Historical Essays on Meteorology 1919-1995

The Diamond Anniversary History Volume

of the American Meteorological Society

edited by

James Rodger Fleming

Boston American Meteorological Society

1996

©Copyright 1996 by the American Meteorological Society.

Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this book in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided the source is acknowledged. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher.

The American Meteorological Society 45 Beacon St. Boston, MA 02108

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Historical Essays on Meteorology, 1919-1995 Edited by James Rodger Fleming Foreword by Warren M. Washington (The diamond anniversary history volume of the American Meteorological Society) p. 618 em.

1. Meteorology-History 2. Atmospheric science-History

CIP 96-83535

The paper used in this book meets the minimum requirements of American National Standard for Information Sciences-Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI Z39.48-1984.

ISBN 978-1-940033-84-6 (eBook)DOI 10.1007/978-1-940033-84-6

Contents

Foreword-Warren M. Washington Acknowledgments Introduction-James R. Fleming

Dynamic Meteorology and Numerical Weather Prediction

v lX

XI

1. The Evolution of Dynamic Meteorology 3 Edward N. Lorenz

2. The Origin and Rise of Numerical Weather Prediction 21 George P. Cressman

Observational Tools and Computational Devices

3. The Evolution of Atmospheric Measurement Systems Robert J. Serafin

4. A Short History of Radar Meteorology R.R. Rogers and P.L. Smith

5. Evolution of Satellite Observations in the United States and Their Use in Meteorology James F.W. Purdom and W. Paul Menzel

6. A History of Calculating Aids in Meteorology Frederik Nebeker

Cloud Microphysics and Dynamics 7. Formation of Rain: A Historical Perspective

Roscoe R. Braham Jr.

43

57

99

157

181

8. A History of Research in Cloud Dynamics and Microphysics 225 Harold D. Orville

Hurricanes, Convective Storms, and Lightning 9. A History of Hurricane Forecasting for the Atlantic Basin,

1920-1995 263 Mark DeMaria

10. Severe Convective Storms: A Brief History of Science and Practice Kenneth C. Crawford and Edwin Kessler

11. 7 5 Years of Research on the Physics of a Lightning Discharge E. Philip Krider

Climatology and Hydrology 12. Steps in the Evolution of Climatology:

307

321

From Descriptive to Analytic 353 John E. Kutzbach

13. Applied Climatology: A Glorious Past, an Uncertain Future 379 Stanley A. Changnon

14. Hydrology in the Twentieth Century 395 Edwin T. Engman

The Private Sector 15. A History of Private Sector Meteorology 417

David B. Spiegler

16. A History of Aeronautical Meteorology: Personal Perspectives, 1903-1995 443 Gordon D. Cartwright and Charles H. Sprinkle

17. The American Meteorological Society and the Development of Broadcast Meteorology 481 Roy Leep

Education 18. From Geo- to Physical Science: Meteorology

and the American University, 1919-1945 511 William A. Koelsch

19. Meteorology Education in the United States after 1945 541 David D. Houghton

Special Essays 20. Historical Writing on Meteorology:

An Annotated Bibliography James R. Fleming and Simone L. Kaplan

21. Historical Photo Gallery Julie A. Burba

Notes on Contributors

Index

557

581

597

613

Foreword

As part of its 75th Anniversary, the American Meteorological So­ciety (AMS) initiated a history book. This volume of essays chronicles achievements in the field of meteorology in many specialized areas, including basic and applied research, the private sector, and education. From the beginning, the society appealed to a wide spectrum of inter­ests. In addition to meteorologists (both professional and amateur), the membership included people involved in the practical applications of weather and climate information to business, commerce, and agricul­ture. That tradition remains today. The first issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) captured this sentiment when it noted that the birth of the AMS, "marked the beginning of a movement not only to push forward investigations of weather pro­cesses and climate conditions, but also to widen the valuable applica­tions of the knowledge already at hand ... into almost every line of human endeavor." As this history book well demonstrates, the founders were futuristic. Meteorology has strongly progressed, both as a basic and applied science and as a major influence in the develop­ment of electronic computing, remote sensing, and aviation technolo­gies. Information about weather and climate has also found its way into every sector of the economy. "Surely, the applications of meteo­rology are manifold" (BAMS 1, 1920, 1).

The AMS has grown from about 600 members at its beginning to approximately 11 000 at the present. The society, through its extensive committee structure, meetings and publications programs, and helpful headquarters staff, has also grown in terms of its service to the mem­bers. There are many significant milestones that could be mentioned; among the most significant are the following.

• 1919-1920: The AMS was organized on 29 December 1919 at a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in St. Louis, Missouri. It was incorporated three weeks later, on 21 January 1920, in Washington, D.C. The original

v

vi HISTORICAL ESSAYS ON METEOROLOGY

constitution and by-laws are quite similar to today's, providing for different grades of membership, the election of officers, the governing Council, the meeting structure, the publications, and the various committees. The first volume of BAMS was pub­lished in 1920 to keep the society informed of new developments. (See BAMS 26, 1945, 163-170.)

• 1938: The awards program began with the Clarence Leroy Meis­inger Award.

• 1944: The society was reorganized to give increased emphasis to being a scientific, professional organization. This was under­taken by presidents C.-G. Rossby and H.G. Houghton. As part of the process of professionalization the Journal of Meteorology was initiated.

• 1946: Because of the rapid growth of the field during and after World War II, the society required a formal directorate to coor­dinate its many activities. This was established in Boston with Ken Spengler as the first executive secretary.

• 1950-1951: Meteorological Abstracts and Bibliography was started under the editorship of Malcom Rigby with the purpose of making available citations to all the literature in meteorology and related fields. In 1951 the Compendium of Meteorology was published by a committee chaired by H. G. Houghton. The editor was Tom Malone, who stated that the purpose was to "take stock of the present position of meteorology . . . and to indicate the avenues of further study and research which needed to be ex­plored in order to extend the frontiers of our knowledge."

• 1957: The Certified Consulting Meteorologist program was es­tablished as was the AMS Seal of Approval for broadcast mete­orologists.

• 1959: The Glossary of Meteorology was published to standardize the definitions of terms used in the field. A new version of the Glossary is currently being prepared by the society.

• 1960: The AMS moved into their historic home at 45 Beacon Street, overlooking Boston Common. The house was designed by Charles Bulfinch, architect of the Massachusetts State House and the Capitol Building in Washington, D.C. It was originally the residence of Harrison Gray Otis, who served as mayor of Boston and then as a U.S. senator. The society raised funds from its members to help renovate the building and restore it to its

FOREWORD Vll

former elegance. (See BAMS 41, 1960, 507-517 and BAMS 62, 1981, 493-497). The society was further reorganized under the leadership of president T. Malone with the initial draft prepared by P.D. McTaggart-Cowan. Committee and commission struc­tures were revamped to keep the society in step with the times. By 1968, Council membership was expanded to allow for repre­sentation from hydrology, aeronomy, and oceanography.

• 1962: The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences and the Journal of Applied Meteorology were formed from the Journal of Meteo­rology.

• 1964-1965: The Council developed a series of extensive educa­tion programs including films, popular books, a visiting foreign scientist program, career guidance materials, support for sci­ence fairs, and a special program to introduce high school stu­dents to the field. A year later a curriculum guide for students in the atmospheric sciences was developed. This guide is still being published biannually (now in conjunction with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research), and educational out­reach programs are still a prominent part of AMS.

• 1971-1988: The Journal of Physical Oceanography was estab­lished in 1971, and the hundred-year-old Monthly Weather Re­view was converted from a government publication to an AMS journal in 197 4. The growth of AMS journals continued in the 1980s with the addition of the Journal of Atmospheric and Oce­anic Technology (1984), Weather and Forecasting (1986), and the Journal of Climate (1988). In 1988 Richard Hallgren became the society's second executive director.

The essays in this 75th anniversary history book do not focus on the history of the AMS. Rather, they concern the overall intellectual and institutional development of meteorology in the twentieth century. They constitute a rich sampling of what has been learned, where we stand, and where we might be going-in research, in education, and in the private sector. Each was written by a recognized authority in the field. The AMS was fortunate to obtain the editorship of James R. Fleming for the 75th Anniversary history volume. His professional background in the history of science and technology contributed both rigor and clarity to the historical essays. He has worked closely with the contributors to help tie the chapters together and make the various

viii HisTORICAL EssAYS oN METEOROLOGY

historical aspects more accurate. As you read this book, keep in mind that this is a book of meteorological discovery and innovation. Impor­tant factors for continued discovery and innovation are to be found in understanding the history of our field. Historical Essays on Meteorol­ogy, 1919-1995, The Diamond Anniversary Volume of the American Meteorological Society, is a welcome addition to that history, and the AMS is proud to sponsor it.

Warren M. Washington President of the American Meteorological Society, 1994

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Many people were involved in producing a book such as this. Spe­cial thanks are due Richard Hallgren, executive director of AMS; War­ren Washington, president of AMS in 1994; and the members of the Council who supported this project from beginning to end. I also thank the AMS Committee on the History of the Atmospheric Sciences, chaired by Professor Robert Fleagle, and the program chairs of the individual conferences for inviting speakers to the AMS diamond an­niversary meeting and for generating an enormous amount of goodwill and enthusiasm for the book project. Appreciation is due each of the individual authors and their support networks for their perseverance and goodwill through the editorial process.

Friends a tAMS-Ken Spengler, Evelyn Mazur, and Barry Mohan­provided valuable support and encouragement for this project, as did William Kellogg, the new chair of the Committee on the History of the Atmospheric Sciences.

Preparation of the manuscript was facilitated by Alice Ridky, Bev­erly Eaton, and my research students Simone Kaplan and Amy Lyons at Colby College. The volume's final form is a result of my hard-work­ing and most professional colleagues in the publications department at AMS-Keith Seitter, Melissa Weston, Marianne Simas-Valcich, Patri­cia English, Irwin Abrams, Gary Gorski, and Julie Burba.

I would be remiss if I failed to acknowledge the sacrifices made by my wife Miyoko and my sons Jamitto and Jason while I was preoccu­pied with manuscript and pencil.

Introduction

It has been my privilege, honor,-and challenge!-to serve the American Meteorological Society (AMS) as editor of its 75th anniver­sary history volume. The Society was fortunate to engage a number of eminent pioneers and leading practitioners to write about the fields they helped develop. They were joined by several professional histori­ans of science and technology. The resulting book, Historical Essays on Meteorology, 1919-1995, constitutes a substantial sampling of what has been learned since 1919 in the atmospheric sciences and services. 1

The volume is not complete in its coverage-no such collection is. No book in history is ever granted the status of being considered the last word on a subject; rather, it is sufficient if some consider it the latest word. I sincerely believe that these 20 essays accomplish this goal and constitute important benchmark contributions to the history of the atmospheric sciences. The historical foreword by Warren Wash­ington and the photographic essay compiled by Julie Burba at AMS Headquarters also serve to enhance the book's value. This volume should be of interest to weather professionals and enthusiasts, to his­torians of science, and to students of science and history. It will help us calibrate where we are, where we have been, and where we might be going as a discipline. Hopefully it will inspire others to value the past and to dig into it more deeply.

These historical essays are meant to celebrate-without being overly celebratory-a period of disciplinary formation and remarkable growth in the field of meteorology; an era of expanding theoretical, observational, and institutional horizons; an era in large part shaped and documented by the organizational activities of the American Me­teorological Society.

1Many of the essays in this book were originally presented at the AMS diamond anni­versary meeting in Dallas in January 1995. Tapes of many of the speeches are available through AMS.

Xl

Xll HISTORICAL ESSAYS ON METEOROLOGY

Dynamic meteorology and numerical weather prediction

The book begins with a lucid account by Ed Lorenz of"The Evolution of Dynamic Meteorology." Lorenz discusses his own first exposure to the subject in 1942 from his teacher Bernhard Haurwitz. He traces the evolution of dynamic meteorology as a "new species of investigation" that developed in response to a changing "scientific environment," namely, the advent of computing, while an older "species," classical dynamics, continued to thrive. Three concepts new to the twentieth century-potential vorticity, baroclinic instability, and chaos-receive extended treatment. Concerning chaos, Lorenz modestly remarked, "I have personally devoted much attention" to this concept.

George Cressman, former head of the Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit and former director of the National Weather Service, describes "The Origin and Rise of Numerical Weather Prediction." His survey ranges from early efforts to compute atmospheric changes nu­merically by Felix Exner, Vilhelm Berknes, and L.F. Richardson in the first decades of this century, through the development of electronic computers in the 1950s, to the implementation, circa 1965, of daily forecasting with primitive equation models.

Observational tools and computational devices

Radar, satellites, and computers are without question the tools of choice for modern meteorologists. Bob Serafin, director of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, provides a broad perspective, both topically and chronologically in his chapter, "The Evolution of Atmo­spheric Measurement Systems." He documents the ever-expanding and ever more sophisticated set of tools for measuring the traditional meteorological variables-wind, pressure, moisture, and temperature, at the surface and aloft-and the new systems that measure trace chemical species and characteristics of the deep oceans. His focus is on operational observing systems: from the earliest instruments and net­works to the current "modernization" revolution taking place in the forecasting system used by the National Weather Service.

Roddy Rogers and Paul Smith, both established radar experts and students of the pioneers of the field, have written "A Short History of Radar Meteorology." Viewing radar as fundamental to the develop-

INTRODUCTION xiii

ment of both mesoscale meteorology and modern atmospheric remote sensing, they document its utility-in forecasting, aviation, storm re­search, and precipitation physics, and the interdisciplinary breadth of its appeal-to physicists, electrical engineers, applied mathemati­cians, and others in both the military and civilian sectors. Radar me­teorology, although relatively young as a scientific field, has generated a rich literature and holds the record for the longest series of confer­ences sponsored by AMS. This review documents the emergence of the field, from the first revolutionary observations of rain storms using military radars to today's wind profilers, Doppler radars, and efforts to integrate radar observations and numerical models.

The "Evolution of Satellite Observations in the United States and Their Use in Meteorology" is examined by satellite specialists James Purdom and Paul Menzel. Atmospheric scientists have always desired to have an observational platform aloft. Earlier efforts included manned balloon flights, kite measurements of the upper atmosphere, and rocket probes into the stratosphere. Since 1960 meteorological satellites have provided a "weather eye in the sky" from both polar and geostationary orbits. The authors document the interplay between the hardware de­veloped by the space program and the operational and research needs of the meteorological community. Their comprehensive review of sat­ellite capabilities extends over 35 years, from TIROS-1 to GOES-8, and points out new challenges and opportunities just over the horizon.

Historian of science and technology Frederik Nebeker has written "A History of Calculating Aids in Meteorology" that surveys the wide variety of calculating aids used in meteorology from the earliest times. Such devices, include numerical tables, graphical techniques, comput­ing forms, special-purpose slide rules, punched-card and adding ma­chines, and special-purpose analog computers. He describes their var­ious applications and their replacement by the electronic digital computer-a general-purpose computational device that could produce tables and charts and, significantly, was able to generate useful nu­merical weather forecasts.

Cloud microphysics and dynamics

Roscoe Braham, a pioneer in the field of cloud physics, has prepared an authoritative chapter, "Formation of Rain: A Historical Perspective," documenting the modern development and multidisciplinary nature of

xiv HISTORICAL EsSAYS ON METEOROLOGY

the field. He discusses the various theories of rain formation conden­sation, collision, coalescence, and ice crystal processes that have been developed in recent decades. His view of the future of cloud physics is a bright one, illuminated by new technologies and interdisciplinary opportunities.

The influence of cloud microphysics on the dynamics of clouds is a central theme in Harold Orville's chapter, "A History of Research in Cloud Dynamics and Microphysics." Orville employs the third equation of motion, describing the vertical component of airflow, as a framework for discussing the interactions of dynamics and microphysics in clouds. Observational studies of clouds and thunderstorms and theories of plumes and thermals highlight the work done before 1960. More re­cently, although field studies continue, the focus has been on the de­velopment of numerical models of clouds and severe storms.

Hurricanes, convective storms, and lightning

"A History of Hurricane Forecasting for the Atlantic Basin, 1920-1995," is the subject of the chapter by Mark DeMaria. Using case studies of specific storms as a way of illustrating the problems involved in forecasting hurricane tracks and intensities, he reviews technolog­ical advances that influenced the field, including the implementation of the upper-air network in the late 1930s, the establishment of routine aircraft reconnaissance in the 1940s, the advent of numerical weather prediction in the 1950s, and the availability of satellite observations since the 1960s. He also describes organizational changes in the hur­ricane forecast offices and the interaction between the research and forecast communities.

Over the years tornado outbreaks have, with distressing regularity, caused numerous deaths, untold suffering, and massive amounts of property damage. Meteorologists have, with varying degrees of success, tried to understand and predict these outbreaks and provide timely warnings to the public. Ken Crawford and Ed Kessler, both from the University of Oklahoma, have combined efforts to document the history of these efforts in their chapter, "Severe Convective Storms: A Brief History of Science and Practice." Their account begins in the 1880s with the tornado studies of Signal Sergeant John P. Finley, surveys over a century of research in severe storms and the growing capacity of the National Weather Service to issue timely warnings, and concludes with

INTRODUCTION XV

a review of the technological foundation upon which more skillful fore­cast and warning decisions are being made in the 1990s.

Phil Krider, an international authority on atmospheric electricity, traces the development of research on the physical properties of light­ning from 1919 to the present. His thorough review, "75 Years of Re­search on the Physics of a Lightning Discharge," discusses the lumi­nous, electrical, and magnetic aspects of natural and triggered flashes between cloud and ground. He also reviews techniques used to detect and locate lightning discharges-a field in which he was a pioneer.

Climatology and hydrology

"Steps in the Evolution of Climatology: From Descriptive to Ana­lytic," by John Kutzbach, traces two paths in our understanding of the climate. The first outlines ideas about the earth's energy budget from the time of Halley (1693) to the present; the second sketches concepts of the general circulation and hydrologic cycle. These paths have led to today's energy budget and dynamic climate models that are being used to reconstruct past climates, understand ocean-biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks, and evaluate the effects of human intervention in the cli­mate system.

In his chapter, "Applied Climatology: A Glorious Past, An Uncer­tain Future," Stanley Changnon assesses the accomplishments and potential of this ever-changing interdisciplinary realm. The author de­fines applied climatology broadly as "any useful endeavor" that "de­scribes, defines, interprets, and/or explains" the relationships between climate conditions and thousands of weather-sensitive activities; he locates it within a complex network bounded by fundamental climate research, climate data, and the users of climate information. Mter reviewing the field's distinguished past, Changnon concludes that ma­jor challenges remain, especially in applying climate information to key economic sectors such as agriculture, engineering, and energy pro­duction; in maintaining the integrity of the historic climate database; and in educating a new and more sophisticated generation of applied climate scientists.

Edwin Engman's chapter, "Hydrology in the Twentieth Century," traces the history of hydrology from its foundations as an engineering discipline for solving water resource problems through its development as a distinct and interdisciplinary geoscience. Changing technology,

xvi HISTORICAL ESSAYS ON METEOROLOGY

especially in computing and remote sensing, and the needs of other disciplines, including meteorology, have shaped the development of the field. The author provides a periodization of important ideas and indi­viduals and discusses the challenges and opportunities currently fac­ing the hydrologic sciences.

The private sector

In "A History of Private Sector Meteorology," David Spiegler traces the rise of the field since 1945, when some of the currently existing private weather forecasting companies began operations. He identifies 10 segments of the private sector-weather forecasting services, in­strumentation companies, data and graphics providers, staff meteorol­ogists in industrial companies, general meteorological consulting ser­vices, forensic meteorologists, specialty companies, environmental consultants, weather system developers, and media meteorology-that today generate a billion dollars worth of business annually. Using sur­veys, interviews, and his own extensive experience in the field, Spie­gler's account includes memorable individuals, important companies, and significant events and factors in the development of the private sector.

Gordon Cartwright and Charlie Sprinkle have combined efforts to prepare a dynamic chapter, "A History of Aeronautical Meteorology: Personal Perspectives, 1903-1995," that clearly demonstrates the symbiosis between weather and flying. They divide their hybrid history of meteorology and aviation into three eras: before 1939, World War II and the emergence of global aviation, and the contemporary era. The authors' account is based on their extensive personal experiences in aviation meteorology, notably their lifelong involvement in the devel­opment of international institutions and accords. They conclude that the services generated in support of the aviation industry, both mili­tary and commercial, have had a profound impact on the whole field of meteorology and the development of weather services in all nations.

Roy Leep's career spans 40 years as a professional weathercaster. His chapter, "The American Meteorological Society and the Develop­ment of Broadcast Meteorology," spans over 70 years of history, from the radio broadcasts of E.B. Rideout in the 1920s on WEEI Boston, through the latest developments in TV weathercasting technology as exemplified by his own station, WTVT Tampa. Leep highlights the role

INTRODUCTION xvii

of the AMS in setting professional standards through its Seal of Ap­proval program and documents both the notable achievements and the current challenges facing the broadcast industry.

Education

"From Geo- to Physical Science: Meteorology and the American University, 1919-1945," by historian and geographer William Koelsch, examines alternative approaches to the institutionalization of ad­vanced meteorological education. In the late nineteenth century, me­teorology was not recognized as a distinct discipline. Introductory

courses on weather and climate, if they were offered at all, were largely descriptive and were incorporated into university departments of ge­ology, geography, physics, or even agriculture. In the 1920s and 1930s increasing interest in aeronautics helped meteorology find a tentative home in engineering departments. By the early 1940s the introduction of Norwegian methods of analysis, the war-induced influx of new stu­dents, and the rise of graduate programs at five major universities resulted in meteorology being recognized as a university discipline focused on the fundamental principles underlying the behavior of the atmosphere.

David Houghton, the current president of the American Meteoro­logical Society, has prepared an account of "Meteorology Education in the United States after 1945." This chapter documents the support provided by AMS, the National Academy of Sciences, and a number of federal agencies for meteorological education from K-12 through the Ph.D. level. Starting with a handful of graduate programs just after World War II, the number of meteorology programs at universities now has reached 109, including 77 offering the Ph.D. degree. Membership

in the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, originally 14

in 1960, now stands at 61. Today's efforts are increasingly interdisci­plinary, involving education in meteorological applications, oceanog­

raphy, earth system science, and global environmental issues.

Special essays

The volume concludes with "Historical Writing on Meteorology: An Annotated Bibliography," a discussion of over 70 books and disserta­

tions on the history of meteorology by myself and Colby College stu­dent Simone Kaplan. The references and annotations are meant to

XVlll HISTORICAL EssAYS ON METEOROLOGY

serve as a working "historian's bookshelf' and guide to further reading in the field.

This is followed by Julie Burba's "Historical Photo Gallery," which depicts meteorologists and meteorological equipment of bygone eras.

The history of meteorology is growing in popularity. In the last academic year alone (1994-1995), sessions on the history of meteorol­ogy were held at meetings of the American Meteorological Society, the American Geophysical Union, the History of Science Society, the Royal Meteorological Society, and the Society for the History of Technology. This newfound popularity may be due in part to increased media cov­erage of severe weather events, in part to growing awareness of the scientific and human dimensions of global change, in part to the re­tirement of a large number of meteorologists trained during and just after World War II, and in part to greater diversification among pro­fessional historians of science and technology. Whatever might be the proximate sources of this interest, we need and deserve to know more about the rich heritage of meteorology. There is much known and much yet to be learned. Indeed there are great opportunities here, especially for collaborations between enterprising scientist-historians and histo­rians of science. It is a necessary step in the maturation of a scientific discipline.

James Rodger Fleming Waterville, Maine 12 October 1995