
new sustainability
eco-communalism
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Risky Bequest
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Barbarization
Environment
Inequity
Resentment
Conflict
Xenophobia
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Bending the CurvePeace
2060
Majo
r C
onflic
ts
1980
30
2020
Freedom
2060
Soci
al Equit
y
1980
1
2020
Development
20601980
1 billion
2020
Hunger
20601980
CO
2(p
pm
)
550
2020
300
2060
4.5 billion
20201980
Fore
sts
(ha)
320601980
5 billion
2020People
in s
tress
Climate Ecosystems Water
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Limits of the Reform PathPolicy Reform is feasible, in principle – the necessary technologies and policies are available
But daunting, in practice – gradually bending highly unsustainable trends imposes immense challenges
The critical uncertainty – where would the political will come from?
Reform may not be enough…..
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New Sustainability Paradigm
•Quality of life
•Human solidarity
•Ecological sensibility
A values-led scenario
A pluralistic scenario
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Proximate and Ultimate Drivers
Ultimate Drivers
Knowledge and Understanding
Power Structure
CultureValues and Needs
Proximate Drivers
Population Economy Technology Governance
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Tools for Transitions
Market Forces
Policy Reform
Great Transition
well-beingconsumption
throughput
dematerialization wedge
dematerialization wedge
lifestyle wedge
rich
poor
poverty spring
equity magnet
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Dimensions of Transition
ValuesKnowledge
Demographic
Social
Economic
Governance
Technology
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Change Agents
Intergovernmental
organizations
Transnational corporationsCivil society
An aware and engaged public
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The future is always present, as a promise and a lure. Karl Popper
Which worlddo we want?