households' risks from a danish financial stability perspective
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Households' Risks from a Danish Financial Stability Perspective. Tue Mathiasen Danmarks Nationalbank. Agenda. Aspects of the latest period of growth and recession Households’ debt and wealth financial non-financial Households’ debt service issues at the macro level at the micro level - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Households' Risks from a Danish Financial Stability Perspective
Tue MathiasenDanmarks Nationalbank
20-04-23 DANMARKS NATIONALBANK 2
Agenda Aspects of the latest period of growth
and recession Households’ debt and wealth
financial non-financial
Households’ debt service issues at the macro level at the micro level
Way forward
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Growth and recession- net borrowing / net lending
Net borrowing / net lending (Pct. of GDP - 4 qrt. avg.)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Non-financial corporations Financial corporations General government
Households and NPISH Rest of the world
Pct.
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Growth and recession- Changes in household balances
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Households’ debt and wealth - Real economy spill-over
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Pct.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Index
Net financial wealth (pct. of disp. income) Consumer confidence (right)
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Households’ debt and wealth - Real economy spill-over
Households' net borrowing / net lending, real investments and savings(Pct. of disp. income - 4 qrt. avg.)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Net borrowing / net lending Real investments Savings
Pct.
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Households’ debt and wealth- Financial wealth
Households' financial net wealth (Pct. of disp. income - 4 qrt. avg.)
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Financial net wealth Financial assets Liabilities
Pct.
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Households’ debt and wealth- Total wealth
Households' financial and total net wealth (Pct. of disp. income - 4 qrt. avg.)
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Financial net wealth Residential property, gross valueLiabilities Total assetsFinancial assets
Pct.
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Households’ debt and wealth- Property estimations Lack of official statistics High quality data sources
Register of all Danish property (buildings and land)
Continuous valuation of all Danish property
for tax purposes Property price statistics
By Statistics Denmark Property price index
By Association of Danish Mortgage Banks Quarterly data on average square metre prices
from open market transactions
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Households’ debt and wealth- Property estimations (cont.) Estimations within Danish NCB
Method Combination of stock (register data) by
owner sector and transaction prices (mortgage bank info.)
Stratification by groups of municipalities with similar degrees of urbanisation
Possibility of selection bias (actual traded property)
Not a full usage of all available high quality data sources
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Households’ debt and wealth- Across Nordic countries
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Households’ debt and wealth- Gross debt
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Households’ debt service issues- macro level
Debt service, housing loans
0
300
600
900
1.200
1.500
1.800
4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Housing loans, balance Interest payments (right)
Repayments (right) Debt service, housing loans (right)
Kr. billion Kr. billion
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Households’ debt service issues- composition of mortgage-credit
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Households’ debt service issues- composition by mortgaging ratio
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Households’ debt service issues- composition by income
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Households’ debt service issues-exposure to interest rate changes
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Way forward In general, a growing demand for
official statistics supporting financial stability analysis
Examples of specific issues Real property Micro-macro link