1. Horizon ScanningEngaging with the Future
DrChris Yapp
Chris_yapp@hotmail.co.uk
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CIKTNChris Yapp

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Futures Thinking
Contingency planning
Scenarios
Systems thinking
Complexity theory
Ethnographic Futures
CIKTNChris Yapp
3. What type of future?
Desired( my plan)
Desirable( Plan B)
Plausible ( time to rethink?)
Consensus ( my contrarian plan)
Unpleasant( dont want to go there)
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4. Unpicking Assumptions
The problem is that companies just dont get Web 2.0.
Thebenefits are out there and the tools are cheap. Planning is expensive and wasteful. Get on with realising the benefits
A Social Media guru
While at thesame time...
Predicted 100% compound growth for 5 years
All existing services would still be there and free
Values of todays teenagers would still be their values in 10 years
Governments wouldnt regulate...
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5. Dimensions of the Current Challenge
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structural
Economic
Change
Market Step Change
NichePortfolio
Reactive
Proactive
Strategic
Response
Sitting Tight
Mopping up
cyclical
CIKTNChris Yapp
6. Dynamics of the Current Challenge
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New Entrant
structural
Economic
Change
Market Step Change
NichePortfolio
Reactive
Proactive
Strategic
Response
Sitting Tight
Mopping up
cyclical
CIKTNChris Yapp
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Problem Types
Do we know where
We are going?
YES
Best practice
Scaling practice
TASK:
Operational
Management
TASK:
Process
Development
NO
YES
Do we know
How to get
There?
TASK:
Direction
Setting
TASK:
Concept
Creation
Next practice
Emerging practice
NO
AfterEddie Obeng
CIKTNChris Yapp
8. Whoseproblem?
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High
Political
System
Think
Tank
Complexity
Consultant
Wisdom of
The Crowds
Academic
/Expert
Low
Low
High
Uncertainty
CIKTNChris Yapp
9. What value?
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High
Political
System
Think
Tank
Track record
Complexity
Ideas
Consultant
Wisdom of
The Crowds
Knowledge
Academic
/Expert
Low
Low
High
Uncertainty
CIKTNChris Yapp
10. During Step Change?
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High
Political
System
Consultancy squeezed as limited track record
Think
Tank
Complexity
Consultant
Wisdom of
The Crowds
Academic
/Expert
Low
Low
High
Uncertainty
CIKTNChris Yapp
11. Horizon Scanning
'the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments, including (but not restricted to) those at the margins of current thinking and planning.'
Sigma Scan
Politics
Economics
Science and Technology
Environment
Society
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Outsights-IPSOSMori
www.sigmascan.org
UK Office of Science and Technology
CIKTNChris Yapp
12. The Ways of not knowing
H
Knowledge
Of Outcome
Domain
Of Risk
Domain of
Uncertainty
Knowledge
Of Probability
L
H
Domain of
Ignorance
Domain of
Ambiguity
L
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13. Why do we get it wrong?
Today!!!
Prisoners of Language
Timing
Unintended consequences
Sources of Innovation
Ask the wrong question/people?
Culture
Events
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14. Not understanding today
Societies taboos
Poor data for emerging trends
Examples
Police
Paedophiles
Education
International/global interconnectivity
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15. Timing
Inevitability-Predictability
Risk and uncertainty
Unforseen barriers
Social factors
Long-term skill developments
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16. Timing
In the Future blind People will
Be able to drive cars
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17. Results
Probability 0.9 with some 0.2
Today with Resources: 1-3 years
In practice:3-10 years
In reality: 10-100 years
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CIKTNChris Yapp
18. Outsights Drivers of 21st century
1. War, terrorism and insecurity
2. Layers of power
3. Economic and financial stability
4. BRICs and emerging powers
5. Five flows of globalisation
6. Intellectual property
7. Health
8. Mobility
9. Population
10. Trust and reputation
11. Values and beliefs
12. Identity
13. Consumerism
14. Networks and connectivity
15. Space
16. Science futures
17. Science and society
18. Resource availability
19. Climate change
20. Environmental degradation
21. Urbanisation
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CIKTNChris Yapp
19. 1066 and All That
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Roundheads
Right
Cavaliers
Wrong
Romantic
Repulsive
20. The Futurists Dilemma
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?
Focussed
Theme
High
Credibility
Broad
Vision
Low
Credibility
Right
Wrong
21. A Rose by any other name..
Bouba
Kiki
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22. Learning from the edge:Synesthesia
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23. Emery and Trist
CausalTexture Theory
Four Textures
Placid Random
Placid Clustered
Disturbed Reactive
Turbulent
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24. System and Environment
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Environment
System
25. TheLinks
L11Linking components of the system
L22Linking components of the environment
L12Linking the system to the environment(planning)
L21Linking the environment to the system (learning)
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26. The Four Links
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Environment
L21
Organisation
L22
L12
L11
27. Placid Random
Organisation
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Structure of Field
Resources, goals and noxiants
are randomly distributed in the
Field. Perfect MarketConditions
L11
Characteristics of successful coping
Response strategies in the type
Experience-based tactics
Local optimization in thehere and now
Salient Links
L11
28. Placid Clustered
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Environment
Structure of Field
Resources, goals and/or noxiants are located in advantageous(high ground) positions
L21
Organisation
Characteristics of successful coping/response strategy in the type
Strategizing for securing or accessinghigh ground locations and identifying right placing of outputs
Attending to distinctive competence and resource
Centralizing operations
L11
Salient Links
L11, L21
29. Disturbed Reactive
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Environment
Structure of Field
Oligopoly
Similar organizations in head-to-head competition
More L12 and L21
L21
Organisation
L12
Characteristics of successful coping/response strategy in type
Game-based strategies
Communicating with others to influence inputs
Mounting operational campaigns
Rapid decision making
coming to terms with others sharing same field
L11
Salient Links
L11, L12,L21
30. Turbulence
Organisation
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Structure of Field
The whole common ground is in motion.
L22 uncertain and changing, taking on a life of its own
Distinctions betweenL12-L21 and L22 begin to break down
Environment
L21
L22
L12
L11
Characteristics of successful coping/response strategy in the type
No survival for systems acting alone
Collaborative strategies among dissimilar organizations in the field
Salient Links
L11, L12,L21, L22
Distinction between 1 and 2begin to break down
31. Prisoners of Language
1,000,000 cars
People will always want shoes
Classroom of the Future
Library with no books
5 Computers
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Who do you ask?
What do you teach a child at 5 years old
So that they will be IT Literate at 20?
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Core to the problem..
The different disciplines involved
The hardware doesnt exist
The software hasnt been written
Some of the key companies havent yet been formed
So who do you ask?
CIKTNChris Yapp
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Organisational culture
Specialists and generalists
Personal credibility
Tolerance of uncertainty
Story telling
Leadership
CIKTNChris Yapp
35. Events
9/11
BSE
Coalition Government
Middle East: Tunisia, Egypt......
BLACK SWANS
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36. Data-driven Innovation/Co-creation
Web 2.0 bubble?
Sustainability of Free/Freemium..
Impact of Regulation, e.g. EU
Privacy, security
Business models?
Interdependencies...
IPR regimes
Everything has a history...?
Demographics....
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37. Thank You!
Any Questions?
My BCS blog: http://www.bcs.org/content/conBlog/20
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CIKTNChris Yapp