how to estimate parameters? how to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/ap12.pdf ·...

54
How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test the model?

Upload: vunhan

Post on 17-Feb-2018

241 views

Category:

Documents


5 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

How to estimate parameters?How to calculate standard errors of the estimated parameters?How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors?How to test the model?

Page 2: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Chapter12 Regression-based Tests of linear Factor Models

Time-Series RegressionsCross-Sectional RegressionsFama-MacBeth Procedure

Page 3: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Data structureN Assets , T moments

,1 ,1 ,1 ,11 2 1

,2 ,2 ,2 ,21 2 1

, 1 , 1 , 1 , 11 2 1

, , , 1 ,1 2 1

e e e eT T

e e e eT T

e N e N e N e NT T

e N e N e N e NT T

R R R RR R R R

R R R RR R R R

− − − −−

−−

⎡ ⎤⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥⎣ ⎦

eitR

Page 4: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

12.1 Time-Series Regressions

Express the asset pricing model as:

The Betas are defined by regression coefficients:

(12.1)In the model, the factor is an excess return, the test assets are all excess returns

e i it i i t tR fα β ε= + +

( )e iiE R β λ=

Page 5: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

The model states:(12.2)

since the factor is also an excess return,

Comparing (12.2)(12.1),are equal to the pricing errors

( ) ( )eiiE R E fβ=

( ) 1E f λ= ×

( ) ( )eit i i tE R E fα β= +

Page 6: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Black,Jensen and Scholes(1972) suggested: Run time-series regression

1.Estimate the factor risk premium,

2. Run time-series regression for each test asset

3. Use standard OLS formulas for a distribution theory of the parameters, t test

( )1

1 T

T tt

E f fT

λ∧

=

= = ∑

, 1, 2 , ,e i it i i t tR f i Nα β ε= + + =

Page 7: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

4. Jointly test the pricing errorsAssuming , no autocorrelation, homoskedastic ,

test:

(12.3)

is the residual covariance matrix , I.e., the sample estimate of

( ) 0i jt tE ε ε ≠

( ) ( )2, 0, 0i it t i t t jE E jε ε σ ε ε −= = ≠

( )( )

121

T 2ET 1 + ' N

f

fα α χ

σ

−∧ ∧ ∧

⎡ ⎤⎛ ⎞⎢ ⎥⎜ ⎟ ∑⎢ ⎥⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎢ ⎥⎝ ⎠⎣ ⎦

( )'t tE ε ε = ∑

Page 8: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

F test for finite-sample: ( are normal)

(12.4)

This is Gibbons, Ross and Shanken (1989) or “GRS” test statistic. This distribution is exact in a finite sample

( )( )

12' 1

T, 1

ET-N-1 1+N N T N

fF

fα α

σ

−∧ ∧ ∧

− −∧

⎡ ⎤⎛ ⎞⎢ ⎥⎜ ⎟ ∑⎢ ⎥⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎢ ⎥⎝ ⎠⎣ ⎦

∼ε

Page 9: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

The test can also be interpreted as a test whether f is ex ante mean-variance efficient after accounting for sampling error.

( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( )

22

2

/ /1

1 /

q q T

T

E f fT N

NE f f

μ σ σ

σ

⎛ ⎞− ⎜ ⎟− − ⎝ ⎠⎛ ⎞+ ⎜ ⎟⎝ ⎠

Page 10: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Multi-factors:The regression equation is :

The asset pricing model is :

Assuming normal I.I.d. errors , the test is :

'ei ii i t tR fα β ε= + +

( ) ( )'eiiE R E fβ=

( ) ( )11 ' 1

',1 T T N T N K

T N K E f E f FN

α α−− −∧ ∧ ∧ ∧

− −

⎛ ⎞− −+ Ω ∑⎜ ⎟

⎝ ⎠∼

Page 11: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Derivation of The Chi Statistic and Distributions with General Errors

Derive (12.3) as an instant of GMMWrite the equations for all N assets together in vector from:

Use the usual OLS moments:

et t tR fα β ε= + +

( )( )( )

0[ ]

eT t t t

T Tet tT t t t

E R fg b E

fE R f f

α β εεα β

⎡ ⎤− − ⎛ ⎞⎡ ⎤⎢ ⎥= = =⎜ ⎟⎢ ⎥⎜ ⎟⎢ ⎥− − ⎣ ⎦⎝ ⎠⎣ ⎦

Page 12: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Exactly identify, so the matrix inis identity matrix, GMM estimate is : (OLS estimate)

a 0Ta g b∧⎛ ⎞⋅ =⎜ ⎟⎝ ⎠

a I=

( ) ( )

( )( )( )( )

( )( )

,

cov ,

var

eT t T t

e e eT t T t t T t t

T tT t T t t

E R E f

E R E R f R f

fE f E f f

α β

β

∧ ∧

= −

⎡ ⎤−⎣ ⎦= =⎡ ⎤−⎣ ⎦

Page 13: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

The matrix is :

The S matrix is :

d

( ) ( )( ) ( )

( )( ) ( )2 2

1

'N N t tT

NN t N t t t

I I E f E fg bd I

b I E f I E f E f E f

⎡ ⎤ ⎡ ⎤∂= =− =− ⊗⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥

∂ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥⎣ ⎦ ⎣ ⎦

( ) ( )( ) ( )

' '

' '

t t j t t j t j

j t t t j t t t j t j

E E fS

E f E f f

ε ε ε ε

ε ε ε ε

∞ − − −

=−∞ − − −

⎡ ⎤⎢ ⎥=⎢ ⎥⎣ ⎦

Page 14: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Using the GMM variance formula with a=I:

(11.4)So:

(12.7)1 1 '1v a r d S dT

α

β

− −∧

⎛ ⎞⎡ ⎤⎜ ⎟⎢ ⎥ =⎜ ⎟⎢ ⎥⎜ ⎟⎢ ⎥⎣ ⎦⎝ ⎠

( ) ( )1 11var ' 'b ad aSa adT

∧ − −⎛ ⎞ =⎜ ⎟⎝ ⎠

Page 15: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Get the standard formulas by assuming:

1. The errors are uncorrelated over time and homoskedastic

2. The factor and error are independent as well as orthogonal (multi-factors)

[ ] [ ] [ ][ ]2 2

' '

' '

E f E f E

E f E f E

ε ε ε ε

ε ε ε ε

=

⎡ ⎤ ⎡ ⎤=⎣ ⎦ ⎣ ⎦

Page 16: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Then the S matrix simplifies to :

Plug into (12.7), we obtain:

( ) ( ) ( )( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

( )( ) ( )2 2

' ' 1

' 't t t t t t

t t t t t t t t

E E E f E fS

E f E E E f E f E f

ε ε ε ε

ε ε ε ε

⎡ ⎤ ⎡ ⎤= = ⊗∑⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥⎣ ⎦ ⎣ ⎦

( )( ) ( )

( )( ) ( )( )

1

2

2

11v a r

1 1v a rv a r 1

t

t t

t t

t

E f

T E f E f

E f E fT f E f

α

β

α

β

∧ −

⎛ ⎞⎡ ⎤ ⎛ ⎞⎡ ⎤⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟⎢ ⎥ = ⊗ ∑⎢ ⎥⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟⎢ ⎥ ⎜ ⎟⎢ ⎥⎜ ⎟ ⎣ ⎦⎢ ⎥ ⎝ ⎠⎣ ⎦⎝ ⎠⎛ ⎞⎡ ⎤ ⎛ ⎞⎡ ⎤−⎜ ⎟⎢ ⎥ ⎜ ⎟= ⎢ ⎥ ⊗ ∑⎜ ⎟⎢ ⎥ ⎜ ⎟−⎢ ⎥⎜ ⎟ ⎣ ⎦⎝ ⎠⎢ ⎥⎣ ⎦⎝ ⎠

Page 17: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

The variance of is :

This is the tradition formula (12.3)By simply calculating (12.7), we can easily construct standard errors and test statistic that do not requires these assumptions.

α∧

( )( )

21var 1

varE f

T fα∧ ⎛ ⎞⎛ ⎞ ⎜ ⎟= + ∑⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟⎝ ⎠ ⎝ ⎠

Page 18: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

12.2 Cross-Sectional Regressions

Start with the K factor model,

The center economics question is why average returns vary across assetsThe model says that average returns should be proportional to betas. ( Figure 12.1)

( ) ' , 1, 2, ,eiiE R i Nβ λ= =

Page 19: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test
Page 20: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Run a two-pass regression

First, find from time-series regressions

Then, estimate from cross-sectional regression.

pricing errors are

β∧

' , 1,2, ,ei it i i t tR a f t Tβ ε= + + =

( ) ' , 1, 2, ,eiT i iE R i Nβ λ α= + =

λ∧

iα∧

Page 21: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

OLS Cross-Sectional Regression

The OLS cross-sectional estimates are:

(12.11)Assuming the true errors are I.I.d. over time and independent of the factors.

(12.12)(12.13)

( ) ( )

( )

1' ' eT

eT

E R

E R

λ β β β

α λ β

∧ −

∧∧

=

= −

( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( )

1 12

1 1

1' ' '

1cov ( ' ') ( ' ')

TI I

T

σ λ β β β β β β

α β β β β β β β β

∧ − −

∧ − −

= ∑

= − ∑ −

Page 22: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Since,( ) ( )

( )

1

1 11

1 21 1

11

1

1' ( (

1 1(

T

tt T T

NN t t

t tT

N Nt

t

t

Nt t

Nt

E E ET

ET T

εα

αα α α ε εα

ε

ε

ε ε

ε

=

= =

=

⎛ ⎞⎟⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎜⎛ ⎞ ⎟⎜⎟ ⎟⎜ ⎜⎟ ⎟⎜ ⎛ ⎞⎟ ⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎟ ⎜⎜ ⎟⎜= = ⎟⎟ ⎟⎜⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ ⎟ ⎟⎜⎜ ⎜⎜ ⎝ ⎠⎟ ⎟⎜⎜ ⎟ ⎟⎜⎟⎜ ⎟⎟⎜ ⎜⎝ ⎠ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎟⎜ ⎟⎜⎝ ⎠⎟⎜⎛ ⎞⎟⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎜= = ∑⎟⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎟⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎟⎜⎜⎝ ⎠⎟

∑∑ ∑

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( )( ) ( ) ( )

1 12

1 1

1 1

' ' cov[ ] '

' ' cov[ ' ] '' ' ' '

eTE R

E

σ λ β β β β β β

β β β β λ α β β ββ β β αα β β β

∧ − −

− −

− −

=

= +=

Page 23: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

The test statistic is :(12.14)

The degree of freedom is N-1 not N, and N-K for K-factors model

A test of residuals is unusual in OLS regressions.

1 21' cov( ) Nα α α χ

∧ ∧ ∧−−∼

Page 24: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

GLS Cross-Sectional Regression

Since as the error covariance matrix ,GLS estimates are:

The variance of these estimates are:(12.15)

(12.16)

( ) ( )

( )

11 1' ' ,eT

eT

E R

E R

λ β β β

α λ β

∧ −− −

∧∧

= ∑ ∑

= −

( ) ( )

( ) ( )

12 1

1 1

1' ,

1cov ( ' ) ' .

T

T

σ λ β β

α β β β β

∧ −−

∧ − −

= ∑

= ∑− ∑

[ ] 1'ET

αα = Σ

Page 25: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

A GLS regression can be understand as a transformation of the space of returnsThe test statistic for the pricing errors

(12.17)1 21' NT α α χ

∧ ∧−−∑ ∼

Page 26: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Correction for the fact that are estimated

Since the betas are estimated, the asymptotic standards errors should be corrected (Shanken 1992)

(12.18)Compare to (12.12)(12.15)

β

( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( )

1 12 1

12 1 1

1[ ' ' ' (1 ' ) ]

1[ ' (1 ' ) ]

OLS f f

GLS f f

T

T

σ λ β β β β β β λ λ

σ λ β β λ λ

∧ − − −

∧ −− −

= ∑ + ∑ +∑

= ∑ + ∑ +∑

Page 27: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

The asymptotic covariance matrix of the pricing errors is :

(12.19)

( 12.20)The test statistic in GLS is :

( ) ( ) ( )

( )( ) ( )( )( )

1 1

1

11 1

1cov ( ' ') ( ' ')

1 '1

cov ' ' 1 '

OLS N N

f

GLS f

I IT

T

α β β β β β β β β

λ λ

α β β β β λ λ

∧ − −

−∧ − −

= − ∑ −

× + ∑

= ∑− ∑ + ∑

'1 1 2(1 ' ) GLS GLSf N KT λ λ α α χ∧ ∧− −

−+ ∑ ∑ ∼

Page 28: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

How important the corrections ? in CAPM , , so in annual data

It is too large to ignore,but in monthly interval

It makes little difference.

( )emE Rλ =

( ) ( )22 2/ 0.08 / 0.16 0.25emRλ σ ≈ =

( )2 2/ 0.25 /12 0.02emRλ σ ≈ ≈

Page 29: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

The additive term can be very important, given some assumption ,write (12.19)as follow

Even with N=1,most factor model have fairly high ,so

Typical assets numbers N=10 to 50even if the the Shanken correction can be

ignored , it should be included in

( ) ( ) ( )2 2 21 1[ ]fT N

σ λ σ ε σ∧

= +

2R( ) ( )2 2 fσ ε σ<

( )σ λ∧

Page 30: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Derivation and formulas that do not require I.I.d. errors

Derivation by GMM, map all effects into GMM framework. The moments are

It is overidentified, since N extra moment

( )( )( )( )

0[ ] 0

0

et te

T t t te

E R a fg b E R a f f

E R

ββ

βλ

⎡ ⎤ ⎡ ⎤− −⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥= − − =⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥−⎢ ⎥ ⎣ ⎦⎣ ⎦

Page 31: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

The ingredients of the recipe:the parameter vector is :

The a matrix is :The d matrix is

[ ]' ', ',b a β λ=2

'

NIa

γ

⎡ ⎤⎢ ⎥= ⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥⎣ ⎦

( )( )

( ) ( )20

0'

0

N N

TN N

N

I I E fg b

d I E f I E fb

Iλ β

⎡ ⎤− −⎢ ⎥∂ ⎢ ⎥

= = − −⎢ ⎥∂ ⎢ ⎥

⎢ ⎥− −⎢ ⎥⎣ ⎦

Page 32: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

The S matrix is:

Calculate the standard error formula (11.4)(11.5) (pricing errors is last N moment)

( ) ( )

( ) ( )

'

'

eet j t jt t

e et t t t j t j t je ejt t j

t t j

t t t j t j

t t t j t j

R a fR a fS E R a f f R a f f

R R

E f ff Ef f Ef

βββ β

βλ βλ

ε εε εβ ε β ε

− −∞

− − −=−∞

− −

− −

⎛ ⎞⎡ ⎤ ⎡ ⎤− − ⎟− −⎜ ⎟⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥⎜= − − − − ⎟⎜ ⎟⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟− −⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ⎟⎟⎜⎜ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥⎝ ⎠⎣ ⎦ ⎣ ⎦⎛ ⎡ ⎤⎡ ⎤⎜ ⎢ ⎥⎜ ⎢ ⎥

⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥= ⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥− + − +⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥⎣ ⎦⎝ ⎣ ⎦

j

=−∞

⎞⎟⎟⎟⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎟⎜ ⎟⎟⎜⎜ ⎠⎟

Page 33: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Recover classic formula (12.18) (12.19) (12.20) by adding assumption:

1.the errors are I.I.d. and independent of the factors

2.the factors are uncorrelated over timeThus:

( )

( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( )

2

2'

E f

S E f E f E f

E f fββ σ

⎡ ⎤∑ ∑ ∑⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥= ∑ ∑ ∑⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥∑ ∑ +∑⎢ ⎥⎣ ⎦

Page 34: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Plug into (11.4) get the (3,3) element

(11.4)Plug the items into (11.5) to get the sample distribution of the pricing errors

(11.5)

The result is the same as (12.20)

( ) ( ) ( )1 11var ' 'b ad aSa ad

T

∧ − −=

( ) ( )( ) ( )( )1 1[0, ']TTg b N I d ad a S I d ad a∧ − −→ − −

Page 35: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Once again, it is no need to make assumptions.It is quite easy to estimate an S matrix that does not impose the conditionsIf one is really interesting in efficiency, The GLS cross-sectional estimate should use the spectral density matrix as weighting matrix rather 1−∑

Page 36: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Time series vs. Cross Section

The time series requires factors that are also returns. So that you can estimate factor risk premia by The asset pricing model does predict a restrict in the time-series.If imposed , you can write time-series regression as

( )TE fλ∧=

( ) 'eiiE R β λ=

( )( )' ' , 1,2, ,ei it i i t tR f E f t Tβλ β ε= + − + =

Page 37: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

The intercept restriction is

The restriction makes sense. You can see how result in a zero interceptwithout an estimate of ,you can not

check this intercept restriction

( )( )'i ia E fβ λ= −

( )E fλ =λ

Page 38: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

When the factor is a return, so that we can compare the two methods:

1. The time-series regression describes the cross section of expected returns by drawing a line as in figure 12.1 that runs through the origin and through the factor

2. The OLS cross-sectional regression picks the slope and intercept to best fit the points

( ) 'eiT i iE R β λ α= +

Page 39: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

In including the factor as a test factor The GLS cross-sectional regression =the time-series regression

The time-series regression for is :

The residual covariance matrix of the returns is:

f0 1 0t tf f= + +

[ ]0

'0 1 0 0

eR a fE f f

β ⎡ ⎤∑⎛ ⎞⎡ ⎤− − ⎟⎜ ⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥ ⎟ =⎜ ⎟ ⎢ ⎥− −⎜⎢ ⎥ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎝ ⎠⎣ ⎦ ⎢ ⎥⎣ ⎦i

Page 40: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Since have 0 residual, GLS puts all its weight on that asset .

Therefore ,just as time-series regression.

The degree of freedom in test is N!Why ignore the pricing errors of the other

asset in estimating the factor risk premium?

f

( )TE fλ∧=

et t tR a fβ ε= + +

Page 41: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

12.3 Fama-MacBeth Procedure

Fama-MacBeth (1973) procedure:1. find beta estimates with a time-series

regression.2. Run a cross-sectional regression at

each time period:

for each time t

' , 1, 2, ,eit i t itR i Nβ λ α= + =

iβ∧

, ittλ α∧ ∧

Page 42: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

3. Estimate by:

4. Generate the sampling errors for these estimates:

5.when the time series is autocorrelated

, iλ α

1 1

1 1,

T T

i itt

t tT Tλ λ α α∧ ∧ ∧ ∧

= =

= =∑ ∑

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )2 2

2 22 2

1 1

1 1,

T T

i it it

t tT Tσ λ λ λ σ α α α

∧ ∧ ∧ ∧ ∧ ∧

= =

= − = −∑ ∑

( ) ( )2 1cov ,t t jT

jTσ λ λ λ

∞∧ ∧ ∧

=−∞

= ∑

Page 43: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

6. Testing whether all the pricing errors are jointly zero:

Write the parameters in vector from:

The test statistic is :

( )1

21

1

1cov ( )( ) '

T

t

tT

t t

t

T

T

α α

α α α α α

∧ ∧

=∧ ∧ ∧ ∧ ∧

=

=

= − −

( )1' 2

1cov Nα α α χ−∧ ∧ ∧

−∼

Page 44: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Fama-MacBeth in depth

Consider a regression:

Pooled time-series cross-section estimate: stack the i and t observations together and

estimate by OLS(contemporaneous correlation)In an expected return-beta asset pricing model,

the xit is the betai and beta is the lamda

' , 1,2, , 1,2, ,it it ity x i N t Nβ ε= + = =

β

Page 45: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Take time-series averages and run a pure cross-sectional regression:

Fama-MacBeth procedure: run a cross-sectional regression at each point in time. Then get the estimates.

( ) ( )' , 1,2, ,T it T it iE y E x u i Nβ= + =

( )1

21

1

1c o v ( ) ( ) '

T

tt

T

t tt

T

T

β β

β β β β β

∧ ∧

=∧ ∧ ∧ ∧ ∧

=

=

= − −

Page 46: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

proposition

If the variables do not vary over time,and if the errors are cross-sectionally correlated but not correlated over time, Then:

The Fama-MacBeth estimate =The pure cross-sectional OLS estimate =The pooled time-series cross-sectional OLS

estimateSo to the standard errors ,corrected for residual

correlation.None of them holds if the vary through time

itx

itx

Page 47: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Proof:Having assuming that the variable do

not vary over time, the regression is :

stack up the regressions in vector from:

The error assumptions mean

x'

it i ity x β ε= +

t ty xβ ε= +

( )'t tE ε ε = ∑

Page 48: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Pooled OLS: to run pooled OLS, stack up the time series and cross sections:

and then:

with

1 1

2 2

, ,

T T

y x

y xY X

y x

εε

ε

ε

⎡ ⎤ ⎡ ⎤ ⎡ ⎤⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥= = =⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥⎣ ⎦ ⎣ ⎦ ⎣ ⎦

Y Xβ ε= +

( )'E εε

⎡ ⎤∑⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥

=Ω= ⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥∑⎢ ⎥⎣ ⎦

Page 49: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

The estimate and its standard error are:

Simplified:

Estimate this sampling variance with

( )

( ) ( ) ( )

1

1 1

' '

c o v ' ' '

O L S

O L S

X X X Y

X X X X X X

β

β

∧ −

∧ − −

=

= Ω

( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( )

1

1 1

' '1

cov ' ' '

OLS T t

OLS

x x x E y

x x x x x xT

β

β

∧ −

∧ − −

=

= ∑

( )' ,t t t OLST tE y xε ε ε β∧ ∧∧ ∧ ∧∑ = ≡ −

Page 50: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Pure cross-section: take the time-series averages,

Having assumed I.I.d. errors ,so

the cross-sectional estimate and standard errors are:

( ) ( )( ) 1'T t T tE E E

Tε ε = ∑

( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( )

1

1 12

' '1' ' '

XS T t

XS

x x x E y

x x x x x xT

β

σ β

∧ −

∧ − −

=

= ∑

( ) ( )T y T tE y x Eβ ε= +

Page 51: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Fama-MacBeth: run cross-sectional regression at each moment in time

then the estimate is the average of the cross-sectional regression estimates,

the standard error is :

( ) 1' 't tx x x yβ∧ −=

( ) ( ) ( )1' 'FM tT T tE x x x E yβ β∧ ∧ −= =

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )1 11 1cov( ) cov ' ' cov 'FM tT T tx x x y x x x

T Tβ β∧ ∧ − −= =

Page 52: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

with

we have

and finally

End proof

tt FMy xβ ε∧

= +

( ) ( )cov , 't tT t Ty E ε ε∧∧ ∧

= = ∑

( ) ( ) ( )1 11cov ' ' 'FM x x x x x x

∧∧ − −= ∑

Page 53: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Varying

none of the three procedures are equal anymore, since it ignore the time-series variance in the an extreme example:

the grand OLS regression is :

x

itx

, 1,2, , , 1,2, ,it t ity x i N t Tα β ε= + + = =

( )2 2 2

1/t it t it t itit t i t iOLS

t t tit t t

x y x y x N y

x N x xβ∧

= = =∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑∑ ∑ ∑

( )Tx x E x= −

Page 54: How to estimate parameters? How to calculate standard ...efinance.org.cn/cn/ap/AP12.pdf · estimated parameters? How to calculate standard errors of the pricing errors? How to test

Advantage of Fama-MacBeth Method

Allows changing betas.The standard errors are easily to compute.Could be easily modified to consider the estimated beta, Shanken (1992).