holiday hysteria: plan for perfection but prepare for pandemonium

HOLIDAY HYSTERIA: Plan For Perfec8on But Prepare For

Pandemonium Presented by Sponsored by

#HolidayCCS

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Today’s Panelists

Jim Davidson Director of Research, Bronto Software

Alicia Fiorletta Senior Editor, Retail TouchPoints

MODERATOR

Holiday Hysteria: Plan For Perfection But Prepare For Pandemonium

Jim Davidson Director of Research @JimSaidIt #HolidayCCS bronto.com/holidays

Today ééé -‐73 Days

Today ééé -‐73 Days

+73 Days êêê

Caffeinating the Consumer

Caffeinating the Consumer

Today

Stores Open GiEs Under $20 Shop by Price Doorbusters GiE Guides Online Only

Stores Open Late Days of Saving

Stores Closed Shop for Him/Her

Guaranteed Delivery

Shipping Deadlines In-‐Store Only GiE Cards Flash Sale

But I Don’t Wanna!!!

Thanksgiving, Black Friday & Cyber Monday Sales

$633

$1,042

$1,465

$766

$1,198

$1,735

Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 28) Black Friday (Nov. 29) Cyber Monday (Dec. 2)

2012 2013 comScore, 2013

TG, BF, CM Sales: Year-Over-Year Changes

comScore, 2013

32%

28%

17%

21%

15% 18%

Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 28) Black Friday (Nov. 29) Cyber Monday (Dec. 2)

2011-12 Change 2012-13 Change

Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving

Black Friday

Thanksgiving

Black Friday

Cyber Monday

Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving 2013 Trends: 180 Days Out

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-‐180

-‐176

-‐172

-‐168

-‐164

-‐160

-‐156

-‐152

-‐148

-‐144

-‐140

-‐136

-‐132

-‐128

-‐124

-‐120

-‐116

-‐112

-‐108

-‐104

-‐100

-‐96

-‐92

-‐88

-‐84

-‐80

-‐76

-‐72

-‐68

-‐64

-‐60

-‐56

-‐52

-‐48

-‐44

-‐40

-‐36

-‐32

-‐28

-‐24

-‐20

-‐16

-‐12 -‐8

-‐4 0 4 8 12

16

20

24

28

32

2011


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-‐180

-‐176

-‐172

-‐168

-‐164

-‐160

-‐156

-‐152

-‐148

-‐144

-‐140

-‐136

-‐132

-‐128

-‐124

-‐120

-‐116

-‐112

-‐108

-‐104

-‐100

-‐96

-‐92

-‐88

-‐84

-‐80

-‐76

-‐72

-‐68

-‐64

-‐60

-‐56

-‐52

-‐48

-‐44

-‐40

-‐36

-‐32

-‐28

-‐24

-‐20

-‐16

-‐12 -‐8

-‐4 0 4 8 12

16

20

24

28

32

2011 2012


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-‐180

-‐176

-‐172

-‐168

-‐164

-‐160

-‐156

-‐152

-‐148

-‐144

-‐140

-‐136

-‐132

-‐128

-‐124

-‐120

-‐116

-‐112

-‐108

-‐104

-‐100

-‐96

-‐92

-‐88

-‐84

-‐80

-‐76

-‐72

-‐68

-‐64

-‐60

-‐56

-‐52

-‐48

-‐44

-‐40

-‐36

-‐32

-‐28

-‐24

-‐20

-‐16

-‐12 -‐8

-‐4 0 4 8 12

16

20

24

28

32

2011 2012 2013


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-‐30 -‐29 -‐28 -‐27 -‐26 -‐25 -‐24 -‐23 -‐22 -‐21 -‐20 -‐19 -‐18 -‐17 -‐16 -‐15 -‐14 -‐13 -‐12 -‐11 -‐10 -‐9 -‐8 -‐7 -‐6 -‐5 -‐4 -‐3 -‐2 -‐1 0 1 2 3 4

2011


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-‐30 -‐29 -‐28 -‐27 -‐26 -‐25 -‐24 -‐23 -‐22 -‐21 -‐20 -‐19 -‐18 -‐17 -‐16 -‐15 -‐14 -‐13 -‐12 -‐11 -‐10 -‐9 -‐8 -‐7 -‐6 -‐5 -‐4 -‐3 -‐2 -‐1 0 1 2 3 4

2011 2012


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-‐30 -‐29 -‐28 -‐27 -‐26 -‐25 -‐24 -‐23 -‐22 -‐21 -‐20 -‐19 -‐18 -‐17 -‐16 -‐15 -‐14 -‐13 -‐12 -‐11 -‐10 -‐9 -‐8 -‐7 -‐6 -‐5 -‐4 -‐3 -‐2 -‐1 0 1 2 3 4

2011 2012 2013


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-‐30 -‐29 -‐28 -‐27 -‐26 -‐25 -‐24 -‐23 -‐22 -‐21 -‐20 -‐19 -‐18 -‐17 -‐16 -‐15 -‐14 -‐13 -‐12 -‐11 -‐10 -‐9 -‐8 -‐7 -‐6 -‐5 -‐4 -‐3 -‐2 -‐1 0 1 2 3 4

2011 2012 2013

•  Earlier buzz •  YoY references dip Thanksgiving Week •  2013 midway between previous years

Thanksgiving References: Year-Over Year Changes

0.0%

-0.9%

0.0%

-2.3%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.7%

-1.6%

0.2%

-0.2%

0.0%

-0.4%

-1.6%

-0.9% -1.3%

0.7% 1.3%

5.0%

0.0%

1.3%

-1.5%

0.7%

-1.4%

0.4%

-1.4% -1.5% -1.7% -1.7%

-3.6%

-6.1%

-1.2%

-1.9%

-0.3%

•  Stronger early push

•  Bigger bumps -10 Days

•  More dedicated emails on Thanksgiving Day

2012

vs

2011

Thanksgiving References: Year-Over Year Changes

0.0%

-0.9%

0.0%

-2.3%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.7%

-1.6%

0.2%

-0.2%

0.0%

-0.4%

-1.6%

-0.9% -1.3%

0.7% 1.3%

5.0%

0.0%

1.3%

-1.5%

0.7%

-1.4%

0.4%

-1.4% -1.5% -1.7% -1.7%

-3.6%

-6.1%

-1.2%

-1.9%

-0.3%

0.5%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

1.1%

1.9%

0.3%

1.9%

0.8%

-0.5%

0.7%

2.4%

1.6%

0.5%

-0.6% -0.2%

0.3%

-3.5%

-1.4%

1.4%

-1.0%

1.0%

-1.2%

1.9%

1.1%

-0.3% -0.2%

-1.7%

1.1%

3.5%

-0.3%

0.1%

1.8%

-30 -29 -28 -27 -26 -25 -24 -23 -22 -21 -20 -19 -18 -17 -16 -15 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

•  Stronger early push

•  Bigger bumps -10 Days

•  More dedicated emails on Thanksgiving Day

2012

vs

2011

20

13 v

s 20

12

Early November Thanksgiving Promotions Nov 9 SL: “Thanksgiving sale PLUS 20% off everything” Nov 22 SL: “Extra 25% OFF Thanksgiving Preview Sale! Order

Early for A Stress-Free Holiday”

Thanksgiving Day: Email Volume

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

12 AM

01 AM

02 AM

03 AM

04 AM

05 AM

06 AM

07 AM

08 AM

09 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

01 PM

02 PM

03 PM

04 PM

05 PM

06 PM

07 PM

08 PM

09 PM

10 PM

11 PM

2011 2012 2013

Thanksgiving Day Email Volume: YoY Changes

+0.5%

-2.6%

-0.6%

-1.7%

+0.2%

-2.2%

-3.5%

+3.4%

+1.1%

-0.2% -0.6%

-0.1%

+0.8% +1.2%

-0.9%

+1.5%

-2.8%

+0.4%

+5.0%

+0.8% +0.3%

-0.9%

+0.2%

+0.8%

-5%

-3%

-1%

1%

3%

5%

12AM

01AM

02AM

03AM

04AM

05AM

06AM

07AM

08AM

09AM

10AM

11AM

12PM

01PM

02PM

03PM

04PM

05PM

06PM

07PM

08PM

09PM

10PM

11PM

Thanksgiving Early AM

7am SL: “50% Off One Item! Happy Thanksgiving!”

Thanksgiving Early AM

7am SL: “50% Off One Item! Happy Thanksgiving!”

7am SL: “Online Exclusive - Enjoy up to 20% Off During our Thanksgiving Sale + Enjoy 30% Off Select Men's and Women's Sweaters”

Thanksgiving Evening 6:05pm SL: “Psst! 50% OFF Everything + FREE Ship, No Min Starts TONIGHT!”

6:40pm SL: “Black Friday Starts NOW! Get 50% Off Everything + Freebies!”

Thanksgiving Evening 6:05pm SL: “Psst! 50% OFF Everything + FREE Ship, No Min Starts TONIGHT!”

6:40pm SL: “Black Friday Starts NOW! Get 50% Off Everything + Freebies!”

Store hours? Store Locators?

Thanksgiving Day: Emails Sent per Retailer

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

Thanksgiving Black Friday Cyber Monday

2011 2012 2013

Thanksgiving Day: Emails Sent per Retailer

82%

17%

1% 1%

71%

27%

1% 0%

68%

26%

4% 2%

1 2 3 4

2011 2012 2013

A 4-Email Thanksgiving Sent From Subject Line

06:12 AM Jos. A. Bank Happy Thanksgiving -‐ Enjoy Over 30 BLACK FRIDAY DOORBUSTERS Today with FREE Shipping, No Minimum! 10:40 AM Jos. A. Bank Select from Over 30 DOORBUSTERS Plus Enjoy FREE Shipping, No Minimum! 03:32 PM Jos. A. Bank FREE Shipping, No Minimum on BLACK FRIDAY DOORBUSTERS 07:43 PM Jos. A. Bank Enjoy Incredible Black Friday Prices Now -‐ with FREE Shipping, No Minimum!

Black Friday

Black Friday 2013 Trends: 180 Days Out

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-‐181

-‐177

-‐173

-‐169

-‐165

-‐161

-‐157

-‐153

-‐149

-‐145

-‐141

-‐137

-‐133

-‐129

-‐125

-‐121

-‐117

-‐113

-‐109

-‐105

-‐101

-‐97

-‐93

-‐89

-‐85

-‐81

-‐77

-‐73

-‐69

-‐65

-‐61

-‐57

-‐53

-‐49

-‐45

-‐41

-‐37

-‐33

-‐29

-‐25

-‐21

-‐17

-‐13 -‐9

-‐5

-‐1 3 7 11

15

19

23

27

31

2011 2012


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-‐181

-‐177

-‐173

-‐169

-‐165

-‐161

-‐157

-‐153

-‐149

-‐145

-‐141

-‐137

-‐133

-‐129

-‐125

-‐121

-‐117

-‐113

-‐109

-‐105

-‐101

-‐97

-‐93

-‐89

-‐85

-‐81

-‐77

-‐73

-‐69

-‐65

-‐61

-‐57

-‐53

-‐49

-‐45

-‐41

-‐37

-‐33

-‐29

-‐25

-‐21

-‐17

-‐13 -‐9

-‐5

-‐1 3 7 11

15

19

23

27

31

2011 2012 2013


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-‐30 -‐29 -‐28 -‐27 -‐26 -‐25 -‐24 -‐23 -‐22 -‐21 -‐20 -‐19 -‐18 -‐17 -‐16 -‐15 -‐14 -‐13 -‐12 -‐11 -‐10 -‐9 -‐8 -‐7 -‐6 -‐5 -‐4 -‐3 -‐2 -‐1 0 1 2 3

2011 2012 2013

Black Friday References: Year-Over Year Changes

1% 0%

-1%

0% 0% 0% 0%

0%

0% 0% 1%

1% 1% 1%

0% -1%

2% 1%

-1%

1% 1%

1%

5%

2% 2%

0%

1%

-2%

8%

-1%

0%

7%

-1%

0%

2012

vs

2011

•  More stable rumble

•  Steady march to actual day

•  Sharper post-BF decline

Black Friday References: Year-Over Year Changes

1% 0%

-1%

0% 0% 0% 0%

0%

0% 0% 1%

1% 1% 1%

0% -1%

2% 1%

-1%

1% 1%

1%

5%

2% 2%

0%

1%

-2%

8%

-1%

0%

7%

-1%

0%

-1%

0%

0%

0% 1%

1% 1%

-1%

1%

-1% -1% -1%

0% 1%

0% 1%

2%

1%

2% 1%

0%

3% 3% 3%

7%

5%

8%

9% 8%

0%

1% 1%

-2%

0%

-30 -29 -28 -27 -26 -25 -24 -23 -22 -21 -20 -19 -18 -17 -16 -15 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

2012

vs

2011

20

13 v

s 20

12

•  More stable rumble

•  Steady march to actual day

•  Sharper post-BF decline

Early November Black Friday Emails Nov 1 SL: “Online Only: Shop Early Black Friday & Save Up To 40%!”

Early November Black Friday Emails Nov 1 SL: “Online Only: Shop Early Black Friday & Save Up To 40%!” Nov 3 SL: “Let's Fast-Forward to BLACK FRIDAY Savings!”

Black Friday: Email Volume

0%

5%

10%

12 AM

01 AM

02 AM

03 AM

04 AM

05 AM

06 AM

07 AM

08 AM

09 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

01 PM

02 PM

03 PM

04 PM

05 PM

06 PM

07 PM

08 PM

09 PM

10 PM

11 PM

2011 2012 2013

Black Friday Email Volume: YoY Changes

-1.2%

-1.8% -1.6%

+1.5%

-1.9%

-0.1%

+0.4%

+0.8%

-0.6%

+2.7%

-0.2% -0.3%

+1.5%

-2.3%

-0.2%

+1.9% +1.8%

0.0%

+0.5% +0.7%

-0.4% -0.3% -0.3% -0.6%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

12AM

01AM

02AM

03AM

04AM

05AM

06AM

07AM

08AM

09AM

10AM

11AM

12PM

01PM

02PM

03PM

04PM

05PM

06PM

07PM

08PM

09PM

10PM

11PM

Black Friday Peak Hours

From Subject Line TigerDirect.com Take $30 Off Your Order + 100 More Black Friday Deals Added UlXmate Outlet Up to 90% Off Black Friday Special! Shop PBS Black Friday Savings: 20% Off + Free Shipping! Casa.com site Black Friday deals | 15% -‐ 60% off cookware, decor, storage, bedding & more Burts Bees FREE Body Bar with your $20 Black Friday purchase! Cooking.com Black Friday Blow-‐Out!

9am

Black Friday Peak Hours

From Subject Line Linens-‐N-‐Things Last Chance to Save on Black Friday Deals | Croscill Bedding Sets Overstock.com FINAL HOURS BLACK FRIDAY -‐ 15% off Coupon Sephora Black Friday Online Deals -‐ all weekend long! Target.com TODAY ONLY: Black Friday Sale now + 20% off coupon later NorthernTool.com Final Hours Black Friday Sale -‐ Don't Miss Out On Big Savings! Bakers Shoes 12 HOURS LEFT!!! 30% OFF ENTIRE SITE BLACK FRIDAY SALE!! Rakuten (Buy.com) Last Chance to Shop Black Friday Deals + Save Up to 75% | SHOP NOW

From Subject Line TigerDirect.com Take $30 Off Your Order + 100 More Black Friday Deals Added UlXmate Outlet Up to 90% Off Black Friday Special! Shop PBS Black Friday Savings: 20% Off + Free Shipping! Casa.com site Black Friday deals | 15% -‐ 60% off cookware, decor, storage, bedding & more Burts Bees FREE Body Bar with your $20 Black Friday purchase! Cooking.com Black Friday Blow-‐Out!

9am

3pm

Black Friday: Emails Sent per Retailer

0

0.5

1

1.5

2


2011 2012 2013

Black Friday: Emails Sent per Retailer

77%

21%

2% 1% 0.0% 0.0%

74%

22%

4% 0% 0.0% 0.4%

62%

31%

5% 1% 0.4% 0.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6

2011 2012 2013

A 4-email Black Friday

Sent From Subject Line 05:09 AM Brookstone BOGO 50% In-‐Store Deals RIGHT NOW! 08:24 AM Brookstone $15 OFF $49... $25 OFF $99... ENDS TONIGHT 12:11 PM Brookstone Best Gics Under $35 04:21 PM Brookstone $15 OFF $49... $25 OFF $99... HOURS LEFT

Cyber Monday

Cyber Monday 2013 Trends: 180 Days Out

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

-‐184

-‐180

-‐176

-‐172

-‐168

-‐164

-‐160

-‐156

-‐152

-‐148

-‐144

-‐140

-‐136

-‐132

-‐128

-‐124

-‐120

-‐116

-‐112

-‐108

-‐104

-‐100

-‐96

-‐92

-‐88

-‐84

-‐80

-‐76

-‐72

-‐68

-‐64

-‐60

-‐56

-‐52

-‐48

-‐44

-‐40

-‐36

-‐32

-‐28

-‐24

-‐20

-‐16

-‐12 -‐8

-‐4 0 4 8 12

16

20

24

28

2011 2012 2013

Cyber Monday 2013 Trends: 30 Days Out

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

-‐30 -‐29 -‐28 -‐27 -‐26 -‐25 -‐24 -‐23 -‐22 -‐21 -‐20 -‐19 -‐18 -‐17 -‐16 -‐15 -‐14 -‐13 -‐12 -‐11 -‐10 -‐9 -‐8 -‐7 -‐6 -‐5 -‐4 -‐3 -‐2 -‐1 0 1 2

2011 2012 2013

Cyber Monday References: Year-Over Year Changes

0.0% 0.0%

-0.8%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

-0.2%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

-0.4%

0.0% 0.0%

0.5% 0.5%

0.0% 0.0%

-1.7%

0.5%

0.0% 0.0%

0.3%

-0.3%

4.3%

1.6%

3.8%

-1.5%

0.4%

•  Early starts continue beyond Sunday

•  Less burst +/- 1Day •  Cyber Week

trends extend Cyber Monday

2012

vs

2011

Cyber Monday References: Year-Over Year Changes

0.0% 0.0%

-0.8%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

-0.2%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

-0.4%

0.0% 0.0%

0.5% 0.5%

0.0% 0.0%

-1.7%

0.5%

0.0% 0.0% 0.3%

-0.3%

4.3%

1.6%

3.8%

-1.5%

0.4%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.5%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

-0.5% -0.5%

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

-0.3%

0.7%

1.1%

-0.2% -0.2% -0.2%

-30 -29 -28 -27 -26 -25 -24 -23 -22 -21 -20 -19 -18 -17 -16 -15 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

•  Early starts continue beyond Sunday

•  Less burst +/- 1Day •  Cyber Week

trends extend Cyber Monday

2012

vs

2011

20

13 v

s 20

12

Cyber Monday: Email Volume

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

12 AM

01 AM

02 AM

03 AM

04 AM

05 AM

06 AM

07 AM

08 AM

09 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

01 PM

02 PM

03 PM

04 PM

05 PM

06 PM

07 PM

08 PM

09 PM

10 PM

11 PM

2011 2012 2013

Cyber Monday Email Volume: YoY Changes

-0.5%

-1.1%

-0.3%

-1.8% -1.7%

-0.8%

+0.2%

+3.1%

-2.6%

-1.2%

-0.4%

-1.7%

+2.7%

+0.6%

+1.2%

-2.8%

-0.2%

+1.6%

+3.2% +2.9%

-0.8%

+0.7%

-0.1% -0.1%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

12AM

01AM

02AM

03AM

04AM

05AM

06AM

07AM

08AM

09AM

10AM

11AM

12PM

01PM

02PM

03PM

04PM

05PM

06PM

07PM

08PM

09PM

10PM

11PM

Cyber Monday Peak Hours: 7am 7:01 am SL: “Last Day To Save Up To 30% Off Sitewide & Receive Free Shipping”

7:03 am SL: “Online exclusive! Monday only. Second helping of Holiday Coupons at Rooms To Go.”

Cyber Monday Peak Hours: 6-8pm

Cyber Monday: Emails Sent per Retailer

0

0.5

1

1.5

2


2011 2012 2013

Cyber Monday: Emails Sent per Retailer

71%

24%

4% 1% 0.0% 0.0%

62%

28%

8%

1% 0.4% 0.4%

48%

39%

10%

2% 1% 0.4%

1 2 3 4 5 6

2011 2012 2013

A 5-Email Cyber Monday Sent From Subject

12:31 AM bebe 30% OFF ENTIRE SITE -‐ Shop Cyber Monday now! 08:03 AM bebe CYBER MONDAY: 30% off, free shipping & fab gic! 02:01 PM bebe TODAY: 30% off endre site + deeper discounts 07:01 PM bebe Tick, tock...FINAL HOURS for 30% off! 11:01 PM bebe LAST CHANCE! 30% off endre site + free shipping on ALL orders

What did we learn?

What did we learn?

Thanksgiving Day

What did we learn?

Thanksgiving Day

Expect early November kick-‐off Prepare for overlapping themes An8cipate late day traffic spikes

What did we learn?

Thanksgiving Day

Black Friday


Don’t bury your message Ready your Black Friday narra8ve

Cover your mobile bases

What did we learn?

Thanksgiving Day

Black Friday

Cyber Monday


Don’t bury your message Ready your Black Friday narra8ve

Cover your mobile bases

Strategically remail Make a “Cyber Week” decision

Prepare your post-‐Cyber Monday plan

bronto.com/holidays

§  Speaking to mobile shoppers §  Messaging multi-channel offers §  Remailing dos and don’ts §  Clever holiday themes §  Total misses

…and more!

2013 Holiday Lookbooks

Questions? Holiday Hysteria: Plan For Perfection But Prepare For Pandemonium

Jim Davidson Director of Research @JimSaidIt #HolidayCCS bronto.com/holidays

#HolidayCCS

Q&A

#HolidayCCS

Q & A

Jim Davidson Director of Research, Bronto Software

Alicia Fiorletta Senior Editor, Retail TouchPoints

MODERATOR

#HolidayCCS

Thank You For Joining Us

The next session in this series…

Holiday Retail Readiness: Preparing For Peak 12PM ET / 9AM PT

ccs.retailtouchpoints.com/holiday-2014

holiday hysteria: plan for perfection but prepare for pandemonium

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