how many bachelor’s degrees does florida need by 2025?
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How Many Bachelor’s Degrees Does Florida Need by 2025? Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment September 26, 2012 Tampa, Florida Presentation by Jan Ignash, Board of Governors. Example: BOG 2012-2025 System Strategic Plan. 2. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
How Many Bachelor’s Degrees Does Florida Need by 2025?
Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment
September 26, 2012Tampa, Florida
Presentation by Jan Ignash, Board of Governors
www.flbog.edu
Example: BOG 2012-2025 System Strategic Plan
2
Goal to produce 90,000 bachelor’s degrees by the year 2025,is about 7,000 more than the Historical Trend
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,00090,000
53,392
83,400
STRATEGIC PLAN GOAL HISTORICAL TREND
projectionsactual
www.flbog.edu
3 Key Definitions
Demand: How many degree holders does Florida’s economy need ?• Benchmarking Florida’s degree attainment goals against the degree
attainment performance of the nation or of other states
• Benchmarking Florida’s degree attainment goals against the degree attainment performance of other nations
• Establishing degree attainment goals based on economic/fiscal benefit
Supply: How many degree holders can Florida’s postsecondary system generate? • Historical growth trends
• Increasing the high school graduation rate
• Increasing the college continuation rate of high school graduates
• Increasing the continuation rate of A.A. graduates
• Increasing adult education
www.flbog.edu
Demand Methodologies
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Demand Methodology: Benchmarking Florida’s degree attainment goals against the degree
attainment performance of the nation or of other states
5
Florida’s Educational AttainmentAdditional Degrees Needed Among 25-34 yr olds
Source: Board staff analysis of American Community Survey (ACS)– see link; and, EDR population estimates (Nov. 2011) for 25-34 year old age group – see link.
In 2010, Florida needed an additional 132,000 25-34 year olds with
bachelor’s and graduate degrees to meet the national and “BIG 10”
Benchmarks of 31%.
EDR projects Florida’s 2025 population of 25-34 year olds will only grow by
500,000 from the 2010 level.
If Florida increased its percentage to 31% by 2025, then half, or 287,000,
of Florida’s new 25-34 year olds would need a bachelor’s or graduate degree.
2010 2015 2020 20250
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
580,289
132,000 196,000 260,000 287,000
25-34yr Population with Bachelor's Degree or Higher in 2010 Additional 25-24yr Population with Bachelor's Degree or Higher Other 25-34yr Population without Bachelor's Degree or Higher
[See also Supporting Slides 2-7.]
www.flbog.edu
The U.S. College Attainment Gap Compared to the Most Educated OECD Countries
6
Source: SOURCE: OECD, Education at a Glance (2011), Appendix A: table A1.3a; available at:
http://www.oecd.org/education/highereducationandadultlearning/48630299.pdf
Demand Methodology: Benchmarking Florida’s degree attainment goals against the degree
attainment performance of other nations
[See also Supporting Slide 8.]
www.flbog.edu
Source: BOG staff analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Real GDP in 2005 Chained dollars – see link; and 2010 Census population data from 2012 Statistical Abstract (table 16) – see link.
7
per capita GDP
StateQuintiles
2010 per capitaGDP
% of 25-64with Bachelor’s
and Higher (2010)
Top 10 $63,238 35%
11-20 $45,208 32%
21-30 $40,744 30%
31-40 $36,233 28%
41-51 $31,796 24%
USA $41,843 30%
Florida $34,983 27%
Educational Attainment Impact on State Economies
When broken into quintiles, a state’s Educational Attainment is strongly associatedwith its per capita Gross Domestic Product and per capita Net Earnings.
StateQuintiles
2011 per capitaNet Earnings
% of 25-64with Bachelor’s
and Higher (2010)
Top 10 $43,670 36%
11-20 $37,460 31%
21-30 $33,660 29%
31-40 $30,680 26%
41-51 $27,170 24%
USA $35,600 30%
Florida $27,500 27%
per capita Net Earnings
Demand Methodology: Establishing degree attainment goals based on economic/fiscal benefit
[See also Supporting Slides 9-10.]
www.flbog.edu
Counting Jobs by Education Level – The Effects of Overlap
8
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Tables 1.11 and 1.12– see link.
Less thanhigh school
High schoolDiploma
Some college,no degree
Postsecondary non-degree
award
Associate'sDegree
Bachelor'sDegree
Master'sDegree
DoctoralDegree
GrandTotal
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%10%
19%
41%
12%
44%
71%81%
97%
29%
Classification of National Occupations by Education Levelbased on Bureau of Labor Statistics Taxonomy
% Workers without High School Diploma % Workers with High School Diploma % Workers with Some college, no degree% Workers with Associate's degree % Workers with Bachelor's or higher
OCCUPATIONS BY EDUCATION LEVEL
% W
OR
KER
S
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How We Classify the Educational Levels Needed by Various Occupations Yield Significantly Different Results
9
SOURCE: Florida data is from the Dept. of Economic Opportunity; National data is from Bureau of Labor Statistics – see link.
GraduateDegrees
Bachelor'sDegrees
Associate'sDegrees
Postsecondary Vocational High SchoolDiploma
Less thanHigh School
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
3%
10%
14%
37%
19%17%
4%
16%
4%
20% 19%
37%
5%
16%
6% 5%
43%
26%
Employment by Educational Taxonomy
Florida Jobs (DOE/DEO Taxonomy) Florida Jobs (BLS Taxonomy) National Jobs (BLS Taxonomy)
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10 The Business Perspective on Job Classification
• More than half (53%) of business leaders say their companies face a very or fairly major challenge in recruiting non-managerial employees with the skills, training, and education their company needs, despite unemployment close to 10% and millions of Americans seeking jobs at the time of our survey.
• The majority of business leaders (63%) believe a four-year bachelor’s degree is the important degree to achieve success in the workplace, while only 18% believe a career or technical credential and 14% believe a two-year associate’s degree are important to achieve such success.
• More than three in four business leaders believe that increasing postsecondary completion will have an extremely or very positive impact on the U.S. economy (79%) and workforce productivity (76%). They also recognize the potential to affect both the success of their company (75%) and their company’s ability to hire and retain employees with the necessary skills and knowledge (75%).Across The Great Divide: Perspectives of CEOs
and College Presidents on America’s Higher Education and Skills Gap (2011)
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Supply Methodologies
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Supply Methodology: Historical growth trendsBachelor’s Degrees
Sources: U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics (IPEDS) data.
Note*: Projections for ‘Florida (Historical trend)’ are based on maintaining the 8yr historical average growth rate of 3,000 per year.
12
Historically, the SUS produces 63% - 65% of Florida’s Bachelor’s degreesFlorida Total Includes: SUS, ICUF, CIE, FCS.
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
86,249
128,300
54,614
83,400
FLORIDA (all sectors) based on Historical Trend SUS based on Historical Trend
projectionsactual
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Supply Methodology: Historical growth trendsGraduate Degrees
Sources: U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics (IPEDS) data.
Note*: Projections for ‘Florida (Historical trend)’ are based on maintaining the 8yr historical average growth rate.
13
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
29,386
47,00038,521
62,900
Graduate Degrees in Florida
Master's Degrees Graduate Degrees
projectionsactual
[See also Supporting Slide 11.]
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Florida’s Race To The Top GoalsDouble the Percent Earning College Credit
14
Source: Florida Department of Education
as of March 2011
Supply Methodology: Increasing the high school graduation rate
[See also Supporting Slide 12.]
www.flbog.edu
Source: US DOE 2011 Digest of Education Statistics, Table 212 – see link. Note: The most recently available data is for 2008 high school graduates.
15
Florida is ranked 38th
in the percent of its public and private high school graduates who continue on to an Associates or higher degree-granting institution in any state.
1st Quartile
2nd Quartile
3rd Quartile
4th Quartile
65%
57%
74%
59%
57%
64%
63%
60%
70%
66%
USA: 63%BIG 10: 63%
Florida’s College Continuation Rateis among the lowest in the country
Supply Methodology: Increasing the college continuation rate of high school graduates
[See also Supporting Slides 13-14.]
www.flbog.edu
Florida College System’s AA Degrees & Cont. Ed.Actual and Projections: What Can the FCS Contribute?
16
Source: BOG staff analysis of FCS degree production and FETPIP’s Annual Outcomes Report. Note: FCS AA recipients who re-enrolled in FCS are not counted as Continuing Education.
Historically,45%-50% of AA recipients continue their education within theSUS or ICUFthe following year.
Based on historical trends, AA degree production is projected to increase tomore than 100,000 by 2025.
2002-2
003
2003-2
004
2004-2
005
2005-2
006
2006-2
007
2007-2
008
2008-2
009
2009-2
010
2010-2
011
2011-2
012
2012-2
013
2013-2
014
2014-2
015
2015-2
016
2016-2
017
2017-2
018
2018-2
019
2019-2
020
2020-2
021
2021-2
022
2022-2
023
2023-2
024
2024-2
025
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
AA degrees Continue Education
projectionsactual
Supply Methodology: Increasing the continuation rate of A.A. graduates
www.flbog.edu
Sources: FETPIP – 2009-10 Annual Outcomes Report
http://www.fldoe.org/fetpip/pdf/0910pdf/pubs0910text.pdf
Note: GED Completers data based on national report (see link) and percentage continuing education is based on FETPIP data (from smaller sample).
17
Annually, more than 200,000 of Florida’s students do not
continue their postsecondary education.
The Florida College Access Network has reported that 2.1 million adults in Florida went to College but did not
finish. And, between 2008-11 more than 100,000 students left the FCS and SUS after only completing half of their
degree program.SUS non-completers
FCS non-completers
FCS completers
GED
High School graduates
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000
25,700
51,400
20,800
23,900
45,400
42,100
Annual Summary of Students Who Do Not Continue Their Education
Series1
Potential Additional Annual Supply of Completers who Do Not Continue and Non-Completers
Supply Methodology: Increasing adult education
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The Dual Nature of theNet Migration of Degree
Holders
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Florida’s Net Domestic Migration
Source: US Census 2006-2010 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates of Geographic Mobility – Tables B07009 & B07409.
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
MOVE TO FLORIDA MOVE AWAY FROM FLORIDA
+5,396
+6,379
+8,765+8,713
+663
Domestic Migration In/Out of Floridaby Educational Attainment Level (2006-2010)
19
• During the past 5 years, 39% of Florida’s Net Migrants (25 years and older) have had a Bachelor’s or graduate degree, which is considerably higher than the educational attainment of Florida’s resident population (of 25%).
[See also Supporting Slides 15-16.]
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Next Steps
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Summary of Degree Goals21
Notes: OECD goal based on College Credential Dashboard estimates for Florida’s contribution – see link.
HISTORICALTREND
BIG 10 AVGper 1,000 18-24yr
BIG 10 AVG% of 25-34yr
OECDGOAL
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
86,240in 2010
86,240in 2010
86,240in 2010
86,250
42,000more by
2025
60,000more by
2025
65,000more by
2025
93,000more by
2025
128,300 146,200
151,300
179,300
Bachelor Degree Production Targets for 2025
www.flbog.edu
Three Primary Policy Areas for Achieving Degree Targets
22
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
86,000
20,000
30,000
30,000
166,000
TOTAL
Increase Adult Education initiatives
Increase AA Transfer rates
Increase FTIC Pipeline rates
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Educational Attainment by County Where Do we Expect Florida’s Growth?
23
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To Recap• Board of Governors SUS goal to produce 90,000 bachelor’s degrees each year by 2025 can be achieved.
• Combined with ICUF, CIE and FCS institutions, the system could be producing 128,000 bachelor’s degrees each year by 2025 if we simply do what we’re doing now.
IF WE CONTINUE DOING WHAT WE’RE DOING, IS THAT ENOUGH?