How does academic selectivity impact student dropout?: Evidence from an elite Russian university

Elena V. Kolotova, Maria DobryakovaNational Research University – Higher School of Economics,

Russian Federation, Moscow, Joshua Hawley,

The Ohio State University, USA

Study Rationale• Dropout varies across nations from HE.

– USA (highest) at about 54%– Denmark (16%)– Korea (15%)– Russia (21%)

• Elite universities– Many US studies show that the higher the quality of the university, the lower

the dropout rate (Harvard’s 4-year graduation rate is 90%).– But, average 4 year graduation rate for public highly selective colleges is only

60% – Dropout rate in Russia varies from 21% to 50% (HSE, MSU, 21/22%); Regional

univ. (40%)

Source: OECD; IPEDS, ACT

Theoretical framework• Studies of student dropout tend to take a model of

persistence initially developed by Tinto. Persistence as a function of learner behavior, taking into account both academic and social integration

• Alternatives offered by (among others) Metz , Astin, Bean, and Pascarella & Terenzini.

• Would add that these theories focus on traditional age students in the US

Do the traditional theories that are developed for US apply to countries such as Russia? There are many differences in higher education across borders

Russian Higher Education

• Russia has one of the largest higher education systems (about 1.9 million graduates in 2007), compared to 2.7 million from the US

• Among the highest enrollment rates globally (about 540 per 10,000). The US has by comparison 467 per 10,000; Korea has 427.

• Growth has increased in part because of high #’s in online learning, leading to quality issues. But HSE is not that.

Higher School of Economics

• Established in 1992, main location is in Moscow.

• Offers four year undergraduate, Masters, and specialist degrees in a wide range of fields.

• Current enrollments are somewhere around 5,500 in 2010 (3,500+ in undergraduate), although this takes into account non Moscow locations

About the dataAdministrative data of HSE: student admission and student studying*:Gender; age; place of residence; type of schoolCertificate of academic success in school: gold

medal; Olympiad-winner; Unified state resultsAdmission process: type of financing; passing grade

of contest on government-financed place; faculty of enrollment, year of enrollment; way of entrance

*Histories of 2007, 2008, 2009 cohorts of students (bachelor or specialist degree) are traced till November 2010

Russian admissions

• How do undergraduates enter university?– 97% enter via some sort of competitive process• 67% from grades on National Exam• 30% as Olympiad winner

– 2-3% enter because they represent a “target group”

• Of the 97% that enter competitive process, over half (55%) are awarded govt. financed places

State-provided and private Students• State-provided students (budget) don’t fund their

studying (have grants from government). But they have higher passing score for entering the university (except group of privileged students and target group of students)

• Private (regular) students have lower passing score, but they have to fund their studying.

• In HSE, students who miss only 1-2 points to have a passing score can have a discount on their studying (from 30% to 70%).

• In HSE, state-provided and private students are treated the same

Model

• Survival analysis of three cohorts of HSE• Sample of over 6000 students • Dropout is indentified as academic failure

(students who left university or department with academic debts)

• Dropout analyzed over time by completion of modules (four each year) and courses of study (or years, 1-3 for the undergraduate degree).

Overall dropout in HSE1

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1 year 2 year 3 year

0

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Time period from moment of enrollment

Haza

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Dropout by faculty of study

• Comparing faculty enrollment in the initial module in a given year, the faculties with the highest dropout rates include– Philosophy– Economics– Applied mathematics/engineering

• Lowest– International institute of Economics and Finance – Department of business and political journalism

Risk of drop out

• What factors increase the risk of dropping out– The older is age of student who enter the university, the more

likely the dropout – Male students drop out at higher rates– Students from other regions (outside of Moscow city)– Students that fund themselves

• What factors reduce risk– presence of a gold medal for the school's success reduces the

likelihood of charges about 3 times

Conclusions

• The study shows that dropout rates for the elite HSE are lower than for Russia as a whole

• There is great variation in the performance by faculty of study

• Some factors fundamentally increase dropout rates (male/origin of students); and reduce dropout (high aptitude)

Next steps

• Part of a larger evaluation of student retention across Russian higher education

Exploratory comparative survey of dropout rate in Russian universities

2 Regional universities of MedicineRegional technical universityMoscow technical universityMoscow university of EconomicsMoscow state university

• 2008-2009 study year (2 semester observations), except 1 regional medical university

• Cross-sectional analysis (not cohort analysis), except Moscow state university

• Dropouts are all students left university (for any reason)• Separately for state-financed and private students

(except Moscow state university)

“Survival” rate (4 years of study for bachelors or specialists)

Regional Technical University (N=2487)

Regional University of

Medicine (N=754)

Moscow Technical university (N=665)

Moscow state university (N=7224)

Moscow university of Economics (N=2104)

35

2516

4048

55 58

75 7987

Share of private students Share of students "survived" by the end of 4-th year

Survival rate (4 years) by type of financing studying

Regional University of Medicine (N=754)

Regional Technical University (N=2487)

Moscow university of Economics

(N=2104)

Moscow Technical university (N=665)

22

36

8390

7165

91

74

Private students State-provided students

Dropout rate from magistracy (2 years)

Regional Technical University (N=382)

Moscow Technical University (N=121)

Moscow university of Economics

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

310

23

90 90 87

Share of private students Survival rate by the end of 2 courses

Dropout rates in technical universities, by courses

Regional Technical universityMoscow Technical university

1 year 2 year 3 year 4 year0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

All studentsPrivate studentsState-provided students

Drop

out r

ate,

%

1 year 2 year 3 year 4 year 5 year 6 year0

5

10

15

20

25

30

All students Private students

State-provided students

Drop

out r

ate,

%

Dropout rates in Moscow universities, by courses

Moscow university of Economics

1 year 2 year 3 year 4 year 5 year0123456789

10

All students Private students

State-provided students

Drop

out r

ate,

%

Moscow state university

1 year 2 year 3 year 4 year 5 year0123456789

10

cohorts 1993-1997cohorts 1998-2001

Dropout rate in regional medical universities

1 year 2 year 3 year 4 year 5 year 6 year0

10

20

30

40

50

60

All studentsPrivate studentsState-provided students

Drop

out r

ate,

%

1 year 2 year 3 year 4 year 5 year0123

456

789

All students Private students

State-provided students

Medical university 1 Medical university 2*

* On the information of the 1-st semester

Future plans

• Include other characteristics in model of dropout in HSE (motivation for study, attendance score, presence of work, social and academic integration)

• Include more Russian universities in analysis, collect more information (gender, entrance score, mark performance, etc.)

• International comparison