how social media predicts australia's 2013 x-factor winner

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Predicting the result of Australia’s

FOLLOWERS AUDIENCE ENGAGEMENT SOCIAL SENTIMENT

FACEBOOK FACEBOOK POSITIVITY

30,381 39.19% 18.80%

TWITTER TWITTER NEGATIVITY

15,836 32.6% POTENTIAL IMPRESSIONS

66.93 MILLION 1.48%

INSTAGRAM INSTAGRAM TOP SPOT iTUNES

66,689 259.14% 1 BRIDGE OVER TROUBLED WATERS

YOUTUBE CHANNEL YOUTUBE COMMENTS YOUTUBE VIEWS

4,940 9,882 4.16MILLION VIEWS

SEARCHES (Jul–Sept) SEARCH TREND

193,100 +508.86%

TAYLOR HENDERSON

BETTING ODDS

$5.00

BETTING ODDS

$1.45

JAIWAETFORD

BETTING ODDS

$3.75



158,656 3.93% 9.68%



30.91 MILLION 0.46%


192,089 209.11% 19 I WANNA HOLD YOUR HAND


34,658 14,838 8.81MILLION VIEWS


164,000 -33.11%



45,968 58.92% 11.03%



15.09 MILLION 0.45%


124,626 209.11% 1 GIRLS JUST WANNA HAVE FUN


6,118 5,089 3.98 MILLIONVIEWS


45.700 +22.65%

DAMI IM

What drives people to vote for their favourite?What drives people to vote for their favourite?

MUSIC FACTOR: A weighted score based on ARIA chart success, iTunes downloads and views of the official X‐Factor YouTube videos.

Dami Jai Taylor187.16 137.81 198.98

MUSIC FACTORGreat songs backed by great performances are rewarded by record sales, downloads and high video views. We also know that record sales and iTunes downloads are considered in the voting process.

Jai’s audition performance has almost twice as many YouTube views (3.96 million) as the others’ combined.

Dami’s live performance of ‘Purple Rain’ is the most‐watched song that isn’t an

audition, boot‐camp or home‐visit performance. It is the live performances only that are recognised on the ARIA charts and downloaded from iTunes.

Taylor is the most‐successful artist in terms of numbers of songs and their longevity in the iTunes charts.

Importantly, his performance of ‘Girl’s Just Want To Have Fun’ is iTunes’ number‐one song in the lead‐up to the grand final.

Taylor is the best‐performing artist on the ARIA charts, having achieved a top‐ten

position with his performance of ‘The Horses’.

Neither Dami nor Jai have achieved an Australian top‐ten song throughout X‐Factor 2013.

Dami’s heavily promoted performance of ‘Bridge Over Troubled Waters’ achieved iTunes chart success back in September, but she has not maintained that momentum leading in to the final.

Verdict: TAYLOR HENDERSON

FAN FACTORWith over three‐quarters of a million social‐media followers, these three artists have found new and interesting ways to brings their fans closer in just 12 weeks.

While Facebook, Twitter and YouTube are obvious channels, this year’s X‐Factor sees Instagram as perhaps the primary mode of engagement for

followers of Dami (66,689), Jai (192,089) and Taylor (124,676).

Acquisition of fans may also be extremely helpful beyond the X‐Factor, giving the artists a solid fan‐base to build their careers upon.

Expect to see all three of the grand finalists again in the future.

Verdict: JAI WAETFORD

BUZZ FACTORLeading in to the grand final, building talkability and engaging with fans will be of the utmost importance. These fans need to vote (early and often, apparently) to ensure the artists’ efforts to win X‐Factor 2013 will not have been in vain.

Instagram Likes and Comments are generating the most engagement for the artists. Jai has the most recent engagements (381,378), followed by Taylor (265,512) then Dami (177,458). However, when considered as a whole, people are more inclined to interact with Dami’s photos, perhaps

because hers include more images of her with fans and at performances, rather than mere selfies.

And while Dami may have fewer Twitter followers than her opponents, her most important fan (mentor Dannii Minogue, with 1.18 million followers) makes a point of amplifying every 140‐character message sent by her protégé. (Taylor and Jai’s mentor, Ronan Keating, has almost 431,000 Twitter followers.)

How fans speak of the contestants also impacts people’s impressions. With the uneven weight that negative commentary has upon consideration, it is significant that

all artists have done well to keep conversations upbeat, enthusiastic and supportive. Dami has the highest amount of positivity expressed in her performances (18.8% of her social chatter), closely followed by Taylor (11.03%) then Jai (9.68%)

Web‐site search activity has grown significantly, and indicates who has the most interest leading in to the grand final. With this in mind, Dami has the most momentum, with an increase of over 500% between August (27,100) and September (165,000). Searches for Jai are on the wane, falling over 33% (74,000 to 49,500).

Verdict: DAMI IM

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

117,826 433,229 203,480

Dami Jai Taylor15.62 57.42 26.97

FAN FACTOR: All followers combined of the three artists and the percentage held by each.

Dami Jai Taylor623.11 241.53 338.45

BUZZ FACTOR: A calculation of social‐media sentiment, engagement rates on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Instagram and recent search‐volume trends.

Sources: Synthesio.com; SimplyMeasured.com; Facebook Insights; YouTube data; AriaCharts.com.au; Australian‐Charts.com; Google Analytics; SportsBet.com.au

how social media predicts australia's 2013 x-factor winner

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