how are arms data collected? an overview rich allen deputy administrator national agricultural...
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How are ARMS Data Collected?
an Overview
Rich AllenDeputy AdministratorNational Agricultural Statistics Service
Goals
• Clarify survey content• Describe data interrelationships• Outline sampling approach• Mention publicity approaches• Highlight data collection concerns• Touch on analysis/summary
FarmProductionExpendituresSurvey1972 - 1984
Cost of
Production
Surveys1973 - 1984
FarmCosts andReturnsSurvey1985 - 1995
CroppingPracticesSurvey1990 - 1995
AgriculturalResourceManagementSurvey1996 – 2???
Multiple phases are used for survey
efficiency, timeliness, and data linkages
ARMS Phase I
• Conducted between May and July to screen farms for the later phases
• Ensures operations are still in business
• Defines the sampling frame for later phases
• Shortens initial contact (average 5-10 minutes)
• Collects general farm data such as crops grown, livestock inventory, and value of sales
ARMS Phase II
• Conducted from September through December when information should be fresh
• Collects data on chemical usage, production practices, resource use, and variable costs of production for specific commodities
• Shortens interview by focusing on specific commodities (3-year average – 60 Minutes)
ARMS Phase III
• Conducted from February through April when records should be complete
• Collects information on whole farm finance, operator, and household characteristics
• Uses multiple questionnaire versions• Requires a considerable amount of
time (3-year average – 94 minutes)
Cost of Production Matrix 1
Year Commodities
2000 Dairy, Rice, Sugar beets
2001 Corn
2002 Soybeans
2003 Barley, Upland Cotton, Sorghum
2004 Peanuts, Durum Wheat, Other Spring Wheat, Winter Wheat, Hogs
Cost of Production Matrix 2
Year Commodities
2005 Corn, Dairy, Oats
2006 Soybeans, Poultry
2007 Upland Cotton, Rice
2003 ARMS II Sample Sizes
Commodity Samples
Barley 2,133
Sorghum 1,433
Cotton 2,559
Positive responses from Phase II move to Phase III.
2003 ARMS III Typical Versions
Version Samples
Cost & Returns Report 12,375
Barley PPCR 2,133
Sorghum PPCR 1,433
Cotton PPCR 2,559
Subtotal 18,500
(Core – 15 states – 16,850)
Chem Use Matrix 1
Year Commodities
2000 Corn, Upland Cotton, Soybeans, Durum Wheat, Other Spring Wheat, Winter Wheat
2001 Upland Cotton, Soybeans, Fall Potatoes
2002 Corn, Durum Wheat Wheat, Other Spring Wheat, Winter Wheat
Chem Use Matrix 2Year Commodities
2003 Corn, Fall Potatoes
2004 Soybeans
2005 Upland Cotton, Fall Potatoes
2006 Durum Wheat, Other Spring Wheat, Winter
Wheat
2007 Corn, Fall Potatoes
2003 ARMS III Expansion
• New funding provides for increased sample sizes for state level data
• A shorter “core” questionnaire has been designed
• Two survey modes will be used for initial contacts– Personal– Mail
Sample Selection Objectives
• Represent all operations• Create detailed data sets• Minimize respondent
burden
Perry – Burt Sampling
• Sample selection weights adjusted for previously selected operations
• Approach virtually eliminates chance of selection in consecutive years
Stratification
• Main variable is economic size class
• Sampling rates adjusted for operations selected for commodity specific contacts
Data Expansions
• Basic weights based on inverse of selection factors
• Weights adjusted within strata for missing data
Data Edits and Analysis
• Records edited for internal consistency
• Individual expansions examined for outliers
• National and Regional summaries are reviewed
Routine ARMS III Uses
• Income and expense estimates to BEA - - late June
• Farm Production Expenditures Report (NASS) - - mid-July
• National Income Estimates (ERS website) - - September
• Ag Income and Finance S & O (ERS website) - - November
ARMS Data Collection Concerns
• Survey seems long• Some questions are not farm
related• Some question seem quite
personal• Respondents often don’t
understand “What’s in it for me?”• Some questions ask for things that
can’t be easily answered
Past Data Collection Approaches• Strengthen enumerator training• Minimize overlap with other
surveys• Send out pre-survey letters• Set up interview appointments• Send back personalized
summary information
Survey Promotion Approaches
• NASS awareness postcards• Pre-survey “theme” letters• Data user testimonies• Promotional brochures
Data Collection Help Needed
• How to stress “What’s in it for you?”
• How to describe state and local data uses