how to increase penetration of renewables in energy system skopje 2016 duic
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DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Long term Development of the Energy Market in Macedonia and the Region, June, 2016, Skopje
How to increase penetration of
renewables in energy system
Prof.dr.sc. Neven Duić
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Power Engineering and Energy Management ChairDepartment of Energy, Power Engineering and EnvironmentFaculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture
University of Zagreb, Croatia
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
LCOE – various technologies
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
3
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
PV revolucija
Grid parity
reached in
102
countries
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
New installed and decommissioned power
capacity in EU, 2015 [MW], EWEA
Power sector developments
In and out …
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Power sector developments
Global installed generation capacity net change, 2015 [GW]Bloomberg New Energy Finance/UNEP Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2016
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Power sector developments
EU electricity generation installed capacity net change,
2000-2015 [MW], EWEA
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Denmark – 42%
Ireland, Portugal – 24%
Cape Verde, Spain – 20%
Nicaragua, Germany – 15% Costa Rica, Romania – 13%
Sweden – 12% Uruguay, EU – 10%
Estonia – 9% Lithuania, Greece, Poland – 7%
Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, Morocco, UK – 6%
Croatia, Cyprus, Honduras, India, Italy, N. Zealand, US – 5%
Australia, Bulgaria, Canada, China, France, Tunisia, Turkey,
World – 4%
Brazil, Chile, Finland – 3%
Dominican R, Hungary, Latvia, Lux., Macedonia, Norway,– 2%
Czechia, Japan, Mexico2014, Ukraine – 1%
hard
easy
Wind share in electricity demand 2015
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
PV revolution
Solar share in electricity demand 2015Greece, Italy – 8%
Germany – 7%
EU, Belgium, Bulgaria – 4%
Czech Rep., Romania, Spain – 3%
World, Denmark, Malta, Lux., Slovakia, Slovenia,
UK – 2%
Austria, Cyprus, France, Netherlands, Portugal,
US – 1%
Croatia, Hungary – 0.5%
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
How to increase penetration of renewables in energy system?• More grid capacity
• Cycling of thermal power plants
• Power exchanges
• Demand management and integration of power, heating, cooling, transport and water systems
• Energy storage
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Smoothing intermittency by geographical dispersion
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Baseload + wind
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Flexibility of conventional PP
Flexible generation: Backing up renewables, RESAP, EURELECTRIC, 2011
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Electricity price = marginal cost
Demand
Supply
HE NECoal
Import
Gas
Fuel oil
Marginal cost
Base load
Electricity market
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Demand
Supply
HE
NECoal
Imports
Gas
Fuel oil
Marginal cost
Base load –
windy night
Wind
Electricity price = marginal cost
Electricity market
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Nord pool spot
DK+EE+FI+LT+
LV+NO+SE
75% market
http://www.nordpoolspot.com/Market-data1/Maps/Elspot-
Market-Overview/Elspot-Prices
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Go-live!
NWE+CWE price
coupling on
February 4, 2014
75% of European
power marketES+PT connected in
May 2014
IT+SI connected in Feb
2015
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Wind and solar: Coal vs. gas?
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
A new coal power plant?
19
80
www.cropex.hr, 19.2.2016
New coal PP
500 MW * 8000 h * 50 EUR/MWh
= 200 MEUR/year subsidy
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Consequences of market liberalisation: Demission of base load
The importance of balancing power (gas, hydro)
Cycling of old coal power plants (4000 hours by 2020)
Market arbitrage (time delay, power-to-heat, power-to-water, e-mobility, demand management, power-to-efuels)
Markets and RES
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Power to heat
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Electromobility Only personal cars and short distance utility
vehicles, 430000 PHEV and BEV sold in 2015
If RESe 80% reduction of primary energy
Fast charging 70 kW – huge problem if left uncontrolled, ex AT, 4 mln cars arrives home, plugs in – 280 GW (14 GW installed cap)
Smart charging – market based, smoothing the demand
Demand management
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Smart charging
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
Wind and solar are coming, but difficult to integrate
Integration of power, heating, cooling, water and transport system necessary
Great time for engineers!
Natural gas and hydro critical for transition
Conclusions
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
PV: 65 GW
Wind: 50 GW
CSP: 11 GW
Dammed hydro: from 18.8 to 23.5 GW
Large-scale HPs: 1.5 GW
Solar thermal with energy storage in DH: 13.3 %
Seasonal thermal energy storage: 230 GWh
Waste incineration plants: 0.96 GWe
Geothermal plants: 1.25 GWe
Geothermal heating plants: 7.5 GW
River hydro, pumped-hydro 2 GW, 1000 GWh
Decommission of nuclear PPs
Reduction in thermal power plants capacity to 24.7 GW
Supply side 2050 – SEE 100% RESZero carbon energy system of South East Europe in
2050, D.F. Dominković, I. Bačeković, B. Ćosić, G.
Krajačić, T. Pukšec, N. Duić, N. Markovska, Applied
Energy, doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.03.046
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENT
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
Благодарам за вниманието!