how can india generate power for all?
DESCRIPTION
AskHow's analysis of the Indian Power sector's performance, and the reasons for bad performance.TRANSCRIPT
HOW can we have affordable, 24 hrs Power for All ?
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The Analysis
Power for All The AnalysisWhere we are?
With more than 290 million people without access to electricity,!India has the largest unelectrified population in the world.!!
Source: International Energy Agency, 2012 paper on World Energy Outlook
Power for All The Analysis
The Rural household electrification numbers:!!
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If we can progress at this growth rate we will reach 100% only in 2023!!HOW can we connect our villages faster?
Where do we want to be?
43%!2001 Census
66%!2010 NSSO
Power for All The Analysis
1 REACH!While cities and towns connect to the grid,!large parts of the hinterland still do not!!
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The 3 Steps required
Power for All The Analysis
THOSE NOT REACHED!are opting to pay Rs 150 - Rs 200 per month to!entrepreneurial ‘Off Grid’(like solar) providers …!!
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… this is between Rs 8 to 12/unit because they!value the ability to work or study in the evening!
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! … and because kerosene and diesel!! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! cost almost twice as much!!
How long can rural India wait for Power?!!
Examining REACH
Source: 2 October, 2013 Economic Times article by Biswarup Gooptu
Power for All The Analysis
2 SUPPLY!While some cities have 24 hours of power, !12 - 18 hours per day is normal !for most parts of India!!
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The 3 Steps required
Power for All The AnalysisExamining SUPPLY
WHY UNDERSUPPLY?!Insufficient Capacity Addition!
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Capacity doubled from 100 to 200 GW, between 2002 to 2012, but there is still 10% to 20% deficit even in major states. International norm: 30% surplus!!
How can we add Power Plants? !
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Source: Ministry of Power and CEA
Power for All The AnalysisExamining SUPPLY
WHY UNDERSUPPLY?!Generation Capacity Usage at 60-70%!
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Because of Fuel shortage - even though India has 3rd largest coal reserves - India is expected be largest coal importer which will increase cost.!
How can we supply more Coal to Power Plants?
Power for All The Analysis
What about the promise of Alternative Power sources?!!
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… is the current and expected reality.!!
Lignite Gas/ Diesel Hydro Nuclear Others Coal3 13 13 2 5 64
3 12 10 3 5 66
3 9 10 2 6 69
Examining SUPPLY
2010
2012
2017 projected
Source: Analysis based on CEA data
Power for All The Analysis
3 EFFICIENCY!Since Power is a Natural Monopoly, there is little motivation to be efficient, then!
How can we ensure efficiency in a Monopoly environment? !!
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Let us examine all the 3 major components of Power
The 3 Steps required
Raw material!Coal
Generation!Cost
Transmission!Cost & Losses
Power for All The Analysis
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Monopoly Supplier: Coal India, but its costs are half of imported coal - and with imports, costs will rise.!
Examining EFFICIENCY
Monopoly squeeze!
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Monopoly Transporter, Indian Railways already subsidises coal transport - can it continue to do so as volumes increase?
Raw Material Coal
How can we get required volume of coal to plants cheaper?
Power for All The Analysis
Inefficient Old Plants!
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Over 25% capacity in major states comes from plants over 30 years old (international end-of-life norm). These plants require high maintenance and more fuel, to produce lesser power.!
How can we ensure lower costs as old plants are phased out and new capacity is added?
Generation Cost
Examining EFFICIENCY
Power for All The Analysis
Transmission Cost and Losses
Examining EFFICIENCY
Decrease Engineering Losses!
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Basic physics suggests that as Power for All is rolled out, rural connectivity will mean increase in engineering losses
Decrease Theft!
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Loss reduction possible with stricter monitoring of compliance and punitive measures against offenders.
How can we reduce engineering losses and eliminate power theft?
Power for All The Analysis
TARIFF
Examining Tariffs
Will Industry absorb?!
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Agricultural power almost free, Domestic tariff below cost for most, only Industry pays 30% above cost!
If Industry pays more, then cost of goods will rise OR!
Industry will move to use of diesel gensets, which makes the distribution companies poorer.
Power for All The Analysis
Unpaid subsidies!
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Subsidy: 20,000 cr paid: 15,000 cr unpaid!
When charges to consumers are cut, government has to pay subsidy to Power companies. And when subsidies are unpaid, Power company cannot invest in wires, towers and meters.
TARIFF
Examining Tariffs
Power for All The Analysis
All 3 major cost components go up !as we implement Power for All, so …!!
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How can Tariffs for !Consumers be kept low?!
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Understanding Tariffs
Raw material!Coal
Generation!Cost
Transmission!Cost & Losses
IN CONCLUSION!
Please Ask your Lok Sabha candidate
HOW can we provide !Power to the villages of !India at a faster pace?
HOW can we reduce engineering losses and !
eliminate theft?
HOW can we reduce!tariffs without lowering!
investments in education!and health care?
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HOW can we supply!more coal cheaply to !
Power plants?