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  • Dr. Kenneth E. NidifferDirector of Strategic Plans for Government Programsnidiffer@sei.cmu.edu703.908.1117

    New Concepts and Trends- How Future Trends in Systems

    and Software Technology Bode Well for Enabling Improved Acquisition and Performance in Defense Systems

    11th Annual Systems Engineering ConferenceOctober 20-23, 2008 Hyatt Regency Mission BaySan Diego, CATheme: Technology Tipping the Balance

    2008 Carnegie Mellon University

    mailto:nidiffer@sei.cmu.edu

  • 2

    How Future Trends in Systems and Software Engineering Technologies Bode Well for Enabling the Military MissionDr. Kenneth E. Nidiffer 2008 Carnegie Mellon University

    The Software Engineering Institute - Improving the Practice of Engineering: Create, Apply and Amplify

    Federally Funded Research and Development Center

    Created in 1984

    Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Defense

    Locations in Pittsburgh, PA; Washington, DC; Frankfurt, Germany

    Operated by Carnegie Mellon University

  • 3

    How Future Trends in Systems and Software Engineering Technologies Bode Well for Enabling the Military MissionDr. Kenneth E. Nidiffer 2008 Carnegie Mellon University

    Overview

    Transformational Trends Development Acquisition Human Element Risk Management Communications

    Ten Future Trends Wrap-up

    Perfect Storm Event, October 1991National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration

  • 4

    How Future Trends in Systems and Software Engineering Technologies Bode Well for Enabling the Military MissionDr. Kenneth E. Nidiffer 2008 Carnegie Mellon University

    Development: Need for Space, Air, Ground, Water, Underwater Software-Intensive Systems that areInterconnected

    Several million SLOC programs; Hybrid systems combining legacy re-use, COTS, new development

    Multi-contractor teams using different processes; dispersed engineering, development & operational locations

    New technologies create opportunities/challenges; products change/evolve, corporations mutate

    Business/operational needs change - often faster than full system capability can be implemented

    Skillset Shortfalls; Cost and schedule constraints

    Demands for increased integration,interoperability, system of system capabilities

    Enterprise perspectives/requirements;sustainment concerns

    Development Complexity of Software-Intensive Systems

    is Increasing

  • 5

    How Future Trends in Systems and Software Engineering Technologies Bode Well for Enabling the Military MissionDr. Kenneth E. Nidiffer 2008 Carnegie Mellon University

    Software Engineering Trends That Impact Systems Engineering

    Traditional

    Standalone systems

    Mostly source code

    Requirements-driven

    Control over evolution

    Focus on software

    Stable requirements

    Premium on cost

    Staffing workable

    Future

    Everything connected-maybe

    Mostly COTS components

    Requirements are emergent

    No control over COTS evolution

    Focus on systems and software

    Rapid change

    Premium on value, speed, quality

    Scarcity of critical talent

    Emerging Dynamics of Bringing Systems and Software Engineering in Continued Partnership

  • 6

    How Future Trends in Systems and Software Engineering Technologies Bode Well for Enabling the Military MissionDr. Kenneth E. Nidiffer 2008 Carnegie Mellon University

    The Acceleration of Innovation in the 21st Century: - Impacting Both Defense and Society

    The Amount of New Technological Innovation is Doubling Every Two Years

    - Requires More Upfront SE/SW Engineering to Leverage Trends

  • 7

    How Future Trends in Systems and Software Engineering Technologies Bode Well for Enabling the Military MissionDr. Kenneth E. Nidiffer 2008 Carnegie Mellon University

    Augustines Law: Growth of Software - Order ofMagnitude Every 10 Years

    F-4A1000LOC

    1960s

    F-16C300KLOC

    1980s

    F-221.7MLOC

    1990s

    F-35>6M LOC

    2000+

    F-15A50,000LOC

    1970s

    In The Beginning

    http://home.tiscali.nl/~lbroers/picswar1/f22_1.jpghttp://home.tiscali.nl/~lbroers/picswar1/f4.jpghttp://home.tiscali.nl/~lbroers/picswar1/f4.jpghttp://home.tiscali.nl/~lbroers/picswar1/f4.jpghttp://home.tiscali.nl/~lbroers/picswar1/f4.jpg

  • 8

    How Future Trends in Systems and Software Engineering Technologies Bode Well for Enabling the Military MissionDr. Kenneth E. Nidiffer 2008 Carnegie Mellon University

    Trend & Implications: Augustines Law Will Hold

    2080?

    Need for increased functionality will be a forcing function to bring the fields of software and systems engineering closer together

    F-50 - 4.7B Lines of Code

  • 9

    How Future Trends in Systems and Software Engineering Technologies Bode Well for Enabling the Military MissionDr. Kenneth E. Nidiffer 2008 Carnegie Mellon University

    Moore's Law: The Number of Transistors That Can be Placed on an Integrated Circuit is DoublingApproximately Every Two Years

  • 10

    How Future Trends in Systems and Software Engineering Technologies Bode Well for Enabling the Military MissionDr. Kenneth E. Nidiffer 2008 Carnegie Mellon University

    Increased Technological Rate of Adoption

    1009080706050403020101 110

    Electricity(1873) Telephone

    (1876)

    Automobile(1886)

    Television(1926) Radio

    (1905)VCR

    (1952)

    Microwave(1953)

    Cell Phone(1983)

    PC(1975)

    Source: Rich Kaplan, Microsoft

    Internet(1975)

    90

    80

    70

    60

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    100

    Percentage of Ow

    nership

    No. of Years Since Invention

    Source: Rich Kaplan, Microsoft

    Automobile = 56 years

    Telephone = 36 years

    Television = 26 years

    Cell phone = 14 years

    http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=www.crystalcitysportspub.com/TELEVISION.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.crystalcitysportspub.com/&h=588&w=484&prev=/images%3Fq%3DTelevision%26start%3D20%26num%3D20%26sa%3DNhttp://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=www.catholicweb.com/imagegallery/General_clipart_lrg/Cell%2520Phone.gif&imgrefurl=http://home.catholicweb.com/maryqueenschool/index.cfm/NewsItem%3FID%3D9357%26From%3DHome&h=277&w=240&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dcell%2Bphone%26start%3D20%26num%3D20%26sa%3DN

  • 11

    How Future Trends in Systems and Software Engineering Technologies Bode Well for Enabling the Military MissionDr. Kenneth E. Nidiffer 2008 Carnegie Mellon University

    Relationship Between Complexity and AcquisitionSuccess Improving and More Improvements areon the WaySoftware is Growing in Complexity

    80% of some weapon system functionality is dependent upon software

    Consequences of software failure can be catastrophic

    Software Acquisition is Difficult 46% are over-budget (byan average of 47%) or late(by an average of 72%)

    Successful projects have68% of specified features

    Software is Pervasive IT Systems, C4ISR, Weapons, etc

    Standish Group CHAOS Report

    16%27%26%28%34%

    29%35%

    31%40%

    28%23%15%

    19%

    53%33%

    46%49%51%53%

    46%18%

    0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

    1994199619982000200220042006

    On-time On budget Cancelled Late and Over budg

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    1960 1964 1970 1975 1982 1990 2000

    Perc

    ent F

    unct

    ions

    Per

    form

    ed

    in S

    oftw

    are B-2

    F-22

    F-4F-16

    F-15F-111

    A-7

    On-going Changes to the AcquisitionProcess Targeted at Correcting this Issue

  • 12

    How Future Trends in Systems and Software Engineering Technologies Bode Well for Enabling the Military MissionDr. Kenneth E. Nidiffer 2008 Carnegie Mellon University

    Acquisition: Life of a Program Manager in a System of Systems and/or Net-Centric Operation

  • 13

    How Future Trends in Systems and Software Engineering Technologies Bode Well for Enabling the Military MissionDr. Kenneth E. Nidiffer 2008 Carnegie Mellon University

    Acquisition: Effectively Managing Risk

    A Key Challenge is How to Obtain a Better Alignment of Risk Among the Relevant Stakeholders

  • 14

    How Future Trends in Systems and Software Engineering Technologies Bode Well for Enabling the Military MissionDr. Kenneth E. Nidiffer 2008 Carnegie Mellon University

    Acquisition Challenges: Some Drivers That Increase theRisk of Acquiring Software-Intensive Systems

    Enterprise

    StrategicTeaming

    Layers &Stacks

    Plug & PlayProprietaryArchitectures and Standards

    Boxes Integration Challenge

    DominantPrime Program Execution

    Platform Customer Emphasis

    Objectives/CapabilitiesRequirements Acquisition Model

    Need Exists to Address Both Sides, and Do So with Compressed Delivery Schedules via Improvements in Systems/Software Engineering

  • 15

    How Future Trends in Systems and Software Engineering Technologies Bode Well for Enabling the Military MissionDr. Kenneth E. Nidiffer 2008 Carnegie Mellon University

    Increased Reliance on Acquirer/Developer to ReduceRisk by Effectively Navigating the Green/Acquisition Space

    Source: Nidiffer and Dolan, IEEE Software, Sept/Oct 2005

  • 16

    How Future Trends in Systems and Software Engineering Technologies Bode Well for Enabling the Military MissionDr. Kenneth E. Nidiffer 2008 Carnegie Mellon University

    Acquisition Performance FlexibleBoundary-Crossing Acquisition Structure

    2005 study confirmed*: In advanced knowledge

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