how to improve app business based on data?
TRANSCRIPT
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TURNING NUMBERS
INTO VALUEMARIUSZ GASIEWSKI MINSK 10.11.2016
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Proprietary + Confidential
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Proprietary + Confidential
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Proprietary + Confidential
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1USDVALUE
100,000DOWNLOADS
100,000USD
BLACK BOX[ INPUT ] [ OUTPUT ]
THE BLACK BOX METHOD
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AVERAGE?...
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Source: RadiumOne, January 2016
NOT ALL USERS ARE EQUALLY
15%
85%revenue
83%17%
users
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USERVALUE
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FOCUS ON CLTV INSTEAD OF CAC
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Source: http://blog.soom.la/2016/05/estimating-segment-ltv-segment.html
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CLTV = ARPU x
1+ (referral
value)Churn
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CHURN =
# of customers lost in a given period /
# of customers at start of period
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Source: http://mobiledevmemo.com/free-to-play-spreadsheet-revenue-model/
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CLTV ● ARPU● Lifetime (retention)● Referral value
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CAC● Installs● Uninstalls● Opens● Probability to
spend
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USERSEGMENTATION
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SEGMENTYOUR USERS
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SEGMENTYOUR USERS
WHO ARE YOU?
WHAT DO YOU DO?
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SEGMENTING
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SEGMENTING > UNDERSTANDING
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SEGMENTING > UNDERSTANDING > GOING BEYOND
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KEY LEARNINGS
1.LESS THAN 15% OF ALL USERS ARE OVER 45Y BUT THIS GROUP REPRESENTS CLOSE TO 30% MOST VALUABLE USERS.
2.MAJORITY OF ALL USERS ARE WOMEN BUT AMONGST THE MOST VALUABLE THE RATIO IS CLOSE TO 50/50.
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MAKING ACTIONABLE
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STEP #1 DEFINE LTV AND ITS KEY PREDICTORS
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WHAT WAS FACEBOOK’SKEY INDICATOR OF ENGAGED USER?
Source: http://genius.com/Chamath-palihapitiya-how-we-put-facebook-on-the-path-to-1-billion-users-annotated
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WHAT WAS FACEBOOK’SKEY INDICATOR OF ENGAGED USER?
ADDING 7 FRIENDS IN THE FIRST 10 DAYS
Source: http://genius.com/Chamath-palihapitiya-how-we-put-facebook-on-the-path-to-1-billion-users-annotated
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THE ‘AHA’ MOMENTS
FACEBOOK7 FRIENDS IN 10 DAYS
TWITTERFOLLOW 30 USERS
ZYNGACOME BACK AFTER 1
DAY
DROPBOXUPLOAD 1 FILE
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STEP #2 ESURE EVENT VARIETY & FREQUENCY
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2. ENSURE EVENT VARIETY & FREQUENCY
In-app events are the minimum
recommendation
Is the range of event/install ratio
these events should cover in the same
user funnel
Hits (≠ conversions) per day for all three events are a great
signal for frequency.
Is the number of events per funnel to
choose for predictive
optimization
3 50-5% 10k 1
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INCLUDE ONE INSTAL/FIRST OPEN
1.
2.Go to conversions Check the ‘include
in conversions’ column
Change in the conversion setting directly if not
Needs to say ‘Yes’ for one install/ first open for the
promoted app
1 1.2
2.1.3
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NOW EASIER THAN EVER
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ESPECIALLY WITH FIREBASE
Now optimizing for in-app events
GAME
join_grouplevel_uppost_scoreselect_contentspend_virtual_currencytutorial_begintutorial_completeunlock_achievement
RETAIL/ECOMMERCE
add_payment_infoview_itemview_item_listview_search_resultsecommerce_purchasepurchase_refundadd_to_cartbegin_checkoutadd_to_wishlistgenerate_lead
JOBS
add_payment_infoview_item_listview_search_resultsecommerce_purchasepurchase_refundadd_to_cartbegin_checkoutadd_to_wishlistgenerate_lead
EDUCATION
add_payment_infoview_item_listview_search_resultsecommerce_purchasepurchase_refundadd_to_cartbegin_checkoutadd_to_wishlistgenerate_lead
TRAVEL
add_payment_infoecommerce_purchasebegin_checkoutview_itemview_item_listview_search_resultsadd_to_cartsearchadd_to_wishlist
LOCAL DEALS
add_payment_infoview_item_listview_search_resultsecommerce_purchasepurchase_refundadd_to_cartbegin_checkoutadd_to_wishlistgenerate_lead
REAL ESTATE
add_payment_infoview_item_listview_search_resultsecommerce_purchasepurchase_refundadd_to_cartbegin_checkoutadd_to_wishlistgenerate_lead
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STEP #3 SEGMENT & PROMOTE IN A SCALABLE
WAY
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UNIVERSAL APP CAMPAIGNS
Discovering
Searching
Engaging
Surfing
Watching
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SETTING RIGHT BUDGET
Min 50x tCPIIdeally stay budget uncapped
By lowering bids
By smaller regional
targeting/ higher budgets
OR
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BIDDING 20% HIGHER FOR IN-APP EVENT
You bid tCPI and not tCPA!
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NO FREQUENT CHANGES
ForBudget Bids
Also: Don’t change in-app events
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STEP #4 LISTEN TO YOUR USER SEGMENTS
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DEVELOPERS TESTING FEATURES
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OPEN-BETA
Run an open-beta before launching publicly
● Test your app with real users, at scale
● Find product-market fit earlier
● Fine-tune game KPIs
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PRIVATE FEEDBACK
Run an open-beta before launching publicly
● Feedback is private
● Doesn’t affect app rating
● Feedback shown in the Play Console
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STEP #5 DESIGN FOR ENGAGEMENT AND SHARING
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PUSH NOTIFICATIONS
Bingo Stack
Bingo StackPlay now and receive $3 in free credits.
1:58 PM
Bingo StackPlay now and receive $3 in free credits.
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INVITES
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HAPPNMAKES ITHAPPEN
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STARTING POINT
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In-app event that matter: Sending a Charm
Shifting to value
“Universal App Campaigns helped us acquire users who got more out of our app. The proportion of these new users sending at least one charm was 18% higher than before the roll out. Universal App Campaigns made it easy to align our growth strategy with the metrics that our business cares about most.”
Estelle Schuster, Growth & Acquisition Specialist - Happn
Increase in registered users sending at least 1 charm
Up to
18%
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WHATABOUT YOU?
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NOTHING NEW...
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I KNOW IT...
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Sorry for drastic images ☺
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IT’S NOT ABOUTTHE LACK OF KNOWLEDGE
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IT’S NOT ABOUTTHE LACK OF KNOWLEDGE
IT’S ABOUT THE LACK OF ACTION
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TOMORROW NEXT WEEK NEXT MONTH
Review your cross-device data
from AdWords
Adjust learnings from them to your
strategyTest, analyze,
optimize
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QUESTIONS?
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APPENDIX
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Proprietary + Confidential
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Proprietary + ConfidentialGoing deeper
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Proprietary + ConfidentialNot obvious targeting (18-24)
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Proprietary + ConfidentialAttribution
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Proprietary + ConfidentialWhere is value?
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“Thanks to Firebase integration, we’ve eliminated discrepancies between our internal BI and attribution tool, so we’re more confident in our marketing spend.”
Hitwe meets itsgoal of optimaluser engagement with Firebase
- Ann LavrishevaPPC Manager, Hitwe
Goals•Understand user behavior
across different segments as a way to optimize engagement with target audiences
Approach•Use Firebase to analyze
performance of AdWords campaigns as well as user behavior
•Build audience lists based on data for optimized push-notification campaigns
Results•Successfully running campaigns
across channels based on Firebase data
•Improved, consistent engagement with audience via targeted push-notifications
•Simplified tracking management through Firebase’s single dashboard
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“Thanks to Firebase integration, we’ve eliminated discrepancies between our internal BI and attribution tool, so we’re more confident in our marketing spend.”
- Ann LavrishevaPPC Manager, Hitwe
Improved user engagement Via Targeted
Push-notifications
Simplified tracking
management through
Firebase’s single dashboard
Hitwe meets its goal of optimal user engagement with Firebase Successfully
running all campaigns based on
Firebase data
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Proprietary + Confidential
CLTV●ARPU●Lifetime (retention)●Referral value
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Proprietary + ConfidentialSegment or die
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Proprietary + Confidential
2. Segment or die
Segment or die
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Proprietary + Confidential
Google Confidential and Proprietary
Real segmentation
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Proprietary + Confidential
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Proprietary + Confidential
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Proprietary + Confidential
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Proprietary + Confidential
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Información confidencial propiedad de Google
Usage of Remote ConfigTake action using cloud platforms to maximise personalisation opportunity
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Proprietary + ConfidentialTesting case study
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Proprietary + Confidential
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Proprietary + Confidential
Source: https://splitforce.com/blog/case-study-growing-mobile-ebook-revenue-25-ab-testing/
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Proprietary + Confidential
Confidence level Margin of
Error90% 95% 99%
0.50% 36,995 36,995 62,4101% 6,719 9,513 16,3692% 1,689 2,395 4,1433% 751 1,066 1,8464% 423 600 1,0395% 271 384 665
Statistical significance
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Proprietary + Confidential
Upsell -> Increased revenue by 30%
Upsell
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Proprietary + Confidential
Increased revenue by 20%Personalisation and segmentation