houston, texas - fort bend county · 2020-03-26 · the image cannot be displayed. your computer...

www.realestateconsulting.com

The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still

The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.


Fort Bend County EDC Economic Overview

Houston, Texas

July 2016

6575 West Loop South, Suite 500 | Bellaire, TX 77401 | (713) 906-3829



SeeTerms&Condi-onsofUseandDisclaimers.Distribu,ontoNon-ClientsisProhibited©2016 2

We Work for Executives Who Want to Make Informed Housing Industry Investment Decisions




Regional Conclusions: 18 Offices, Monthly Analysis on 65 MSAs, 600+ Consulting studies per year; 220+ Builders surveyed monthly; Consumer Insights survey; Designlens.com.




Economic Overview

4




Employment Growth Forecast




Peak Employment Comparison




Job Growth By Industry




Economic and Housing Market Trends – Income Growth




Housing Market Overview

9




Annual Existing Home Sales




Annual Median Existing Home Price




Months of Supply Estimate




Total Permits – Houston MSA

Permit History & Projections 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Current 2016P 2017P 2018P 2019PSingle-Family Permits 22,363 22,150 22,692 28,542 34,560 38,319 36,786 35,922 31,700 27,300 27,600 29,100

1-Year Growth Rate -21% -1% 2% 26% 21% 11% -4% -6% -14% -14% 1% 5%Multifamily Permits 4,957 5,157 8,382 14,614 16,789 25,426 20,115 16,882 12,000 8,000 4,000 4,000

1-Year Growth Rate -66% 4% 63% 74% 15% 51% -21% -29% -40% -33% -50% 0%Total Permits 27,320 27,307 31,074 43,156 51,349 63,745 56,901 52,804 43,700 35,300 31,600 33,100

1-Year Growth Rate -36% 0% 14% 39% 19% 24% -11% -15% -23% -19% -10% 5%




New Home Sales and Median Home Price




Median Home Price: New vs. Existing

Home Price Compare 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CurrentMedian New Home Price $181,300 $187,600 $197,600 $208,300 $233,600 $257,300 $276,900 $277,500

1-Year Growth Rate -5% 3% 5% 5% 12% 10% 8% -1%Median Existing Home Price $152,042 $152,834 $153,702 $163,562 $180,517 $197,114 $212,368 $224,000

1-Year Growth Rate 0% 1% 1% 6% 10% 9% 8% 1%Home Price Spread - New over Resale $29,258 $34,766 $43,898 $44,738 $53,083 $60,186 $64,532 $53,500

Spread to New Price 19% 23% 29% 27% 29% 31% 30% 24%




Cost of Home Ownership vs. Renting

(1) Entry-level 5% down with PMI buyer assumes the purchase of a home at 80% of the market’s median-priced resale home with a 5% down payment and a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage. Payment includes PITI plus mortgage insurance.




Rental Rates vs. Occupancy




Houston Economy

18




Texas Oil Production




This map shows job exposure to mining / oil / gas in large housing markets compared to the US average of 1.0. For example, Houston’s energy sector job exposure is 6.6 times the US average.

Energy-Dependent Markets

Source: Brookings, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (July 2015)

1.7x

6.6x

Bakersfield

Dallas

Houston

1.7x

Denver

1.5x

San Antonio

6.2x

2.4x

New Orleans

1.9x

Pittsburgh

5.5x

Oklahoma City

2.9x

Tulsa




Houston’s Energy Exposure

Source: Greater Houston Partnership, University of Houston Institute for Regional Forecasting

Energy Sector Multiplier

•  Every 1 job created/lost in energy sector results in another 3-4 jobs created/lost in non-energy sector, i.e.

•  Restaurants •  Grocery Stores •  Hospitals •  Real Estate

Development




Energy Company Capital Expenditures

$181

$163

$131

$106

$80 $80

$0$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140$160$180$200

2013 2014 2015 2016p 2017p 2018p

Capital Expenditures by Year(Billions)

Chevron Exxon ConocoPhillips BP Shell

Source: Corporate Earnings Reports/Guidance

And energy companies have announced plan to cut capital spending 56% from the peak and 39% from 2015.




Submarket Risk Analysis

23


The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still Submarket Comparison: Market Risk Tier Characteristics

24

LowerRisk:LowerenergysectorexposureStrongernewhomemarketStrongerexis,nghome

marketLowersupplyoflots

BeIerlotvalueoutlook

HigherRisk:Higherenergysector

exposureWeakernewhome

marketWeakerexis,nghomemarket

HighersupplyoflotsWorsesinglefamily

lotoutlook

Mid-LevelRisk:

AveragemarketperformanceMixofhighs&

lows

Tiersareshownwithsomeoverlapasdifferentsubmarketscouldsharesomesimilarmarketcharacteris,cs.

Generallyspeaking,submarketsineachriskcategoryaresimilarinatleastsomekeycharacteris,cs.




Existing Home Sales by Volume




Existing Home Sales Growth by County




Existing Home Price by County




Existing Home Price Growth by County




New Home Sales by County




New Home Sales Growth by County




New Home Median Price by County




Months of Supply by County





Contact Us

33

IRVINE 9140 Irvine Center Drive

Suite 200 Irvine, CA, 92618

(949) 870-1200

SAN DIEGO 4250 Executive Square

Suite 540 La Jolla, CA, 92037

(858) 281-7200

SACRAMENTO 7840 Madison Avenue

Suite 187 Fair Oaks, CA, 95628

(916) 647-3263

TEXAS 6575 W. Loop South

Suite 500 Bellaire, TX, 77401

(713) 906-3829

FLORIDA 1900 Glades Road

Suite 205 Boca Raton, FL, 33431

(561) 998-5814

ATLANTA 12600 Deerfield Parkway

Suite 100 Atlanta, GA, 30004

(770) 286-3493

WASHINGTON D.C. 11710 Plaza America Dr.

Suite 2000 Reston, VA, 20190

(703)447-7171

CHICAGO 3108 State Route 59

Suite 124-247 Naperville, IL, 60555

(630) 544-7826

NEW ENGLAND 155 Fleet Street

Suite 11 Portsmouth, NH, 03801

(603) 235-5760

houston, texas - fort bend county · 2020-03-26 · the image cannot be displayed. your computer...

Documents