housing market indicators monthly update · housing market indicators monthly update march 2019...

Housing Market IndicatorsMonthly Update

March 2019

March 2019 Housing Market Indicators |

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

National housing market indicators available as of March show activity in housing markets improved overall. Trends in some of the top indicators for this month include:

• Purchases of new homes rose again in February to the fastest pace in nearly a year. New single-family home sales increased 4.9 percent to 667,000 units (SAAR), the highest level since March 2018. Sales were 0.6 percent higher than a year ago and were up in all regions except the West, where they remained the same. Note that monthly data on new home sales can be volatile and are often revised. (Sources: HUD and Census Bureau)

• Sales of previously owned (existing) homes rebounded, showing the largest percentage gain since December 2015. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) reported that February sales of existing homes (including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and cooperatives) surged 11.8 percent to 5.51 million (SAAR) but were still down 1.8 percent from a year earlier. Sales were up in all regions of the country except the Northwest, where they were unchanged.

• New home construction fell in February. Total housing starts were down 8.7 percent to 1.16 million units (SAAR) in February. Single-family housing starts dropped 17.0 percent to 805,000 homes (SAAR) after rebounding in January to their highest pace since mid-2007 (970,000 units); starts were down 10.6 percent from a year earlier. Multifamily housing starts (5 or more units in a structure), at 352,000 units (SAAR), rose 23.5 percent from January but were down 5.4 percent from a year earlier. Note that month-to-month changes in the construction of multifamily homes are often volatile. (Sources: HUD and Census Bureau)

• Year-over-year house price increases continued to moderate, with annual gains ranging from 4 to 6 percent. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted purchase-only house price index for January estimated that home values rose 0.6 percent over the previous month and 5.6 percent over the previous year, down slightly from a 5.7-percent annual gain in December. The FHFA index shows that U.S. home values are now 20.3 percent above their peak, set in March 2007 during the housing bubble, and stand 52.4 percent above the low point reached in May 2011. Another index tracked in the Monthly Update, the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) CoreLogic Case-Shiller® 20-City Home Price Index, posted a 0.2-percent decline in home values in January and year-over-year returns of 3.6 percent, down from a 4.1-percent annual gain recorded for December.

A leveling off or decline in month-over-month home values for an NSA index might be expected at this time of year, when sales slow after the primary homebuying season (spring and summer), and house prices typically flatten or decline. (The FHFA and CoreLogic Case-Shiller® price indices are released with a 2-month lag.)

• Inventory of homes on the market rose for existing homes. The listed inventory of new homes for sale at the end of February was down marginally (-0.6 percent) from the previous month but up 13.3 percent year-over-year to 340,000 available properties. The inventory would support 6.1 months of sales at the current sales pace, down from 6.5 months in January. Available existing homes for sale, at 1.63 million units in February, were 2.5 percent higher than the previous month and 3.2 percent greater than a year ago. The listed inventory represents a 3.5-month supply, down from 3.9 months in January. A shortage of homes for sale—especially at the lower end of the market—has been a constraint on purchases for several years.

• Gains in homeowners’ equity continued at a moderate pace. Homeowners’ equity (total property value less mortgage debt outstanding) was up $231 billion (1.5 percent) in the fourth quarter from a gain of $151 billion the previous quarter, for a total of more than $15.5 trillion. The gain for all of 2018 was $1.0 trillion, an increase of 7.1 percent. Owners’ equity reached a peak of $13.4 trillion during the housing bubble. Home-price growth, the primary driver of gains in equity, has started to moderate. (Source: Federal Reserve)

• For all of 2018, the number of underwater borrowers declined. As of the fourth quarter of 2018, CoreLogic estimated that the number of underwater borrowers increased by 35,000 homeowners to 2.2 million, or 4.2 percent of residential properties with a mortgage. CoreLogic’s estimates are based on an NSA price index, however, and home values typically are flat or decline in the fourth quarter of the year, when home sales are relatively slow. One year ago, 2.6 million homeowners (4.9 percent) were reported in negative equity. The number of homeowners in negative equity fell by 351,000 for all of 2018. (Source: CoreLogic)

• The one-week drop in mortgage rates at the end of March was the largest in a decade. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) reached an average weekly low in March of 4.06 percent the week ending March 28, down from 4.28 percent the week ending March 21. February’s weekly low was 4.35 percent. One year ago, the 30-year FRM was 4.44 percent. (Source: Freddie Mac)


Housing Market Indicators Monthly Update | March 2019


Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Sources: Census Bureau and HUD.

New Construction Fell for Single-FamilyHousing after Rebounding in January

National Housing Starts (Thousands)

Sources: Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors®, and HUD.

The Months' Supply of Existing Homes for Sale Is Below the Historic Norm

National Months’ Supply of New and Existing Homes (Months)

Seasonally Adjusted Annual RateSources: National Association of Realtors®, Census Bureau, and HUD.See Note 2, Sources and Methodology.

New and Existing Home Sales Rose in FebruaryMonthly Sales (Thousands)

Sources: Standard & Poor’s, Federal Housing Finance Agency, CoreLogic, and HUD.See Note 1, Sources and Methodology.

House Prices Continued to Rise in JanuaryMonthly House Price Trends by Index ($ Thousands)

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New Home Sales (right axis)

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(Includes investor, second home, and jumbo properties)

Foreclosure starts are default notices or scheduled foreclosure auctions, depending on the state.Source: ATTOM Data Solutions.See Note 4, Sources and Methodology.

Monthly Foreclosure Actions (Thousands)Foreclosure Filings Have Trended Downward

Sources: National Association of Realtors® and Census Bureau.

Existing Homes Available for Sale (End of Period) and Total Vacant Housing Units (Year Round) Off Market (Millions)

Supply of Existing Homes Fell in the Fourth Quarter, Number of Units Held off the Market Remains High

Sources: Census Bureau ACS and 2000 Decennial Census, BLS, CPS, HUD, and National Association of Realtors®.See Note 3, Sources and Methodology.

Rental and Homeownership Index Values

Rental Affordability Remains a ChallengeDue to Rising Rents

The historic norm of 128 is the median value of NAR's composite housing affordability index since 1989.Sources: Freddie Mac and National Association of Realtors®.

Percentage Rates and Index Values

Homeownership Affordability Remains Above Historic Norm; Mortgage Rates Have Fallen Since November 2018

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Affordability IndexNAR Housing

Affordability IndexHistoric Norm

Foreclosure Completions

StartsForeclosure




Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Owners’ Equity in Household Real Estate at End of Period ($ Trillions)

Home Equity Has Surpassed Its Peak Set in 2006 Since the Beginning of 2017

Sources: MBA and HUD.See Note 5, Sources and Methodology.

Purchase Refinance Combined

FHA as Share of Quarterly Mortgage Originations by Type (Percent)

FHA Mortgage Lending

The historic norm of 65 percent is the average national homeownership rate since 1965.Sources: Census Bureau and HUD.

National Homeownership Rate (Percent)

National Homeownership Reached Highest Rate in Nearly Five Years

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Historic National Norm

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HOUSING MARKET FACT SHEETIndicator This Period Last Period Year Ago Latest Release

Mortgage Rates (30-Yr FRM, percent) 4.06 4.28 4.44 28-Mar-19Homeownership Affordability (index) 155.8 147.4 (r) 164.3 January-19Rental Affordability (index) 111.9 104.8 (r) 112.7 4th Q 18Home Prices (indices)

CoreLogic Case-Shiller (NSA) 212.4 212.9 (r) 205.1 January-19FHFA (SA) 272.0 270.4 (r) 257.6 January-19CoreLogic - Excluding Distressed Sales (NSA) 202.0 (s) 201.8 (s,r) 194.1 (s) January-19

Home SalesNew (thousands, SAAR) 667 636 (r) 663 February-19Existing (thousands, SAAR) 5,510 4,930 (r) 5,610 February-19First-Time Buyers (thousands, SAAR) 2,038 (s) 1,837 (s,r) 2,070 (s) February-19Distressed Sales (percent, NSA) 5 4 6 January-19

Housing SupplyNew Homes for Sale (thousands, SA) 340 342 (r) 300 February-19New Homes for Sale - Months’ Supply (months, SA) 6.1 6.5 (r) 5.4 February-19Existing Homes for Sale (thousands, NSA) 1,630 1,590 1,580 February-19Existing Homes - Months’ Supply (months) 3.5 3.9 3.4 February-19Vacant Units Held Off Market (thousands) 3,878 3,963 4,030 4th Q 18

Housing StartsTotal (thousands, SAAR) 1,162 1,273 1,290 February-19Single-Family (thousands, SAAR) 805 970 900 February-19Multifamily (thousands, SAAR) 352 285 372 February-19

Mortgage Originations (thousands) Purchase Originations 1,111.2 (r) 1,321.2 (r) 1,031.2 4th Q 18Refinance Originations 433.1 (r) 476.0 (r) 635.1 4th Q 18

FHA Mortgage Originations (thousands)Refinance Originations 14.7 (p) 14.1 19.9 February-19Purchase Originations 43.2 (p) 41.2 45.3 February-19Purchases by First-Time Buyers 35.6 (p) 32.7 37.1 February-19

Mortgage Delinquency Rates (percent)Prime 1.9 (s) 1.8 (s) 2.3 February-19Subprime 23.6 (s) 23.2 (s) 23.9 February-19FHA 8.8 9.0 9.6 February-19

Seriously Delinquent Mortgages (thousands)Prime 187 (s) 188 (s) 301 February-19Subprime 153 (s) 158 (r,s) 203 February-19FHA 333 338 405 February-19

Change in Aggregate Home Equity ($ billions) 230.7 151.2 (r) 397.3 4th Q 18Underwater Borrowers (thousands) 2,203 2,169 (r) 2,554 4th Q 18National Homeownership Rate (percent) 64.8 64.4 64.2 4th Q 18Foreclosure Actions (thousands)

Foreclosure Starts 29.7 29.4 13.4 February-19Foreclosure Completions 11.4 12.2 12.9 February-19Short Sales 2.5 (p) 2.9 (r) 3.3 January-19REO Sales 11.4 (p) 13.0 (r) 17.4 January-19

SA = seasonally adjusted, NSA = not SA, p = preliminary, r = revised, b = brackets include units in process, s = see Additional Notes in Sources and Methodology.




SOURCES AND METHODOLOGYA. Items in TableDescription Frequency Sources Notes on MethodologyMortgage Rates (30-Yr FRM) Weekly Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, as reported for 30-Year fixed rate mortgages (FRM).Homeownership Affordability Monthly National Association of Realtors® NAR's composite housing affordability index as reported. A value of 100 means that a family with the

median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signifies that a family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify.

Rental Affordability Quarterly HUD HUD's Rental Affordability Index measures whether a typical renter household has enough income to qualify for a lease on a typical rental home at the national level based on the most recent price and income data. A typical renter household is one that earns median income and a typical rental home is a median-priced rental unit. It is assumed that a renter household can qualify for a lease if the annual rent is not greater than 30 percent of the renter household's annual income. A value of 100 means that a renter household with median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a lease on a median-priced rental home. An index value above 100 signifies that a household earning the median income of renter households has more than enough income to qualify. For more information on HUD's rental affordability index and methodology, see the Second Quarter 2016 issue of HUD's National Housing Market Summary on their U.S. Housing Market Conditions website: https://www.huduser.gov/portal/ushmc/home.html.

Home Prices

CoreLogic Case-Shiller (NSA)

FHFA (SA)

CoreLogic - Excluding Distressed Sales (NSA)

Monthly

Monthly

Monthly

Standard and Poor’s

Federal Housing Finance Agency

CoreLogic

Case-Shiller 20-metro composite index, January 2000 = 100. Standard and Poor’s recommends use of non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) index when making monthly comparisons.

FHFA monthly (purchase-only) index for US, January 1991 = 100.

CoreLogic national combined index, distressed sales excluded, January 2000 = 100. (Only available as NSA). Also see additional note in Section C below on the CoreLogic HPI.

Home Sales (SAAR)

New

Existing

First-Time Buyers

Distressed Sales (NSA)

Monthly

Monthly

Monthly

Monthly

HUD and Census Bureau

National Association of Realtors®

NAR, Census Bureau, and HUD

CoreLogic

Seasonally adjusted annual rates. A newly constructed house is considered sold when either a sales contract has been signed or a deposit accepted, even if this occurs before construction has actually started.

Seasonally adjusted annual rates. Existing-home sales—which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops—are based on transaction closings. This differs from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit.

Sum of seasonally adjusted new and existing home sales (above) multiplied by National Association of Realtors® annual estimate of first-time buyer share of existing home sales.

Short sales and REO (Real Estate Owned) sales as a percent of total existing home sales (current month subject to revision).

Housing Starts

Total (SAAR)

Single-Family (SAAR)

Multifamily (SAAR)

Monthly

Monthly

Monthly




Housing starts are divided into three components: single family, multifamily, and two-to-four unit structures. Start of construction occurs when excavation begins for the footings or foundation of a building. As of September 1992, housing starts include units being totally rebuilt on an existing foundation.

Single-family housing includes fully detached, semi-detached (semi-attached, side-by-side), townhouses and row houses. For attached units, each must be separated from the adjacent unit by a ground-to-roof firewall to be classified as a single-family structure. Also, these units must not share common facilities (i.e., heating/air-conditioning systems, plumbing, attic, or basement). Units built one on top of another and those built side-by-side that do not have a ground-to-roof firewall or have common facilities are not considered single-family units.

Multifamily housing has five or more units in a structure.

Housing Supply

New Homes for Sale (SA)

New Homes for Sale - Months’ Supply (SA)

Existing Homes for Sale (NSA)

Existing Homes - Months’ Supply

Vacant Units Held Off Market

Monthly

Monthly

Monthly

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Census Bureau

As reported.

As reported.

As reported.

As reported.

As reported in Census CPS/HPS Table 4. Estimates of Housing Inventory, line item “Year-round vacant, held off market for reasons other than occasional use or usually reside elsewhere.” Vacant units can be held off the market for a variety of reasons.

Mortgage Originations

Refinance Originations

Purchase Originations

Quarterly

Quarterly

Mortgage Bankers Association and HUD

Mortgage Bankers Association and HUD

HUD estimate of refinance originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of refinance originations.

HUD estimate of home purchase originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of home purchase originations.

https://www.huduser.gov/portal/ushmc/home.html

https://www.huduser.gov/portal/ushmc/home.html




SOURCES AND METHODOLOGYA. Items in Table (continued)FHA Originations

Refinance Originations

Purchase Originations

Purchases by First-Time Buyers

Monthly

Monthly

Monthly

HUD

HUD

HUD

FHA originations reported as of date of loan closing. Estimate for current month scaled upward due to normal reporting lag and shown as preliminary.

Mortgage Delinquency Rates (NSA)

Prime

Subprime

FHA

Monthly

Monthly

Monthly

Black Knight Financial Services

Black Knight Financial Services

HUD

Total conventional mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by conventional mortgages actively serviced.

Total conventional mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by conventional mortgages actively serviced.

Total FHA mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by FHA’s insurance in force.

Seriously Delinquent Mortgages

Prime

Subprime

FHA

Monthly

Monthly

Monthly

LPS Applied Analytics, MBA, and HUD

LPS Applied Analytics, MBA, and HUD

HUD

Conventional mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure, scaled up to market.

Conventional mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure, scaled up to market.

Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure.

Change in Aggregate Home Equity

Quarterly Federal Reserve Board Difference in aggregate household owners' equity in real estate as reported in the Federal Reserve Board's Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States for stated time period.

Underwater Borrowers Quarterly CoreLogic As reported.

National Homeownership Rate Quarterly Census Bureau Homeownership in the U.S. as a percentage of all households.

Foreclosure Actions

Foreclosure Starts

Foreclosure Completions

Short sales

REO Sales

Monthly

Monthly

Monthly

Monthly

ATTOM Data Solutions (Formerly RealtyTrac)

ATTOM Data Solutions

CoreLogic

CoreLogic

Foreclosure starts are reported counts of notice of default or scheduled foreclosure auction, depending on which action starts the foreclosure process in a state.

Real Estate Owned (REO).

Count of Short Sales for the month as reported (current month subject to revision).

Count of REO (Real Estate Owned) Sales for the month as reported (current month subject to revision).

B. Notes on Charts

1. Monthly house price trends shown as changes in respective house price indices applied to a common base price, set equal to the median price of an existing home sold in January 2003, as reported by the National Association of Realtors. Indices shown: S&P/CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-metro composite index (NSA), January 2000 = 100, FHFA monthly (purchase-only) index for US (SA), January 1991 = 100, and CoreLogic-Distressed Sales Excluded (Monthly) for US (NSA), January 2000 =100. Also see additional note below in Section C on the CoreLogic HPI.

2. Reported seasonally adjusted annual rates for new and existing home sales.

3. A comparison of the affordability of renting a home to purchasing a home, added as of the September 2016 release. HUD’s Quarterly Rental Affordability Index is compared with NAR’s Composite Quarterly Affordability Index. See note above on Rental Affordability.

4. Filings of a notice of default or scheduled foreclosure auction, depending on which action starts the foreclosure process in a state, are reported for foreclosure starts. Foreclosure completions are properties entering REO. Both as reported by ATTOM Data Solutions (formerly RealtyTrac).

5. FHA market shares are FHA purchase and refinance originations divided by HUD estimates of purchase and refinance mortgage originations, as noted in “Mortgage Originations” above. See additional note below on FHA market share.

C. Additional Notes

Black Knight enhanced their database as of December 2017 data, increasing their database coverage by nearly 1 million additional loans through several new contributors and improved coverage of certain types of data. In addition, HUD added filters to make sure all FHA and VA loans were excluded from the data to ensure reporting of only conventional loans. The November 2017 changes in reported data are mainly due to the additional filters.

FHA Market Share data were updated in the June 2017 report based on the most recent HMDA data and revised house price estimates. FHA market share estimates were based on new methodology beginning with the October 2013 report; estimates were revised back through Q1 2011. See the FHA Market Share report on their website for an explanation of the new methodology: http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/program_offices/housing/rmra/oe/rpts/fhamktsh/fhamktqtrly.

The estimate for first-time buyers was revised downward from 35 percent for 2016 to 34 percent for 2017 with the October 2017 release of the NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers 2017 report. The annual reporting of first-time buyers differs from NAR’s monthly Realtors Confidence Index survey because the annual survey, for the most part, represents purchases of homes by owner-occupants and does not include purchases by investors, as in the monthly survey.

Corelogic’s House Price Index (HPI) estimates are based on new methodology beginning with their June 2016 report, which includes data through April 2016. A variety of modeling and other enhancements to their HPI and its forecast, including a 14-percent expansion in the number of transaction pairs, were made.

http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/program_offices/housing/rmra/oe/rpts/fhamktsh/fhamktqtrly

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