hotel industry overview orla convention: oregon lodging industry trends breakout
DESCRIPTION
Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout. Allison Cowan Business Development Associate. Welcome!. Allison Cowan Business Development Associate. linkedin.com/in/allisoncowan. Allie_STR. 71%. of U.S. rooms participate with STR. STR provides monthly, - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Hotel Industry OverviewORLA Convention:
Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout
Allison CowanBusiness Development Associate
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Welcome!
Allison CowanBusiness Development Associate
linkedin.com/in/allisoncowan Allie_STR
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71%of U.S. rooms participate with STR
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STR provides monthly, weekly and daily reports to more than
worldwide hotels, which represent
rooms.
47,000
6.1 million
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Raw Data Collected:Total Rooms Available (Supply)
Total Rooms Sold (Demand)
Total Room Revenue (Revenue)
KPIs(Key Performance Indicators)Occ(Occupancy)
ADR(Average Daily Rate)
RevPAR(Revenue per Available Room)
What We Do
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Presentation is available for download.
To view this presentation, go to the “Data” drop-down menu on www.HotelNewsNow.com and click “Data Presentations”.
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AgendaOctober 14, 2013
• Total U.S. Overview
• State of Oregon
• Deeper Dive Into Oregon
• Pipeline
• Future Performance
• Q&A
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Total U.S. Review
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Demand Growth Back to Normal. RevPAR Driven by ADR.
% Change
Supply* 1.8 bn 0.7% Demand* 1.1 bn 2.4%Occupancy 62.0% 1.7% ADR* $109 4.0% RevPAR* $68 5.8% Room Revenue* $121 bn 6.6%
Total U.S. – Key Performance Indicators12 MMA through August 2013* All Time High
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July 2013: Highest Monthly Room Revenue
EVER($12.2 Billion)
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199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013-8
-4
0
4
8 Supply Demand
.7%
Favorable Supply / Demand Fundamentals for 2013
-7.1%
-0.9%
- 4.7%
Total U.S. – Supply & Demand % Change12 MMA January 1990 – August 2013
7.7%
2.3%
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199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010 20112012-10
-5
0
5
Demand ADR
7.7%
2.3%
ADR Growth Stalls. Smooth Sailing From Here?
-4.5%
7.5%6.8%
-8.9%
4.0%
Total U.S. – ADR & Demand % Change12 MMA January 1990 – August 2013
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Positive RevPAR Growth For The Foreseeable Future
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010 201120122013-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-16.8%
-2.6%
-10.1%
9% 8.6%
Total U.S. – RevPAR % Change12 MMA January 1990 – August 2013
65 Months 36 Mo.112 Months
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Inflation Adjusted ADRs Still Not Reached – Yet
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F
2014F
Nominal ADR2000 / 2008 Grown by CPI
2000 ADR Grown By CPI
Total U.S. – ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2014F2000 – 2012 CPI from bls.gov, 2013– 2014 CPI from Blue Chip Economic Indicators
$85
$101
$104
$85
$107 $116
$107
$1192008 ADR Grown By CPI
$111
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State of Oregon
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High Growth, Surpassing Peak
Neighboring States: %Change & Actual OCCYTD August 2013
Idaho
Montana
Wyoming
Nevada
Oregon
Washington
California
3.1%
-0.5
-1.8%
3.1%
4.6%
2.7%
2.7%72.3%
62.3%
61.5%
58.8%
63.5%
66.9%
63.4%
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California At Least $20 Higher Than Neighbors
Neighboring States: %Change & Actual ADRYTD August 2013
Idaho
Montana
Wyoming
Nevada
Oregon
Washington
California
3.9%
3.6%
3.3%
1.9%
4.8%
4.9%
5.7%
$87.04
$93.18
$104.99
$96.88
$99.08
$109.66
$130.67
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Oregon Close To Double Digit RevPAR Growth
Neighboring States: %Change & Actual RevPARYTD August 2013
Idaho
Montana
Wyoming
Nevada
Oregon
Washington
California
7.1%
3.2%
1.4%
5%
9.6%
7.6%
8.6%$94.42
$73.35
$62.79
$61.54
$61.78
$57.27
$54.26
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Deeper Dive Into Oregon
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Portland Market
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Portland Market
Hotels 263Rooms 25,924Sample 89%
Supply 6.3m 0.0%Demand 4.5m* 3.9%Occupancy 72% 4.0%ADR $107* 6.7%RevPAR $77* 11.0%Room Revenue $482m* 10.9%
Portland Mkt: Key Performance IndicatorsAugust YTD 2013*All time high
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Supply Not An Issue, Strong Demand Growth Continues
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
6.4
-2.3
4.0
-4.4
6.3
-9.8
9.2
3.6 %
Supply % Change Demand % Change
Portland Mkt: Room Supply & Demand %Change12MMA 2001 to August 2013
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Year After Year of (almost) Continuous Growth
OCC % Change ADR % Change RevPAR % Change
6.9
-1.9
4.9 5.2 4.5
9.9
4.4 5.6
10.3
4.0
6.7
11.0
2010201120122013
Portland Mkt: ADR, OCC & RevPAR %ChangeAugust YTD 2010– 2013
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Weekday= Sunday-Thursday
Weekend= Friday & Saturday
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Weekday OCC: Chart Topping Rooms Sold
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec40
50
60
70
80
52.7
83%
2007 2010 2011 20122013
Portland Mkt: Actual Weekday OCC by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13
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Weekday ADR: Highest August Rate On Record
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec80
90
100
110
120
$96.07
$116.65
2007 2010 2011 20122013
+$15.80
Portland Mkt: Actual Weekday ADR by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13
+$6.87
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Weekend OCC: August Selling 9 Out Of 10 Rooms
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec40
50
60
70
80
90
100
52.8
93.6%
2007 2010 2011 20122013
Portland Mkt: Actual Weekend OCC by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13
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Weekend ADR: Strong Rate Growth
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec75
85
95
105
115
$87.29
$117.44 2007 2010 20112012 2013
Portland Mkt: Actual Weekend ADR by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13
+$18.88
+$6.81
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Portland Submarkets
Beaverton/Sunset Hwy West:Hotels: 35 Rooms: 2,975
Lake Oswego/ I-5 South:Hotels: 47 Rooms: 3,718
Portland Airport/ Vancouver:Hotels: 84 Rooms: 8,315
Portland Downtown:Hotels: 50 Rooms: 7,499
Portland I-84/ I-205 East:Hotels: 47 Rooms: 3,417
Portland Submarkets: August YTD 2013
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Downtown & Beaverton With Strong Performance
Beaverton/Sunset Hwy West
Lake Oswego/ I-5
Portland Airport/ Vancouver
Portland Downtown
Portland I-84/ I-205
10.1
6.4
5.7
7.3
3.7
1.8
5.7
3.9
3.6
5.3
OCC % Chg ADR % Chg
Portland Submarkets: OCC & ADR %ChangeYTD August 2013
62%$75
80%$145
70%$88
68%$96
78%$101
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9%+ RevPAR Growth Across the Board
Beaverton/Sunset Hwy West
Lake Oswego/ I-5
Portland Airport/ Vancouver
Portland Downtown
Portland I-84/ I-205
12.2
12.5
9.8
11.2
9.2
Portland Sub-Markets – RevPAR % ChangeYTD Ending August 2013
$45.94
$113.68
$61.06
$64.56
$77.54
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Oregon Area Market
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Oregon Area Market
Hotels 652Rooms 38,973Sample 55%
Supply 9.4m* 0.4%Demand 5.5m* 5.7%Occupancy 57.9% 5.3%ADR $92* 3.1%RevPAR $53* 8.5%Room Revenue $503m* 9.0%
OR Area Mkt: Key Performance IndicatorsAugust YTD 2013*All time high
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Strong KPI= Favorable Supply/Demand
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -10.0
-4.0
2.0
8.0
2.4
-0.7
2.2 -0.8
-7.1
5.3
0.5
4.5
Supply % Change Demand % Change
Oregon Area Mkt: Room Supply & Demand %Change12MMA 2001 to August 2013
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Positive OCC/ADR Mix Across The Board
OCC % Change ADR % Change RevPAR % Change
3.0
0.8
3.8
1.0 1.1
2.2
0.2
2.9 3.1
5.3
3.1
8.5
2010201120122013
Oregon Area Mkt: ADR, OCC & RevPAR &ChangeAugust YTD 2010– 2013
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Weekday= Sunday-Thursday
Weekend= Friday & Saturday
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Weekday OCC: Still Playing Catch Up From 2007
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec30
40
50
60
70
80
72.2% 2007201020112012
Oregon Area Mkt: Actual Weekday OCC by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13
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Weekday ADR: Breaking Records
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec60
70
80
90
100
110
$ 75.84
$ 102.28
2007 2010 2011 20122013
Oregon Area Mkt: Actual Weekday ADR by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13
$9.82
$9.33
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Weekend OCC: Finally Surpassing Peak
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec30
40
50
60
70
80
90 86.9%
2007 2010 2011 20122013
Oregon Area Mkt: Actual Weekend OCC by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13
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Weekend ADR: Breaking Records…Again
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec60
70
80
90
100
110
120
$77.24
$ 112.33
2007 2010 20112012 2013
Oregon Area Mkt: Actual Weekend ADR by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13
$9.94
$8.64
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Bend/Redmond: Hotels: 60 Rooms: 3,983
Oregon West Area:Hotels: 280 Rooms: 16,462
Eugene MSA:Hotels: 71 Rooms: 4,711
Medford/ Grants Pass:Hotels: 89 Rooms: 5,137
Oregon East Area:Hotels: 152 Rooms: 8,680
Oregon Area Submarkets
Oregon Area Submarkets: August YTD 2013
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3 of 5 Submarkets Surpassing Peak
Oregon East Area
Eugene MSA, OR
Oregon West Area
Medford/Grants Pass
Bend/ Redmond
1.6
1.1
2.8
4.1
7.7
6.4
6.3
2.8
6.8
10.3
OCC % Chg ADR % Chg
Oregon Area Submarkets: OCC & ADR %ChangeYTD Ending August 2013
63%
$104
61%
$81
57%
$98
63%
$87
53%$83
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Strong RevPAR Growth Across the Board
Oregon Area Sub-Markets – RevPAR % ChangeYTD Ending August 2013
Oregon East Area
Eugene MSA, OR
Oregon West Area
Medford/Grants Pass
Bend/ Redmond
8.1
7.5
5.7
11.2
18.8$66
$49
$56
$55
$44
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PipelineIn Construction: Ground has been broken
Final Planning: Construction will begin within 12 months
Planning: Construction will begin within 13-24 months
Pre-Planning: Construction will begin in more than 24 months
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Total U.S. – Rooms in Active Pipeline%Change From Last Year
Phase August 2013 August 2012 Difference % Change
In Construction 78,739 66,071 12,668 19.2%
Final Planning 124,591 106,281 18,310 17.2%
Planning 126,337 132,259 -5,922 -4.5%
Active Pipeline 329,667 304,611 25,056 8.2%
Rooms in the Active Pipeline Accelerating
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Under Construction Rooms Mostly In Middle Segments
Luxury Upper Upscale
Upscale Upper Midscale
Midscale Economy Unaffiliated
4,690.07,633.0
29,480.0
21,644.0
3,311.01,091.0
10,890.0
Total U.S. – Rooms Under Construction‘000s Rooms, by Scale, August 2013
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Portland Market Pipeline Snapshot
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Oregon Area Market Pipeline Snapshot
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Forecasts
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Total U.S. Forecasts (%Change vs. Prior Year)2013 - 2014
2013Forecast
2014Forecast
Supply 0.8% 1.1%
Demand 2.2% 2.4%
Occupancy 1.4% 1.3%
ADR 4.2% 4.6%
RevPAR 5.7% 6.0%
Total U.S.: ADR to Drive RevPAR for the Next 2 Years
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Portland Market-STRA Custom Forecast
2013Forecast
2014Forecast
%Chg. %Chg.
Occupancy 70% 4.1 70% 0.5%
ADR $107 7.0% $114 6.8%
RevPAR $75 11.4% $80 7.3%
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Oregon Area Market-STRA Custom Forecast
2013Forecast
2014Forecast
%Chg. %Chg.
Occupancy 56% 5.2% 57% 0.5%
ADR $91 3.0% $94 3.3%
RevPAR $50 8.4% $53 5.5%
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5 Things to Know
1. Total U.S.- Positive Demand, Rate Driven Recovery
2. Oregon- Strong Performance Across the Board
3. Portland- Setting KPI Highs
4. Oregon Area- Demand Recovering, Rate Driven
Recovery
5. Outlook- Steady As She Goes