hoa sen group - tvs.vn reports/2017/thang 4... · 3 hoa sen group (hsg) –initiation please visit...

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Nguyen Khac Viet Bach, Analyst [email protected] 12-month price target VND 51,100 Trading Data and Key Metrics Sector Steel Listing From Dec 2008 Price as of 05 Apr 17 50,600 52w High 52,300 52w Low 22,100 Market Capital (VND bn) 10,024 Shares Outstanding (mm) 196.5 Free Float (mm) 106.0 15-Day Average Vol (‘000) 1,646.6 T12M P/BV (x) 2.41 T12M P/E (x) 5.47 EV / EBITDA (x) 5.64 Dividend Yield (%) 1.98 Net Debt / Equity (x) 1.26 Source : HSG, TVS 1-Year Price Performance (VND bn) Ownership Structure 35.7% 35.9% 0.0% 28.4% Chairman & related parties Institutional Investors Insiders Retail Investors Hoa Sen Group Cautious Approach As Cycle’s Top Is Not Far Ahead NEUTRAL – 1% UPSIDE Initiation Report I April 05, 2017 Please visit TVS Research on Bloomberg at <TVSJ> GO Source: Bloomberg, TVS -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 160% 4/4/2016 7/4/2016 10/4/2016 1/4/2017 4/4/2017 HSG VN Index Hoa Sen Group is a leading steel manufacturer in Vietnam We initiate coverage on Hoa Sen Group, a leading steel manufacturer in Vietnam as of March 2017. The stock is part of the VN30 Index and had a stellar performance last fiscal year as well as Q1 result. The overall consensus has thus been positive and management is forecasting more good news ahead. We however are cautious on the Company’s performance based on: FY2016’s earning jump reflects a unique combination of 1) sharp recovery in the underlying commodity 2) HSG’s cheap inventories – a situation which unlikely to repeat this year. Management’s revenue expectation seems overly aggressive as it incorporate both aggressive volume growth and selling price increase. There is a thin margin of safety in term of valuation Recommendation We categorize HSG as a cyclical company with the most significant competitive advantage being economies of scale – a diminishing edge as HSG has grown to become one of the largest local players. The Company has little pricing power and its input cost is highly dependent on cost of importing Hot-rolled-coil steel. 2016 was an extraordinary whereby a combination of: 1) low inventory accumulated at low price 2) HRC doubled from USD 300 to USD 600 3) favorable government policies to limit supply glut from China steel 4) demand pick up from construction sector. We believe 3 out of these 4 advantages are absent in 2017. At current price of VND 50,600, HSG is is only 1.0% below our probability weighted value of VND 51,100. We thus assign a NEUTRAL rating to the stock. 2,836 4,913 11,257 12,620 21,089 15,005 17,491 18,006 20,966 3,919 5,793 19.6% 19.0% 8.0% 9.7% 6.9% 11.7% 14.9% 23.2% 19.0% 16.6% 18.1% 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017E Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Total Revenue in VND bn vs Gross Margin Gross Revenue Gross Margin Source: HSG Annual Reports, TVS’s estimate

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Page 1: Hoa Sen Group - tvs.vn reports/2017/Thang 4... · 3 Hoa Sen Group (HSG) –Initiation Please visit TVS Research on Bloomberg at  GO HSG’sPurchasing Activity Is An Important

Nguyen Khac Viet Bach, Analyst

[email protected]

12-month price target VND 51,100

Trading Data and Key Metrics

Sector Steel

Listing From Dec 2008

Price as of 05 Apr 17 50,600

52w High 52,300

52w Low 22,100

Market Capital (VND bn) 10,024

Shares Outstanding (mm) 196.5

Free Float (mm) 106.0

15-Day Average Vol (‘000) 1,646.6

T12M P/BV (x) 2.41

T12M P/E (x) 5.47

EV / EBITDA (x) 5.64

Dividend Yield (%) 1.98

Net Debt / Equity (x) 1.26

Source : HSG, TVS

1-Year Price Performance (VND bn)

Ownership Structure

35.7%

35.9%

0.0%

28.4%

Chairman & related parties

Institutional Investors

Insiders

Retail Investors

Hoa Sen GroupCautious Approach As Cycle’s Top Is Not Far Ahead

NEUTRAL – 1% UPSIDEInitiation Report I April 05, 2017

Please visit TVS Research on Bloomberg at <TVSJ> GO

Source: Bloomberg, TVS

-40%

0%

40%

80%

120%

160%

4/4

/20

16

7/4

/20

16

10

/4/2

016

1/4

/20

17

4/4

/20

17

HSG VN Index

Hoa Sen Group is a leading steel manufacturer in Vietnam

We initiate coverage on Hoa Sen Group, a leading steel manufacturer inVietnam as of March 2017. The stock is part of the VN30 Index and had astellar performance last fiscal year as well as Q1 result. The overallconsensus has thus been positive and management is forecasting moregood news ahead. We however are cautious on the Company’sperformance based on:

• FY2016’s earning jump reflects a unique combination of 1) sharprecovery in the underlying commodity 2) HSG’s cheap inventories – asituation which unlikely to repeat this year.

• Management’s revenue expectation seems overly aggressive as itincorporate both aggressive volume growth and selling price increase.

• There is a thin margin of safety in term of valuation

Recommendation

We categorize HSG as a cyclical company with the most significantcompetitive advantage being economies of scale – a diminishing edge asHSG has grown to become one of the largest local players. The Companyhas little pricing power and its input cost is highly dependent on cost ofimporting Hot-rolled-coil steel.

2016 was an extraordinary whereby a combination of: 1) low inventoryaccumulated at low price 2) HRC doubled from USD 300 to USD 600 3)favorable government policies to limit supply glut from China steel 4)demand pick up from construction sector. We believe 3 out of these 4advantages are absent in 2017.

At current price of VND 50,600, HSG is is only 1.0% below our probabilityweighted value of VND 51,100. We thus assign a NEUTRAL rating to thestock.

2,836 4,913

11,257 12,620

21,089

15,005 17,491 18,006

20,966

3,919 5,793

19.6% 19.0%

8.0%9.7%

6.9%

11.7%14.9%

23.2%

19.0%16.6% 18.1%

2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017E Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Total Revenue in VND bn vs Gross Margin

Gross Revenue Gross Margin

Source: HSG Annual Reports, TVS’s estimate

Page 2: Hoa Sen Group - tvs.vn reports/2017/Thang 4... · 3 Hoa Sen Group (HSG) –Initiation Please visit TVS Research on Bloomberg at  GO HSG’sPurchasing Activity Is An Important

Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation2

Please visit TVS Research on Bloomberg at <TVSJ> GO

Drop In Commodities Lower Both The Company’s Unit Cost And Selling Price

Unlike its competitor Hoa Phat Group, HSG has to import most of its inputsand thus is more sensitive to change in commodity price

There are other key raw materials in steel manufacturing such as limestone orscrap steel but our studies shows that the above-three have the highestimpact on steel companies’ fundamentals.

Going forward, the trend is not as favorable. Most analysts expect thesecommodities’ price to correct over the next 2 years citing higher supply fromAustralia miners and a slow down in China construction sector

HSG management also forecasted Hot-rolled-coil price to drop as low as USD400 in 2017 thus we expect HSG’s selling price will have to drop too and theCompany will have to make up with substantial volume to hit revenue target.

Historically, as commoditiesprice drops, lowering unitcost, so does HSG’s sellingprice. However, impact onGross Profit is ambiguouswithout further assessmentof HSG’s purchasing pattern

The most importantcommodities affecting HSG’sprofitability are Iron Ore,Coking Coal and Hot-Rolled-Coil Steel – all of whichrebound significantly in 2016but forecasted to trend downgoing forward.

Iron Ore(“IO”)

Coking Coal(“CC”)

Hot-Rolled-Coil(“HRC”)

Peking Orders of Key Commodities in Steel Manufacturing

-80.0%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jan-17

Monthly Prices Change (Base Year April 2013)

IO CC HRCSource: Bloomberg, TVS

-5.5%

26.0%

-47.5%

-7.5%-15.4%-7.2%

30.0%

-50.2%

-10.9%

-24.2%

13.9%

-11.2% -11.0%

17.9%

34.4%

FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016

Gross Profit Drivers (% Change)

Price/Tons Unit Cost/Tons Spread

• FY2016: IO (+101.5%); CC (+154.0%); HRC (+61.9%)

Source: Bloomberg, TVS

Price 2017E 2018E

Iron Ore 51.6 46.7

Coking Coal 150 100

Hot-rolled-coil 560 NA

Source: MetalMiner, National Bank of Australia, TVS compile

Page 3: Hoa Sen Group - tvs.vn reports/2017/Thang 4... · 3 Hoa Sen Group (HSG) –Initiation Please visit TVS Research on Bloomberg at  GO HSG’sPurchasing Activity Is An Important

Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation3

Please visit TVS Research on Bloomberg at <TVSJ> GO

HSG’s Purchasing Activity Is An Important Leading Indicator For FuturePerformance

HSG accelerates their inventories purchasing in Q2 and Q4 annually, asmanagement anticipates cyclical surges in demand for Q1 and Q3

If HSG can accumulate inventories of HRC at low price, they will set the stagefor the next cycle explosive earning. In our opinion this is due to a doubleeffect. Low material cost not only allow HRC to buy cheap inventories, it alsoincentivize steel demand. As we map the annualized change in HRC price ontoHSG’s purchasing cycle, an interesting pattern revealed.

The current situation resemble late 2009 and there is a high chance thatgrowth will slow down sharply over the next 2-3 years. Thus we adviseinvestors to put on their contrarian hat while investing in the sector as HSG’sshare, post purchasing made at low input cost, outperforms significantly.

HSG’s intra-year purchasingcycle falls on Q2 (Jan-Mar)and Q4 (Jun-Sep)

For commodity businessessuch as HSG, profits stemfrom prudent purchases

2,212

1,697

2,548

2,236

2,389

1,501

2,082

1,933

3,530

2,925

3,130

3,031

3,860

2,236

5,835

2,491

4,739

2,368

4,194

2,184

3,880

3,021

5,829

4,957

0.0x

0.5x

1.0x

1.5x

2.0x

2.5x

3.0x

3.5x

Q22011

Q42011

Q22012

Q42012

Q22013

Q42013

Q22014

Q42014

Q22015

Q42015

Q22016

Q42016

HSG’s Quarterly Purchasing (VND bn) and as % of Revenue

% Revenue Purchasing

Source: HSG’s Financial Reports, TVS

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16

Monthly Annualized Change in HRC Price

Positive Months Negative Months Peak Purchasing

Source: HSG’s Financial Reports, TVS

Period Annualized Monthly Change in HRC Price (%)

HSG’s Share Price Performance

Mar 2010 – Mar 2012 +24.4%/-12.4% -64.1%

Mar 2012 – Sep 2013 -12.4%/+3.7% +303.0%

Sep 2013 – Mar 2015 +3.7%/-21.7% -10.1%

Mar 2015 – Sep 2016 -21.7%/+22.6% +164.7%

Sep 2016 – Feb 2017 +22.6%/+57.1% +16.5%

Source: Bloomberg, TVS

Page 4: Hoa Sen Group - tvs.vn reports/2017/Thang 4... · 3 Hoa Sen Group (HSG) –Initiation Please visit TVS Research on Bloomberg at  GO HSG’sPurchasing Activity Is An Important

Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation4

Please visit TVS Research on Bloomberg at <TVSJ> GO

Revenue Target Inconsistent With Fundamental Led Us To Believe HSG WillNot Beat This Year Expectation

We suspect HSG is overoptimistic this year as the revenue target implies bothrising volume and appreciating selling price – a combination that is oftenabsent in the fiercely competitive steel market.

The Company’s strategy to keep lowering price and stimulate volume haslimitation. We are also cautious of extrapolating recent result and prefer toappreciate the nature of commodity market to mean-revert as supply anddemand balanced.

Current near all-time high margin is unsustainable in our opinion. Thus as itrevert to long term average, so does HSG’s ROIC

In the long run, we believe HSG can move into higher valued-added productlines or seek out less competitive market to enter. However this will not befactored into our 2017 – 2019 expectation.

Overoptimistic target maylead to disappointment andshare price correction in 2017– 2018

Without price decrease wesee little reason why HSGshould achieve strong volumegrowth

22.0 20.3

19.0 17.2

12.214.6

22.3

18.5

17.316.1

13.6

FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

Revenue per Tons Sold (VND Mils/Tons)

Planned Pricing Actual Pricing

Source: HSG Financial Report, TVS

Period % Change in Price/Tons % Change in Volume Sold Price reduction effectiveness

(1)

FY2013 -16.7% +39.9% 2.39

FY2014 -6.9% +36.9% 5.5

FY2015 -6.7% +24.7% 3.69

FY2016 -15.7% +21.6% 1.37

FY2017(2) +7.4% +19.6% nm

Source: HSG’s Annual Report, TVS (1) %Change in Vol/-%Change in Selling Price (2) Implied from management’s forecast

Long term margin and ROICis trending up but currentlevel is unsustainable thuswill likely revert over thenext 2-3 years 12.0%

8.6%

3.6%

5.2%3.7%

4.9%6.4%

11.8%

18.6%

9.5%9.9%

15.4% 13.8%

7.4%

10.6%

17.9%

FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016

EBITA(1) Margin vs ROIC(2) (%)

EBITA Margin ROIC

Source: HSG Financial Report, TVS (1) EBITA is calculated instead of EBITDA since we view depreciation as real expense for HSG (2) ROIC = (EBITA – Cash tax)/Invested Capital (intangible asset excluded)

Page 5: Hoa Sen Group - tvs.vn reports/2017/Thang 4... · 3 Hoa Sen Group (HSG) –Initiation Please visit TVS Research on Bloomberg at  GO HSG’sPurchasing Activity Is An Important

Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation5

Please visit TVS Research on Bloomberg at <TVSJ> GO

Valuation – Discounted Cash Flow Method

As cyclical companies have volatile earning and margin, subjected the cyclicalswing of each sector, our approach to value these company involvenormalization of free cash flow.

Our FCFE model includes a 10 years – 3 stages FCFE forecast, controlling forthe working capital and Net Capex investment the Company has to make tosustain growth. The model indicate the most probable intrinsic value rangefrom VND 45,900 – 59,600, with median value at VND 52,900

Summary of our base case model key assumptions:

Our model implies a slow deterioration of both sales growth and operatingcash flow margin.

As mentioned above a declining sales growth rate is in line with our view thatHSG’s economies of scale advantage has diminishing return while its pricingpower are often dictated by external factors such as trade policies andsupply/demand dynamic.

DCF model’s sensitivity analysis(1):

Our DCF model indicates HSGto be fairly valued at thecurrent price

We balance our assumptionof slower top line growthwith efficiencies gain as lessinvestment capital is requiredto generate sales

Both profit margin and ROICis far above long term trendand is not sustainable

Metrics Average of 2007 –2011

Average of 2011 –2016

Average of 2017 –2027

Gross RevenueIn VND BilsGrowth Rate

4,002.044.8%

15,005.116.4%

35,384.410.7%

Operating Cash Flow aft TaxIn VND BilsAs % Gross Revenue

378.410.9%

730.26.2%

2,594.87.6%

Working Capital InvestmentIn VND BilsAs % Gross Revenue

(568.7)(14.7%)

(1,067.2)(5.9%)

(2,097.1)(5.9%)

Net CapexIn VND BilsAs % Gross Revenue

(465.6)(12.3%)

(470.4)(4.0%)

(831.9)(2.7%)

Risk-Free-Rate 6.6%

Beta 1.2

Equity Risk Premium 8.5%

Discount Rate 16.8%

Terminal Growth Rate 2.0%

Source: TVSNote: (1) The two most impact variables in our model is cash flow margin and revenue growth rate. We control these variables by applying a constant decay rate. The basic assumptions are that growth will slow down and margin revert to a trending up long term average during the forecast period

Revenue Growth Decay Rate

0% -3% -6% -9% -12% -15% -18% -21%

Op Cash Flow

Margin Decay Rate

-2.0% 81,434 75,351 70,540 66,669 63,504 60,882 58,681 56,815

-3.0% 75,061 69,639 65,341 61,875 59,035 56,677 54,695 53,011

-4.0% 69,101 64,288 60,463 57,371 54,833 52,720 50,940 49,425

-5.0% 63,527 59,274 55,886 53,140 50,880 48,995 47,403 46,044

-6.0% 58,313 54,577 51,591 49,165 47,162 45,487 44,069 42,855

-7.0% 53,436 50,175 47,560 45,429 43,664 42,184 40,926 39,847

-8.0% 48,874 46,049 43,777 41,917 40,372 39,072 37,963 37,010

Page 6: Hoa Sen Group - tvs.vn reports/2017/Thang 4... · 3 Hoa Sen Group (HSG) –Initiation Please visit TVS Research on Bloomberg at  GO HSG’sPurchasing Activity Is An Important

Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation6

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Valuation – Trading Multiples Method

In addition to DCF model, we also employ historical and comparable multiplesmethod to account for a wider range of outcome

Historical trading multiple range:

Comparable peers group – summary of key operating metrics:

We select peer companies with comparable revenue size with HSG both withinVietnam and APAC region. As per the comparable table above, there are twoobservations to be made: (1) HSG enjoyed an above average growth rate,margin and profitability relative to peers (2) The Company achieving this withrelative modest leverage.

We believe HSG should generally trade at a premium to its peers group.However, the drawback is that the commodity cycle affects all companies inthe sector and every companies’ multiples will compress at the same time.

HSG seems underpricedrelative to its historical P/Eand EV/EBIT band…

Regional peers are tradingwithin too wide a range,most likely due to differencesin market index trading levelsand other country specificfactors…

Metrics HSG’sLocal Peers’

MedianRegional Peers’

Median

Gro

wth Avg 5 Yrs Sales Growth

Avg 5 Yrs EPS GrowthTTM Sales Growth

17.3%40.2%2.4%

7.7%85.5%8.0%

1.3%52.0%-0.3%

Mar

gin Gross Margin

EBITA MarginNet Margin

23.3%11.9%8.9%

9.5%7.3%4.8%

9.8%4.2%1.8%

Pro

fita

bili

ty ROEROICDividend Yield

41.0%16.8%5.5%

41.1%11.7%3.5%

2.7%4.1%1.4%

Cre

dit Net Debt/Equity

Net Debt/EBITEBIT/Interest Exp

1.3x2.4x

10.2x

0.9x4.7x2.7x

1.5x8.6x1.9x

Val

uat

ion

P/EP/BEV/SalesEV/EBITDAEV/EBITA

1.3x2.4x

10.2x5.5x6.9x

0.9x4.7x2.7x5.8x6.8x

1.5x8.6x1.9x8.2x

15.1x

…thus we prefer local peersin making comparison andtheir multiples implies thatHSG is fairly priced

Source: Bloomberg, TVS

3.0x

5.0x

7.0x

9.0x

11.0x

13.0x

15.0x

1/2/2013 1/2/2014 1/2/2015 1/2/2016 1/2/2017

P/E Trading Range

TTM P/E -1Std 3 Yr Average +1Std

Source: Bloomberg, TVS

3.0x

5.0x

7.0x

9.0x

11.0x

13.0x

15.0x

1/2/2013 1/2/2014 1/2/2015 1/2/2016 1/2/2017

EV/EBIT Trading Range

TTM EV/EBIT -1Std 3 Yr Average +1Std

…but this is likely due to asurprisingly strong 2016pushing up earnings ratherthan a re-rating of multiple

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Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation7

Please visit TVS Research on Bloomberg at <TVSJ> GO

Valuation Summary & Conclusion

Combining various valuation methods and parameters we arrive at 3scenarios:

We thus recommend a NEUTRAL rating for HSG’s stock as of April 5th 2017

Key risks to valuation models

- Upward revision can be due to (1) Strong demand from construction sectorpersist, leading to higher volume growth (2) The recent anti-dumping onChina imported steel allow HSG to capture more market shares

- Downward revision can be due to (1) Faster margin compressed from acommodity crash (2) Higher interest rate pushing up HSG’s interestexpense while slowing down demand at the same time

- 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 200,000

RP EV/EBITDA

RP EV/Sales

RP EV/EBITA

RP P/B

RP P/E

LP EV/EBITDA

LP EV/Sales

LP EV/EBITA

LP P/B

LP P/E

Historical EV/EBIT

Historical P/E

FCFE

Valuation Summary(1)

Min Point 25th Point Mid Point 75th Point Max Point

Source: TVS’s Estimate

We recommend a Hold ratingfor HSG stock with a targetprice of VND 51,100, implyinga +1.0% return, with dividendunaccounted for

Scenarios Target Price Implied Return Probability Weight

Bear Case VND 42,300 -16.4% 30%

Base Case VND 50,600 +0.0% 50%

Bull Case VND 65,600 +29.6% 20%

Aggregate VND 51,100 +1.0% 100%

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Income Statement (VND bn) 2014A 2015A 2016A Q1 2017 Balance Sheet (VND bn) 2014A 2015A 2016A Q1 2017

Net sales 14,990 17,468 17,894 5,767 Cash and equivalents 156 277 577 228

Cost of sales 13,240 14,869 13,717 4,720 Financial investment - - - -

Gross profit 1,750 2,599 4,176 1,047 Accounts receivable 1,259 1,110 1,152 937

Selling expenses 693 869 1,197 314 Inventory 4,747 3,544 4,822 4,968

General administration expenses 327 447 756 195 Prepaid expenses, other CA 237 239 507 867

Other operating income/(expenses) (1) - - - Total current assets 6,400 5,169 7,057 7,956EBITDA 1,039 1,704 2,685 693 Property and equipment

Depreciation & Amortization 354 482 549 156 At cost 4,854 5,642 7,019 6,417

EBIT 685 1,223 2,136 537 Less accumulated depreciation (1,433) (1,902) (2,428) (2,439)

Net interest income/(expenses) - - - - Net property and equipment 3,421 3,740 4,591 3,978

Net investment income - - - - Net intangibles 0 0 0 400

Others (recurring) 10 3 (12) - Total investments 46 38 26 73

Pretax Profit 523 832 1,907 515 Other long - term assets 339 493 636 1,550

Income tax 113 179 403 75 Total Assets 10,206 9,441 12,310 13,957

Tax rate (%) 22 22 21 15 Account Payables 1,886 626 1,620 707

Minorities - - 3 0 Short-term debt 4,545 4,521 4,366 6,267

Net Income 410 653 1,504 440 Other current liabilities 436 408 771 718

EPS (basic VND, reported) 2,185 3,309 7,350 2,239 Total Current Liabilities 6,867 5,555 6,757 7,692

Weighted shares outstanding (mn) 188 189 196 196 Long-term debt 959 975 1,423 1,662

Other long-term liabilities - - 3 4

Common dividends declared (192) (144) (327) nm Total long-term liabilities 959 975 1,426 1,666

DPS (VND) 487 1,583 5,094 nm

Dividend Payout ratio (%) 46.8 22.1 21.7 nm Stockholders' equity 2,379 2,911 4,127 4,598

Dividend cover (x) 4.5x 2.1x 2.4x nm Common Equity 1,008 1,008 1,965 1,965

Treasury shares (81) (52) - -

Growth and Margin (%) 2014A 2015A 2016A Q1 2017 Capital surplus 452 487 552 552

Sales Growth (%) 27.5 16.5 2.4 47.4 Retained earnings 979 1,453 1,603 2,043

EBITDA Growth (%) (9.2) 64.0 57.5 61.4 Budget sources and other funds 22 15 7 37

EBIT Growth (%) (20.8) 78.4 74.7 79.3 Minority interest - - 3 -

Net Income Growth (%) (29.4) 59.1 130.4 135.0 Total liabilities and equity 10,206 9,441 12,310 13,957

EPS Growth (%) (28.3) 51.5 122.1 135.0 Capitalized leases 6 5 4 -

Gross Margin (%) 11.7 14.9 23.3 18.1 Capital employed 3,339 3,886 5,553 12,299

EBITDA Margin (%) 6.9 9.8 15.0 12.0

EBIT Margin (%) 4.6 7.0 11.9 9.3 Ratios (%) 2014A 2015A 2016A TTM

Net Income Margin (%) 2.7 3.6 8.1 7.6 ROE (%) 17.9 24.7 42.7 43.9

ROA (%) 4.7 6.6 13.8 15.5

Cash flow Statements (VNDbn) 2014A 2015A 2016A Q1 2017 ROIC (%) 13.4 18.1 31.9 19.1

Net Income 523 832 1,907 440 Inventory days 107.3 102.0 111.6 70.8

Adjustments for: Receivable days 24.3 24.8 23.1 11.5

Depreciation and amortization 354 482 549 156 Payable days 44.3 30.9 30.0 23.7

Change in inventories (1,727) 1,191 (1,279) (1,107) Asset Turnover (x) 1.7x 1.8x 1.6x 1.7x

Change in trade receivables (501) 70 (275) (146) Net debt/equity (x) 2.3x 1.8x 1.3x 1.7x

Change in trade payables 554 (1,092) 1,252 (886) Interest cover - EBIT(x) 0.2x 0.1x 0.1x 10.9x

Other operating cash flow (118) (203) (512) (1,231)

Cash flow from operations (915) 1,280 1,641 (1633) Valuation (Multiples) 2014A 2015A 2016A TTM

Net Capital expenditure (1,193) (735) (1,307) (806) EV / EBITDA (x) 9.4x 5.4x 5.0x 4.7x

Acquisition - - - - P/E (x) 10.3x 6.3x 5.7x 5.7x

Divestures - - - - Dividend Yield (%) 2.2 7.6 9.8 2.0

Other investments, net 2 4 5 (50) P/B (x) 1.8x 1.4x 2.0x 2.2x

Cash flow from investing (1,164) (707) (1,293) (856)

Equity issued (0) 65 116 -

Net borrowings 2,253 (363) 163 2,159

Dividends to shareholders (192) (144) (327) (0)

Cash flow from financing 2,060 (443) (48) 2,140

Net cash flow (21) 121 300 (349)

Opening cash 177 156 277 577 Notes: CA = current assets; CL = current liabilities; PP&E = Property and Equipment at Cost

Closing cash 156 277 577 228 Source: Thomson Reuters data, Thien Viet Securities model

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Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation9

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ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I, Nguyen Khac Viet Bach, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect ourpersonal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is orwill be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

RATING and VIEWS

Buy (B), Neutral (N), Sell (S) – Analysts recommend stocks as Buys or Sell based on his own views. Beingassigned a Buy or Sell is determined by as total stock’s return (TSR) potential that represents the pricedifferentials between the current share price and the price target expected during the time horizon plusexpected current dividend yield. Any stock not assigned as Buy or Sell is deemed Neutral.

DISCLAIMER

Copyright©2017 by Thien Viet Securities Joint-Stock Company (TVS). ALL RIGHT RESERVED. This researchreport is prepared for the use of TVS clients and may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed as awhole or partially in any form or manner without the prior written consent of TVS. The information herein isobtained from various sources and TVS does not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor anyopinions expressed in this publication constitutes a buy or sell recommendation on any securities orinvestment. TVS therefore does not take any responsibilities for any investor’s decisions.

DISCLAIMER

CONTACTS

12-month rating Definition

Buy Total Stock’s Return > 15%

Neutral Total Stock’s Return between (-15%) and 15%

Sell Total Stock Return < (-15%)

Short-term rating Definition

Buy Stock price expected to rise within three-month because of a specific catalyst or event

Sell Stock price expected to fall within three-month because of a specific catalyst or event

Not-ratedThe investment rating and target price, if any, suspended as there is not a sufficient fundamental

basis for determining an investment rating or target.

TVS Investment Research: Equity Rating Definitions

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