honolulu fourth quarter 2008 real estate report

8/14/2019 Honolulu Fourth Quarter 2008 Real Estate Report

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1,250 - H - - - - - - - I 1 1 - 1 I-l l- i l l l

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OAHUHOUSING

FP.t TRENDS HiCentral f*:lTHE HONOLULU BOARD OF REALTORS MLS!..J.aJVolume 18, Number 4

OVERALL MARKET CONDITIONS

Sales were very weak, but median pricesheld up in the residential housing marketon O'ahu in the fourth quarter. Therewere sales of only 607 single-familyhomes and 760 condominium unitsthrough the Board's MUltiple ListingService computer, well behind the figures of the market peak in the third quarter of2005 which had unit sales of I,324and 2,286, respectively. This quarter'ssales were lower for single-familyhomes by 19.1 % and 34.2% for condominiums compared to the same quarterlast year.

The fourth quarter median sales pricespaid for a single-family property showeda decline from the same q ~ a r t e r a yearago at $610,000, a manini loss of 2.4%.Since last quarter, the median hasdropped only 0.8% from $615,000. Thecondominium median price came in at$315,600, a decrease of just 1.4% from

last year.

When the number of sales are multipliedby the average sales prices, the total dollar sales volume is computed. The totaldollar volume generated by O'ahu residential sales fell to $722 million in thefourth quarter of 2008, and this was a29.7% decline from the same quatter ayear ago. It was the fourth consecutivetime that dollar volume fell below the $1billion mark since the market peak andrecord for quarterly dollar volume was

achieved three years ago, in the thirdquarter of 2005, at $1.810 billion andthis $1 billion milestone was firstachieved in the third quarter of 2003.

Another important statistic is the Dayson Market indicator which measures thetime a listing is on the market before asales agreement is reached and excludesescrow time. In the fourth quarter, bothsingle-family homes and condominiumsrequired a median market time of 57

Fourth Quarter , 2008

QUARTERLY UNIT SALES VOLUME

Units2 ,500 . . , . , . - - - -= . . : . . : : . . : .= . . . - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ,

2 , 2 5 0 - J . ! - - - - - - - - - - - - - - , , - - - - - 1 I I - - - - - - - - - - j

2 , 0 0 0 - l + - - - - - - - - - - - = - - - - f l - u . - - - - - - l I - l I - - - - - - - - - - {

1,750

750

500

250-

0 0 0 0 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o a o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o~ ~ W ~ ~ N W ~ ~ N W ~ ~ ~ W ~ ~ N W ~ ~ N W ~ ~ N W ~ ~ N N N N N N N N Na a a 0 0 a a a a0 0 0 a 0 a a a aa ~ N W ~ ~ m ~ rn

QUARTERLY :MEDIAN SALES PRICES

700-cr-_"'--T'--'h-'-'0""u""s""a!..!nd""s=- - - . .

6 0 0 - H - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - t . - .

300

200

100

o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o ~ o o o o o o o o ~ N W ~ ~ N W ~ ~ N W ~ ~ N W ~ ~ N W ~ ~ N W ~ ~ N W ~ ~ Naoa

Naa~

N N Na a 0a 0 aN W ~

N N Na a aa 0 a~ m ~

Naaro

Single-Family Condominium

days, with both indicators higher than atAfter declining to new lows for availthe same time a year ago. Comparingability of less than 1,000 units in 2004these statistics to last quarter shows thatand 2005, the number of listings inthe market continues to cool and salescreased rapidly during 2006, but thisspeeds again have gotten slower than thetrend stalled in 2007, resumed in 2008,sales times of 51 and 47 days, respec

tively, in the third quarter. (Continued on Page 7)

5 0 0 - H - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - = l

4 0 0 - H - - - - - - - - - - - ;


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FOURTH QUARTER 2008 OAHU HOUSING TRENDS - Page 2PRICE RANGE CHARTS

Th e Honolulu Board ofREALToRs

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES CONDOMINIUMS

30 0 - 39 9200 - 299

11

Less than 2005 0.8%

More than1000

79 13.0%

700 - 999120 19.8%

1.8%48 7.9%

500 - 69 9243 40.0%

40 0 - 49 9

Sales by Price Range

30 0 - 49 9291

25 0 - 29 9127 16.7%

38.3%

15 0 - 19970 9.2%

Inventory by Price Range50 0 - 699 250 - 299_

606 29.2% 359 13.5%

More than 500126 16.6%

Less than 10016 2.1%

100-14931 4.1%

200 - 24928 9 10.9%

262 12.6%

30 0 - 39 9700 - 999145 7.0%

43 5 20.9% 150 - 199

30 3 11.4%200 - 29954 2.6%

100 -149Less than 20 0 11 0 4.1/;

10 0.5% More than 1000567 27.3%

300 - 49 983 2 31.4%

All price ranges shown above are thousands of dollars ($000)

ABOUT THE HONOLULU BOARD OF REALTORS

The Voice for Real Estate on Oahu, the Honolulu Board ofREALTORSis one of the largest of 1,600 boards of REALTORS in the nation and is thelargest trade organization on Oahu. REALTOR membership, whichnumbers approximately 6,000, is available to licensed real estate brokers andagents who agree to adhere to a strict Code of Ethics as a condition ofmembership. Affiliate membership is available to non-licensees.

REALTOR membership in the Honolulu Board ofREALTORS offers avariety of benefits and services. These include the privilege of using theterm REALTOR and REALTOR-ASSOCIATE@, educational courses andseminars, access to the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) computerizedon-line information system, real estate forms, books and products at specialmember rates and informative, award-winning publications from the stateand national REALTOR@ organizations.

OAHU HOUSING TRENDS is a quarterly publication ofth e Honolulu Board o f REAL TORS. Th e annualsubscription rate is $26.00 fo r members and is included in themembership dues. Non-member subscriptions are $52.00;single issues are $15.00. Fo r subscription information, callth e Honolulu Board of REALTORS s@ at 808-732-3000.Multiple copies o f OAHU HOUSING TRENDS ca n bepurchased, if ordered in advance.

2009, Honolulu Board of REALTORS@ Copy permission isfreely granted but full attribution of source is required on all copiesand reprints. Publish the following disclaimer if you arepara-phrasing any of tile text from this report: "Use of this data doesnot imply any endorsement of my interpretation by the HonoluluBoard ofREALTORS@"

Visit the HER we b site at : http://www.hicentral.com


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FOURTH QUARTER 2008 MARKET CHANGES OAHU HOUSING TRENDS - Page 3The Honolulu Board of REALTORS if!)

CHANGE IN NUMBER OF SALES2008:04 vs 2007:04

Metro Oahu

Diamond Head

Hawaii l u i

Railua

Kaneohe

North Shore

Cent ra l Oahu

Leeward Coas t

EwaPla in

Makald lo

Waipahu [ ~ : : t ~ : : t ~ ~ ~ ~ 1earl City L-60 -55 -50 -45 .40 35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5

Percent

Single-Family Home Condominium.

Almost all neighborhoods on O'ahu had sales Josses in thefourth quarter, except for Diamond Head single-familyhomes and Hawaii Kai condominiums, which expanded by5.0% and 4.9%, respectively. Overall O'ahu resales were607 and 760, for single-family dwellings and condominiums, down 19.1% and 34.2%, respectively, compared to

the same quarter one year ago. When compared to the results of the third quarter, sales declined by 15.8% and25.1 %, respecti vely.

Besides the two areas mentioned above, the areas with theleast sales losses for single-family homes in the fOUlthquarter included Ewa Plain, down 4.1 %,and Kailua, down5.2%.

Condominium sales slid the least in North Shore, with nochange, and Leeward Coast, of f 5.6%.

The inventory of available listings declined a bit duringthe fourth quarter, down 0.6% for single-family homesand 2.4% condomin ium units since last qUaJter. Lookingat the changes since last year, however, the inventory hasincreased for single-family homes by 7.6% and 10.0%for condominiums. Median asking prices for single-family homes have declined since last year, by 7.1 %,to $696,300, and the condomin ium asking price was of f0.6%, to $340,700. List prices have declined by 2.4%and 1.6%, respectively, since last quarter.

There was shrinkage of available dwellings in only fiveneighborhoods. Both property types had declines in

Makakilo, down 24.2% and 14.5%, respectively, andsingle-family homes in Ew a Plain, down 8.1 %, andMetro O'ahu, off4. 2%, and Leeward Coast, down 0.5%.For condominiums, the number of for-sale units declined only in Makakilo, with all other areas having anexpanded count in the fourth quarter.

CHANGE IN ACTIVE INVENTORY2008:04 vs 2007:04

More L1sllngs >

ALL OAHU

Metro Oahu

Diantond Head

Hawaii I{ai

Kai lua

n:aneohe

North Shore

Centra l Oahu

Leeward Coas t

EwaPla in

Malta,Idlo

Waipahu

Pear l City

< - Fewer Ustlngs

-,.

I~ . I

_ I

I : ~ -

-~ II

. - I

-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 SS 60 65 10

. Percen t Single-Family l10me III Condominium

CHANGE IN MEDIAN SALES PRICE2008:04 vs 2007:04


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I1,I

FOURTH QUARTER2008 OAHU HOUSING TRENDS - Page 4AREA DATA ANALYSESThe Honolulu Board of REAL TORS

I,

DIAMOND HEAD AREA

SF dwellings in the Diamond Head areahad the best sales expansion on the islandin the fourth quarter, adding 5.0% to lastyear's production, and the MSP for SFproperties rose by 3.0%. CO sales lagged,however, by 24.1 %, and the CO MSP was

off21.1 %. DOM's increased to 42 and 65days, for SF and CO properties, respectively. Listing counts were up by 39.6%and 16.1% for CO units, and both MLP'slost ground. Although lower, theWaialae-Kahala neighborhood again hadthe highestMSP on O'ahu, at$1 ,295,000.

HAWAII KAI AREA

CO sales increased in the Hawaii Kai areaby 4.9%, while SF sales declined 21.6%.Both MSP's decreased, however, with SFof f 4.8%, to $874,500, and the CO MSP

down 12.8%, to $510,000. Both DOM'swere speedier, with the CO DOM the onlyCO area on O'ahu to quicken. The SFMLP slipped 16.2%, to $1,099,300, andthe CO MLP dropped by 12.8%, to$5&1,800. The number of CO listsjumpeda large 56.3% during the fourth quarter.

KAILUA AREA

Sales c o n t i n u ~ d to decline in Kailua thisquarter, by 5.2% and 30.0%, respectively.The SF MSP declined by 8.0%, to$715,000, but on theother side of the market the CO MSP added 3.6%, to$427,500, the best gain on O'ahu. The CODOM lost gr.ound as sales speed increased, to 45 days, but SF posted a decline of 6 days, down to 39, the quickeston the island. Availability rose by 9.5%and 12.5%, respectively, but the MLP'swere mixed. The SF MLP was up 4.0%, to$1,039,300, but the CO MLP fell 7.6%, to$440,300. Finally, both QAR's were weJ]above the O'ahu average statistics.

KANEOHE AREA

Sales were of f in the Kaneohe area in thefourth quarter, SF by 16.4% and CO down35.7%. Both MSP's lost ground also, withthe SF MSP of f 2.5% and the CO MSP8.4% lower. Both SF and CO listings expanded, the latter by an enormous 70.8%,while the MLP's were lower than last year,by 9.6% and 6.7%, respectively. QAR'swere mixed, with the CO QAR above theisland average at 32.4%, and The SF QARbelow at 25.1 %.

The Honolulu Board of REALTORSanalyzes and prepares statistics for 17 single family home and 19 condominiumneighborhoods on Oahu. For this report,these neighborhoods are grouped togetherinto twelve geographic areas so that singlefamily homes and condominiums can beevaluated together. The twelve areas aredefined by Tax Map Key (TMK) numbersas shown in the Area and NeighborhoodData Table printed in this report.

METRO O'AHU AREA

The Metro 0 ' ahu area contains the highestconcentration of CO units on Oahu and is0 ' ahu' s most populous area. In the fourthquarter, CO sales were of f 34.6%, but theCO MSP advanced 2.5%. Sales volume

**AL L OAHU **

Metro Oahu

Diamond Head

Hawai i I


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FOURTH QUARTER 2008

Type and Zone and

AREA AND NEIGHBORHOOD DATA TABLE OAHU HOUSING TRENDS - Page 6The Honolulu Board of REALTORS

#FOURTH QUARTER, 2008

Median # Median #THIRD QUARTER, 2008

Median # MedianNeighborhood Sections Sales Sales Price DOM Lists List Price Sales Sales Price DOM Lists List Price

METRO OAHU AREA:SF Moanalua-Kalihi 1-1 to 1-7 29 $599,000 60 96 $650,000 39 $600,000 55 98 $689,100SF Honolulu 1-8,9, All 2 39 $765,000 50 110 $904,900 52 $845,700 42 98 $987,900CO Moanalua-Salt Lake 1-1 43 $280,000 47 60 $304,400 44 $292,000 35 66 $303,700

CO Kalihi-Palama 1-2 to 1-9 19 $329,000 70 45 $408,700 14 $277,500 24 42 $395,200CO Downtown uuanu 2-1,2-2 63 $375,000 67 188 $542,800 89 $436,500 54 207 $555,800CO Ala Moana-Kakaako 2-3 66 $395,000 43 315 $424,900 79 $478,000 65 294 $421,600CO Waikiki 2-6 113 $250,000 78 667 $341,700 204 $271,800 55 677 $349,600CO Makiki-Moiliili 2-4, 2-5, 2-7 to 2 96 $310,000 54 252 $333,300 129 $312,900 37 266 $338,400

DIAMOND HEAD AREA:SF Kapahulu-Diamond Hd 3-1 to 3-4SF Waialae-Kahala 3-5Sf Aina Haina-Kuliouou 3-6 to 3-8CO Kapahulu-Kuliouou 3-1 to 3-8

HAWAII KAI AREA:SF Hawaii Kai 3-9CO Hawaii Kai 3-9

KAILUA AREA:

39 $830,000 29 101 $1,090,7008 $756,500 31 114 $1,007,00030 $1,635,000 77 103 $2,130,0009 $1,295,000 41 96 $1,995,00016 $1,217,500 28 53 $1,876,2007 $1,015,000 66 65 $1,926,10034 $419,200 63 113 $470,5002 $415,000 65 108 $484,500

34 $777,000 39 132 $1,107,8000 $874,500 59 136 $1,099,30048 $525,500 59 121 $599,1003 $510,000 41 125 $581,800

SF Kailua-Waimanalo 4-1 to 4-3,4-4* 55 $715,000 39 162 $1,039,300 72 $766,500 57 178 $947,600CO Kailua-Waimanalo 4-1 to 4-3, 4-4* 14 $427,500 45 36 $440,300 22 $411,500 67 34 $498,200

KANEOHE AREA:SF Kaneohe 4-4*,4-5,4-6,4-7 42 $634,500 58 111 $713,300 50 $642,500 37 124 $787,700SF Windward Coast 4-7*, 4-8 to 5-4 9 $627,000 63 92 $789,600 19 - $640,000 46 89 $799,000CO Kaneohe 4-4*,4-5,4-6,4-7 33 $400,000 52 88 $374,400 33 $420,000 45 90 $403,700CO Windward Coast 4-7*, 4-8 to 5-4 3 $183,000 137 23 $297,500 1 $425,000 178 29 $301,200

NORTH SHORE AREA:SF North Shore 5-5 to 5-9, All 6 8 $832,500 91 131 $1,127,800 26 $827,500 68 132 $1,188,700CO North Shore 5-5 to 5-9, All 6 6 $243,500 110 53 $394,200 7 $392,000 76 59 $398,700

CENTRAL OAHU AREA:SF Wahiawa All 7SF Mililani 9-4*,9-5CO Wahiawa All 7CO Milila ni 9-4*, 9-5

LEEWARD COAST AREA:SF Makaha-NanakuJi All 8CO Makaha-NanakuJi All 8

EWA PLAIN AREA:SF Ewa Plain 9-1CO Ewa Plain 9-1

MAKAKILO AREA:SF Makakilo 9-2, 9-3

CO Makakilo 9-2,9-3

WAIPAHU AREA:SF Waipahu 9-4*CO Waipahu 9-4*

PEARL CITY AREA:SF Pearl City-Aiea 9-6 to 9-9CO Pearl City-Aiea 9-6 to 9-9

AL L OAHU:SINGLE FAMILY

CONDOMINIUM

1450

352

2617

11640

20

23

4331

3273

607760

$450,500$572,000$147,000$300,000

$342,500$154,000

$457,500$299,000

$500,000

$265,000

$535,000$260,000

$602,500$295,000

$610,000$315,600

73504853

44122

7362

86

54

6445

5145

5757

399323

116

196135

327171

72

53

14276

96118

2,0792,651

$553,200$650,100$184,700$299,100

$376,500$176,600

$507,400$324,900

$636,500

$296,300

$573,600$276,300

$625,100$294,300

$696,300$340,700

1756

966

3719

12954

24

20

3757

4486

721

1,015

$410,000 61 37 $537,400$601,000 39 104 $657,600

. $235,000 100 20 $184,100$302,500. 39 116 $301,500

$361,000 47 178 $385,900$148,000 76 154 $173,400

$451,000 80 361 $527,300$327,500 44 167 $331,300

$567,000 74 77 $590,300

$324,500 5857 $292,700

$529,000 40 137 $584,600$290,000 33 78 $281,400

$614,000 26 88 $660,100$301,400 40 126 $310,800

$615,000 51 2,092 $713,100

$322,000 47 2,715 $346,400

An asterisk (*) indicates tha t the section is split between two neighborhoods.


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40

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0, ,

20

FOURTH QUARTER 2008 GLOSSARY OF TERMS & ABBREVIATIONS OAHU HOUSING TRENDS - Page 7The Honolulu Board ofREALToRS

988298829882988298829882988298829882~ ~ ~ ~ ~ N N N Na 0 0 0 0 0 0 a ao 0 0 0 0 0 0 a ao ~ N W ~ ~ m ~ 00

AREA - A grouping of neighborhoods within ageographic boundary defined by the specificTM K zones, sections and plats shown on theData Table page. This report contains data fortwelve (12) such areas which, in total, comprisethe island of Oahu.

AVERAGE - Synonymous with mean.

CO - Condominium, Apartment, Co-op orTownhouse.

DOM - Days on Market. This number of daysbetween the time a property is listed and a salescontract is accepted. In MLS terms, it is thenumber of days from the List Date to the Contract Date. In this report, it is expressed as a median number of the Days on Marke t for a groupof properties. This statistic is calculated usingthe List Date for the most current MLS numberand does not reflect re-lists.

HBR - Honolulu Board ofREALTORS.

MEAN - Mean is the mathematical average of aseries of numbers.MEDIAN - Median is a mathematical term thatdescribes the midpoint of a sorted series ofnum-

bel'S. It is the number in the middle of the seriesso that half the numbers are below the medianand half are above. The median is always usedwhen reporting sales prices, days on market,etc., to eliminate the skewing effect that veryhigh or very low numbers will have on theaverage.

MLP - Median List (asking) Price.

MLS - Multip le Listing Service. The computerized information system that contains all of thedata on real estate listings, sales, etc. Enteredby, or on behalf of, HBR members. All MLS infonTIation is owned by HBR and is copyrightprotected.

MSP - Median Sales Price.

NEIGHBORHOOD - A neighborhood is thesmallest geographic grouping of TMK zones,sections and plats for which statistical information is tracked. The Research Department divides Oahu into seventeen (17) single family

home and nineteen (19) condominium neighborhoods which are shown in the Area andNeighborhood Data Table.

PERCENT CHANGE - The percent change iscalculated by dividing 100 times the amount ofchange by the older information. For example,if computing the percent change between salesof2,300 in this time period and 2,000 in the lastperiod, the divisor would be 2,000 and the numerator would be 100 times the difference insales (2)00 - 2,000 = 300) which equals

+15.0%.QAR - QUaJierly Absorption Rate - An absorption rate, expressed in percentage terms, relatesthe number of properties sold during the quarterto the average number of active listings duringthe qualier. For example, if there were 940 listings and 94 sales, the quarterly absorption ratewould be 10.0%.

SF - Single Family Home.

SOLD - A property is categorized as SOLDonly after closing and recordation. The time delay between the signing of a sales contract and

the clealing of escrow is nominally between twoand four months.

TM K - Tax Map Key.

(Continued from Page I)

but actually declined a bit this qUaIier.The number of listings being activelymarketed for sale were 2,079 single-family homes and 2,651 condominiums, decreases of 0.6% and 2.4%, respectively, since last quarter, but increases of 7.6% and 10.0% since thesame quarter last year.

Asking prices for both housing types declined from the levels oflastyear and lastquarter. The list prices during the fourthquarter were $696,300 and $340,700, forsingle-family homes and condominiums, respectively, declines of7.1% and0.6% from the same time last year. Compared to the third quarter, single-familyhome asking prices have dropped by2.4% and 1.6%, from $713,100 and$346,400, respectively.

ANNUAL STATISTICS

The figures for all of 2008 show the severe decline in sales volume on O'ahu.The total number of single-family homesales was 2,741 and 3,933 condominiums changed hands for declines of24.4% and 28.5%, respectively. The single-family home median price decreasedonly 3.0%, to $624,000, and the condominium median price in 2008 was unchanged at $325,000.

MEDIAN TIME ON THE MARKET

Number of Days1 0 0 - r - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ,

8 0 J , J - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - i

Single-Family

MARKET OUTLOOK

Where is all the money the US Government gave to banks and lending institutions? They don't seem to be lending it.Would-be buyers with pretty good creditscores can't get loans. What's up?

The housing markets, especially on theMainland, cont inue to reel from the difficulty in obtaining mOligages. Some

Condominium

Mainland prices are down 50% in justone year and, I believe, one of the majorproblems is lack of financing availabilityto help clear out inventories. WhileO'ahu properties have shown only aminimal price downtum, look out forwhat's coming if this poor financial environment continues. Pricing appears tobe the key to moving local inventory anddon't expect a recovery in the housingmarket any time in the short-term.

honolulu fourth quarter 2008 real estate report

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