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Nguyen Khac Viet Bach, Analyst
12-month price target VND 51,100
Trading Data and Key Metrics
Sector Steel
Listing From Dec 2008
Price as of 05 Apr 17 50,600
52w High 52,300
52w Low 22,100
Market Capital (VND bn) 10,024
Shares Outstanding (mm) 196.5
Free Float (mm) 106.0
15-Day Average Vol (‘000) 1,646.6
T12M P/BV (x) 2.41
T12M P/E (x) 5.47
EV / EBITDA (x) 5.64
Dividend Yield (%) 1.98
Net Debt / Equity (x) 1.26
Source : HSG, TVS
1-Year Price Performance (VND bn)
Ownership Structure
35.7%
35.9%
0.0%
28.4%
Chairman & related parties
Institutional Investors
Insiders
Retail Investors
Hoa Sen GroupCautious Approach As Cycle’s Top Is Not Far Ahead
NEUTRAL – 1% UPSIDEInitiation Report I April 05, 2017
Please visit TVS Research on Bloomberg at <TVSJ> GO
Source: Bloomberg, TVS
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120%
160%
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HSG VN Index
Hoa Sen Group is a leading steel manufacturer in Vietnam
We initiate coverage on Hoa Sen Group, a leading steel manufacturer inVietnam as of March 2017. The stock is part of the VN30 Index and had astellar performance last fiscal year as well as Q1 result. The overallconsensus has thus been positive and management is forecasting moregood news ahead. We however are cautious on the Company’sperformance based on:
• FY2016’s earning jump reflects a unique combination of 1) sharprecovery in the underlying commodity 2) HSG’s cheap inventories – asituation which unlikely to repeat this year.
• Management’s revenue expectation seems overly aggressive as itincorporate both aggressive volume growth and selling price increase.
• There is a thin margin of safety in term of valuation
Recommendation
We categorize HSG as a cyclical company with the most significantcompetitive advantage being economies of scale – a diminishing edge asHSG has grown to become one of the largest local players. The Companyhas little pricing power and its input cost is highly dependent on cost ofimporting Hot-rolled-coil steel.
2016 was an extraordinary whereby a combination of: 1) low inventoryaccumulated at low price 2) HRC doubled from USD 300 to USD 600 3)favorable government policies to limit supply glut from China steel 4)demand pick up from construction sector. We believe 3 out of these 4advantages are absent in 2017.
At current price of VND 50,600, HSG is is only 1.0% below our probabilityweighted value of VND 51,100. We thus assign a NEUTRAL rating to thestock.
2,836 4,913
11,257 12,620
21,089
15,005 17,491 18,006
20,966
3,919 5,793
19.6% 19.0%
8.0%9.7%
6.9%
11.7%14.9%
23.2%
19.0%16.6% 18.1%
2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017E Q1 2016 Q1 2017
Total Revenue in VND bn vs Gross Margin
Gross Revenue Gross Margin
Source: HSG Annual Reports, TVS’s estimate
Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation2
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Drop In Commodities Lower Both The Company’s Unit Cost And Selling Price
Unlike its competitor Hoa Phat Group, HSG has to import most of its inputsand thus is more sensitive to change in commodity price
There are other key raw materials in steel manufacturing such as limestone orscrap steel but our studies shows that the above-three have the highestimpact on steel companies’ fundamentals.
Going forward, the trend is not as favorable. Most analysts expect thesecommodities’ price to correct over the next 2 years citing higher supply fromAustralia miners and a slow down in China construction sector
HSG management also forecasted Hot-rolled-coil price to drop as low as USD400 in 2017 thus we expect HSG’s selling price will have to drop too and theCompany will have to make up with substantial volume to hit revenue target.
Historically, as commoditiesprice drops, lowering unitcost, so does HSG’s sellingprice. However, impact onGross Profit is ambiguouswithout further assessmentof HSG’s purchasing pattern
The most importantcommodities affecting HSG’sprofitability are Iron Ore,Coking Coal and Hot-Rolled-Coil Steel – all of whichrebound significantly in 2016but forecasted to trend downgoing forward.
Iron Ore(“IO”)
Coking Coal(“CC”)
Hot-Rolled-Coil(“HRC”)
Peking Orders of Key Commodities in Steel Manufacturing
-80.0%
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jan-17
Monthly Prices Change (Base Year April 2013)
IO CC HRCSource: Bloomberg, TVS
-5.5%
26.0%
-47.5%
-7.5%-15.4%-7.2%
30.0%
-50.2%
-10.9%
-24.2%
13.9%
-11.2% -11.0%
17.9%
34.4%
FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016
Gross Profit Drivers (% Change)
Price/Tons Unit Cost/Tons Spread
• FY2016: IO (+101.5%); CC (+154.0%); HRC (+61.9%)
Source: Bloomberg, TVS
Price 2017E 2018E
Iron Ore 51.6 46.7
Coking Coal 150 100
Hot-rolled-coil 560 NA
Source: MetalMiner, National Bank of Australia, TVS compile
Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation3
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HSG’s Purchasing Activity Is An Important Leading Indicator For FuturePerformance
HSG accelerates their inventories purchasing in Q2 and Q4 annually, asmanagement anticipates cyclical surges in demand for Q1 and Q3
If HSG can accumulate inventories of HRC at low price, they will set the stagefor the next cycle explosive earning. In our opinion this is due to a doubleeffect. Low material cost not only allow HRC to buy cheap inventories, it alsoincentivize steel demand. As we map the annualized change in HRC price ontoHSG’s purchasing cycle, an interesting pattern revealed.
The current situation resemble late 2009 and there is a high chance thatgrowth will slow down sharply over the next 2-3 years. Thus we adviseinvestors to put on their contrarian hat while investing in the sector as HSG’sshare, post purchasing made at low input cost, outperforms significantly.
HSG’s intra-year purchasingcycle falls on Q2 (Jan-Mar)and Q4 (Jun-Sep)
For commodity businessessuch as HSG, profits stemfrom prudent purchases
2,212
1,697
2,548
2,236
2,389
1,501
2,082
1,933
3,530
2,925
3,130
3,031
3,860
2,236
5,835
2,491
4,739
2,368
4,194
2,184
3,880
3,021
5,829
4,957
0.0x
0.5x
1.0x
1.5x
2.0x
2.5x
3.0x
3.5x
Q22011
Q42011
Q22012
Q42012
Q22013
Q42013
Q22014
Q42014
Q22015
Q42015
Q22016
Q42016
HSG’s Quarterly Purchasing (VND bn) and as % of Revenue
% Revenue Purchasing
Source: HSG’s Financial Reports, TVS
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16
Monthly Annualized Change in HRC Price
Positive Months Negative Months Peak Purchasing
Source: HSG’s Financial Reports, TVS
Period Annualized Monthly Change in HRC Price (%)
HSG’s Share Price Performance
Mar 2010 – Mar 2012 +24.4%/-12.4% -64.1%
Mar 2012 – Sep 2013 -12.4%/+3.7% +303.0%
Sep 2013 – Mar 2015 +3.7%/-21.7% -10.1%
Mar 2015 – Sep 2016 -21.7%/+22.6% +164.7%
Sep 2016 – Feb 2017 +22.6%/+57.1% +16.5%
Source: Bloomberg, TVS
Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation4
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Revenue Target Inconsistent With Fundamental Led Us To Believe HSG WillNot Beat This Year Expectation
We suspect HSG is overoptimistic this year as the revenue target implies bothrising volume and appreciating selling price – a combination that is oftenabsent in the fiercely competitive steel market.
The Company’s strategy to keep lowering price and stimulate volume haslimitation. We are also cautious of extrapolating recent result and prefer toappreciate the nature of commodity market to mean-revert as supply anddemand balanced.
Current near all-time high margin is unsustainable in our opinion. Thus as itrevert to long term average, so does HSG’s ROIC
In the long run, we believe HSG can move into higher valued-added productlines or seek out less competitive market to enter. However this will not befactored into our 2017 – 2019 expectation.
Overoptimistic target maylead to disappointment andshare price correction in 2017– 2018
Without price decrease wesee little reason why HSGshould achieve strong volumegrowth
22.0 20.3
19.0 17.2
12.214.6
22.3
18.5
17.316.1
13.6
FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017
Revenue per Tons Sold (VND Mils/Tons)
Planned Pricing Actual Pricing
Source: HSG Financial Report, TVS
Period % Change in Price/Tons % Change in Volume Sold Price reduction effectiveness
(1)
FY2013 -16.7% +39.9% 2.39
FY2014 -6.9% +36.9% 5.5
FY2015 -6.7% +24.7% 3.69
FY2016 -15.7% +21.6% 1.37
FY2017(2) +7.4% +19.6% nm
Source: HSG’s Annual Report, TVS (1) %Change in Vol/-%Change in Selling Price (2) Implied from management’s forecast
Long term margin and ROICis trending up but currentlevel is unsustainable thuswill likely revert over thenext 2-3 years 12.0%
8.6%
3.6%
5.2%3.7%
4.9%6.4%
11.8%
18.6%
9.5%9.9%
15.4% 13.8%
7.4%
10.6%
17.9%
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016
EBITA(1) Margin vs ROIC(2) (%)
EBITA Margin ROIC
Source: HSG Financial Report, TVS (1) EBITA is calculated instead of EBITDA since we view depreciation as real expense for HSG (2) ROIC = (EBITA – Cash tax)/Invested Capital (intangible asset excluded)
Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation5
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Valuation – Discounted Cash Flow Method
As cyclical companies have volatile earning and margin, subjected the cyclicalswing of each sector, our approach to value these company involvenormalization of free cash flow.
Our FCFE model includes a 10 years – 3 stages FCFE forecast, controlling forthe working capital and Net Capex investment the Company has to make tosustain growth. The model indicate the most probable intrinsic value rangefrom VND 45,900 – 59,600, with median value at VND 52,900
Summary of our base case model key assumptions:
Our model implies a slow deterioration of both sales growth and operatingcash flow margin.
As mentioned above a declining sales growth rate is in line with our view thatHSG’s economies of scale advantage has diminishing return while its pricingpower are often dictated by external factors such as trade policies andsupply/demand dynamic.
DCF model’s sensitivity analysis(1):
Our DCF model indicates HSGto be fairly valued at thecurrent price
We balance our assumptionof slower top line growthwith efficiencies gain as lessinvestment capital is requiredto generate sales
Both profit margin and ROICis far above long term trendand is not sustainable
Metrics Average of 2007 –2011
Average of 2011 –2016
Average of 2017 –2027
Gross RevenueIn VND BilsGrowth Rate
4,002.044.8%
15,005.116.4%
35,384.410.7%
Operating Cash Flow aft TaxIn VND BilsAs % Gross Revenue
378.410.9%
730.26.2%
2,594.87.6%
Working Capital InvestmentIn VND BilsAs % Gross Revenue
(568.7)(14.7%)
(1,067.2)(5.9%)
(2,097.1)(5.9%)
Net CapexIn VND BilsAs % Gross Revenue
(465.6)(12.3%)
(470.4)(4.0%)
(831.9)(2.7%)
Risk-Free-Rate 6.6%
Beta 1.2
Equity Risk Premium 8.5%
Discount Rate 16.8%
Terminal Growth Rate 2.0%
Source: TVSNote: (1) The two most impact variables in our model is cash flow margin and revenue growth rate. We control these variables by applying a constant decay rate. The basic assumptions are that growth will slow down and margin revert to a trending up long term average during the forecast period
Revenue Growth Decay Rate
0% -3% -6% -9% -12% -15% -18% -21%
Op Cash Flow
Margin Decay Rate
-2.0% 81,434 75,351 70,540 66,669 63,504 60,882 58,681 56,815
-3.0% 75,061 69,639 65,341 61,875 59,035 56,677 54,695 53,011
-4.0% 69,101 64,288 60,463 57,371 54,833 52,720 50,940 49,425
-5.0% 63,527 59,274 55,886 53,140 50,880 48,995 47,403 46,044
-6.0% 58,313 54,577 51,591 49,165 47,162 45,487 44,069 42,855
-7.0% 53,436 50,175 47,560 45,429 43,664 42,184 40,926 39,847
-8.0% 48,874 46,049 43,777 41,917 40,372 39,072 37,963 37,010
Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation6
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Valuation – Trading Multiples Method
In addition to DCF model, we also employ historical and comparable multiplesmethod to account for a wider range of outcome
Historical trading multiple range:
Comparable peers group – summary of key operating metrics:
We select peer companies with comparable revenue size with HSG both withinVietnam and APAC region. As per the comparable table above, there are twoobservations to be made: (1) HSG enjoyed an above average growth rate,margin and profitability relative to peers (2) The Company achieving this withrelative modest leverage.
We believe HSG should generally trade at a premium to its peers group.However, the drawback is that the commodity cycle affects all companies inthe sector and every companies’ multiples will compress at the same time.
HSG seems underpricedrelative to its historical P/Eand EV/EBIT band…
Regional peers are tradingwithin too wide a range,most likely due to differencesin market index trading levelsand other country specificfactors…
Metrics HSG’sLocal Peers’
MedianRegional Peers’
Median
Gro
wth Avg 5 Yrs Sales Growth
Avg 5 Yrs EPS GrowthTTM Sales Growth
17.3%40.2%2.4%
7.7%85.5%8.0%
1.3%52.0%-0.3%
Mar
gin Gross Margin
EBITA MarginNet Margin
23.3%11.9%8.9%
9.5%7.3%4.8%
9.8%4.2%1.8%
Pro
fita
bili
ty ROEROICDividend Yield
41.0%16.8%5.5%
41.1%11.7%3.5%
2.7%4.1%1.4%
Cre
dit Net Debt/Equity
Net Debt/EBITEBIT/Interest Exp
1.3x2.4x
10.2x
0.9x4.7x2.7x
1.5x8.6x1.9x
Val
uat
ion
P/EP/BEV/SalesEV/EBITDAEV/EBITA
1.3x2.4x
10.2x5.5x6.9x
0.9x4.7x2.7x5.8x6.8x
1.5x8.6x1.9x8.2x
15.1x
…thus we prefer local peersin making comparison andtheir multiples implies thatHSG is fairly priced
Source: Bloomberg, TVS
3.0x
5.0x
7.0x
9.0x
11.0x
13.0x
15.0x
1/2/2013 1/2/2014 1/2/2015 1/2/2016 1/2/2017
P/E Trading Range
TTM P/E -1Std 3 Yr Average +1Std
Source: Bloomberg, TVS
3.0x
5.0x
7.0x
9.0x
11.0x
13.0x
15.0x
1/2/2013 1/2/2014 1/2/2015 1/2/2016 1/2/2017
EV/EBIT Trading Range
TTM EV/EBIT -1Std 3 Yr Average +1Std
…but this is likely due to asurprisingly strong 2016pushing up earnings ratherthan a re-rating of multiple
Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation7
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Valuation Summary & Conclusion
Combining various valuation methods and parameters we arrive at 3scenarios:
We thus recommend a NEUTRAL rating for HSG’s stock as of April 5th 2017
Key risks to valuation models
- Upward revision can be due to (1) Strong demand from construction sectorpersist, leading to higher volume growth (2) The recent anti-dumping onChina imported steel allow HSG to capture more market shares
- Downward revision can be due to (1) Faster margin compressed from acommodity crash (2) Higher interest rate pushing up HSG’s interestexpense while slowing down demand at the same time
- 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 200,000
RP EV/EBITDA
RP EV/Sales
RP EV/EBITA
RP P/B
RP P/E
LP EV/EBITDA
LP EV/Sales
LP EV/EBITA
LP P/B
LP P/E
Historical EV/EBIT
Historical P/E
FCFE
Valuation Summary(1)
Min Point 25th Point Mid Point 75th Point Max Point
Source: TVS’s Estimate
We recommend a Hold ratingfor HSG stock with a targetprice of VND 51,100, implyinga +1.0% return, with dividendunaccounted for
Scenarios Target Price Implied Return Probability Weight
Bear Case VND 42,300 -16.4% 30%
Base Case VND 50,600 +0.0% 50%
Bull Case VND 65,600 +29.6% 20%
Aggregate VND 51,100 +1.0% 100%
Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation8
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Income Statement (VND bn) 2014A 2015A 2016A Q1 2017 Balance Sheet (VND bn) 2014A 2015A 2016A Q1 2017
Net sales 14,990 17,468 17,894 5,767 Cash and equivalents 156 277 577 228
Cost of sales 13,240 14,869 13,717 4,720 Financial investment - - - -
Gross profit 1,750 2,599 4,176 1,047 Accounts receivable 1,259 1,110 1,152 937
Selling expenses 693 869 1,197 314 Inventory 4,747 3,544 4,822 4,968
General administration expenses 327 447 756 195 Prepaid expenses, other CA 237 239 507 867
Other operating income/(expenses) (1) - - - Total current assets 6,400 5,169 7,057 7,956EBITDA 1,039 1,704 2,685 693 Property and equipment
Depreciation & Amortization 354 482 549 156 At cost 4,854 5,642 7,019 6,417
EBIT 685 1,223 2,136 537 Less accumulated depreciation (1,433) (1,902) (2,428) (2,439)
Net interest income/(expenses) - - - - Net property and equipment 3,421 3,740 4,591 3,978
Net investment income - - - - Net intangibles 0 0 0 400
Others (recurring) 10 3 (12) - Total investments 46 38 26 73
Pretax Profit 523 832 1,907 515 Other long - term assets 339 493 636 1,550
Income tax 113 179 403 75 Total Assets 10,206 9,441 12,310 13,957
Tax rate (%) 22 22 21 15 Account Payables 1,886 626 1,620 707
Minorities - - 3 0 Short-term debt 4,545 4,521 4,366 6,267
Net Income 410 653 1,504 440 Other current liabilities 436 408 771 718
EPS (basic VND, reported) 2,185 3,309 7,350 2,239 Total Current Liabilities 6,867 5,555 6,757 7,692
Weighted shares outstanding (mn) 188 189 196 196 Long-term debt 959 975 1,423 1,662
Other long-term liabilities - - 3 4
Common dividends declared (192) (144) (327) nm Total long-term liabilities 959 975 1,426 1,666
DPS (VND) 487 1,583 5,094 nm
Dividend Payout ratio (%) 46.8 22.1 21.7 nm Stockholders' equity 2,379 2,911 4,127 4,598
Dividend cover (x) 4.5x 2.1x 2.4x nm Common Equity 1,008 1,008 1,965 1,965
Treasury shares (81) (52) - -
Growth and Margin (%) 2014A 2015A 2016A Q1 2017 Capital surplus 452 487 552 552
Sales Growth (%) 27.5 16.5 2.4 47.4 Retained earnings 979 1,453 1,603 2,043
EBITDA Growth (%) (9.2) 64.0 57.5 61.4 Budget sources and other funds 22 15 7 37
EBIT Growth (%) (20.8) 78.4 74.7 79.3 Minority interest - - 3 -
Net Income Growth (%) (29.4) 59.1 130.4 135.0 Total liabilities and equity 10,206 9,441 12,310 13,957
EPS Growth (%) (28.3) 51.5 122.1 135.0 Capitalized leases 6 5 4 -
Gross Margin (%) 11.7 14.9 23.3 18.1 Capital employed 3,339 3,886 5,553 12,299
EBITDA Margin (%) 6.9 9.8 15.0 12.0
EBIT Margin (%) 4.6 7.0 11.9 9.3 Ratios (%) 2014A 2015A 2016A TTM
Net Income Margin (%) 2.7 3.6 8.1 7.6 ROE (%) 17.9 24.7 42.7 43.9
ROA (%) 4.7 6.6 13.8 15.5
Cash flow Statements (VNDbn) 2014A 2015A 2016A Q1 2017 ROIC (%) 13.4 18.1 31.9 19.1
Net Income 523 832 1,907 440 Inventory days 107.3 102.0 111.6 70.8
Adjustments for: Receivable days 24.3 24.8 23.1 11.5
Depreciation and amortization 354 482 549 156 Payable days 44.3 30.9 30.0 23.7
Change in inventories (1,727) 1,191 (1,279) (1,107) Asset Turnover (x) 1.7x 1.8x 1.6x 1.7x
Change in trade receivables (501) 70 (275) (146) Net debt/equity (x) 2.3x 1.8x 1.3x 1.7x
Change in trade payables 554 (1,092) 1,252 (886) Interest cover - EBIT(x) 0.2x 0.1x 0.1x 10.9x
Other operating cash flow (118) (203) (512) (1,231)
Cash flow from operations (915) 1,280 1,641 (1633) Valuation (Multiples) 2014A 2015A 2016A TTM
Net Capital expenditure (1,193) (735) (1,307) (806) EV / EBITDA (x) 9.4x 5.4x 5.0x 4.7x
Acquisition - - - - P/E (x) 10.3x 6.3x 5.7x 5.7x
Divestures - - - - Dividend Yield (%) 2.2 7.6 9.8 2.0
Other investments, net 2 4 5 (50) P/B (x) 1.8x 1.4x 2.0x 2.2x
Cash flow from investing (1,164) (707) (1,293) (856)
Equity issued (0) 65 116 -
Net borrowings 2,253 (363) 163 2,159
Dividends to shareholders (192) (144) (327) (0)
Cash flow from financing 2,060 (443) (48) 2,140
Net cash flow (21) 121 300 (349)
Opening cash 177 156 277 577 Notes: CA = current assets; CL = current liabilities; PP&E = Property and Equipment at Cost
Closing cash 156 277 577 228 Source: Thomson Reuters data, Thien Viet Securities model
Hoa Sen Group (HSG) – Initiation9
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ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I, Nguyen Khac Viet Bach, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect ourpersonal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is orwill be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
RATING and VIEWS
Buy (B), Neutral (N), Sell (S) – Analysts recommend stocks as Buys or Sell based on his own views. Beingassigned a Buy or Sell is determined by as total stock’s return (TSR) potential that represents the pricedifferentials between the current share price and the price target expected during the time horizon plusexpected current dividend yield. Any stock not assigned as Buy or Sell is deemed Neutral.
DISCLAIMER
Copyright©2017 by Thien Viet Securities Joint-Stock Company (TVS). ALL RIGHT RESERVED. This researchreport is prepared for the use of TVS clients and may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed as awhole or partially in any form or manner without the prior written consent of TVS. The information herein isobtained from various sources and TVS does not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor anyopinions expressed in this publication constitutes a buy or sell recommendation on any securities orinvestment. TVS therefore does not take any responsibilities for any investor’s decisions.
DISCLAIMER
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Buy Total Stock’s Return > 15%
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basis for determining an investment rating or target.
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