Honduras:Vulnerability assessment vs. Vulnerability post-hoc analysis

Tom Downing and Gina ZiervogelStockholm Environment Institute

Outline

Hondurus: Hurricane MitchVulnerability assessmentsPre-disaster vulnerability assessments DIPECHO World Bank Oxfam

Post-disaster assessment

Hondurus

‘Vulnerable’ countryExposure to floods and seismic activityHow is its vulnerability measured?   Risk mapping tools How do they compare to what

actually happens?

Risk mapping

Identifying vulnerable regions Regional National Local

Mapping Overlaying different indicators Combining indicators to reach an

index

DIPECHO with CRED and CIFEG

Project aim Regional approach to disaster

preparedness ‘determine risk levels in the region,

taking into account natural dangers and vulnerability criteria.’

DIPECHO methods

Reports CRED, CIFEG, DHA, IDNDR and other local and

European universities

Indicators for hazards      Frequency and distribution of disasters Number of people affected Geological and climatological data Vulnerability indicators Economic loss

Maps to show results

DIPECHO Risk Map

OXFAM

Project aim To develop a tool not for disaster experts

but for local experts

Objectives To assess risks, vulnerability and local capacity at a

regional level and adapted for local-level application To develop the capacity of institutions to tackle

emergency situations

OXFAM methods

Analysis of threats: incidence and distribution Natural Human agency

Analysis of vulnerability Relationship between level of risk, local capacities

and living conditions of local communities

Analysis of local capacity documented in risk map

World Bank with UNEP and CIAT

Project aim To decide where mitigation and reconstruction

projects should focus

MethodsFour layers of maps of vulnerability indices and indicators Environmental Population Social Infrastructure

World Bank Risk MapLEGEND

Red = Top ten high

risk municipalities

Orange = 10-25

Yellow = 25-60

Risk Map of Honduras – Top 60 High Risk Municipalities

Hondurus: Hurricane Mitch

October 19986000 deadDamage primarily from landslides and flooding

Pre and post vulnerability comparison

Pre-Mitch: Oxfam/World Bank Most vulnerable on west coast

Post-Mitch: World Neighbors/Morris et al Most vulnerable on east coast and

southern watershed

Other indicatorsAccessibility – World Bank Important for reaching affected

Land use – World Neighbors Sustainable farms faired better

Capacity Community disaster preparedness

Gender Lower health and educational status Harder to recover

Lessons learned

Vulnerability is a complex concept

Capturing the dynamics of specific

vulnerabilities is not easy

Is vulnerability mapping a useful

tool?