how to get accurate forecasts for reducing weight...
TRANSCRIPT
How to Get Accurate Forecasts for Reducing Weight Limits
Wayne Schoonover – Mason CRC Manager/Director
Sean Thorpe – CTT Roadsoft Software Engineer
Agenda
• Thaw weakening
• Thawcaster origin
• Walk through
• Questions
Why Spring Load Restrictions?
Thaw Weakening!
Strength
Winter Summer FallSpring
RestrictLoad
From FHWA Guidelines for Spring Highway Use Restrictions
Terms
Freezing Index (FI)
Thawing Index (TI)
Thawing Index using Minnesota Method (TI*)
Start Counting FI
When to Put Restriction on
Table 2
Thawing Index(oF-days)
Pavement Structure
BST/Asphalt Concrete Thickness (inches)
Base CourseThickness (inches)
Should Level
Must Level
• Thin 2” or less 6” or less 10 40
• Thick Greater than 2” Greater than 6” 25 50
From FHWA Guidelines for Spring Highway Use Restrictions
When to Take Restrictions Off
Guidelines state when TI = 0.3 X FI
0.3 X FI is approximately when it is thawed
Start Counting TI
0.3 X FI
Is Not when it stops bleeding and settled back down!
Use visual judgement and experience
WEATHER FORECASTING:IN THE BEGINNING…
Origin
Program Overview
Data collection
Tools
User setup
Upcoming plans
How did LTAP get involved?
Thawcaster Basic
Historic data and forecasts
FI, TI, TI* web based tracking tool
Data stored in cloud
Desktop and mobile ready
Thawcaster Advanced
Worst case forecast scenarios
Forecast site error rates
Data exports for custom analysis
What Thawcaster does Not do
A perfect fit for all soil types
Replace engineering judgement
Replace experience
Thawcaster Potential Data Sources
Weather Underground
Weather Unlocked
NOAA
Forecast IO
Open Weather Map
APIXU
Thawcaster Data Collection
Data initially collected from a single provider
Eventually collected from multiple providers
Collected via weather web API
Stored in database
Tools
Thawcast
Historical annual Thawcast
Weather station error analysis
Thawcast
Thawcast Tracker
Historical Annual Thawcast
Weather Station Error Rate
Weather Station Error Rate
Weather Station Error Rate
User Setup
Station List
Station Map
Weather Stations
• Create account
• Request weather station by zip code
• Data will automatically be gathered using available data providers (initially a single provider)
Thawcaster Initial Release 2/20/17
• Request station by zip code
• Thawcast for current weather forecast
• FI/TI data for the current season
• Data export
• Add comments
Additional Release Plans
• Multiple data providers
• Editable Thawcast or making custom projections
• Annual historical Thawcast for years past
• Comprehensive weather station error analysis
