David Perez

CMO

"Measuring the Mobile Lead"

Cross-Device Attribution and Determining ROI

#SMX @Convertro

97% 95%85%

78%71%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14

Mobile

Tablet

Desktop

Source: Same set of 50 Convertro ecommerce clients over 5 year period

eCommerce % Visits By Device

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eCommerce % Revenue by Device

71%15%

14%

Desktop

Mobile/TabletWeb

In-App

Source: Convertro eCommerce clients with & without iOS/Android Apps - using algorithmic attribution – Jan 2014

80%

20%

Revenue by Device – No Apps Revenue by Device – w/ Apps

#SMX @Convertro

Mobile, Tablet and Cross-Device Interactions

5.7 internet connected devices per U.S. HH according to

NPD (March 2013)

Convertro See 1.4 Devices Per Conversion (Jan 2014)

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Case Study: Cross-device tracking, Indochino

Problem: Unsure if mobile campaigns were producing

results

Result: Quantified how mobile campaigns were driving

desktop sales

1. Discovered that of multi-device users were

switching from mobile to desktop before converting

2. Optimized mobile based on overall results

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#SMX @Convertro

Tracking Cross Device

Email Address = The New Cookie…

User ID = The New Cookie

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Cross Device Tracking: 1st Party Data

1. Transaction – Get User ID

2. Login – Get User ID

3. ESP – Transactional Email – Get User ID

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Cross Device Tracking: 2nd Party Data

Convertro 2nd party client device mappings

DoubleClick Android + Gmail

Atlas Facebook

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Cross Device Tracking: 3rd Party Data

Cookie sync with 3rd party data providers that track

cross-device

• LiveRamp

• TapAd

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Holistic Attribution

• Need to track all channels, offline to online, for a holistic picture

of your marketing spend and conversion events

• Need transparency, verification and accuracy in order to take

control of your advertising performance

• Ability of tracking across devices is crucial for correct data

TV Radio Direct Mail Call

Centers

In-store

Purchases

Phone

Web/App

Tablet

Web/App

SocialEmailWebsite

#SMX @Convertro

Convertro Algorithm

10

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Exposure to Marketing

Pro

ba

bili

ty o

f C

on

ve

rsio

n

Logistic Function

Events

#SMX @Convertro

In Matrix Format (Example: Four Unique Paths)

Convs Total

10 1000

5 100

10 100

30 1000

Prob

Conv

1%

5%

10%

3%

Org. PPC TV Emai

l

Disp.

1 0 1 1 0

0 1 1 0 0

1 0 0 0 1

0 1 1 1 0

YConversion & Frequency

Counts of Paths X

=1

.10 .20 .30 .10 .30Resulting Weights

i

Convertro Algorithm

#SMX @Convertro

Advanced Modeling: Base / Lift

Measures true incremental lift of paid marketing on sales:1. Define a “base” probability of conversion (probability that a customer

who was not exposed to marketing converts)

2. Measure the revenue contribution of other marketing sources relative to

the base probability as “lifts” or “increments” above that base

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Advanced Modeling: Event Chaining

• Addresses repeat purchases and multiple steps in

conversion funnel

• Attribute preceding events

• First conversion gets credit for the next conversion

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Advanced Modeling: Source Decay• Estimate period over which source exposure effect

decays over time

• Plot for views shows that < 25% of conversions

occurred by end of 1 day

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Model Validation

• Randomly splitting user click trails into training and test sets (80/20 split)

• Train a set of models on the training set

• Then Run a prediction on the previously-unseen test sets (with the actual conversion events removed from the clicktrail).

#SMX @Convertro

Model validation and testing

TRUSTED BY:

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Apply Cost Data

"A lot of that is around being able to allocate our

spend where it's most effective.”

Attribution + Cost = ROI, CPA

#SMX @Convertro

Optimizing - Cross-Channel Allocations • Optimal spend against each marketing channel to maximize goal (e.g.

ROI)

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Optimizing - Sub-Channel Allocations

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Optimizing - Tactical Allocations

KEYWORDS

HIDDEN

#SMX @Convertro

Summary

• Mobile/Tablet Traffic & Conversions Growing

• 1.4 Devices Per Conversion

• Mobile is Top of Funnel – Not Last Click or Last

Device 85% of time

• Use 1st party, 2nd party and 3rd party data to sync

cross-device

• Use Algorithm to allocate credit based upon

influence on conversion

• Determine optimal spend allocations

#SMX @Convertro