how behavioural psychology can explain brexit' - sxsw 2017 presentation - michael bodansky
TRANSCRIPT
Behavioural Psychology and BrexitSXSW 2017Michael Bodansky - @mbodansky
freuds: A legacy of psychology?
• Post-Trump
• Rise of populism: Marine Le Pen, Geert Wilders, Pegida
• About to trigger Article 50 and commence negotiations
March: More relevant now than ever
System 1 vs System 2
7 PrinciplesHindsight bias
Game theoryLoss aversion
Status quo biasFairness
Anchoring
• Beware of hindsight bias
• It will be remembered as a knife-edge vote
• Leave campaign was severely disadvantaged
Was it a close call?
6
• System 1 vs System 2
• Can psychology explain decision making?
• Can this explain politics?
Is politics system 1 or system 2?
We hate losing
• “We’ve had enough of experts”
• Translation: “We’ve had enough of system 2”
• Ultimatum game
• Spite towards elites
• Prisoner exchange
Game theory
• “Bigoted woman”
• Backlash against elites
• Don’t ridicule the swing voters
Politicians vs the people?
• Report author: Leave brands are “traditional, straightforward, simple, down-to-earth, good value, friendly”
• “Remain brands are progressive, up-to-date, innovative, socially responsible, intelligent”
• Leave brands mostly products
• Remain brands are mostly services
Is there a ‘metropolitan elite’?
Divided in attitude?
• Marginal issues define us
• Why are there few protests against Syria?
• We focus on the minority at the expense of the majority
Political correctness gone mad?
• Oxfam report: good or bad?
• Does fairness matter?
• How much unfairness can we tolerate?
Fairness is an evolved instinct
Do we prefer a status quo?
• Anchoring sets the parameters of the debate
• Important in negotiations
• Hijacks the conversation
The importance of anchoring
• Blackmail and ultimatums are unwise
• EU to punish UK as deterrent?
• Fear of loss vs potential gains
Where do we go from here?