how the germans will travel 2015

How Germans Will Travel 2015

Table of Contents

Market Intelligence Report

www.tourism-intelligence.com

©Tourism Intelligence International www.tourism-intelligence.com

How Germans will Travel 2015 ii

Tourism Intelligence International

Tourism Intelligence International is a leading research and consultancy company,

that provides innovative solutions for the travel and tourism industry. Innovation,

sustainability and competitiveness are the hallmarks of this consultancy. This report

— How Germans will Travel 2015 — is another in a series of tourism market

analyses. Other reports from Tourism Intelligence International include:

Sustainable Tourism Development – A Practical Guide for Decision-Makers !1,499.00 Travel & Tourism’s Top Ten Emerging Markets (forthcoming 2008) !1,299.00 Successful Hotels and Resorts – Lessons from the Leaders !1,299.00 Successful Tourism Destinations – Lessons from the Leaders !1,299.00 How the Americans will Travel 2015 !1,299.00 How Germans will Travel 2015 !1299.00 How the British will Travel 2010 !1299.00 How the Japanese will Travel 2007 !799.00 World Travel and Tourism – Year in Review (forthcoming 2009) ! 499.00 Tourism Industry Intelligence Newsletter (monthly) !219.00

Tourism Intelligence International: German Office Trinidad Office An der Wolfskuhle 48 50 Richmond Street 33619 Bielefeld Port of Spain Germany Trinidad, West Indies Tel: (49) 521 16 38 83 Tel: (868) 625 44 43 Fax: (49) 521 16 38 84 Fax: (868) 625 44 20 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]

Website: http://www.tourism-intelligence.com

© 2008 Tourism Intelligence International. All rights reserved.

Terms of Use and Copyright Conditions

The material contained in this report has been derived from statistical, trade, company and other sources, including Tourism Intelligence International estimates. All information is verified to the best of the authors’ and publisher’s ability. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, Tourism Intelligence International cannot accept liability for any data herein, any interpretation made therefrom, or for any loss arising from reliance thereon.

Tourism Intelligence International reserves all copyright under international copyright law. How Germans Will Travel 2015 may not be copied, stored, reproduced or published in any format, in whole or in part, by any means — electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise — or disseminated to any third party without prior written permission of Tourism Intelligence International, Germany

Published July 2008 ISBN-13 978-976-95061-8-3 (pbk) Cover designed by Lonsdale Saatchi & Saatchi Advertising Limited, produced and printed by Tourism Intelligence International, Germany.


How Germans Will Travel 2015 vii

About the Authors

Dr. Auliana Poon heads Tourism Intelligence International Ltd., a leading international

consulting company that provides innovative solutions for the travel and tourism industry.

Innovation, sustainability and competitiveness are the hallmarks of this consultancy.

Auliana Poon led the teams that developed the tourism policy and strategy for the new South

Africa in 1996; developed strategies for trend-setting companies such Sandals International

(Jamaica) and Conservation Corporation (Africa); and developed the “tourism begins at

home” programme that sparked the turn around in the Bahamas tourism industry in the early

1990s. Auliana Poon also led Tourism Intelligence International’s technical support teams in

implementing the Euro 6 million Eco-Tourism Development Programme (2003-2007) in the

Commonwealth of Dominica and in St. Vincent and the Grenadines (2007-2009). In 2005,

she undertook the competitive assessment of the Barbados Tourism Industry; developed the

framework for the management and promotion of the Abu Dhabi tourism industry (2004);

the Singapore Tourism Board (2003-2004); developed the Marketing and Human resource

development strategies for Mozambique (2004-2005). She has provided critical support to

the development of a UniVisa System (along the lines of Schengen) in the Southern African

Region in preparation for World Cup 2010 and is responsible for the development of one of

the Caribbean’s leading resort brands in Africa.

Auliana Poon is analyst, co-author and editor of many of Tourism Intelligence International

Publications including ‘How Germany will Travel 2015’; ‘How the British will Travel

2010’, ‘How Americans will Travel 2010’ (forthcoming) and Travel and Tourism’s Top Ten

Emerging Markets (forthcoming) as well as the company’s monthly newsletter (since 1994),

‘Tourism Industry Intelligence’ that is also available in Spanish.

Auliana Poon is credited with:

! Inventing the concepts of ‘Old Tourism’ and ‘New Tourism’ to describe the rapid and

radical transformation of the travel and tourism industry.

! Developed the concept of ‘Responsible Tourism’ as a fundamental premise of the

South Africa tourism policy and growth strategy in the early 1990s.

! Producing one of the most referenced works on travel and tourism ‘Tourism,

Technology and Competitive Strategies’ that one review claims ”should certainly be

on the compulsory reading list of all those seeking to advise and direct strategic plan

for both old and new tourism destinations”.

! Advising Abu Dhabi to ‘stay different’ from Dubai; to focus on its culture, heritage

and traditions and to assume its role as a true capital of the Emirates, with an

appropriate icon – The Pearl – a pearl-like glass structure on 11 floors, out at sea, that

www.tourism-intelligence.com © Tourism Intelligence International

viii

would celebrate the life and times of its late Ruler Sheik Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan

(1971-2004).

! Developed the concept of ‘Compassionate Tourism’ for Malawi.

Auliana regularly addresses travel and tourism conferences in many countries including

Aruba, Barcelona, Barbados, Benin, Brazil, Denmark, Geneva, Greece, Iceland, Hong Kong,

Minnesota, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Germany, London, Mozambique, Singapore, South

Africa, Washington and many others.

An economist by training, Auliana Poon ([email protected]) graduated with

a B.A (hons) and and M.Sc (Economics) from the University of the West Indies, Trinidad.

She attended one of the leading European Schools, the Science Policy Research Unit at

Sussex University (England), where she graduated with a D. Phil (Tourism & Technology)

in 1988.

Dieter Semmelroth is a trained economist and sociologist who studied in Germany and

Jamaica. In 1980 he started his career as an Associate Expert for the International Labour

Organization based in Nassau, Bahamas, and Kingston, Jamaica. Later he worked in various

capacities for international consulting firms in South America, Africa and Asia. In 1991 he

joined Preussag AG as a specialist for Project Finance. In the following years, Semmelroth

was involved in the financing of infrastructure and industrial projects, located mainly in

Russia and CIS countries. After Preussag’s acquisition of TUI in 1997, he was engaged in

project development and aircraft and hotel financing. More recently, Mr. Semmelroth has

been involved in financing TUI’s hotel projects in South-Eastern Europe and Northern

Africa. Currently he holds the position of Senior Manager Structured Finance at one of

Europe’s largest tour operators TUI AG, Germany.

Eric Adams graduated with First Class Honours (Mathematics and Economics) from the

University of the West Indies (Trinidad). He holds an M.Sc. in Actuarial Science from the

University of Iowa (USA) and an MBA (Finance and Investments) from George

Washington University (USA). Eric Adams is a Business Consultant specialising in the

areas of tourism and financial forecasting, investments and financial IT systems

development. Eric Adams is an Associate of the Society of Actuaries and a Member of the

American Academy of Actuaries. He also lectures in tourism forecasting demand and has

developed forecasts for tourism arrivals to many regions and destinations worldwide.

Kevon Wilson, graduated with Upper Second Class Honours from the University of the

West Indies (St. Augustine, Trinidad) in 2000, after reading a Bachelor of Science degree in

Management and Finance. Kevon Wilson is a Research Analyst at Tourism Intelligence

International. One of his recent assignments was in the Commonwealth of Dominica where

he provided technical support to the Euro 6 billion Eco-Tourism Development Programme, a


How Germans Will Travel 2015 ix

programme funded by the European Union and implemented by Tourism Intelligence

International. Kevon Wilson was also a Senior Executive at an investment agency, in charge

of Product Development and Administration. Prior to joining Tourism Intelligence

International, Kevon Wilson spent two years in London where, apart from pursuing his

studies, he worked as a manager at one of the largest UK-based restaurant chains, JD

Wetherspoon.

Johannes Spalburg has more than 15 years of international Sales & Marketing experience

in the Hospitality & Travel Industry, while based in 5 different countries on 3 different

continents (Europe, the Americas and Southern Africa). He holds an MBA in Hospitality

Management from Cornell/Essex (IMHI, France) and speaks 6 (six) languages, including

Dutch, English, French, German and Spanish, as well as Italian. Jo Spalburg worked as

Marketing Consultant for Horwarth International France (Paris) and occupied various Sales

& Marketing positions - at Headquarters, Regional and Local level- for a number of

international hospitality and travel firms, including: MKI Ltd – i.e. Wyndham Hotels &

Resorts, South Seas Resorts, Renaissance Cruises, Pemberton Hotels and many other

independent Hotels and Resorts - (London), ITT Sheraton Luxury Hotels (London), Jet

Hotels (Air France Group, Paris), Hilton International France (Paris & Strasbourg) and

Steigenberger Hotel Krasnapolsky (Amsterdam) and the Caribbean Tourism Organisation.

Jo Spalburg carried out primary research on many international markets on behalf of

Tourism Intelligence International’s clients including Abu Dhabi, Barbados, Mozambique

and Singapore.


x

Acknowledgements

In preparing this report, Tourism Intelligence International would like to specially thank the

many German Tour Operators who took the time and effort to complete our survey. The

authors would also like to thank the many individual tourism destinations that supplied key

data for our forecasts; Barbara Morris for her research assistance and her coordination of the

German Tour Operator Survey; Lea Katharina Kramer and Waldemar Wagner who also

provided research assistance; and the World Tourism Organisation and the Caribbean

Tourism Organisation for the data provided.


How the Germans Will Travel 2015 i

Foreword

Germany is world champion in terms of trips and nights spent abroad. The

country is second only to the US in tourist spending. In 2015, Germany is

expected to retain its position as one of the world’s largest source markets for

tourists. The German market is a lucrative source market. Consider that:

! Germans have an enormous appetite for travel. Two-thirds of all Germans

opt to travel abroad rather than holiday at home.

! Germans have the highest travel propensity in the world. In 2007, more than

three-quarters of all Germans took at least one holiday or more.

! Germany’s potential travelling population is conservatively estimated at 65

million – larger than the absolute population of any single country in Europe.

! Germans have the most paid holidays in the world (6 weeks per year).

! It is socially acceptable for Germans to take holidays.

! The holiday has become as much a basic necessity as owning a car.

Germans will not give up their holiday easily.

Tourist destinations and businesses the world over are targeting the German-

speaking market. At the same time, the German, Swiss and Austrian travel

markets are complex. Austrian, German and Swiss travellers are informed,

individual and demanding clients, and their travel industry structures are highly

competitive and changing rapidly.

This report is written for all tourism destinations and businesses that are

interested in targeting the German-speaking market:

! Airlines

! Hotels & resorts

! Cruise lines

! Incoming agencies

! Auto rental companies

! Travel Agencies & Tour Operators

! Consultants

! Credit card companies

! Corporate travel and tourism research offices worldwide

! National Tourism Offices

! Government Ministries and planning authorities.


German travel behaviour is well-researched. Forschungsgemeinschaft für

Urlaub und Reisen (F.U.R) does a quantitative survey of the German market

periodically. BAT Freizeit-Forschungsinstitut has done research on trends and

the more qualitative aspects of leisure behaviour. The innovation of this report

is to pull this information from many other valuable sources together as well as

field its own tour operator survey to deliver:

1) Forecast data on travel patterns;

2) A thorough understanding of the demographic and psychographic

German travel market.

3) An understanding of the key future trends in the German-speaking

market and

4) Concrete guidelines on how to target the German-speaking market.

How Germans Will Travel 2015 delivers essential information needed to

understand and effectively target the German, Austrian and Swiss travel

markets.

How Germans Will Travel 2015:

! explains how, why and the extent to which the German market will grow to

2015;

! identifies the most lucrative states in Germany to target;

! identifies the regions that will have the most rapid growth of German tourist

arrivals;

! analyses how Germans think, feel and behave;

! examines the special interest markets with growth potential;

! predicts how the German market will grow to 2015;

! provides detailed information on the legal hazards of operating in Germany;

! provides information that will help you target the German market more

effectively;

! Identifies key actions and strategies needed to target the German market; and

! provides analyses of the Austrian and Swiss travel markets.

How Germans Will Travel 2015 is compulsory reading for all those who are

interested in targeting the lucrative German-speaking market.

Bielefeld, July 2008.


How Germans Will Travel 2015 iii

Contents

About the Authors

Foreword

Executive Summary

1. The German Travel Market ...............................................................................................1!

1.1! Size and Importance ..................................................................................................... 3!

1.2! Federal States and Their Travel Intensities .................................................................. 9!

1.3! Federal States.............................................................................................................. 11!

1.4! Income Levels ............................................................................................................ 18!

1.5! Rate of Economic Growth .......................................................................................... 19!

1.6 Unemployment Levels................................................................................................ 20!

1.7! Travel Intensity........................................................................................................... 20!

1.8! Most Lucrative States ................................................................................................. 21!

1.9! Differences Between East and West........................................................................... 24!

2. German Travel Patterns ...................................................................................................27!

2.1! Travel Market Growth................................................................................................ 29!

2.2! Preference for Holidays Abroad................................................................................ 32!

2.3! Main and Additional Holiday Trips .......................................................................... 34!

2.4! Staggered School Holidays......................................................................................... 35!

2.5! Time of Decision to Travel....................................................................................... 36!

2.6! Time of Travel .......................................................................................................... 37!

2.7! Organisation of the Main Holiday Trip ...................................................................... 39!

2.8! Who Germans Travel With ........................................................................................ 42!

2.9! Where Germans Stay .................................................................................................. 43!

2.10! How Much Germans Spend...................................................................................... 46!

3. Special Interest Markets ...................................................................................................51!

3.1! The German Cruise Market ........................................................................................ 53!

3.1.1! Ocean Cruises ...................................................................................................... 53!

3.1.2! River Cruises ....................................................................................................... 59!

3.1.3! Why Cruises?....................................................................................................... 61!

3.1.4! Outlook for the German Cruise Market............................................................... 63!

3.2 ! The German Golf Market .......................................................................................... 64!

3.2.1! Growth in the German Golf Market .................................................................... 64!

3.2.2! Profile of the German Golfer............................................................................... 65!

3.2.3! Travel Preference of German Golfers ................................................................. 66!

3.2.4! Expectations of Golf Travellers........................................................................... 68!

3.3! Health and Wellness ................................................................................................... 69!

3.3.1! Types of Health and Wellness Holidays ............................................................. 70!


iv

3.3.2! Health and Wellness versus Other Holiday Types .............................................. 71!

3.3.3 ! Why Health and Wellness? ................................................................................ 73!

3.3.4! Profile of the Health and Wellness Tourist ......................................................... 73!

3.3.5! Future Outlook for Health and Wellness............................................................. 75!

3.3.6! Top Health & Wellness Destinations .................................................................. 76!

3.4! !Sailing ........................................................................................................................ 77!

3.5! Diving ........................................................................................................................ 79!

3.6! !Holiday Types Affecting German Outbound Travel to 2015.................................... 80!

4. The German Traveller ......................................................................................................83!

4.1 Age, Income and Education ..........................................................................................85!

4.1.1 Age .........................................................................................................................85!

4.1.2 Income ....................................................................................................................90!

4.1.3 Education................................................................................................................91!

4.2 Germans Want Quality ..................................................................................................93!

4.3 Motivation for Travel ....................................................................................................96!

4.4 What Germans Do on Holiday ......................................................................................98!

4.5 Future German Holiday Motives.................................................................................100!

4.6 Future Holiday Interests ..............................................................................................101!

4.7 Types of German Travellers ........................................................................................103!

4.8 Germans are “New” Tourists.......................................................................................111!

4.9 From Escape to Fulfilment ..........................................................................................113!

4.10 Growing Environmental Concern..............................................................................114!

4.11 Interest in Contact with Locals..................................................................................118!

4.12 Future Target Markets ..............................................................................................118!

4.13 Germans Will Travel .................................................................................................120!

5. Where Germans Travel ..................................................................................................121!

5.1! Preferred Destinations ..............................................................................................123!

5.2! World Regions at a Glance.......................................................................................126!

5.3! The European Region ...............................................................................................129!

5.4! Destinations Outside of Europe................................................................................133!

5.5! The East Asia & Pacific Rim....................................................................................134!

5.6! The Americas............................................................................................................138!

5.6.1! North America ...................................................................................................139!

5.6.2! The Caribbean ...................................................................................................141!

5.6.3! Central & South America ..................................................................................143!

5.7! The African Region ..................................................................................................146!

5.8! The Middle East .......................................................................................................149!

5.9! South Asia ................................................................................................................150!

5.10! Destination Marketing Strategies ...........................................................................153!

6. German Travel Forecast to 2015....................................................................................155!

6.1! Major Determinants and Influences of Travel Demand ........................................... 155!

6.2! Economic Performance ............................................................................................ 158!


How Germans Will Travel 2015 v

6.2.1! Unemployment .................................................................................................. 162!

6.2.2! Exchange Rates ................................................................................................ 163!

6.3! Why Forecast........................................................................................................... 167!

6.4! Forecasting Methodology......................................................................................... 167!

6.5! Data and Data Limitations........................................................................................ 169!

6.6! Forecast of German Outbound Travel Demand ...................................................... 171!

6.7! Destination Forecasting ............................................................................................ 175!

6.7.1 Destination Spain............................................................................................... 175!

6.7.2! Destination Austria ............................................................................................ 177!

6.7.3! Destination USA................................................................................................ 179!

6.7.4! Destination Singapore ....................................................................................... 181!

6.7.5! Destination South Africa ................................................................................... 183!

6.7.6! Destination Dominican Republic ...................................................................... 185!

6.8! Destination Trends to 2015 ...................................................................................... 187!

6.9! Regional Growth ...................................................................................................... 189!

7. Travel Business in Germany...........................................................................................193!

7.1! Aviation Industry...................................................................................................... 193!

7.1.1! Airports.............................................................................................................. 193!

7.1.2! Airlines .............................................................................................................. 195!

7.1.3! Low Cost Carriers.............................................................................................. 201!

7.1.4! Impact of High Fuel Costs on Airlines.............................................................. 201!

7.2! Tour Operators.......................................................................................................... 202!

7.2.1! Emerging Trends in the Dynamic Packaging Sector......................................... 206!

7.3! Travel Agents ........................................................................................................... 207!

7.3.1! Wholesale Operator Services ............................................................................ 208!

7.4! Industry Structure ..................................................................................................... 209!

7.5! Cruise Business ........................................................................................................ 210!

7.6! Use of Technology ................................................................................................... 211!

8. Austria ..............................................................................................................................219!

8.1! Austrian Outbound Travel ........................................................................................ 219!

8.2! Age of the Travellers ................................................................................................ 225!

8.3! Travel Destination .................................................................................................... 225!

8.4! Type of Holiday........................................................................................................ 227!

8.5! Quality Standards for Austrian Tourists................................................................... 228!

8.6! Type of Accommodation.......................................................................................... 229!

8.7! Type of Transportation ............................................................................................. 230!

8.8! Type of Holiday Organisation .................................................................................. 231!

9. Switzerland.......................................................................................................................233!

9.1! Growth Potential....................................................................................................... 233!

9.2! Number of Trips per Year ........................................................................................ 234!

9.3! Socio-demographic and Areal Influences ................................................................ 235!

9.3.1! Income ............................................................................................................... 235!


vi

9.3.2! Travel Spending................................................................................................. 236!

9.3.3! Age .................................................................................................................... 237!

9.4! Type of Travel .......................................................................................................... 238!

9.5! Purpose of Travel ..................................................................................................... 239!

9.6! Time and Duration of Travel .................................................................................... 240!

9.7! Time of Booking....................................................................................................... 241!

9.8! Means of Travel........................................................................................................ 242!

9.9! Travel Organisation .................................................................................................. 243!

9.10! Type of Accommodation........................................................................................ 245!

9.11! Airline Selection..................................................................................................... 246!

9.12! Tour Operator Services........................................................................................... 247!

10. Legal Hazards ................................................................................................................249!

11. German Customs and Etiquette – What you Need to Know .....................................261!

12. German Travel Trade Vocabulary ..............................................................................267!

13. Guide to Further Sources .............................................................................................277!

how the germans will travel 2015

Documents

tourism year

tourism policy

travel tourisms

world travel

international copyright

consultancy company

innovative solutions

copyright conditions