how does australia compare in the global economy? · employment / population ratio in percentage,...
TRANSCRIPT
1
NatStats 2010 Conference Sydney, 15-17 September 2010
How Does Australia Compare in the Global Economy?
Martine Durand
OECD Chief Statistician and Director of Statistics
Outline of presentation
How does Australia compare?
Australia during the recent crisis
Australia over the medium-term
What about Australian people?
Challenges for the future
2
Australia has fared well during
the crisis in terms of output…
Source: OECD (2010), National Accounts of OECD countries
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
Q4-2007 Q1-2008 Q2-2008 Q3-2008 Q4-2008 Q1-2009 Q2-2009 Q3-2009 Q4-2009 Q1-2010 Q2-2010
Gross Domestic Product
Volume, s.a.Q4 2007 = 100
Australia Canada Korea United States European Union (27 countries)
…employment…
Source: OECD (2010), Main Economic Indicators
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
Total employment Employees (Household Survey based),s.a.
Q4 2007 = 100
Australia Canada Japan United States
3
…and unemployment
Source: OECD (2010), Main Economic Indicators
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Harmonised Unemployment rates, s.a.
Australia Canada Japan OECD - Europe United States Korea
%
This good performance reflects
in part strong demand from Asia Australia, Total exports of goods by economic regions
Source: OECD (2010), International Trade by Commodity Statistics
11%
12%
13%
34%
29%
1999
NAFTA (OECD)
EUROPE (OECD)
Other
ASIA & OCEANIA
(OECD)
ASIA (Non-OECD)
6%
9%
9%
32%
44%
2009
4
... and perpetuates favourable medium-
term developments, for instance above-
average economic activity…
Source: OECD (2010), National Accounts of OECD countries
7
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Gross Domestic Product
Volume, s.a.Q1 1995 = 100
Australia Canada Korea United States European Union (27 countries)
…with a gradual reduction in the gap in
GDP per capita vis-à-vis the OECD
average1
1. Relative to the simple average of the highest 17 OECD countries in terms of GDP per capita, based on 2009 PPPs (2008 for Chile, Israel and
Slovenia).
Source: OECD, National Accounts database, OECD, Economic Outlook Database and OECD (2009), Employment Outlook
Productivity and income levels, 2009
Percentage gap with respect
to the upper half of OECD countries in
terms of GDP per capita 2
Percentage gap for labour
resource utilisation3
Percentage gap for
labour productivity4
-40 -20 0 20 40
Korea
Japan
EU19
Canada
Australia
United States
-40 -20 0 20 40 -60 -40 -20 0 20
Korea
Japan
EU19
Canada
Australia
United States
5
Good utilisation of labour, including for
some disadvantaged groups on the
labour market ...
Source: OECD Employment Outlook 2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Japan OECD Total United States Canada Australia Netherlands
Employment by selected age groupEmployment / population ratio in percentage, 2009
Age group 15-24 Age group 55-64
Above average participation rate of
women
Source: OECD Employment Outlook 2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Korea OECD total Japan United States Australia Canada Iceland
Women aged 15-64 years, percentage, 2009
2005 2009
6
Lower than average unemployment rate
of foreign-born relative to native-born
1. Second quarter 2009
Source: OECD (2010), International Migration Outlook: SOPEMI 2010
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
United States Canada Australia1 OECD average Sweden Belgium
Ratio, 2009
... But lagging labour productivity
growth...
Source: OECD Productivity Database
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
GDP per hour worked1995=100
Australia Canada Japan United States EU (17 countries)
7
… a secular rise in the terms of
trade
1. Estimated value
Source: OECD, National Account at a glance, 2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Japan Korea United States OECD Total1 Euro area Canada Australia
Ratio of export prices to import prices, 2000=100, 2008
Government finances have held up
too
1. Total OECD excludes Mexico and Turkey.
Source: OECD, Economic Outlook, volume 2010, Issue 1, May
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Australia United States Euro Area OECD1 Japan
General government gross financial liabilitiesas a percentage of GDP , 20092009 1999
8
A look at the household
perspective…
Focus on households is at the heart of the OECD work on Measuring Well-Being and the Progress of Societies
Higher actual individual consumption
growth than GDP growth (2002-2008)
Source: OECD (2010), National Accounts of OECD countries
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Japan Euro area Canada OECD-Total United States Australia Korea
Annual growth in percentage
GDP Actual individual consumption
%
9
…income inequality – Australia is
middle-of-the range and stable…
Source: Growing Unequal? Income Distribution and Poverty in OECD Countries, 2008
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Denmark Australia OECD Korea Canada Japan United States
Gini coefficients of income in OECD countries, mid-2000s
…so overall, Australians have
every reason to be happy…
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
China Russia Japan OECD United States Australia Canada
People reporting high evaluation of their life as a whole As a percentage of respondents, 2009 or latest available year
Present time Future time
Source: OECD Factbook 2010
10
…but more needs to be known
about the well-being of
Australian people
OECD is developing indicators along two dimensions
Better measurement of economic resources and their distribution, including household’s own production and wealth
Indicators of quality of life, both objective and subjective
There are challenges as well
if Australia wants to maintain
its favourable position in the
future
11
High number of people receiving
disability benefits
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
United States (++)
OECD (=) Australia (+) Canada (=) Japan (+) Korea (++)
Perc
en
tag
e o
f wo
rkin
g-a
ge p
opula
tion
2008 or latest year available (↘) Mid-1990s or earliest year available
Disability benefit recipiency rates Disability benefit recipients in percent of the population aged 20-64, mid-1990s and latest year available
Source: OECD, Sickness & Disability Policies Synthesis Report (2010, forthcoming)
About average performance in
upper-secondary education
375
400
425
450
475
500
525
550
575
Performance on science and reading scales in PISA 2006 Mean score
Science Reading
Above the OECD average
Below the OECD average OECD average in reading: 492
OECD average in science: 500
Source: OECD Factbook 2010
12
Low enrolment rates in early
childhood education
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Spain1 New Zealand Japan OECD average United States Australia Korea
Enrolment rates in early childhood education, 2008Children aged 4 and under as a per cent of the population aged 3 to 4%
Source: OECD (2010),Education at a Glance 2010
…but more needs to be known
about the skills and competencies
of the workforce
OECD has launched PIAAC
OECD works on measures of human capital
13
High obesity rates
1. For Australia, Japan, Korea, and the United States, figures are based on health examination surveys, rather than health interview surveys.
Source: OECD Health Data 2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Japan1 Korea1 Canada OECD Australia1 United States1
Percentage of adult population with Body Mass Index over 30 (obese population), 2009 (or latest year available)%
Innovation is also central: Australia
is below the OECD average for
R&D…
Source: OECD Factbook 2010
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
China European Union
Canada Australia OECD total United States Japan
Gross domestic expenditure on R&DAs a percentage of GDP
2008 or latest available year 1999 or first available year
14
…patents…
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
New Zealand Australia Canada OECD total Korea United States
Japan Switzerland
Triadic patent familiesNumber per million inhabitants, 2007
Source: OECD Factbook 2010
…and at the OECD average for
Broadband internet access
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Netherlands Korea United States Japan Australia New Zealand Slovak Republic
Other Fibre/LAN Cable DSL
OECD Fixed broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants, by technology,December 2009
OECD average
Source: OECD Broadband Statistics
15
…and there are sustainability
challenges: managing natural
resources – one of them is water
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
Israel China Japan OECD total Australia United States
Water abstractionsm³ per capita, 2007 or latest available year
Source: OECD Factbook 2010
…another one is energy ...
1. Data refer to the years 1998 and 2007
Source: OECD Factbook 2010
0
2
4
6
8
China1 Japan OECD total Australia United States Canada
Total primary energy supply per capitaTonnes of oil equivalent (toe) per capita
2008 1998
16
...and CO2 emissions
Source: IEA, Indicators for CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion - Edition 2009
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Japan OECD Canada Australia United States
CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion, 2007CO2 / Population (t CO2 per capita)
…but more needs to be known
about sustainability
OECD is developing indicators in two areas
Green Growth and the Environment
Intangible assets
17
Conclusions
Australia is in a rather favourable position in the global economy
But three are some challenges ahead to remain in that position
And new indicators are needed to better assess performance
Thank you for your
attention!
martine.durand @oecd.org