how the uk will embrace battery technologykeyn… · battery costs around 3-5x current powertrain...
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How the UK will EmbraceBattery Technology
UKPDiM18, MTC AnstyJune 2018
Prof. David Greenwood
Advanced Propulsion Systems
WMG, The University of Warwick [email protected]
Drivers for Electrification in Automotive
Electrification
Climate Change &Air Quality
Industrial Opportunity
$
Energy Security
Source:Cornell University from Edwards 2001
Consumer demandSource:Adweek
©2018
Powertrain roadmap for cars is well understood by manufacturers
Degrees of Electrification
Conventional
Mild Hybrid
Full Hybrid
PHEV
EV
Engine Motor
REEV
“Battery”
100kWFull transient
Starter motorStop/start
12V3kW, 1kWh
90-100kWFull transient
3-13kWTorque boost / re-gen
12-48V5-15kW, 1kWh
60-80kWLess transient
20-40kWLimited EV mode
100-300V20-40kW, 2kWh
40-60kWLess transient
40-60kWStronger EV mode
300-600V40-60kW, 5-20kWh
30-50kWNo transient
100kWFull EV mode
300-600V100kW, 10-30kWh
No Engine 100kWFull EV mode
300-600V100kW, 20-60kWh
©2018
Power / Energy ratio dictates the battery technology
Pack Capacity (kWh)
Pa
ck
Po
we
r(k
W)
EV power / energy ratio will increase as rangebecomes more rational and performance improves
Chart Legend:
MHEV: Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicle
HEV: Hybrid Electric Vehicle
PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
EV: (Pure) Electric Vehicle
A C-rate is a measure of the rate at which a battery is discharged relative to its maximum capacity. A 1C rate meansthat the discharge current will discharge the entire battery in 1 hour.
©2018
Battery is the defining component of an electrified vehicle
PowerRange
Cost
Life
Ride andHandling
Package
©2018
Biggest challenge for commercialization is battery cost
©2018
Lithium Ion batteries are improving rapidlyCosts have fallen dramatically due totechnology, production volume andmarket dynamics
Pack cost fallen from $1,000/kWh to<$250/kWh in less than 8 years
Nykvist et al 2014
Volumetric energy density is increasingdue to better materials and cell structure
Doubled in 15 years
Requires continued innovation tocontinue
©2018
Plug-In Vehicle sales in Europe 2016
©2018
Batteries are a major commercial opportunity
Conventional Vehicle
One third of conventional vehicle cost is powertrain
UK manufactures 1.7M cars per year, EU makes 18M per year
Assuming constant volumes and average battery pack cost of £6000 car, and 50% EV/PHEV share by 2035
This represents a UK supply chain opportunity of >£5bn/year by 2035
EU supply chain opportunity of over £50bn/yr at 2035
Rate of EV/PHEV market growth determined by customer uptake
Uptake will be determined by vehicle cost, range, charging infrastructure and fiscal regime
Electric Vehicle
Motor and power electronics cost around60% of conventional powertrain
Battery costs around 3-5x currentpowertrain
Rest of vehicle costs similar as before –increased costs for HVAC, brakes andsuspension systems
Battery is >50% of overall vehicle value
£
Report Ref: p.1; p.9 ©2018
Automotive direction of travel – 20 years ?
Cost
Now $130/kWh (cell)$280/kWh (pack)
2035 $50/kWh (cell)$100/kWh (pack)
Energy Density
Now 700Wh/l,250Wh/kg (cell)
2035 1400Wh/l,500Wh/kg (cell)
Power Density
Now 3 kW/kg (pack)
2035 12 kW/kg (pack)
Safety
2035 eliminate thermalrunaway at pack level toreduce pack complexity
1st Life
Now 8 years (pack)
2035 15 years (pack)
Temperature
Now -20° to +60°C (cell)
2035 -40° to +80°C (cell)
Predictability
2035 full predictivemodels for performance
and aging of battery
Recyclability
Now 10-50% (pack)
2035 95% (pack)©2018
ElectrochemistryElectrode,
electrolyte,separator, binder
Cell Pack & BMSApplication(Vehicle /
Automotive Battery Supply Chain
High Vol OEM
Tier 1 Low Vol OEMMaterials supplier (e.g. JM)
Cell Supplier (e.g. Panasonic)
2nd life /Recycling
Recycler
2nd User ?
Industrial Chemists (e.g. 3M)
©2018
Why in the UK ?
©2018
International competition to secure this supply chain is strong, and the UK hascapability which can grow to play a leading role:
• Sunderland is currently the EU’s only operational automotive battery factory
• Profitable car industry with vehicle assembly in UK and plans to build more EVand PHEVs
• A quarter of EU’s low emission vehicles are currently manufactured in the UK
• UK academic base and scientific infrastructure is world class• UK invented Li-Co battery
• Supply chain companies exist which could support industry growth• includes chemical industry and SMEs as well as traditional auto suppliers
• Strong relationships between companies and with government
But this is a highly competitive landscape, and co-ordinated action is required
• Skills, Technology, Manufacturing, Logistics, Infrastructure
• Action on supply side and demand side requires temporal alignment to optimiseROI
Possible UK Industry Engagement for AutomotiveBatteries
Raw MaterialsMaterials and
Electrochemistry
Electrode,electrolyte,
separator, etc.Cell Manufacture
Module,Pack and BMS
Vehicle Application2nd life /
Recycling
UK does not havemineral resources tosupport mining andrefinement of rawmaterials.
No import challenges.
Abundance of rawmaterials is not a majorconcern.
Infrastructure to mineand refine may notgrow fast enough.
Contribution of recycledmaterials in the future
UK academia and spin-outcompanies developmaterials for future.
Industrial chemicalscompanies (e.g. JM, BASF,3M) could produce powdermaterials in the UK fromimported raw materials.
Latent capability identifiedin adjacent sectors, e.g.paints, water treatment.
Alternatively, could beimported without difficulty.
Large companies (e.g. JM,Nissan) could producecoated electrodes,electrolytes andseparators in the UK
JV’s between OEMs andexisting overseasmanufacturers possible
Manufacturing processequipment can bedeveloped in the UK.
Comprises 50% of cell costand significant IP value.Best co-developed withcells
Alternatively, could beimported but have shelflife and transport issues.
Large scale cell assemblycompanies located inthe UK.Fastest achievedthrough foreign directinvestment/capability ?
Will be driven by UKdemand, and commoncell formats would easebusiness case
Possible route throughcollaborations betweenUK OEMs?
UK manufactured cellscould be export to EU.
Cells could be importedfrom Asia but with longlead time and transportissues, and maybe notlatest technology
Passenger car OEMs inUK could manufacturemodules and packs line-side to support vehiclesassembled in the UK.
UK based Tier 1 supplychain required tosupport lower volumeapplications (CV, OHV,taxi, etc.)
Alternatively modulesand/or packs can beimported but withsignificant logistics andcost impact.
Would increaselikelihood of cellassembly in UK.
High volume: vehicle andpack assembly highlylikely to be co-located.
Keep batteries, keepvehicle assembly. Losebatteries, possibly losevehicle assembly. Cellassembly investmentlikely to pivot on moduleand pack assemblylocations.
Manufacturing scale uprepresents a technicaland commercial risk.
End of life batterydisposal recognised assignificant economic andenvironmental concern.
2nd Life applicationsdemonstrated technicallybut commercial modelsuncertain.
Technologies lacking forlarge scale recycling andmaterials recovery.
Scarce and valuablematerials in particularrequire attention (rareearths, cobalt, etc.)
Report Ref: p.9-10 ©2018
Faraday Challenge announced 21 April 2017
Report Ref: p.11
• The first 3 areas set to receive investmentthrough the fund – healthcare andmedicine, clean and flexible energy, androbotics and artificial intelligence – wereannounced at the 2017 Spring Budget. TheBusiness Secretary has today confirmed thetotal investment in each field (subject tobusiness case approval):
• Clean and flexible energy or the ‘FaradayChallenge’: an investment of £246 millionover 4 years to help UK businesses seizethe opportunities presented by thetransition to a low carbon economy, toensure the UK leads the world in thedesign, development and manufacture ofbatteries for the electrification of vehicles
• Through the ISCF, government will bringtogether the UK’s world leading researchwith the ambitions of business to meetthese challenges head-on. The fundingallocations announced today are designedto help deliver a step-change in the UK’sability to turn strengths in research intocommercialised products.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/business-secretary-announces-industrial-strategy-challenge-fund-investments ©2018
Joined up approach developed with strong delivery focus
RESEARCHFaraday Institution
(EPSRC) £78M yrs 1-4
Application inspired fundamental research.Managed programme of large academic
collaborations with active project management andIP management
DEVELOPMENTInnovate UK£88M yrs 1-4
Dedicated I-UK CR&D Platform.Catapult investment to support facilities.
Additional to existing mechanisms
SCALE-UPAdvanced Propulsion Centre
£80MUK Battery Industrialisation Centre
+ APCX Calls for manufacturer-led projects.
INDUSTRIALISATION BEISExisting mechanisms for infrastructure and co-
ordination (RGF, LEPs, DiT…)
Challenges set and renewedby Faraday Challenge Board
BA
TT
ER
YC
HA
LL
EN
GE
S
Materials andElectrochemistry
Electrode,electrolyte,separator,
binder
CellModule,
Pack & BMSVehicle
Application2nd Life /Recycling
Advisory Group(Auto, Energy, Transport Industrial)
Programme Management Board(Funders – EPSRC, IUK, APC)
Faraday Battery Challenge
Steps in Cell Development
Gramme Scale
Typically university scale researchusing small quantities of hand-madematerials
Used for fundamental materialsresearch and initial half-cellexperiments at coin cell scale
Funders typically EPSRC, FaradayInstitution
E.g. Oxford, UCL, Imperial, WMG
Kilotonne Scale
Full scale, high volumemanufacturing plant. Typically 6-50GWh/year
Used to deliver very large volumesof cells with no variation orflexibility to chemistry, format orquality. Cost/kWh and processconsistency are critical
E.g. Tesla Gigafactory, LG Cheongju,Panasonic Osaka, Samsung Ulsan
Tonne Scale
Typically full scale manufacturingfacilities used at low rate. Expensive,inflexible, and impossible to accessexcept by owner. UKBIC providesbespoke facility for this purpose.
Used to develop and prove materials,cell design, manufacturing processesand parameters “at-rate” prior to fullplant investment
E.g. No public facility in UK or EU
Kilogramme Scale
Typically corporate R&D lab orUniversity / Catapult centre
Used to demonstrate scalability ofmaterials to full size cell, and todevelop electrode mixtures,deposition processes and cellformats.
Funders typically Innovate UK,EPSRC, Faraday Institution
E.g. WMG, QinetiQ
UKBIC
©2018
Schematic layout – prototype plantUKBIC: Schematic
©2018
Opens 2020
©2018
Summary:
©2018
• UK Automotive Industry and Government are strongly aligned around needand opportunity for batteries
• Joined-up mechanism and appropriate resources committed to make this real
• Policy to action in less than 12 months. Programmes well underway on allfronts
• New industry sectors now engaging:
• Chemical
• Aviation
• Electricity distribution
Image source: 20-FIA-Formula E.jpg, FIA
• The race is on, and we’ve started well…
Thank you
Prof. David Greenwood
Advanced Propulsion Systems
WMG, The University of Warwick [email protected]